Yeah. The only thing for sure is one Su-35 crash site. Rest of the story seems to be determined by how many big social media accounts posting a narratives.

----

When you wrote about that ''Pd'' or the 'probability of detection' ( e.g. 90% or 50% etc), does it actually refer to the first scan cycle as I have been able to read in multiple sources. Tnx....

It refers to Swerling case statistical target model commonly used in radar range calculations and in brochures. Typically for an aircraft target, Swerling case 1 is used. With typical false alarm rate of 10^-6 and desired probability of detection. Be it 50 or 90%.

The equation, if used will yield required SNR or "Signal strengh" correspond to the probability of detection.
 
Fighter Bomber finally commented on the SU-35 crash. He denies an F-16 was involved. This is from his official Telegram.

View attachment 773163

The consensus about 'Fighter Bomber' appears to be that they are trusted only as far as confirmation of losses. Anything else is unreliable as any other 'source' in the fog of war...
 
Okay, some milbloggers and youtubers have jumped into posting theories without confirmation, but please stop with "Ukrainian's lie" rhetoric. In times of war 'special military operations' there will be valid and invalid claims, propaganda, and mistakes. Ukrainians sure don't have a monopoly on this.

Blanket statements about countries are reductive, and generally wrong.

True.

But I think many people have been burned with regards to their trust after the entire Ghost of Kiev hoax blew up.

I agree however, it's all about waiting and seeing what comes of it. Usually these things turn out to be nothing burgers though. I believe we will only start to get a full picture of the entire air war years after hostilities ended.
 
The consensus about 'Fighter Bomber' appears to be that they are trusted only as far as confirmation of losses. Anything else is unreliable as any other 'source' in the fog of war...

I don't think that's the consensus at all. His track record has been pretty good and many of his points were valid. The issue with FB is that for one he speaks very cryptic and second he often let's his own opinion bleed into his posts. Being active or former VKS obviously leads to some biases with regards to certain topics. He gets very worked up over shelters for example. But he's also not shy criticizing the people in charge, when equipment isn't being provided etc.

I think with regards to the air war over Ukraine he's one of the most reliable sources.
 

FIGHTERBOMBER: В КУРСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ ПОТЕРЯН СУ-35С, ЛЕТЧИК ЖИВ​


О потере многоцелевого истребителя Су-35С в Курской области сообщили телеграм»-каналы Fighterbomber, "Белорусский силовик" и "Северный Ветер".
Сегодня ночью ВСУ перебросили в Сумы один из оставшихся на вооружении ЗРК Patriot. Целью врага стал один из наших самолётов, пилот которого своевременно катапультировался и сейчас находится в безопасности. Сообщение об этом опубликовал связанный с группировкой войск "Север" телеграм-канал "СВ".

Сбили наш Су-35С в Курской области. Летчик, к счастью, спасен,

говорится и в сообщении телеграм-канала "Белорусский силовик".

Подробности инцидента не сообщаются. Минобороны России информацию о потере многоцелевого истребителя не подтверждало. Ранее русские военные телеграм-каналы сообщили о поступающей из зоны СВО информации о перехвате тактической авиацией ВКС России очередного многоцелевого истребителя F-16AM ВСУ над Сумской областью.''


History repeats itself .... 13.05.2023- 07.06.2025 ?
 
Translation please ! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Sorry ....

''The loss of a Su-35S multi-role fighter in the Kursk region was reported by the Telegram channels Fighterbomber, Belorussky Silovik, and Severny Veter.

Last night the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred one of the remaining Patriot air defense systems to Sumy. The enemy's target was one of our aircraft, the pilot of which ejected in time and is now safe. A message about this was published by the SV Telegram channel associated with the Sever group of forces.

Our Su-35S was shot down in the Kursk region. The pilot, fortunately, was saved,

This is also stated in the message from the telegram channel "Belarusian Security Officer".

Details of the incident have not been reported. The Russian Defense Ministry has not confirmed the information about the loss of the multi-role fighter. Earlier, Russian military Telegram channels reported information coming from the SVO zone about the interception of another F-16AM multi-role fighter of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces over the Sumy region.''
 
