USN Missions around Taiwan

[chimeric oncogene]

Right now the USN can only meaningfully contribute to the joint battle using submarine forces and missiles like LRASM or CPS. In the future it may not contribute with submarine forces in the SCS, or it may only provide strategic nuclear capability with the SSBNs, depending on how developed the PLAN gets. It will still have a lot of horizontal escalation capability, that the PLAN will never be able to match because it lacks the global empire of the U.S., though.

With all due respect, I think you're putting too much trust and emphasis on less than 20 aircraft from the 1980s in a theoretical peer conflict where you have a, excuse my wording here, metric fuck ton of radars on the ground, air and sea, all operating at different levels, frequencies, bearings, power etc. etc.

I don't think your assessments are actually different; Kat has noted that attrition among the B-2 force headed into inner China is going to be quite ruinous.

The Chinese military can probably win a sustained air campaign over the homeland and a sustained naval campaign inshore; what it cannot defend against is an all-out well supported bomber raid against a relatively small target set.

Now of course I think I disagree with Kat as to the conventional balance and the degree to which the US can offset it in the medium term; as the decade passes, while American capabilities will come online, so will Chinese capabilities; US quantitative and qualitative improvements will be offset by Chinese, and ultimately the Chinese have a large economy and apparently adequate technological development. It will be very difficult for the US to fight so close to Chinese home bases.

 

[Tomboy]

"Technologically superior" it isn't. In some areas, it's parity. In most, it's behind. But not by much. Only about 30 years or so.

How is the USN surface fleet more advanced than even PLAN's current surface fleet again? Majority of Burkes still use PESAs with worse anti-surface/ship weapons, Ticos are rust buckets awaiting retirement, Burke III construction is getting delayed, Constellation is a meme and DDG(X) won't even start construction until mid 2030s and LCS is LCS. The only things that'll give the surface fleet a edge over the current PLAN technologically either is in procurement limbo or facing delays. While other ships like San Antonio class is facing cost overruns. Advantages of the current USN surface fleet is numbers and carriers, that's about it.

 

[Dilandu]

Advantages of the current USN surface fleet is numbers and carriers, that's about it.

Numbers are on Chinese side already. USN still got more tonnage, but mostly due to carriers.

 

[Dilandu]

The Chinese military can probably win a sustained air campaign over the homeland and a sustained naval campaign inshore; what it cannot defend against is an all-out well supported bomber raid against a relatively small target set.

Why? What prevents Chinese from surrounding their compact ICBM fields with multistatic radar receivers, that would be placed too close to each other for stealth to sneak through? Relatively small target sets also have the advantage of being rather easy to envelope in tight defense lines; and ICBM fields are "hard" targets, not soft ones.

And even if we assume that silos could be knocked out, there would still be mobile TEL launchers using vast networks of tunnels to move around. Tunnel exits can't be knocked out in mass, they are not concentrated, they are disperced targets. The B-2 would be forced to go after each tunnel exit personally - and it's kinda obvious, that they won't survivs long enough after Chinese would realize that they are here.

 

[Halcyon66]

The US will keep selling weapons to Taiwan and of course keep the delusion of "we" will come to the rescue until they don't.

2027~2029 probably, when the time comes the US will not have any interest to get involved.

China will take great measures to keep the economy intact and make it another SAR like HK and Macau which are both very successful.

HK number 1 in Asian finance centers and number 3 in the world behind NY and LDN.

Regards,

 

[Training_Dummy]

Both Russia and China are further unified by a single perceived, outside threat, being US led NATO, which makes no attempt to veil their goal of dismantling the ruling governments in Moscow and Beijing. And both are aware that if one falls the other will follow shortly

Excuse me, what??

 

[Justo Miranda]

How is the USN surface fleet more advanced than even PLAN's current surface fleet again? Majority of Burkes still use PESAs with worse anti-surface/ship weapons, Ticos are rust buckets awaiting retirement, Burke III construction is getting delayed, Constellation is a meme and DDG(X) won't even start construction until mid 2030s and LCS is LCS. The only things that'll give the surface fleet a edge over the current PLAN technologically either is in procurement limbo or facing delays. While other ships like San Antonio class is facing cost overruns. Advantages of the current USN surface fleet is numbers and carriers, that's about it.

