skyblue said:
I’m surprised there is so little interest in Brilliant Pebbles and push to resurrect the program.

It always seemed to me like an 80’s ideas that belongs in the 2020s: clouds of small, smart cheap components, machine learning, automation, high level of decentralization. If SpaceX, Blue Origin and the crowd of other new/old space fulfill expectations to bring down launch costs dramatically, it’ll be much more affordable, and imaginable to put up the thousands of interceptor satellites needed. Miniaturization and A.I. has vastly improved, hugely so since the 80s when Brilliant Pebbles was conceived. Surely we can build much smaller, cheaper and thus populous interceptors? This has been a fashionable trend in satellite technology: SmallSats, CubeSats, Elon Musks’s humungous internet satellite constellation.


I noticed the strategic use of "if" in your scenario...

Yeah, things might be a lot cheaper in this theoretical future. But it's never going to be really cheap. Take lots of relatively cheap components and now try to integrate them all. The integration requires a lot of software effort and a lot of people looking over all of that. It's not easy. And it won't be cheap.

Plus, we don't even know if this would work. It requires a lot of spacecraft covering a lot of territory and all connected into a warning and tracking system that might not behave as advertised.

Lift tonnage at the very least is cheap enough that a private corporation can launch BP sized objects into low orbit on the reg.

Whether a Ku/Ka-band radio transceiver is cheaper than a small micro rocket with a strap-down uncooled IIR seeker or not is an open question I suppose. Given that everyone else exists between NORAD, the various BMEWS sites, PAVE PAWS, LRDR, and Fort Greely for orbital engagements, providing Delta 9 actual battle systems is somewhat trivial at this point; so SDI at least has everything in place except the actual interceptors now.
 
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I have no doubt that the KKV tech can be made even cheaper with additive manufacturing. Clementine used that tech…and I would not be surprised to find it behind the tech that allowed Delta II Mars probes that also had to be small.
It wasn't used for Mars probes.
 

Whether a Ku/Ka-band radio transceiver is cheaper than a small micro rocket with a strap-down uncooled IIR seeker or not is an open question I suppose. Given that everyone else exists between NORAD, the various BMEWS sites, PAVE PAWS, LRDR, and Fort Greely for orbital engagements, providing Delta 9 actual battle systems is somewhat trivial at this point; so SDI at least has everything in place except the actual interceptors now.
Not really and everything is not in place. It would take more ground sites and more tracking spacecraft to enable it.
 
Brilliant pebbles falls down because you only have a very limited number of pebbles in the right place at the right time.

What you need in space is an interceptor with the ability to go faster than ICBMs and with the means to destroy many at once from distance with just one interceptor. The way to do that would be reactor-pumped solid state laser array operating at as short a wavelength as possible (close to 350nm preferably for atmospheric penetration) onboard NTP-propelled heavy satellites, in a constellation of 60-120. Modern commercial SMRs can now generate 30MWe with an all-up weight of 50 tons (including fluids and gen set). With efficiencies of 76% now achievable, this could generate a 23MW laser. With the weight of the laser itself plus propellant, the overall satellite would weigh 100-150t BAE (Broad Arse Estimate). It would need to have a number of smaller 10% power laser arrays to protect the satellite itself.

That's the minimum of what you need for a space-based system, anything else is wasting time and money. It could serve a secondary role of landing enemy bombers and very short pulses being used for 'spontaneous combustion incidents' involving enemy ammunition dumps, which would be followed by much shoulder shrugging. By operating the laser in pulses, power much greater than 23MW could be achieved for very short durations but the over energy per second of charging would be less, so maybe 18-20MJ pulses lasting nanoseconds - milliseconds per second of charging.
 
Brilliant pebbles falls down because you only have a very limited number of pebbles in the right place at the right time.
Through that kinda falls down itself once you remember something.

Starlink has over 3000 satellites in the sky at the mount. Right where the Pebbles were to sit and are triple in size. And the math to properly stop the Soviets said you needed bout 10k. With 4,600 being enough to do limited strike stopping like what China or Korea can do.

The Full Pebbles shield is possible right now, just need to upgrade the designs and launch them. Will deal with far less red tape as well.

And I honestly make them bigger as well, just enough to allow them to double as a low level comm retransmit satellite for ground forces.
 
Through that kinda falls down itself once you remember something.