A Russian fighter flies dangerously close to a U.S. MQ-9 before deploying flares from a position directly over an MQ-9 drone on a defeat-ISIS mission in Syria July 23, 2023. One of the Russian flares struck the MQ-9, severely damaging its propeller. Despite the damage, the aircraft was able to return to its home base.
Date23 July 2023

Russian_SU-35_Over_Syria.jpg


Some articles :


 
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In the connection with Su-35S in Syria .Some interesting details from one article (2021) ,title is this :

"Dangerous enemy with old missiles": Turkish press on the use of the Su-35 fighter in Syria.''​



''The Russian Su-35S aircraft is the pinnacle of fourth-generation fighter development. However, despite its excellent combat performance, it continues to be equipped with outdated rocket weapons.
This opinion is expressed on the pages of Defense Turkey.''

Another citation :

''The most striking element of these operations was that the plane was equipped with old R-27 missiles instead of the new R-77. This suggests that the problems with the R-77 were not completely resolved, and the Russians, who could not risk in a possible conflict, preferred to fly with old missiles.''


Photo from the article:

Su-35S with R-77-1 and R-27T.jpg

About using 'old' but very useful IR-guided medium-range AAM type R-27T ....

It is old Soviet tactics from 60's to use combo of radar and IR guided AAM together.So it was nothing new.R-27T is medium-range IR guided AAM with ability to engage incoming fighter flying on AB mode in stratosphere from distance of 50-60km .As we could see from 2022,Su-35S engaged UkrAF fighters with R-77-1 from distances 50-60km ,even 80km etc.... Passive heat seeker 9B1023/'36T' can not see only heat from the engine nozzles but heat from the skin (friction) and maybe the heat from the fighter's radar? This can e.g. 'stealthflanker' explain if some of the radar energy is converted to heat energy during illumination as I could read in some articles.

img_27_2_2.jpg
The R-77-1 outfitted with an active radar seeker (nearest camera) and the R-27T featuring heat-seeking guidance, optimised to counter high-performance air targets, loaded on a Su-35S.


From the article : https://www.keymilitary.com/article/war-games-khotlovo

Su-35S with IR guided AAM's

Su-35S  IR guided AAM.jpg
 
UAC delivered a new bunch of Su-35S
 

ВКС России получили партию новейших истребителей Су-35С​


''В ОАК пообещали к 2030 году повысить производительность труда на 30% и обеспечить большие объемы выпуска продукции по гособоронзаказу.''

''The UAC promised to increase productivity by 30% by 2030 and ensure large volumes of production for state defense orders.''


 
In the connection with Su-35S in Syria .Some interesting details from one article (2021) ,title is this :
And tell us what the pathos of this article is. Why were the R-77 missiles needed in Syria? Who were they supposed to kill? And tell us about the terrorist aircraft in Syria. Or maybe he was needed for the Americans? Next, tell me, Ukrainians also have super-duper aviation, as Trump's PR man says. Why waste new missiles if there are enough old ones? And that's when we solved the mystery.Unfinished rockets and others. I'm sick of these couch experts.
 
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And tell us what the pathos of this article is. Why were the R-77 missiles needed in Syria? Who were they supposed to kill? And tell us about the terrorist aircraft in Syria. Or maybe he was needed for the Americans? Next, tell me, Ukrainians also have super-duper aviation, as Trump's PR man says. Why waste new missiles if there are enough old ones? And that's when we solved the mystery.Unfinished rockets and others. I'm sick of these couch experts.


My comment was to point out the inaccuracies in the mentioned article .New medium-range radar guided AAM type R-77-1 in the combo with medium-range IR-guided R-27T was used in the possible 'emergency situations' where they can be used against NATO fighters there. That was the story about.
 

Propaganda just like this title ....

The russian occupying forces primarily use Su-34 fighter-bombers to drop guided glide bombs (KABs) on Ukrainian towns and villages​



Only one ( maybe,maybe two) was/were destroyed.


Seems like a Su-34 had a landing gear failure and sustained significant damage/crashed as a consequence

 

I'm not sure how valid these claims are, given that the AL-41s are pretty powerful engines, just how the Irbis has a pretty decent power output, IIRC. Especially when compared to the aircraft that Egypt ultimately picked, which was the Rafale, which isn't necessarily known for it's outstanding flight characteristics and a very small radar (and a not so stellar combat record).

The US pressure is definitely imaginable however.

Also, isn't the Su-35S called Flanker-M?
 
