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Some thoughts on this:Since ITTL the UK goes red circa 1958
- Nye Bevan wins the Labour leadership in 1955.
- A bigger Suez debacle discredits Eden to the extent that the government collapses entirely.
- Labour wins a 1957 General Election - my guess is the 21st of February - bringing Bevan in as Prime Minister.
- A rapid recovery from the 1958 recession is seen as vindiating Bevan's left-wing policies (it happened with moderate supply-side policies under Macmillan, I'd expect similar here) and strengthens the view that the UK could not be tied at the hip to the US.
- When Bevan dies circa 1960, Harold Wilson probably succeeds him as Prime Minister.
- With Bevanite policies, the UK is somewhat more insulated from the 1960-1961 US recession, and the taint against the Conservatives mean that support for the Liberals is higher. The Labour party therefore wins a general election in 1962, though with only a narrow majority.
- Stronger right-wing opposition does lead to an attempt to overthrow Wilson in 1965-1966, taking advantage of his apparent political weakness. Mountbatten, ever the pragmatist, sees that it would be disastrous and throws the conspirators under the bus.
- Mountbatten (and probably Solly Zuckerman) gain political capital, at the same time as a crackdown on the right-wing press - and by now some kind of political purge of Gaitskellites within the Labour party cements the Bevanite wing as dominant.
- A 1966 general election, at a time when the right wing looks really bad, gives Wilson an absolutely huge majority, with robust support for much more left-wing policies than in OTL - and the government certainly won't be looking to be dependent on the US for defence.
- Mountbatten gets reappointed as Chief of the Defence Staff in 1967, a role he'll retain for the rest of his life.
I'd guess that what happens is the nationalist wing becomes preeeminent in the IRA, whilst the left-wing elements form an early INLF and wither on the vine. They weren't especially strong after the first few years of the Troubles, and here they'll have weaker support both sides of the border.Since ITTL the UK goes red circa 1958, I assume the IRA would feel very much betrayed as a whole, and go full nationalist for at least some time.
A stronger IRA when the Troubles kick off, together with a UK government that's already feeling a bit paranoid from the Mountbatten plot, is likely to lead to the development of a bit of a police state in the early 1970s.