It makes no sense to continue using the language of the cold war in 2025: "Technologically Superior" means the total annihilation of a country's technology in a matter of minutes and without warning, effected by unknown means.

It makes no sense to base our worldview on the known without considering what governments hide in the event of a true emergency.

What about nanotechnology, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, new metamaterials, incredible advances in robotics and biology?

After a crushing military victory against a defenseless neighbor, the dictator can wake up one morning without electricity (definitely) with a strange intestinal plague among the population and with all the hospitals and water distribution systems inoperative (definitely).

Perhaps the most civilized way to avoid another Pearl Harbor and another Hiroshima is to invite any future Yamamoto to witness the Trinity nuclear test.

 

[Dilandu]

What about nanotechnology, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, new metamaterials, incredible advances in robotics and biology?

You mean areas, in which Chinese lead?

 

[Justo Miranda]

You mean areas, in which Chinese lead?

Let's be serious, neither you nor I have the slightest idea who leads whom, maybe the Swiss or the Israelis will surprise us one of these days.

The same road goes from Damascus to Tel Aviv; it also goes from Tel Aviv to Damascus.

Moshe Dayan, 1973.

 

[Tomboy]

Numbers are on Chinese side already. USN still got more tonnage, but mostly due to carriers.

Not really IMO, PLAN has more surface combatants is true but in terms of actual destroyer fleet it is lacking behind USN as of right now. There are only 58 destroyers including ones that are under construction but are estimated to enter service by ~2027, 38 of these are 052Ds, 14 of these are 055s and 6 of these are legacy 052Cs with first generation AESAs. Although PLAN also have other destroyers like 052Bs/051Cs/051B/052s and the 4 Sovremenny class destroyers however these post MLU have all been converted into effectively command frigates with similar electronic suite and weapons.

 

[Dilandu]

Not really IMO, PLAN has more surface combatants is true but in terms of actual destroyer fleet it is lacking behind USN as of right now

On the other hand, PLAN have a large number of frigates. About 40 units of Type 054 & its subclasses; all modern, all ocean-capable multi-purpose units.

 

[Scott Kenny]

And then you woke up?

Your simply assuming PLA is simply just going to let these bombers fly in? or the PLAAF do nothing? Wow surely the entire PLAN is basically taking a nap right. Oh, and China's massive surveillance satellite and AEW network is just gone. Judging by the fact you assumed NGAD will be in service in big enough numbers to be relevant here hence it'll be the mid 2030s, how'd you intend to counter PLAN's 093B/095(Even if 095 does not appear for some reason and PLAN does not increase 093B construction rates there'll be ~40 of these by 2035) swarm in SCS or the AIP swarm? How'd you intend to counter PLAAF again? Are you assuming a smaller force of NGAD is somehow going to hold for useful amount of time against a numerically superior enemy with heavy backend support? or how'd you counter a possibly numerically and technologically superior PLAN surface fleet with massive underwater support? Chinese nuclear weapon stockpile is projected to reach 1000 warheads by 2030 with possibility of increasing beyond that how'd you intend to take all of these out in a single strike? Their system and doctrine rely on second strike survivability yet you're assuming all of their planners are idiots and didn't think of this or possible counters?

Also, if since we are already in the 2030s, what's stopping swarms of H-20s from counter bombing the US? From that statement by a PLAAF official last year, he said H-20s will be procured in large numbers very soon after the reveal.

Can the PLAAF even detect B-2s/B-21s?

 

[Dilandu]

Can the PLAAF even detect B-2s/B-21s?

Anyone could detect stealth. The trick is putting the stealt into conditions, where it would not be able to strike without showing itself.

