According to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the W87 program is a “modification program” which will be the “…first newly manufactured nuclear warhead in three decades, which will replace the aging W78.”[47] The W78 started its life as a warhead for the Minuteman III ICBM. Originally, the W78 was to be life extended as a hedge against problems with the W87.[48] This changed apparently mainly due to cost. The W87-1 will involve substantial changes in the nuclear physics package without nuclear testing – using insensitive high explosive and a new pit.[49] It is being designed to be “…interoperable with the USAF Mk-21 and the U.S. Navy Mk-5 reentry vehicles.”[50] Reportedly, “…10 nuclear tests were required to certify the W-87 for stockpiling….”[51] However, the W87-1 will not be subject to a nuclear test.
This is misrepresenting the history of the W78–W87–W88-1 replacement program (which to be fair was a total clusterfuck). The W87-1 was settled upon as the final choice not because of cost (it was actually
extremely expensive compared to a simple LEP of the W78), but rather because of the desire for IHE, FRP, newly manufactured warheads, lack of a need for interoperability (which collapsed because of the same reasons that every other prior interoperability initiative had collapsed), and possibly also a desire for a higher yield option.
The W87-1 involves zero substantial changes in the physics package without nuclear testing. It is literally just the W87-0, a design that was extensively tested and validated at both full and partial yields, but with newly manufactured components. The use of IHE is identical to the original design, which used IHE from the very beginning. The new pit is simply a newly manufactured pit, machined to exactly the same specifications as the original pit, using exactly the same materials. The secondary might use a HEU pusher/tamper for a higher yield, but if it does, this is not a departure from the original design – the original design was actually supposed to have a HEU pusher/tamper, and was only redesigned to omit it because of a shortage of HEU.
There is no interoperability in the W87-1. It physically cannot fit into the Mk5 RB. The Navy is on their own for a W88 successor.
If the author is getting so many major details wrong about just this one program, what else are they wrong about?
They continuously complain that costs have gone up, and attribute this to the lack of nuclear testing. But even if nuclear testing came back, we would still incur most of those costs, as most of the costs are related to the failure to maintain the capability (in terms of facilities and workforce) to manufacture nuclear weapons, and bringing back nuclear testing would not fix show-stopping problems like the lack of Rocky Flats (oops, no pit manufacturing line), or the fact that we haven't been building new nuclear weapons for decades (which is not because of a lack of nuclear testing, but because of post Cold War cutbacks in defense spending).
Even if we had never banned nuclear testing, we would still be just as screwed by the post Cold War dismantlement of the nuclear weapons establishment in the name of saving money as we are today.
Sure, nuclear testing would decrease stockpile stewardship costs to some extent...but testing wasn't actually cheap, it was quite incredibly expensive in fact, and a lot of extremely expensive stockpile stewardship activities would still be required with or without testing.
Also, without full yield testing, you would still be severely restricted in how much continued innovation is possible in weapons development. The threshold test ban treaty effectively froze the development of nuclear weapons. Sure, some innovation in primary testing was still possible afterwards, and you could do validation testing on existing weapons to a certain extent, but radical new secondary designs were no longer possible to develop through testing alone. Every single weapon in the US arsenal uses a secondary that was proof tested at full yield prior to implementation of the TTBT.
The myopic focus on nuclear testing is missing the point entirely. The nuclear enterprise is extremely expensive, and it was severely neglected after the Cold War ended. When you shut down production facilities and starve labs of work, is it any real surprise that when you finally do life extension on the remaining weapons, the cost to do it is higher than ever? Also, modern occupational health and safety standards have dramatically increased costs and timelines for all aspects of nuclear weapons work, both directly and indirectly. Restarting nuclear testing wouldn't make that go away.
The author has a few good points about the B83 and B61. I agree that retirement of the B83 without at least procuring a much more substantial number of B61-13s is probably not a wise move. But I don't agree with his crackpot theories about other nations conducting covert nuclear tests (which no reputable source agrees with him on). And I don't see the utility in the SLCM-N. There are better weapons to devote scarce budgetary resources towards.