The 1990s experiments are essentially as relevant now, as 1910s monoplane to 1940s jet fighter.
I can't help but note that your position is always "they do things different, then THEY MUST BE MISTAKEN".
In my opinion, it would be a useless waste of resources to try to destroy weapons that are very expensive to manufacture and maintain and that no leader will ever dare to shoot because they are only insurance to continue in power.
To be exact, such attack would be one of the few scenarios, where the leader in question would shoot them - since it would be "use it or lose it" scenario.
Its quite debatable, you know. China at least have workable civil defense & population is far more disciplined than American.
SDB likely don't have penetration power to reliably punch through silo hatch.
Please. Chinese ICBM's aren't you ancient Minuteman. You can't knock them out by attacking a few command bunkers. There are a lot of redundancy in the system.
Are you kidding? Or you really think that operation against Iran - preceeded by ten days of Israel bombing, that degraded the Iranian ari defense into nothing - would be relevant against peer opponent?
Blow with what? You have at most 15 B-2 bombers, most of which would likely not even reach the targets, since Chinese have stealth aircraft of their own & certainly already took measures to make their most important assets stealth-proof.
And now add a small detail; a Chinese air defenses sitting right next to ICBM field. Which would knock down many glide bombs during their approach run. And if bombers try to get close, they would lost their stealth capability & got immediately destroyed.
There are few scenarios in which a leader prefers annihilation to reforms and exile.
Was the blockade of Cuba an act of war against the USSR?
An amphibious force whose arrival the adversary has been waiting for fifty years would have very little chance of success against the latest generation of anti-ship weapons. In my opinion it could only survive under overwhelming local air superiority, which could only occur if the United States were embroiled in a serious war on the other side of the world or embroiled in serious internal problems.
If the invaded area is relatively small & could be attacked from several directions at once - which is why China is building LHD's, capable of landing invasion force on Taiwan from the east - the situation would change significantly.
Why does the maritime militia need to counter a harpoon? Who is launching these harpoons at the militia vessels?
If you’re basing this off of what they are doing, then an invasion of Taiwan discussion is pointless since they are not invading Taiwan.
How does local air superiority over Taiwan require the US be involved in a war elsewhere?
I maybe mistaken but off the top of my head there aren’t really any good landing zones on the east side of the island…
How were the defenders of Normandy ‘defeated in the east’?
Probably not much, but on the other hand - those areas are far worse defended. So even the relatively small force could create a lot of problems. Especially if it would be robotic-heavy force, designed mainly to cause damage & distraction.
I doubt that China would go straight to attacking cities. Bases and silos, sure.
For argument's sake, let's assume that 12x B-2s are available. (~67% availability). 16x B61 nukes per bird. 192 total weapons.
You're assuming that US bases don't have drone jammers installed.
192 nukes. Or we start dropping BLU110 (1000lb bunker busters) JDAMs. 80 per bird, directly on the silo door.
The penetration depth of frequencies of light in seawater has not changed.
Yes.
Which would kill several times more Americans than direct attacks against cities, due to attacks against silos being ground blasts.
Which can't be dropped in salvo - the first detonation would spoil the targeting for the rest. And multiple passes would clearly be out of question.
How many attack passes it would require? And how long bomber would survive in airspace near silo field?
But the signal procession improved greatly.
Fair point.
Sure they can, you spread the drops across targets spread far enough apart that any given detonation would be long enough ago to not interfere with the next closest silo attacks. Gotta love guided/glide bombs!
One pass per plane.
Doesn't matter if the laser doesn't get to the boat in the first place, or if the laser doesn't get back to the surface of the water after contacting a sub.
Or maybe they’re building towards invading some one else? Or maybe they’re building to rush reinforcements to the artificial islands they’re occupying.
I think the same too, but I think it would have been preferable if the Kennedy brothers had not read the book "The Guns of August" and sent the Marines to expel the Soviet technicians from the island. Cubans have suffered the consequences for far too long.
A significant part of the defenders of Normandy were Russian mercenaries, the weakness of the defenses was caused by the huge losses inflicted on the Germans by the Red Army in the east.
