Yes, I saw this recent CBC news clip on YouTube
Any rumor about when the final selection is scheduled to be made?
Ottawa has come to agree with you, Rainbow1910. Do you have a preference between the German bid and Korea's?
A Naval News article posted recently had an interview with a Canadian Naval Officer who claimed the down select and contract negotiation within the next two years, although the down select happening now automatically speeds this timeline up. It very much seems that speed is of the essence here, and some rumours I've heard point towards the RFP being skipped and the Navy entering into direct negotiations with one of the two parties in 2026 potentially.
I will preface my opinion with the fact that both the German and Korean designs are very competently designed and constructed vessels by experienced partners, and I think either design will ultimately suit Canada's goals. All of the "bad" or "unsuitable" options have been eliminated and it comes down to tradeoffs between the remaining bids.
South Korea: KSS-III Batch II
South Korea has recently said that if the contract is awarded to them in 2026, they promise delivery of the first submarine to Canada by 2032. They specify three more submarines by 2035 and the entire hypothetical twelve submarine order by 2043. To say this is quick would be an understatement, it is frankly lightening fast and blows the German offering out of the water. The Korean offer would allow the RCN to retire the Victoria class by 2035, allowing us to scrap those ships and saving us potentially billions in operational/modernization costs. They have also signed countless memorandums with high profile Canadian companies for various bits of cooperation, and have pledged/discussed things like lithium battery production/maintenance, domestic production of Korean weapon systems with IP rights, access to Korean owned American shipyards for upkeep alongside Canadian yards and many more things.
The KSS-III design itself is pretty modern, tracing its legacy back to the German Type 209 and 214 class submarines which were licensed to Korea for further domestic design/construction. It has its German lineage, but the Korean's have done significant work to make the follow on KSS designs their own. Various domestic systems are integrated, alongside importing many top of the line sensor, CMS, etc systems into the design as well. The boats are large, featuring some of the most advanced lithium ion batteries in the world while also retaining AIP as well. Range is not an issue, with the boats designed for long range patrols throughout the Pacific Ocean. There is a substantial amount of Korean sourced equipment aboard, something like 80% it seems. 10 large VLS tubes aboard currently only house the Hyunmoo 4-4 conventional SLBM, but it is theorized they can retrofit anti-ship, land attack and even potentially unmanned systems into these in the future. VLS permits additional weaponry to be carried while keeping the torpedo magazine uncluttered for its primary purpose. They are stealthy, advanced and have a good standard of modern amenities for western crews.
Questions can be raised if these vessels are truly suited to Arctic/near Arctic operations though. There is also concerns about NATO/NORAD interoperability for sensor suites, CMS and other systems, although the Korean's apparently do build much of their equipment to meet or exceed NATO standards. Korean weapon systems would take us out of our comfort zone of American and European weapons, alongside the fact that Korea can be a bit politically unstable/will be ground zero for a conflict with China if it breaks out. The KSS-III Batch II boat is not entirely proven and still under construction, and deviates a fair bit from the Batch I which is in service currently. It is also questionable if the Korean K-VLS can accommodate foreign/other missile types besides the Hyunmoo 4-4 SLBM, which is a bit of a dubious purchase for Canada/sale from Korea.
Germany: Type 212CD (E?)
Germany has stated recently that they can promise delivery of the first submarine to Canada by 2034, with a second in 2036 and a third in 2037. The Germans are unable to deliver boats on anything approaching the same schedule as the Korean's due to the ongoing orders in their yards for their own Navy and that of Norway for the same Type 212CD design. Germany and Norway have 10 boats currently ordered, with an expected additional 5 boat order coming in the future. There is other multiple high profile nations who are looking at German submarines in the future like Poland, this will further affect Canadian order rate speed if they get ahead of us in line. Germany has been rather tight lipped about cooperation with Canada for domestic offsets, and has offered little to match what the South Korean's have done thus far.
As far as the Type 212CD design, we are unsure if the German's are offering the 212CD design or the enlarged 212CDE which was previously offered to Norway. The E variant is an extended with a 10m~ hull plug, providing an additional 500t~ to the design and is used to additional range and space within the design. The base and extended variants of the Type 212CD are smaller than their Korean counterpart, largely due to the inclusion of a 10 large diameter VLS cells. The German design is reported to be one of the most advanced conventional submarines in the world, and Germany has a substantial pedigree as cutting edge submarine designers and producers. A novel diamond shaped outer hull apparently provides a greater degree of stealth against active sonar use, and some other sensor packages. The sensor package on this design is also apparently the best in class, even considering SSN's of the UK, Russia and the US. Germany also has access to advanced weapon systems like the relatively new DM2A4 Hake torpedo, with a new advanced torpedo actively being designed jointly by Norway and themselves. A torpedo tube launched variant of the NSM is under consideration, which provides commonality with the RCN surface fleet.
Germany has some of the most advanced AIP in the world seemingly, although their lithium battery tech is behind the Korean's apparently. The range provided for the size of the boat and its crew is very impressive, to the point Norway and Germany expects to use them in the North as well. The Type 212CD design is also fully NATO compliant and having an agreement inked with Norway & Germany would provide Canada an easier avenue to cross train submariners in the future. There is also the political considerations with the current Liberals, who seem very excited to push Canada closer to Europe and especially with their defence industry. Going alongside multiple major NATO allies and European partners is a powerful message.
The German delivery timeline is very sub-par, to the point that it will force Canada to wait around in line and potentially fight with Germany/Norway to get priority in the production line. We will be forced to operate the Victoria class for longer, or be required to scrap them early and accept a capability gap within the RCN's submarine force. If there are any slipups or delays in the German production line, the effects will be much harsher on Canada than the Korean's. The German design lacks a VLS system, which concentrates any land attack or anti-ship weapons into the torpedo magazine. This takes up valuable space and can limit combat endurance/loadout variety. The Type 212CD and CDE are both unproven designs, heavily modified from the base Type 212 design. Similar to Korea in a way, Germany will be a major target of Russia in an escalation of a European conflict in the future. Even in peacetime, sabotage of NATO infrastructure including ships as been more and more common as of late.
My Opinion:
After everything I've seen and heard, I'm personally putting my favor behind the South Koreans. The German's have a seemingly awesome submarine itself, but their delivery timeline and crowded shipyards really fly in the face of the urgent need to replace our current submarines. The Korean design is very capable itself, to the point it seems entirely able to meet our requirements. With the proposed delivery timeline, the Korean option is very difficult to beat. Items like VLS on the design is a further sweetener, if they can be properly utilized.
Korea is also a potential major economic and military partner for Canada in the future, although the pivot to Europe might override any concerns had over the Germans with a political decision from upon high. It would not be the first time such things have happened.