Look, stealth is not Romulan cloak field. It did not make plane invisible. It merely reduce the amount of beam energy reflected directly back to radar - so the stealth plane signature would bw hidden by background noise. Problem is, the close stealth to radar - the larger the return, and due to inverse square law the gain increase much faster than distance reduces.

So at some distance (much shorter, than for non-stealth planes) the radar would got enough energy back to notice the stealth. It's exactly how F-117 was shot down over Serbia; Serbians noticed that American strike planes use predictable air pathways, and placed their SAM directly on such path, so when F-117 get close enough it was detected and shot down.

And so the way to protect a high-value object from stealth planes is kinds obvious; place radars around it with gaps small enough that stealth could not slip between. For large areas its obviously not a good idea due to extreme costs of such tightly placed radar arrays. But for small high-value area? Its perfectly possible.

P.S. The worst enemy of stealth planes are multistatic radar arrays - where transmitter and receiver are separated. Not only you could have a tight ring of receivers placed around cehtral transmitter (leaving no gaps for stealth to sneak through), but most stealth planes are designed under assumption that radar transmitter and receiver are in same place. The stealthy shape reflect the beam away from the direction it came (i.e. from transmitter); but if the receiver is NOT at the same place as transmitter, the divertion of the beam might actually send the beam directly to receiver!

 

[chimeric oncogene]

Why? What prevents Chinese from surrounding their compact ICBM fields with multistatic radar receivers, that would be placed too close to each other for stealth to sneak through? Relatively small target sets also have the advantage of being rather easy to envelope in tight defense lines; and ICBM fields are "hard" targets, not soft ones.

As per WW2, the bomber always gets through, the question is the attrition rate.

Even with all this kit, continuous combat air patrols over the silo fields, drones with IR sensors conducting loops around the area, you might be able to shoot down what, five percent, ten percent, twenty percent, fifty percent of the B-2s or B-21s per sortie. It seems very difficult to mount a truly airtight defense.

On the other hand, you also have terminal defenses, close in weapon systems, small anti-aircraft missiles and so on to kill incoming small diameter bombs and bunker busters.

Will be enough to blunt the conventional counterforce attack? This is a very difficult question to answer. This sort of uncertainty is common in war.

Similar questions extend to the effectiveness of the USN surface fleet and the PLAN surface fleet within their respective ecosystems of C4ISR; some sources do not credit Type 52Ds with the ability to engage sea-skimming missiles with anything other than CIWS, and the development of the surface fleet must necessarily have been quite uneven. These are complex systems, it is difficult to suss out the details, and under some conditions, wars can be lost and won on more narrow margins.

The margins that are clear are those of local numerical superiority, proximity, and ability to bring logistics and combined arms to bear, which are potentially quite favorable for the PLA in any Taiwan scenario. Assuming the margins in weapons systems are not overly large, given time to make up for accidents of war, temporary setbacks, good luck or surprise on the part of Blue etc, it seems difficult to credit Red with a disadvantage overall.

 

[Ainen]

Can the PLAAF even detect B-2s/B-21s?

Well, they work on it for decades.
At this point, reverse question is far more interesting.

 

[Dilandu]

As per WW2, the bomber always gets through, the question is the attrition rate.

With just 19 B-2 bombers available at max, this formula is hardly relevant.

 

[EmoBirb]

With just 19 B-2 bombers available at max, this formula is hardly relevant.

If they even manage to take off. I wouldn't be surprised if China could do Operation Web 2.0 but at a much larger scale. And just how Ukrainian truckers aren't really standing out in Russia, ethnic Chinese are so common in the US that they won't draw any specific attention.

All in all I don't think the extremely small B-2 would have great survival odds in a hot war against China, across all sorts of scenarios.

 

[chimeric oncogene]

With just 19 B-2 bombers available at max, this formula is hardly relevant.

It depends on the exact operational situation.

Given that Red Team is on the defensive, and Blue Team has an escalation advantage, and how Blue Team has honed its first strike capabilties, it would be foolish to discount the possibility of a sneak attack with diplomatic cover. The Israeli strike is again instructive.