Starlink has over 3000 satellites in the sky at the mount. Right where the Pebbles were to sit and are triple in size. And the math to properly stop the Soviets said you needed bout 10k. With 4,600 being enough to do limited strike stopping like what China or Korea can do.

The Full Pebbles shield is possible right now, just need to upgrade the designs and launch them. Will deal with far less red tape as well.

And I honestly make them bigger as well, just enough to allow them to double as a low level comm retransmit satellite for ground forces.
Pebbles don't have that much capacity to manoeuvre to other places, and once one patch intercepts a missile of two, the rest get through. KKVs works because the missiles they're on deliver them to the correct spot, with Brilliant Pebbles you have lots of KKVs in the wrong spot and very few in range of the launch trajectories at the right time. You'd be better off saving the rockets and rocket fuel to fire them all up to the right spot at the right time.
 
A railgun might be of use to fire KKVs perhaps? Dual use cubesat-KKVs fired to celestial bodies at end of life?
 
A railgun might be of use to fire KKVs perhaps? Dual use cubesat-KKVs fired to celestial bodies at end of life?
Yes, assuming the electronics on the KKV can withstand the many thousands of g it will experience during firing, and the gun is powerful enough.
 

The Full Pebbles shield is possible right now, just need to upgrade the designs and launch them. Will deal with far less red tape as well.

And I honestly make them bigger as well, just enough to allow them to double as a low level comm retransmit satellite for ground forces.
no, it isn't. There isn't the detection, tracking, command and control systems to manage them.
 
Through that kinda falls down itself once you remember something.

Starlink has over 3000 satellites in the sky at the mount. Right where the Pebbles were to sit and are triple in size. And the math to properly stop the Soviets said you needed bout 10k. With 4,600 being enough to do limited strike stopping like what China or Korea can do.

The Full Pebbles shield is possible right now, just need to upgrade the designs and launch them. Will deal with far less red tape as well.

And I honestly make them bigger as well, just enough to allow them to double as a low level comm retransmit satellite for ground forces.
Pebbles don't have that much capacity to manoeuvre to other places, and once one patch intercepts a missile of two, the rest get through. KKVs works because the missiles they're on deliver them to the correct spot, with Brilliant Pebbles you have lots of KKVs in the wrong spot and very few in range of the launch trajectories at the right time. You'd be better off saving the rockets and rocket fuel to fire them all up to the right spot at the right time.
Yes but at the same time BPs have far fewer targets to hit since they go after missiles before they can deploy warheads/penaids, while KKVs go after the warheads themselves.
 
Yes but at the same time BPs have far fewer targets to hit since they go after missiles before they can deploy warheads/penaids, while KKVs go after the warheads themselves.
True but given the amount of rockets required to put thousands up there (4063 in the case of the SDI proposal), and the fact only a few dozen will be in the right place at the right time, you've wasted ~4000 launches. On the other hand if you spent the same money on interceptors, you'd have several thousand, so even with a 10% Pk you'd be two orders of magnitude better off. Additionally, we don't even have 10 warhead missiles anymore under the latest iteration of START, 4 max, so even that advantage is diminished. Equally, brilliant pebbles won't work on HGVs, which travel endo-atmospheric. To make space interceptors worthwhile, you need a propelled direct energy system that can hit ICBMs at launch and throughout any flight profile. It would also have dual use applications.
 
A KKV shooter is also your best bet to deal with hypersonic missiles-a second clip of flechettes.
 
Yes but at the same time BPs have far fewer targets to hit since they go after missiles before they can deploy warheads/penaids, while KKVs go after the warheads themselves.
True but given the amount of rockets required to put thousands up there (4063 in the case of the SDI proposal), and the fact only a few dozen will be in the right place at the right time, you've wasted ~4000 launches. On the other hand if you spent the same money on interceptors, you'd have several thousand, so even with a 10% Pk you'd be two orders of magnitude better off. Additionally, we don't even have 10 warhead missiles anymore under the latest iteration of START, 4 max, so even that advantage is diminished. Equally, brilliant pebbles won't work on HGVs, which travel endo-atmospheric. To make space interceptors worthwhile, you need a propelled direct energy system that can hit ICBMs at launch and throughout any flight profile. It would also have dual use applications.
Thats incorrect, under New START you can put as many warheads on a booster as you want.

Boost phase intercept is also easier, since you have a big, slow, soft, bright target without penaids, compared to trying to hit a small fast, hardened warhead amidst a cloud of penaids.
 
