RIS-T SLM and SLS have reportedly received close to 100% success rates in Ukraine. How do Raven and Sky Sabre stack up, and are we likely to see Sky Sabre sent to Ukraine as Germany did with the IRIS-T?
Raven is an ad hoc system making best use of some free, disparate components. In terms of comparison it would make sense to compare to the (admittedly less ad hoc) IRIS-T SL systems donated by Sweden (with Norwegian missiles I believe).
Sky Sabre and IRIS-T SLM are broadly similar. Both have/will add longer range variants (CAMM-ER and SLX) and there is potential for more (CAMM-MR).
But...near zero chance of any Sky Sabre turning up in Ukraine....IRIS-T SLM got lucky in some respects with the Egyptian order that was able to be re-profiled and then German Gov sensibly piled in with orders....meanwhile Sky Sabre production of fire units for UK has been comparatively glacial, but component production for the huge Polish order will likely occupy them for years....both systems will sell well...but as ever in UK procurement there is a 'what if?' around the position if the UK had actually ordered the full 24 systems originally and got scaled production of fire units etc. humming earlier...the actual missile production line should be white hot though...
It's not just a UK thing though...you could level the same criticism of France with it MICA SAM system, which was arguably in a better place than IRIS-T SLM or Sky Sabre for increased production for Ukraine....all comes down to Government backing...
In terms of comparable 'European' (accepting some US content but excluding Turkish systems) systems you've got Land Ceptor, IRIS-T SLM, MICA and NASAMS...its a little complex as there are national variants of these but looking at the systems and missile families:
'Ceptor' variants - Has gained big land customers like UK, Italy (in EMAD guise) and Poland. Doing very well in Maritime sales and in Air has a future with Typhoon, F-35 and GCAP integrations plus clear developments into the future.
IRIS-T SLM variants - Has got big customers in Germany, Egypt and Ukraine (albeit funded by others). Has gained some smaller orders in Europe recently, mainly from smaller countries but all with potential to grow larger over time. Maritime sales non existent but Germany appears to be moving towards that in future, but they might find most of the market closed off by then by CAMM, ESSM and MICA. Air sales started very well with the initial slug of orders but then tailed off completely, will get a boost from recent German framework and Saudi replen and potential for Korean order. Air future is a little unclear though...its not integrated with F-35. Unlikely to gain any further orders from F-16 users as they transition away. A lot will hinge on any new orders for Gripen and Typhoon and if the replacement FCAAM gets built and then gets integrated on platforms like F-35 or just on SCAF. With SLX on the way and SL it has a clear route forward in the land, and potentially, maritime arena as well.
MICA/NG - Bit of an odd one out...for unclear reasons. Should have been very well positioned, particularly given how long its been around, the new NG variants and production status when Ukraine kicked off to pick up far more land sales and for production to be expanded. Overall Land sales are modest and appear to have stalled a little, noticeably with France not buying it, maritime sales better (again with France not buying it) but still in modest actual quantities, air sales are better than you'd think (with some large orders from France, India, Taiwan and UAE the standouts) but spread over a 30 year period. But its future is totally tied to Rafale as Mirage 2000 slowly bow out....It may well come down to cost as its rumoured to be quite expensive...and is neither fish nor fowl as an A2A missile
NASAMS - You'd probably have to say its the stand out success...little old Norway (in conjunction with Raytheon) persisted in developing it AND buying and deploying it, despite the end of the Cold War, like they did with NSM...and have been rewarded with sales that they had no real right to as a result of that long term view, its adaptable design, missile selection and their persistence...plus everyone else taking their eye completely off the ball (see NSM for the best example)...Obviously no maritime or air sales for NASAMS (air would be AMRAAM/AIM-9X under US) but steady sales of systems, multiple users, good supply of missiles, new upgraded variants...all from a very modest initial investment..