Pearl Harbors are entirely possible. It behooves Red to be cautious and vigilant.

---

Remember, this is the point of maximum danger, 2025 to 2035, when the balance of power is not entirely clear. It is during this time that red might underestimate blue and blue might underestimate red. Additional caution is not undesirable under such circumstances.

 

[EmoBirb]

and ultimately the Chinese have a large economy and apparently adequate technological development. It will be very difficult for the US to fight so close to Chinese home bases.

That is the elephant in the room really. If this was set literally anywhere else, the US could leverage it's vastly superior expeditionary capabilities and power projection to gain an advantage. But going up against a peer with a decisive home advantage is what makes this scenario to doom and gloom.

 

[EmoBirb]

Excuse me, what??

I think it's pretty self explanatory

 

[EmoBirb]

The US will keep selling weapons to Taiwan and of course keep the delusion of "we" will come to the rescue until they don't.

2027~2029 probably, when the time comes the US will not have any interest to get involved.

China will take great measures to keep the economy intact and make it another SAR like HK and Macau which are both very successful.

HK number 1 in Asian finance centers and number 3 in the world behind NY and LDN.

Regards,

Indeed, all things considered I doubt the US will truly intervene in what's essentially a civil war. They'll instead fortify their positions further back, fortify Japan, the Philippines and carry on with their strategy of containing the PLAN from there, with much better chances.

 

[Training_Dummy]

it’s a strangely written sentence when you read and reread it but I guess the US led NATOs goal of dismantling the rule of the governments of Beijing and Moscow is completely unserious. But you do you. This thread is a horror show and should be nuked from orbit. Y’all should go argue on Reddit about this topic, not here.

 

[SspewixzzZ]

Indeed, all things considered I doubt the US will truly intervene in what's essentially a civil war. They'll instead fortify their positions further back, fortify Japan, the Philippines and carry on with their strategy of containing the PLAN from there, with much better chances.

Agree. IMO Taiwan is just a symbol for both China and the US. The only place worth an all-out fight is the South China Sea — we all know how that played out: After nearly coming to blows, both sides reached an unspoken balance, and I don't think Taiwan is worth breaking this tacit understanding.

Pearl Harbors are entirely possible. It behooves Red to be cautious and vigilant.

It's impossible unless China want a nuclear war.

Let's be real: When you actually crunch the military numbers, you will find out that Taiwan only exists because of you guys. It's not worth more than a China-US trade deal — even less than a China-EU agreement. And as its military value keeps dropping, Taiwan will 'return' quietly at some closed-door summit where everyone saves face.

Seriously, why torch precious B-2s and carriers over this? Better to park them guarding Middle East oil lanes and keep China's coastal economy humming than to fight a Pacific-wide inferno.

 

[EmoBirb]

it’s a strangely written sentence when you read and reread it but I guess the US led NATOs goal of dismantling the rule of the governments of Beijing and Moscow is completely unserious. But you do you. This thread is a horror show and should be nuked from orbit. Y’all should go argue on Reddit about this topic, not here.

Are you seriously suggesting the goal of the US (and thus NATO) isn't to weaken and undermine China and Russia on the international stage?

Lmfao

 

[johnpjones1775]

How is the USN surface fleet more advanced than even PLAN's current surface fleet again? Majority of Burkes still use PESAs with worse anti-surface/ship weapons, Ticos are rust buckets awaiting retirement, Burke III construction is getting delayed, Constellation is a meme and DDG(X) won't even start construction until mid 2030s and LCS is LCS. The only things that'll give the surface fleet an edge over the current PLAN technologically either is in procurement limbo or facing delays. While other ships like San Antonio class is facing cost overruns. Advantages of the current USN surface fleet is numbers and carriers, that's about it.

Yeah the LCS, and the PLAN dedicates 3 frigates or destroyers to shadow them when they’re in the neighborhood

 

[Scott Kenny]

Indeed, all things considered I doubt the US will truly intervene in what's essentially a civil war. They'll instead fortify their positions further back, fortify Japan, the Philippines and carry on with their strategy of containing the PLAN from there, with much better chances.