Thats incorrect, under New START you can put as many warheads on a booster as you want.

Boost phase intercept is also easier, since you have a big, slow, soft, bright target without penaids, compared to trying to hit a small fast, hardened warhead amidst a cloud of penaids.
True, that's new, but I don't think it changes the calculus enough to change things. Penaids are fairly easy to discriminate with modern dual-polarised radars.


Second, LRDR is “a dual-polarized, dual-range capability radar.” Marshall wouldn’t go into details, but the term “dual-polarized” is used in open literature to describe cutting-edge civilian weather radars, which are better at telling the difference between, say, rain, snow, and hail, and can even measure the size of the hailstones as they come down.

So any penaid would need to be completely identical to a warhead and hence limit the number of actual warheads carried.

That said, with the original plan of putting 4,063 pebbles into orbit, if we assume that 100 get successful intercepts, since the total deployed strategic warheads is 1,550 (and some are HGVs, so can't be stopped by pebbles), there are 476 deployed missiles, so the average number of warheads per missile is still ~3 (especially since some of the 1,550 warheads are air-launched). So you stop 300 warheads and that really is a best case scenario assuming all pebbles within range function at a Pk of 100% (as it was, none of the three pebbles tests worked). It takes either 4,063 rockets larger than GBI to put them into orbit, or less really large more expensive rockets maybe. 4,063 GBIs still beat pebbles even if only 10% hit live warheads.
 
Shotshells rip up decoys-a hit on something harder is its own tell-that is your KKV target. Shot-cloud as pinger.
 
Lasers as discriminators. That said if these dual polarisation radars are capable of telling rain from hail stones, then clearly density is in some way determinable.
 
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Whether a Ku/Ka-band radio transceiver is cheaper than a small micro rocket with a strap-down uncooled IIR seeker or not is an open question I suppose. Given that everyone else exists between NORAD, the various BMEWS sites, PAVE PAWS, LRDR, and Fort Greely for orbital engagements, providing Delta 9 actual battle systems is somewhat trivial at this point; so SDI at least has everything in place except the actual interceptors now.
Not really and everything is not in place. It would take more ground sites and more tracking spacecraft to enable it.

What is missing? The only thing I'm aware of that is lacking from GPALS, besides the Pebbles, is the Brilliant Eyes/SBIRS-LO targeting system. The latter at least seems somewhat redundant with modern FLIRs anyway, unless BE's purpose was to provide visual-EO tracking of the interceptors themselves? Is it not possible for a high powered radar like the recently upgraded PAVE PAWS or LRDR to do this?

It may not get boost-phase intercept on the far side of the planet, but it can still credibly add to midcourse and orbital intercept layers.
 
True but given the amount of rockets required to put thousands up there (4063 in the case of the SDI proposal), and the fact only a few dozen will be in the right place at the right time, you've wasted ~4000 launches.

You would launch multiple interceptors per launch, just as the constellation operators launch 50 satellites per. A lot of the work to make the system feasible was about cutting the mass per interceptor, to reduce launch costs. The actual numbers are afaik still very classified, but the wet mass of an interceptor was definitely expected to be less than a ton. On Starship, that would mean >100 interceptors per launch. And that was with 90's sensors and computers, I'd bet that they could be made even smaller today.

And with a good trajectory planning, a lot more than a few dozen will be in place to intercept. The work from the 90s estimated that 10% of the entire constellation would be able to make boost-phase intercepts against a mass launch. Another 5% or so would be able to try to make (much lower Pk) late-stage intercepts when any surviving missiles come down.

Not that I'm saying that brilliant pebbles are necessarily a good idea, just that the common arguments against them are no longer relevant. Even without Starship, with F9 routinely launching 17t in reusable mode to mid-inclination orbit, it's now fair to say that the launch costs are irrelevant. Everything else in the program is going to cost so much more, that if you do it you can hide the launch costs in the rounding errors.
 
You could probably make them as small/light as an SM-3 3rd stage with it's KKV (or even smaller). Starship could take them to orbit by the hundreds. Maybe thousands depending on how much you brought the weight down.
 
You would launch multiple interceptors per launch, just as the constellation operators launch 50 satellites per. A lot of the work to make the system feasible was about cutting the mass per interceptor, to reduce launch costs. The actual numbers are afaik still very classified, but the wet mass of an interceptor was definitely expected to be less than a ton. On Starship, that would mean >100 interceptors per launch. And that was with 90's sensors and computers, I'd bet that they could be made even smaller today.