I'm not sure how valid these claims are, given that the AL-41s are pretty powerful engines, just how the Irbis has a pretty decent power output, IIRC. Especially when compared to the aircraft that Egypt ultimately picked, which was the Rafale, which isn't necessarily known for it's outstanding flight characteristics and a very small radar (and a not so stellar combat record).

The US pressure is definitely imaginable however.

Also, isn't the Su-35S called Flanker-M?

the article, and another one similar to that which I read today, did not say the issue is with the Al-41's power. it's with its signature and efficiency. in addition to the PESA radar and EW.
 

Only reason was CAATSA ,nothing else.

''Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Egypt against purchasing Russian Sukhoi Su-35, saying "We've made clear that if those systems were to be purchased, the CAATSA statute would require sanctions on the regime.

 
the article, and another one similar to that which I read today, did not say the issue is with the Al-41's power. it's with its signature and efficiency. in addition to the PESA radar and EW.
I guess that makes sense.

I just have a very hard time believing it. Given the Su-35S has all things considered a pretty good service record. No loss against another aircraft, a few lost to SAM however while being credited with some kills themselves and being confirmed to fly a lot of patrols during 3 years of war and keep opposing aviation on their toes, working together with the MiG-31s and taking some load off these (still capable) oldtimers.

So I think so far real world performance speaks in favor of its various advertised attributes. That's why I believe political factors were the infinitely bigger factors.
 
Only reason was CAATSA ,nothing else.

''Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Egypt against purchasing Russian Sukhoi Su-35, saying "We've made clear that if those systems were to be purchased, the CAATSA statute would require sanctions on the regime.

another report here said its CAATSA AND something else, which was mentioned in the first article.


I guess that makes sense.

I just have a very hard time believing it. Given the Su-35S has all things considered a pretty good service record. No loss against another aircraft, a few lost to SAM however while being credited with some kills themselves and being confirmed to fly a lot of patrols during 3 years of war and keep opposing aviation on their toes, working together with the MiG-31s and taking some load off these (still capable) oldtimers.

So I think so far real world performance speaks in favor of its various advertised attributes. That's why I believe political factors were the infinitely bigger factors.

its largely in the context of Ukraine where air to air combat between manned aircraft has largely been avoided on both sides after the initial phases, or in other areas such as Syria where there's little air combat going on.
 
It's largely in the context of Ukraine where air to air combat between manned aircraft has largely been avoided on both sides after the initial phases, or in other areas such as Syria where there's little air combat going on.

So it's 3 years of consistent participation in a war that features the most heavily defended and contested air space in Europe and NATO assets swarming around outside of the immediate fighting. Seems pretty darn good.

Now let's look at the aircraft Egypt picked instead, being the Rafale...oh...ouch...ugh...
 
So it's 3 years of consistent participation in a war that features the most heavily defended and contested air space in Europe and NATO assets swarming around outside of the immediate fighting. Seems pretty darn good.

Now let's look at the aircraft Egypt picked instead, being the Rafale...oh...ouch...ugh...
Egypt did not pick the Rafale over the Su-35.

Egypt began negotiations for the Rafale in 2014 and signed in 2015

Egypt then began negotiations for the Su-35 AFTER the Rafale purchase, in 2018
 
another report here said its CAATSA AND something else, which was mentioned in the first article.




its largely in the context of Ukraine where air to air combat between manned aircraft has largely been avoided on both sides after the initial phases, or in other areas such as Syria where there's little air combat going on.

And again that Bulgarian site .....

Citation :

''Egypt reveals why it canceled Russia’s Su-35 deal: outdated radar, weak electronic warfare, and inefficient engines exposed in tests, shaking the arms market.''

OMG ....

In the reality, Su-35S shot down enemy fighter with launch distance of 213km.
 