There's been a standing statement since 1950something that China will militarily occupy the island of Formosa over the burning wreckage of 7th Fleet.

 

[SUPER=BUG]

There's been a standing statement since 1950something that China will militarily occupy the island of Formosa over the burning wreckage of 7th Fleet.

To be honest, it was 1950, China didn't even have a decent navy at that time.And at that time, China did not have nuclear weapons.

 

[Kat Tsun]

With all due respect, I think you're putting too much trust and emphasis on less than 20 aircraft from the 1980s in a theoretical peer conflict where you have a, excuse my wording here, metric fuck ton of radars on the ground, air and sea, all operating at different levels, frequencies, bearings, power etc. etc.

Iran had that too. It didn't stop the B-2s. It couldn't even stop the F-35 which is less stealthy from most angles than the big bomber.

The likelihood of getting one of these 19 (are even all 19 operational at a given time? I'd expect availability would be below 100% tbh) through to any important target is unlikely,

This isn't born out by evidence in Serbia, Iraq, Iran, or any other combat theater using stuff contemporaneous with HQ-9 and HQ-7.

The best bet would be just launching AGM-158s at stand off ranges,

That would allow the B-2s to engage Chinese missile fields directly from over Japan lol.

but then the missiles themselves would have to make it through.

Well, you wouldn't use missiles. You'd use smaller weapons like GBU-39 with hard target defeat and standoff range. There's a lot of silos.

Anyway you do realize that the missile fields China has are literally on the border with Mongolia, right? They're not deep inside an IADS like Three Gorges Dam, or Dombarovskiy, or the U.S. missile fields. They're at the very edge of it. Small Diameter Bomb has a range in excess of 100 kilometers already. Give it a small motor, it might hit two or three times that. You definitely aren't going to be overflying the missile fields and you might even not even need to enter the PRC's airspace.

The PRC would quite literally need to annex Mongolia and build an entire air defense network inside that terrain to provide a buffer against American bomber overflights skirting through Russia or something. They'd probably better get started on that!

China isn't Iran, China isn't even Russia, which is as far removed from Iran as Russia itself is from China in that regard.

Nobody, not even the United States, has sensors reliable enough to detect and track stealth aircraft like B-2, F-35, or F-22. All the more reason the PRC would be better served by a few dozen H-XXs, with like 12 nuclear cruise missiles each, instead of an extra 500 missile silos lmao.

I don't think your assessments are actually different; Kat has noted that attrition among the B-2 force headed into inner China is going to be quite ruinous.

It would be a problem if they had to hunt DF-41 TELs TBH, but the silo fields are poorly placed, since it's like putting all of America's nuclear arsenal in Alaska. They're right on the border with a neutral country and a potentially neutral country, and too close to the enemy regardless to establish a major IADS when the potentially neutral country has an IADS very similar to Iran's.

They should have put them in that little tri-province area of Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang. That would be the hardest to reach and give the most time to intercept any incoming bombers.

There's been a standing statement since 1950something that China will militarily occupy the island of Formosa over the burning wreckage of 7th Fleet.

At this point, the US is getting pretty close to outright recognizing Taiwan as a country separate from China. It probably won't.

 

[Tomboy]

This isn't born out by evidence in Serbia, Iraq, Iran, or any other combat theater using stuff contemporaneous with HQ-9 and HQ-7.

Are you seriously comparing these countries' air defense to Chinese air defense? What is this joke?

 

[Kat Tsun]

Are you seriously comparing these countries' air defense to Chinese air defense? What is this joke?

You're right. They're actually less experienced.

How is the USN surface fleet more advanced than even PLAN's current surface fleet again?

I'm not sure the surface fleet is important to be honest. It's not like the U.S. is going to be running supply convoys to Taiwan except at the lowest threshold of conflict, one that the PRC itself doesn't seem to think is likely, and it already has CEC so it's not like the warships matter much for guidance of weapons either.

