Ah, seems like someone just can't handle different opinions. A hazardous trait.
My criteria for ignore list membership are (no need to name names):

Trolling
Frequent outright lies/BS/posturing
Obsession or sealioning* including political extremism based on weird or quasi-N*zi ideology
Ad hominem (dishonest denigration but also dishonest hero cultism)
Bad faith - i.e., shifting goalposts, inconsistent stance, obsession with 'winning' rhetorically rather than contributing knowledge
Tinfoil hat

Generally, they're rooted in 'this person has nothing new or true to tell me.'

Otherwise, not criteria for membership:

Contrary opinion sincerely held

That's just a set of suggestions... OK, I'm being passive-aggressive, but generally, life's too short for obsessives and you can always learn something from anyone else. Anyway, there are a lot of members here with extraordinary expertise and experience. It's a privilege to read their thoughts without being killed immediately afterwards, so who they vote for is not overwhelmingly important for me.

*Sealioning:
https://wondermark.com/c/1062/
 

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Yes, nonsense is a polite word in this case.

Didn't a U.S. official state that their intelligence showed there were three programs though? We just haven't seen the third.
 
First, we have to assume that the relevant US intelligence is accurate, and secondly, that the J36 really does have a completely new configuration. If you want, you can treat the two different configurations of the J36 as two separate aircraft, and then with the J-XD in the north, that makes exactly three types.
 
Yes, nonsense is a polite word in this case.

Didn't a U.S. official state that their intelligence showed there were three programs though? We just haven't seen the third.
There is also a naval program that is still in the competition phase between SAC and CAC.
 
First, we have to assume that the relevant US intelligence is accurate, and secondly, that the J36 really does have a completely new configuration. If you want, you can treat the two different configurations of the J36 as two separate aircraft, and then with the J-XD in the north, that makes exactly three types.

Ah, that is an interesting point. It is also quite likely that the J-XDS may have land and navalised variants... which could be what was being referred to.

There is also a naval program that is still in the competition phase between SAC and CAC.

Interesting! What is your source for this information?
 
I thought China doesn't do that competition style of bidding like how it's done in the US
This can be attributed to huge sales and revenue SAC and CAC have generated in two decades. This allows them each to at least pitch a next generation prototype this time like Boeing/LockMart. In J-XX days Snowy Owl never left the drawing board, lack of funds most likely being the main reason.
 
I thought China doesn't do that competition style of bidding like how it's done in the US
It's all state run and it seems every Chinese company is building something. No open competition or bidding like the US, allows to much autonomy, the Gov does not like that.
 
I thought China doesn't do that competition style of bidding like how it's done in the US
It's all state run and it seems every Chinese company is building something. No open competition or bidding like the US, allows to much autonomy, the Gov does not like that.
That's just a completely wrong take on Chinese MIC. There are fierce competition between different firms just like in the US, except the proposal is usually chosen before full scale prototype stage but sometimes a full scale mockup is built like HAIG's proposal for the Z-10 program and allegedly SAC's J-XX entry.
 
First, we have to assume that the relevant US intelligence is accurate, and secondly, that the J36 really does have a completely new configuration. If you want, you can treat the two different configurations of the J36 as two separate aircraft, and then with the J-XD in the north, that makes exactly three types.

Sorry, but the two different configurations of J-36 prototypes don't make them to three types IMO!
 
The rumors as I know seem to suggest that SAC has secured the order for the naval sixth-generation carrier-based fighter, though it remains unclear whether it will be a modified variant of the J-XDS. CAC is reportedly responsible for the unmanned part of the naval sixth-generation (which I believe refers to the tailless, lambda-wing drone with foldable wings seen at the September 3rd parade). Personally, I'm willing to call these two drones the third and fourth sixth generation fighters.
 

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No open competition or bidding like the US, allows to much autonomy
I'd be willing to assume that plenty of countless China enterprises and research bodies in the STEM and defence realm enjoy greater autonomy than many western counterparts.
 
There are fierce competition between different firms just like in the US, except the proposal is usually chosen before full scale prototype stage but sometimes a full scale mockup is built like HAIG's proposal for the Z-10 program and allegedly SAC's J-XX entry.
What's the point in having a competition between two rival companies when you don't go into the real world validation stage. If one proposal is so vastly superior than the other, then the question arises why it was a competition in the first place, when a sober assessment would have immediately come to the conclusion that Contractor A cannot deliver anything remotely close to Contractor B. Furthermore, in case of the J-35 for example, as far as I am aware, there was no bidding process. It went straight from SACs privately funded FC-31 to the PLAN requesting a refined and navalized version, the J-35. It's also debatable if XAC had any competition for the H-XX contract, given that no other design house in China has familiarity with long range aviation. So that was most likely default too. To me it seems like competitions exist but are the exception, rather than the rule. The rule being that the state asks a given enterprise to develop something, if they can deliver on that. With certain design bureaus being favoritized for certain roles (SAC and naval aviation, CAC for high end land based fighters, XAC for large long range aircraft etc). In that sense it's more similarly structured to the Russian industry, where you have UAC/AVIC to whom all subsidiaries ultimately belong, with internal rivalries. It's very distinct from the US in that sense, where you have three large private contractors, not one state owned entity under which they all belong. As a consequence in the US you have all three (Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop) bid on, let's say, a next generation fighter program. While in the PRC that gets already narrowed down to SAC and CAC beforehand, in Russia to JSC Sukhoi by default. Therefore I believe saying it's "just like in the US" extremely misleading, because the surrounding structures and the bidding process itself is most evidently very different from how the Americans conduct such business.