Defense Updates has put out a video about why Egypt rejected the Su-35:


A prominent symbol of Russian military power is the Su-35 fighter jet.The single-seat, twin-engine, heavyweight, super-maneuverable aircraft, is designed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau.The type was originally developed by the Soviet Union from the Su-27. The aircraft has a top speed of Mach 2.25, and it can carry a variety of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.​
In January 2016, Russia made the first combat deployment of the Su-35 when it sent a fleet of four aircraft to Syria.Su-35 is considered to be the premier fighter jet in the Russian inventory since the Sukhoi Su-57 is not fully operational as of now.The fighter took years to build with lots of R&D going into it, and is touted by Russia as a 4++ generation fighter. Su-35 is being used in Ukraine.​
While Russia has tried to export the fighter to various countries, things haven’t moved much.The only success was with China, which bought 24 of these, most likely because it had a special interest in the Su-35's engine.An Egyptian military official has now revealed to "Special-Defense" that Cairo's decision not to finalize the deal with Russian Su-35 fighters came on the basis of a thorough technical study that showed several shortcomings in the fighter that are not in line with the requirements of the Egyptian Air Force and the nature of modern threats.​
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes how the Russian Su-35 got exposed by Egypt?
#defenseupdates #su35 #su35exposed
Chapters:
0:00 TITLE
00:11 INTRODUCTION
01:49 SPONSORSHIP - NordVPN
02:23 BACKGROUND
03:23 CYBERWARFARE IS WEAK & EASY JAMMING
04:17 INADEQUATE RADAR
06:27 ENGINE HAS ISSUES
 

Again and again....

Indonesia and Egypt have abandoned the Su-35's because of CAATSA and nothing else ,period. In fact ,they know very little or almost nothing about Su-35 ( export version) at all. Stories about some exercises in Egypt etc were fake.

PRC purchased 24 Su-35's for about 2.5 billion $ .There was no/is any of the technical issues with them. In fact ,in several interviews, high-ranking officers of the PLAAF clearly said that Su-35's are most capable/potential fighters in its inventory.

So, if everything that was stated about the radar, engines, and self-defense equipment was true, why would Algeria decide to acquire them?

As for Iran, one of the options was the purchase of 14 Su-35 produced by KnAAZ and the licensed serial production of 50 units. We will see what will happen with all of that.
 
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Can you point to those high-ranking PLAAF officers interviews?

What China got out of the Su-35 purchase, (PLAAF officer interview)​


View: https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/ajx4bx/what_china_got_out_of_the_su35_purchase_plaaf/#:~:text=%2D%20The%20SU%2D35%20serves%20as%20an%20excellent,of%20their%20own%20development%20vs%20international%20standards.&text=%2D%20The%20Su%2D35%20is%20giving%20China%20lots,on%20where%20to%20go%20with%20fighter%20development
.

''PLAAF officers have highlighted the Su-35's advanced features and its impact on the Chinese air force's capabilities. Specifically, they noted the Su-35's powerful PESA radar, its integration with Chinese air defense networks via datalink, and the experience gained from operating a thrust-vectoring aircraft. The Su-35 also provided valuable insights into engine technology and aerodynamic design, accelerating the development of China's own next-generation fighters.

Key points from PLAAF officers about the Su-35:
  • Advanced Radar:
    The Irbis-E passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar is a significant upgrade, offering long detection ranges and the ability to track multiple targets.
  • Enhanced Situational Awareness:
    The Su-35's datalink capability allows for better integration with China's air defense network, improving overall situational awareness.
  • Thrust Vectoring Experience:
    Operating the Su-35's thrust-vectoring engines provided valuable experience for PLAAF pilots and engineers in handling highly maneuverable aircraft.
  • Technology Transfer:
    The Su-35 served as a platform for studying advanced technologies like the AL-41F1S engine and aerodynamic design, which informed the development of China's own advanced fighters.
  • Operational Capabilities:
    The Su-35's long range and advanced weaponry make it well-suited for operations in contested areas like the South China Sea.
Overall, the PLAAF views the Su-35 as a valuable addition to its fleet, providing both immediate operational benefits and opportunities for technological advancement. ''
 
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> The Su-35 has an interesting feature, the "БОСЭС" or "Duel" which, if programmed with the capability of the opposing fighter, can automatically track the enemy in real time and recommend optimized decisions. It presents a good look into the Russian understanding of air combat modeling - and China may seek to do something similar for their 5th generation fights. (Coupled with advances in Chinese AI technology).

now that is very interesting
 
I already wrote some details about that BOSES-TU for the BVR combat called 'Duel' .That combat system is integrated in both Su-35/S and Su-57 ( maybe even in the Su-30SM2?).

БОСЭС-ТУ «Дуэль»

Бортовая оперативно-советующая экспертная система тактическо уровня «Дуэль»

Sources:


 

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