The U.S. is important in areas that matter: strategic aviation, submarines, and space sensors. Mission planning too, I guess.

 

[Dilandu]

Iran had that too. It didn't stop the B-2s. It couldn't even stop the F-35, which is less stealthy from most angles, and not against their VHF Nebos.

Sigh. Iranian air defense was a mismash of old American, old export Chinese, a bit of modern French and Russian export and Iranian own designs based on 1970s American system. It was outdated, it was poorly organized, it was never ever designed to work together as a system.

The PRC would quite literally need to annex Mongolia and build an entire air defense network inside that terrain to provide a buffer against American bomber overflights skirting through Russia or something. They'd probably better get started on that!

So for your attack on China you are planning to invade Russian airspace, making Russia feel alarmed and invaded? Could you be a bit less absurd?

And nobody, not even the United States, has sensors reliable enough to detect and track stealth aircraft like B-2, F-35, or F-22...

You have ZERO idea how stealth worked, that's for sure.

 

[Kat Tsun]

It depends on the exact operational situation.

Given that Red Team is on the defensive, and Blue Team has an escalation advantage, and how Blue Team has honed its first strike capabilties, it would be foolish to discount the possibility of a sneak attack with diplomatic cover. The Israeli strike is again instructive.

Pearl Harbors are entirely possible. It behooves Red to be cautious and vigilant.

Midnight Hammer is almost certainly giving PLA and RuMOD planners second hand PTSD while Air Force E-Ring planners were probably posting "NO BOMBERS?" memes on Navy office doors and miming airplanes in the break rooms.

It's very impressive and something like a Small Diameter Bomb for the B-2 is going to be on the wish list for SIOP if it doesn't already exist.

Remember, this is the point of maximum danger, 2025 to 2035, when the balance of power is not entirely clear. It is during this time that red might underestimate blue and blue might underestimate red. Additional caution is not undesirable under such circumstances.

There is another period, when the U.S. Navy weakens at the end of the next decade, but it's entirely possible the B-21 will be sufficient to give pause if it gets built in large enough quantity to replace the B-1/B-52 force.

Can the PLAAF even detect B-2s/B-21s?

Stealth aircraft can, and will be, detected unless you have some immense advantages.

They will be pathed around air defenses to minimize exposure to the most lethal ones, but it's unlikely the PLA will have a particularly homogenous air defense network like the U.S. does with NORAD, unless it retakes Outer Mongolia or something. It's not so much about detecting them as it is getting in place to engage them and stop them before they release their weapons, having sufficient air defense to stop their targets from being hit, and having sufficient targets that a successful attack doesn't degrade you to inefficacy.

I'm not sure the PLARF has that last one down given the B-2 can carry eighty Mk 82s and who knows how many Small Diameters. If it's even a low hundred of weapons, a single bomber can come close to annihilating the missile fields on the Mongolian border, and there's likely going to be more than one bomber per field.

If they do, it will be in their TEL force, which is a harder target.

Basically the Chinese silo fields are in a really crummy spot since they're next to the international border and not deep inside their IADS. If they get Mongolia and Russia into a NORAD type thing and supply them with modern weapons and radar systems, which is not really possible due to Russian arms sanctions at the very least, this could change.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Wait, the Chinese silo fields are up on the border with Mongolia?

Makes them even easier targets.

So for your attack on China you are planning to invade Russian airspace, making Russia feel alarmed and invaded? Could you be a bit less absurd?

That is where the great-circle route goes, yes.

I'm sure there's a way to make it look like China is trying to invade Siberia to get Russian permission for overflights to hit the missile fields. Assuming that China isn't going to try to invade Siberia for the oil and gas resources, of course.

Midnight Hammer is almost certainly giving PLA and RuMOD planners second hand PTSD while Air Force E-Ring planners were probably posting "NO BOMBERS?" memes on Navy office doors and miming airplanes in the break rooms.