Now, I'd like to argue that the UAV landscape would probably offer plenty of opportunities for competition, but for one, the pie seems big enough for everyone to get a slice, and secondly I'm not deluding myself by thinking I have a grasp of the scale of the current Chinese UAV landscape.
 
Allegedly a J-36 - likely the later prototype - was seen again, but is it me or does it look a bit different?
 

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Has the J-36 been redesigned slightly Deino since the last photo's were released? Would be good to have photos of the new prototype on the ground next to the existing prototypes.
 
There's no illusion, it's just that the phone was too far away when taking the shot, so some details became seriously distorted when zoomed in. Also, according to some people, a few months ago someone even photographed a yellow-painted J36. And if that white spot in the front is a radar, then that radar is really huge, isn’t it?
 
There's no illusion, it's just that the phone was too far away when taking the shot, so some details became seriously distorted when zoomed in. Also, according to some people, a few months ago someone even photographed a yellow-painted J36. And if that white spot in the front is a radar, then that radar is really huge, isn’t it?
It is guaranteed to be big when the nose is so friggin large to start with. However, you need to keep in mind that they still need space for the cheek EOTS and side looking radars.
 
Has the J-36 been redesigned slightly Deino since the last photo's were released? Would be good to have photos of the new prototype on the ground next to the existing prototypes.


I don't think so and as @Blitzo added at the SDF correctly ...

It would look about as expected if accounting for:
- distance of imagery
- automatic post processing/AI enhancement

In other words, it is an image with basically no particular value except for acknowledging "maybe this is a real image".

... but still - if my memory serves me correctly - we have not that many images of the new / revised prototype!
 
I thought the J-XDS is a naval design, based on the nose landing gear. It has the wide spaced wheels to fit over the launch shuttle and the landing gear looks a little too robust for a plane that just uses runways, IMHO.
 
The J-XDS is speculated to be a naval fighter Sundog, but there is no official proof yet.
 
The J-XDS prototype we've seen so far is not a carrier-based aircraft. It lacks foldable wings, and its robust landing gear could be due to it being heavier than conventional fighters. It might have a carrier-based variant, or there will be another next gen fighter as rumored.
 
The J-XDS prototype we've seen so far is not a carrier-based aircraft. It lacks foldable wings, and its robust landing gear could be due to it being heavier than conventional fighters. It might have a carrier-based variant, or there will be another next gen fighter as rumored.
So does Rafale.
 
I thought the J-XDS is a naval design, based on the nose landing gear. It has the wide spaced wheels to fit over the launch shuttle and the landing gear looks a little too robust for a plane that just uses runways, IMHO.
iirc some time last year the Guancha trio talked about this in a podcast, and the broad message then was that SAC was working in collaboration with PLAN personnel at least to some degree in the J-XDS design process, and it "wouldn't be exactly mind-blowing" if a carrier-borne version were to grow out of it. To me that sounds like the J-XDS is not a naval fighter in its current form but has elements that lend it to becoming one relatively easily.

Note that as usual such open source info should be taken with a pinch of salt.
 
Quite Schwerter_105, given time I think that there will be a naval fighter based on the J-XDS but with sutable modifications for carrier operations like strengthend undercarriage and tail hook to name but two.
 
I think people will take a closer look at FATE/ICE in the coming months.
The FATE/ICE thread was never well discussed given the impact of the overall FWV effort three decades ago and what little discussion there was got zero’d by the NGAD / F-47 / -XX threads. FATE/ICE is incredibly rich and while I’ve been spent dozens of hours reading them, this seems like an area of research just waiting for the definitive book - maybe you could write it, @quellish

The sad part is 10 years ago most of those links were still live but now most are 404’d
 
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The FATE/ICE thread was never well discussed given the impact of the overall FWV effort three decades ago and what little discussion there was got zero’d by the NGAD / F-47 / -XX threads. FATE/ICE is incredibly rich and while I’ve been spent dozens of hours reading them, this seems like an area of research just waiting for the definitive book - maybe you could write it, @quellish
My buddy who works for Boeing did highlight the importance of those studies
 

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