And with a good trajectory planning, a lot more than a few dozen will be in place to intercept. The work from the 90s estimated that 10% of the entire constellation would be able to make boost-phase intercepts against a mass launch. Another 5% or so would be able to try to make (much lower Pk) late-stage intercepts when any surviving missiles come down.

Not that I'm saying that brilliant pebbles are necessarily a good idea, just that the common arguments against them are no longer relevant. Even without Starship, with F9 routinely launching 17t in reusable mode to mid-inclination orbit, it's now fair to say that the launch costs are irrelevant. Everything else in the program is going to cost so much more, that if you do it you can hide the launch costs in the rounding errors.
As a counter you could have a multi-KKV interceptor though.

I'd prefer 60 NTP satellites with reactor pumped 35MW FEL lasers operating at 351nm wavelength* with pulse or CW modes though. 30% efficiency is now possible with FEL and USNC reckon about 10t for a 50MWth (25MWe) reactor, so 50t gets you a 125MW reactor, adding the laser and propellant should give around 150t all up.

This is important because it can penetrate down to surface level which massively increases boost-phase intercepts and makes it usable for other things (such as 'smoking-related incidents').
 
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Lasers are pretty useless due to near impossibility of battle damage assessment. For "smoking-related incidents", the CIA is already doing a good enough job on the ground with plastique.

KKVs are superior to lasers for SDI, and NPBs are superior still (but worse than KKVs) since they can at least discriminate against threats and decoys by "testing" for fissiles, but threat clouds make KKVs nearly useless with anti-simulation decoys tbh. Even if the USA has very high hopes for LRDR it's unclear if it will ever actually function adequately, and it will require a pretty sizeable quantity of things that USA has trouble making on its own (semiconductor chips) from strategic materials, which are things that could be used elsewhere instead of sitting in silos at Fort Greely.

Thermonuclear Brilliant Pebbles might be the ideal, since it can handle threat clouds better than anything else, but that would require a fairly muscular and robust fissile production system. One which I don't think anyone has had since the Cold War ended.

Something like MOKV is very far from ideal since you'd need on the order of 40-50 interceptors per missile bus to ensure no leaking, but the entire US SDI network at the moment is setup to pretty much solely defend against the dizzying arsenal of...North Korea. Which entails maybe one to three ICBM launches with fairly crude ballistic decoys and chaff corridors or mylar balloons, akin to the 1970's Chevaline, I guess? It can handle that, and in the future it will be more capable against future North Korean ICBMs. It's not meant to stop a Chinese or Russian attack, obviously.

Even GPALS orbital interception layer was only abandoned when it became clear that neither Brazil nor Iran had ambitions to develop true ICBM-nuclear capability AIUI. If non-proliferation goes out the window in the coming years then the Brazilian ICBM threat might come back, though, and America has done a good-enough job developing sufficiently muscular and cheap boosters to put orbital interceptors into place if the need occurs.
 
I don't understand the point about battle damage assessment. I'd imagine that an ICBM being plugged in the rocket motor during the burn phase would provide some noticeable indicators. Ground operatives have associated risk, I would not want to be them when they are caught, assuming it is even the case.

KKVs are limited to exo-atmospheric intercepts and single use. NPBs are good but not as easy to aim.

I don't see why you would need 50 KKVs per interceptor for MOKVs
 
Accronym overload. I'm fascinated by ABM and SDI, but your abuse of accronyms is killing me. KKV ? NPB ? MOKV ?
 
I don't understand the point about battle damage assessment.

You have to know you've killed a reentry vehicle or missile bus to know to stop engaging it, obviously? The benefit of nuclear mines and kinetic kill vehicles is that they provide instantaneous feedback to whether or not a bus has been eliminated: it's in multiple pieces and partially disintegrated. A laser doesn't offer that outside of atmospheric interception. Even the SDIO knew this, which is why they didn't consider the laser useful for space-based intercept. The idea was to shoot down the ICBMs as they left their silos. It's incredibly silly but it was an incredibly silly time.

Making a space based interceptor that can attack the booster stack before it's separated the bus is both technically easier and likely cheaper to launch on the aggregate these days. Lasers as ABM systems should have died in the 1980's but launch costs made space-based interceptor/Brilliant Pebbles scary...back then.