It's very impressive and something like a Small Diameter Bomb for the B-2 is going to be on the wish list for SIOP if it doesn't already exist.

While you physically can stuff a nuke into a 6x7" box (witness 155mm nuclear artillery shells), you would not be able to rack them anywhere near as densely as the BRA packs conventional warheads due to neutron flux.

Also, the W48/W82 designs are rather inefficient in terms of use of plutonium, they have an elliptical primary shape that needs 20kt worth of plutonium and only gets 0.1kt out of the squeeze.

There is another period, when the U.S. Navy weakens at the end of the next decade, but it's entirely possible the B-21 will be sufficient to give pause if it gets built in large enough quantity to replace the B-1/B-52 force.

B-21 is planned to have at least 100 built. That's enough to replace B-1s and B-2s and actually increase the total number of bombers in the US inventory. Building 140 would replace the entire USAF bomber fleet 1:1.

 

[Dilandu]

I'm sure there's a way to make it look like China is trying to invade Siberia to get Russian permission for overflights to hit the missile fields. Assuming that China isn't going to try to invade Siberia for the oil and gas resources, of course.

Yeah, yeah, and there is a way to make it look like Taiwan is gonna invade California, so USA would help China to re-establish control over Taiwan. Seriously, the grade of absurdity in this thread reached absurd level by itself.

 

[johnpjones1775]

Indeed, all things considered I doubt the US will truly intervene in what's essentially a civil war. They'll instead fortify their positions further back, fortify Japan, the Philippines and carry on with their strategy of containing the PLAN from there, with much better chances.

Can’t contain someone you’re not willing to use force against.

 

[SUPER=BUG]

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[ComradeVortex]

So for your attack on China you are planning to invade Russian airspace, making Russia feel alarmed and invaded? Could you be a bit less absurd?

And Russia then could also attack Japan.

 

[chimeric oncogene]

They're right on the border with a neutral country and a potentially neutral country,

Beijing's assumption is that the USAF will not overfly Russia.

If you look at a map of Mongolia, it is not possible to overfly Mongolia without over flying Russia.

Now of course, this may be a bad assumption, but it would represent extraordinary American aggressiveness and recklessness to fly armed bombers on a counterforce mission over the Russian landmass during a conventional counterforce operation in a nuclear war environment. But who says the Americans aren't crazy?

 

[Scott Kenny]

Yeah, yeah, and there is a way to make it look like Taiwan is gonna invade California, so USA would help China to re-establish control over Taiwan. Seriously, the grade of absurdity in this thread reached absurd level by itself.

China's major national vulnerability is petroleum. They have very little oil or gas inside their borders. Mongolia has lots of petroleum, so does Siberia. China invading either one would make sense in terms of removing that vulnerability. Want to screw China over? Middle East restricts oil exports, or war with the US means interdicting the SCS.

But who says the Americans aren't crazy?

Anyone who says Americans are not crazy has not met any Americans.

 

[chimeric oncogene]

China's major national vulnerability is petroleum. They have very little oil or gas inside their borders. Mongolia has lots of petroleum, so does Siberia. China invading either one would make sense in terms of removing that vulnerability. Want to screw China over? Middle East restricts oil exports, or war with the US means interdicting the SCS.

Which is why it will be very difficult for China to distance itself from Russia and e.g. ally with Europe. The Sino Russian entente in the short term has many many drivers, and secures China's rear against complete blockade by sea.

The oil problem remains absolutely paramount despite impressive and effective efforts of the Chinese to increase electrification and domestic productuon. While the rise in imports has been successfully stemmed and China can probably look forward to year-on-year declines in oil imports in the coming decade, so the hole is not getting deeper, current import levels are still 10 million barrels a day, mostly by sea.

Unless there is Revolution in Russia, the Chinese are likely to be able to secure their petroleum supplies at least in part through accommodating the Russian elite. There is no point messing with the current arrangement.

Of course, if there is Revolution in Russia, and the new Russian elite is allied with the United States, then all bets are off.