Here's your DDG production* time comparison for the USA, China, and Japan. I equalized the production time per tonnage. Japan builds it's DDG's far faster than both China and the US.
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Chinese ships are not built massively faster than American ones. It only appears to be that way due to large batches being built simultaneously which allows commissions to stagger and appear at a fast rate.
Per ton, the 052D is actually built slower than the flight III. Which to be fair could just be a coincidence as the data only includes a single flight III.
You can't analyze this at a macro level tbf.
You're going to be looking at certifications of yards, training of workers, the methodologies and human factors going into the assembly work, and the general dispositions of the quality assurance team. There was a recent
incredible scandal where a large portion of the 688 and 774 force was built out of spec for SUBSAFE and has cost the Navy a huge amount of money in further monitoring of half the fast attack fleet. The difference is that the USN has that capacity innately, because it already has intensive quality assurance at every other point of the supply chain, and it might be the last thing it'll surrender.
The last major wartime condition faced by the United States Navy were in 2000 with the USS Cole. 25 years later and every Sailor, except the oldest saltiest SCPO and MCPOs, have completed training based on this event so we know the DDG-51s are fairly sturdy ships. At least we can assume that because the initial two dozen or so were produced to standard.
Nobody knows what the PLAN looks like.
It's a young country, though. When America was still young, and had the exuberance of imperial youth, it sailed the Great White Fleet around the world after rending the Spanish Empire limb from limb. It also didn't have safe food or good destroyers. The four stackers sucked compared to the stuff the Royal Navy was building at the same time. We can expect much the same from the PRC simply because that is how economics works. They have a lot of ships. They're probably not the best in the world, they may be second-rate like Spanish or French ships, and this may not matter much or it may matter a lot.
While it's possible the PRC has figured out how to go from being rural peasants of the 1980s and 1990s to the United States of 201X, skipping entirely the need for development of regulatory agencies and quality assurance because they have based themselves entirely on Confucian values tempered with Legalism, this is unlikely. It's more likely their ships are built to some standard but it's inconsistent or it's not adequate given the maritime battle experience of the PLA is genuinely non-existent.
It's ultimately going to be something for missile impacts to reveal. Either the PLAN, as most would suspect, is trailing the USN and some Allied countries in survivability (i.e. their ships will behave less like the Cole or Stark and more like the Sheffield or Fridtjof Nansen) or they are actually robust little goblins that need multiple torpedoes or LRASMs to take down. The former is the safe bet. The latter is the weapons production schedule.
Good thing the Air Force basically stopped buying JSMs entirely.
There aren't enough escorts to do all the jobs being asked. There will never be enough escorts, unless they compromise on safety, by building ships to auxiliary standard. This is lethal for a blockade running operation needing escort. The only part of the USN that can do anything in a second Pacific War is the SUBPAC and that's going to be real bad in about 10-15 years when they get hit with the same hull issues afflicting the surface navy.
At this point it's a bit of a Catch-22. Any shipbuilding done in the last five years is going to be for after the next war, and it's impossible to predict mission requirements if the U.S. loses in the Pacific, since it's impossible to predict the political fallout from that. The good news is the war will probably come before we fall off the submarine cliff.
Another W for the silent service which will probably win Taiwan and finally sink the surface navy's budget battle for good.
And in and case, since you've brought the Spanish - Spain, back in it's glory days, lost Maritime superiority exactly by building excellent quality artisan ships from precious woods, to a Dutch shitboat conveyor. Which soon enough wasn't all that shit either.
This is the general trajectory of such things, yes, or rather it was. There are ways to win without matching conventional firepower.
The U.S. has a weaker navy, so if it has to engage in a multi-year, conventional, industrial slugfest with the PLAN, it will potentially lose without support of major regional allies like Japan, France, Australia, UK and South Korea. Like the IJN did with the U.S., the immense quality of Japanese sailors and pilots didn't matter against the industrial output of America, but it also doesn't have to engage in that anymore. It hasn't needed to since 1946.
America, if it decides it's lost enough carriers, can simply bombard Chinese industrial centers until they surrender or until they cease to be a threat. The U.S. retains advantages at the highest levels of escalation that the PLA can't match yet. They may not match it before the U.S. renders itself practically immune to China's nuclear arsenal with a functional ABM system, either. There are clocks ticking on both sides there. The 1,000 warhead goal of 2029 of the PLA's simply isn't very big in the grand scheme of things.
It's rather opaque as to how much the potential threat of general nuclear war looms in the PLA's planning. It may be getting discounted entirely, but it's a very serious discussion inside DOD, and it usually waffles between "we'll keep it peri-theater and low yield" or "come into work but make sure your life insurance policy is updated, hard copied, and stored somewhere out of state in a fireproof safe".
Regardless, the U.S. would come out on top, if diminished, in a major nuclear exchange between itself and the PRC. It obviously can't make this commitment openly, because Taiwan would never shut up about it, but it's the general thought in the minds of the admirals.
Great Jacky, that’s such a well sourced and explained piece which explores the significant nuances in surface ship procurement. Like yeah, duh, anyone and their dog can see that NAVSEA needs more in house design capability but you can’t just snap ur fingers and it appears
Nationalize G&C and it appears within a few months once you've migrated everyone's corporate HR files to the BUPERS database.
I'm not sure USN could afford to wait a decade. In a decade, more ships would be requiring replacement, putting even more strain on already-limited shipbuilding resources. A line of not-perfect-but-workable frigates would lessen the problem significantly - and at least leave USN with something buildable, in case another large-scale project would meet a failure.
With immense regret, we must announce that the United States Navy has joined the Global Combat Ship program.
If their technical design makes them unaffordable, then that's as much a technical design related failure as if their technology fails to work.
The forbidden knowledge that "design to cost" is just design.