Now it's not because a private company can fund launching tens of thousands of 50-150 kg satellites into orbit from internal revenue alone. It would be trivial for the US government to do the same because it has an actually functional, Soviet-style rocket factory these days.

KKVs are limited to exo-atmospheric intercepts and single use.

Making a trans-atmospheric space-based interceptor is easier than making a FEL capable of taking down an ICBM in all honesty. We already have them, after all, in the form of reentry vehicles: they transit into space and come back down. There's no reason one can't sit in a life jacket, with a propellant bus and solar panel stapled onto a backpack, and some sort of high power communications to a SBIRS-LO or space radar system.

At no point do lasers enter the equation. They are antiquated and made sense when 24-48 supersized chemical lasers, which can actually destroy an ICBM, would not be much more expensive than lofting 3,600-36,000 Brilliant Pebbles.

Spacecraft launch costs have tanked because SpaceX discovered the lost art of Soviet rocket factories, but the costs of large satellites still exists, so there's no hope for big SDI sats when a glorified cubesat swarm is easier in every way.

I don't see why you would need 50 KKVs per interceptor for MOKVs

Because there are 50 targets and you don't know which ones are warheads and which ones are decoys? That's the point. Decoys are genuinely hard to discriminate until they hit the upper atmosphere during their last minute or so of intercept and this hasn't changed.

Fort Greely has about 40 GBIs primarily to engage literally "a couple" ICBMs from North Korea at long range, which can be assumed to not use something silly like antisimulation decoys, but rather something like a chaff corridor that can be discriminated against by an S-band or X-band radar, and given the large number of bands involved the North Koreans may not have sufficient chaff to produce a thick corridor. Mylar balloons would likely be involved, which can be determined from ballistic coefficient over the course of about three to five minutes through the exosphere, using LRDR. I don't think anyone expects high powered radar jammers or more modern systems, as that's probably beyond North Korea's capability. Maybe.

Even if it is, SBIRS-LO can discriminate as well, which was part of its original job, and the Space Force may get more advanced systems in the coming decade or so than SBIRS-LO to do the job, as they seem to want to replace the highly expensive GEO systems with a much cheaper and more accurate LEO system. NGI might be able to expand that to five or six if they had the same number of them with multiple kill vehicles per.

Conversely, the A-235 Complex can stop about 8-12 ICBMs of MX/Peacekeeper type with its entire arsenal of 84 interceptors, but the Moscow Missile Defense Complex been partially disarmed IIRC with the retirement of the 51T6 and maybe partial disarmament of the 51T6. It might be able to stop about half as many warheads with just the short-range interceptors tbh, but a terminal intercept is the most reliable against sophisticated decoys anyway, and 51T6 might as well be a supersized Sprint.

America is simply making an assumption that North Korea's penaids will resemble the UK Chevaline's chaff clouds, and simple mylar simulation balloons, rather than more sophisticated Russian or US-type antisimulation penaids. This may or may not be correct (though it probably is) but it's what LRDR is built for, rather than A-235's assumption of highly capable MX-type penaids.

If America wanted a modern ABM system, one built to stop the most effective forms of ICBM attack, it would be better served building launch silos in suburbs and radars near its major cities, with eventual expansion to space-based interceptors for boost-phase interception.
 
I don't understand the point about battle damage assessment.

You have to know you've killed a reentry vehicle or missile bus to know to stop engaging it, obviously? The benefit of nuclear mines and kinetic kill vehicles is that they provide instantaneous feedback to whether or not a bus has been eliminated: it's in multiple pieces and partially disintegrated. A laser doesn't offer that outside of atmospheric interception. Even the SDIO knew this, which is why they didn't consider the laser useful for space-based intercept. The idea was to shoot down the ICBMs as they left their silos. It's incredibly silly but it was an incredibly silly time.

Making a space based interceptor that can attack the booster stack before it's separated the bus is both technically easier and likely cheaper to launch on the aggregate these days. Lasers as ABM systems should have died in the 1980's but launch costs made space-based interceptor/Brilliant Pebbles scary...back then.