That is the same thing that Saddam thought before invading Kuwait, but since Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia there is an unwritten rule that consists of stopping the aggressor's, to prevent him from daring to continue invading other countries. This history lesson is very much alive in the consciousness of all Western leaders. The world cannot afford to happen again.
Does “the West” include the United States?That is the same thing that Saddam thought before invading Kuwait, but since Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia there is an unwritten rule that consists of stopping the aggressor's, to prevent him from daring to continue invading other countries. This history lesson is very much alive in the consciousness of all Western leaders. The world cannot afford to happen again.
Russians made up one-sixth of Seventh Army’s total number of men.
Again, how were these Russian mercenaries defeated in the east if they were manning defenses in the west?A significant part of the defenders of Normandy were Russian mercenaries, the weakness of the defenses was caused by the huge losses inflicted on the Germans by the Red Army in the east.
Are you seriously talking about paratroopers being transported by slow cargo planes and large helicopters?
That would mean total air dominance of airspace that could only have been obtained after a major air battle and a massive bombing campaign to destroy all anti-aircraft defenses and completely deplete the stocks of Stinger missiles.
Or a prior unconditional surrender obtained through nuclear or bacteriological blackmail, or a United States mired in civil war or governed by Woody Allen.
Really? Guess the last 4 US administrations haven’t been told about this rule considering all have overseen sending aid to Ukraine, without even contemplating sending troops to fight.That is the same thing that Saddam thought before invading Kuwait, but since Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia there is an unwritten rule that consists of stopping the aggressor's, to prevent him from daring to continue invading other countries. This history lesson is very much alive in the consciousness of all Western leaders. The world cannot afford to happen again.
You either are extremely ignorant about Chinese submarines or didn't bother to do research, they are absolutely investing in the modern submarines. The 095s should be under construction right now with initial pressure vessel segments spotted in 2022, some RUMINT suggests two are under construction, these should be no worse than the latest American/Russian SSNs/SSGNs. The 095 also seems to be roughly Seawolf sized rather than Virginia sized with a beam of ~12m and uses a single hulled design. 096s should be under development and might see the first hull launched late this decade. 093Bs exists and from what I heard should be no worse if not a bit better than 688is and they are launching 3 of these per year and that's not even full capacity of the yard which is expected to be achieved once 095's design is finalized.
I am also concerned about that, possibly some leaders think that the case of Ukraine should be considered a civil war rather than an invasion of a neighboring country.
I’ve never heard any one say that yet. Wouldn’t be surprised though.
They’ll be ready before the constitution is I bet.
The confidence in Kat's statements is probably calibrated a little too high, but there are vulnerabilities that the PLAAF and PLARF and their political superiors must consider in the event of a long war.
I'm not sure where people are even getting this 2027 date from, anyways by the end of the decade they'll have 23 093Bs and probably the first 2 095s in service assuming current construction rates which they have kept up for the past 3 years. If the new 095s are launched soon(aka next 1 to 2 years which is likely), verification of the design shouldn't take that long and assuming it checks out, mass production of the type by late this decade is possible and they could even ramp up to the full ~5 boat per year capacity they have at that yard. That's 25 boats in only 5 years and in ten they could easily match or exceed USN numbers if we include legacy submarines like the aforementioned 2 dozen 093Bs. That's not counting into PLAN's AIP submarines which they are also building 2-3 per year, right now PLAN has ~26 039A/B/C and could have up to 35-40 of the type by the end of the decade depending on specific construction rate.
Your also assuming PLA does not have any method to detect stealthy targets which is absolutely not true.
Erm, Chinese use dense pack system.
Wrong. The simplest defense is to have dense enough air defense perimeter that stealth could not sneak through it without coming close enough to radars to be detected. Look, stealth is not magical invisibility. It's merely a reduction of radar echo to the point when on given distance it would be too small to discriminate from background. But if stealth is forced to close with radar, it would eventually be detected, since echo from it would increase with distance decrease.
Spacing is reportedly 2-4 km, which, with superhard silos, is quite enough to prevent the enemy getting bonus kills with one nuclear warhead. Dense pack was IIRC much less than that to kill MIRVs by fratricide. It's not quite dense pack; MIRVs coming in won't kill each other.