Now it's not because a private company can fund launching tens of thousands of 50-150 kg satellites into orbit from internal revenue alone. It would be trivial for the US government to do the same because it has an actually functional, Soviet-style rocket factory these days.
There are healthy assumptions that can be made. I don't know of any warhead or bus that could withstand 30MJ (7.5kg of TNT energy equivalent) focussed on a 10cm^2 spot in a second. And it certainly wouldn't survive re-entry. That said, if the beam comes out the other side, that would probably be a good indication. Or if the conventional explosive part of the warhead is detonated. Equally, you get ~5 minutes to take out a liquid propelled ICBM like Sarmat in the burn phase, where the results will be far more obvious. Using a pulsed output it's also possible to release almost the same amount of energy in a far shorter period. This can be done by using a switchable inhibitor in the laser cavity to a allow a massive population inversion to build up before light starts being amplified, then you remove the inhibitor and you get a short pulse with massive power. The engagement times are also trivial compared to kinetic kills and the aiming and guidance simpler. You could hit a warhead with dozens of 1s burst in the time it takes for one kinetic intercept. And the Pk demonstrated for kinetic intercepts isn't great either.

There's nothing silly about boost phase intercept, it's by far the best time, especially when something like a Sarmat can carry up to 16 warheads.
KKVs are limited to exo-atmospheric intercepts and single use.

Making a trans-atmospheric space-based interceptor is easier than making a FEL capable of taking down an ICBM in all honesty. We already have them, after all, in the form of reentry vehicles: they transit into space and come back down. There's no reason one can't sit in a life jacket, with a propellant bus and solar panel stapled onto a backpack, and some sort of high power communications to a SBIRS-LO or space radar system.

At no point do lasers enter the equation. They are antiquated and made sense when 24-48 supersized chemical lasers, which can actually destroy an ICBM, would not be much more expensive than lofting 3,600-36,000 Brilliant Pebbles.

Spacecraft launch costs have tanked because SpaceX discovered the lost art of Soviet rocket factories, but the costs of large satellites still exists, so there's no hope for big SDI sats when a glorified cubesat swarm is easier in every way.
Is it? I see little evidence of that, i.e. none at all. There are no exo-atmospheric KKVs that re-enter and an increasing number of HGVs.

Chemical lasers are fine but they use fuel and have limited shots. HF wasn't a great choice though due to the long wavelength and minimum altitude limit. A FEL or solid state laser could be reactor pumped giving infinite shots, and with NTP it could both shoot and chase.
I don't see why you would need 50 KKVs per interceptor for MOKVs

Because there are 50 targets and you don't know which ones are warheads and which ones are decoys? That's the point. Decoys are genuinely hard to discriminate until they hit the upper atmosphere during their last minute or so of intercept and this hasn't changed.

Fort Greely has about 40 GBIs primarily to engage literally "a couple" ICBMs from North Korea at long range, which can be assumed to not use something silly like antisimulation decoys, but rather something like a chaff corridor that can be discriminated against by an S-band or X-band radar, and given the large number of bands involved the North Koreans may not have sufficient chaff to produce a thick corridor. Mylar balloons would likely be involved, which can be determined from ballistic coefficient over the course of about three to five minutes through the exosphere, using LRDR. I don't think anyone expects high powered radar jammers or more modern systems, as that's probably beyond North Korea's capability. Maybe.

Even if it is, SBIRS-LO can discriminate as well, which was part of its original job, and the Space Force may get more advanced systems in the coming decade or so than SBIRS-LO to do the job, as they seem to want to replace the highly expensive GEO systems with a much cheaper and more accurate LEO system. NGI might be able to expand that to five or six if they had the same number of them with multiple kill vehicles per.

Conversely, the A-235 Complex can stop about 8-12 ICBMs of MX/Peacekeeper type with its entire arsenal of 84 interceptors, but the Moscow Missile Defense Complex been partially disarmed IIRC with the retirement of the 51T6 and maybe partial disarmament of the 51T6. It might be able to stop about half as many warheads with just the short-range interceptors tbh, but a terminal intercept is the most reliable against sophisticated decoys anyway, and 51T6 might as well be a supersized Sprint.

America is simply making an assumption that North Korea's penaids will resemble the UK Chevaline's chaff clouds, and simple mylar simulation balloons, rather than more sophisticated Russian or US-type antisimulation penaids. This may or may not be correct (though it probably is) but it's what LRDR is built for, rather than A-235's assumption of highly capable MX-type penaids.

If America wanted a modern ABM system, one built to stop the most effective forms of ICBM attack, it would be better served building launch silos in suburbs and radars near its major cities, with eventual expansion to space-based interceptors for boost-phase interception.
Don't know of any missiles that carry 50 realistic decoys. And lasers are great for discrimination too.

I think they're down to 68 53T6 only now.


Which at best can stop 68 warheads with 100% Pk, or nearly 7 MXs.

I think you're also making a false assumption that pebbles would be able to intercept literally everywhere in space, it wouldn't. A layer would have two intercept windows - one with the missile going up, the other coming down. If several missiles come up from the same places, pebbles is defeated, since there won't be sufficient pebbles in one place to stop it. A 1050nm 30MW laser kills them before they leave the troposphere.
 
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I've heard about a rocket craft hovering in a hangar and laser pointing an outside target as a systems/targeting demonstration, anybody have more info on this?
Why is it that in spite of questions over the years about BP technology using laser beams, Conversation fall on its backside in discussions of actual pebble size particles to ram against ICBMs
it’s like laser beams aren’t even entertained as to what BP was?
 
I think you're also making a false assumption that pebbles would be able to intercept literally everywhere in space, it wouldn't. A layer would have two intercept windows - one with the missile going up, the other coming down.
It depends on pebble dv, which depends on how many solid rocket motors you strap to your kill vehicle. Nothing is stopping you in principle from strapping a 300kg SRM to the 100kg pebble and giving it 3 extra km/s, which should get you many degrees and many thousands of kilometers of intercept room, while also simplifying attack against ascending ICBMs.

Indeed, GPALS powerpoints very pointedly have the Star-type solid rocket motor in the 2000s because solid rocket motors are cheap compared to the rest of the pebble (particularly the sensors), and this is only more true in the modern era.

I vaguely recall art of a pebble sitting on top of a stack of two or three Star-type solid rocket motors for maximum dv and range, but I have never been able to track down the pic.
 
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Back in the 1960's they hypothesized a kinetic shield would take 100 000 interceptors. Wonder if that was calculated according to ICBM peak altitude (6000 km ?) and Earth diameter; to get a total number of cubic kilometers, probably a few billion.
Each interceptor could then "patrol" a certain amount of cubic kilometers around its position, and if an ICBM crossed that space, boom, interception.
Did it worked that way ? one interceptor, one "bubble" of space ?
 
It depends on pebble dv, which depends on how many solid rocket motors you strap to your kill vehicle. Nothing is stopping you in principle from strapping a 300kg SRM to the 100kg pebble and giving it 3 extra km/s, which should get you many degrees and many thousands of kilometers of intercept room, while also simplifying attack against ascending ICBMs.

Indeed, GPALS powerpoints very pointedly have the Star-type solid rocket motor in the 2000s because solid rocket motors are cheap compared to the rest of the pebble (particularly the sensors), and this is only more true in the modern era.

I vaguely recall art of a pebble sitting on top of a stack of two or three Star-type solid rocket motors for maximum dv and range.

Very interesting. In my space TL I intend to do something similar using Agenas - but you're right, solid-fuel kick stages are the cheapest game in town: steel tubes with fertilizer inside, that's hard to beat. See attached document.
 

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Sounds like a job for Pye Wacket! Exoatmospheric of course.

The ultimate in air combat is a MTI constellation tracking and targeting aerospace threats from tropo to low earth orbit. Something that can hit things from low orbit to the upper tropo or stratosphere, like Sandia SWERVE, would be excellent as an orbital stationed interceptor.

Brilliant Pebble goes trans-atmospheric.
 
SWERVE was a big beast and a rather costly miss, if it were to miss, while the BP program prided itself on miniaturization and large numbers though.
 
The ultimate in air combat is a MTI constellation tracking and targeting aerospace threats from tropo to low earth orbit. Something that can hit things from low orbit to the upper tropo or stratosphere, like Sandia SWERVE, would be excellent as an orbital stationed interceptor.

Brilliant Pebble goes trans-atmospheric.
MTI?
 
Arms Control Wonk Podcast: Brilliant Swarms (posted Apr 12, 2025)

View: https://youtu.be/GyFcSmm_4vc?si=iIuRg8PFRLPET1dV


They go through Booz Allen Hamilton's proposal and then some, i.e. historical references, escalation paths and some of the more likely countermeasures to deploying such a thing. Good natured conversation as usual, even as the backdrop is pretty dire all around.

 

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