So, there’s no competition whatsoever. The Kaan will be available starting in 2028, but the TurAF urgently needs any fresh additions it can get, like, yesterday yesterday.
That's my issue. I remember this date, and it's just two years(26 months) away. Without any clarity for engines.
This is shorter than it takes to reach IOC for an already delivered aircraft. For example, JAS-39E IOC,
a2a only, is slated for 2027, and those already were finished and delivered last week.
Kaan, putting it mildly, isn't quite there yet; I frankly wonder if 2 flights of first prototype even count to flight testing program anymore: P1 appears to be completely different, and there is no clarity about engines beyond testing batch yet. I.e. depending on what P0 was, "in gripens" Kaan may not even be in SAAB's 2015.
On the other hand, for EF2000, the introduction will begin in 2026, so first TAF(not RAF liaison) pilots will be ready like in ~2027, and 2028 will be more of IOC date for the type in TAF.
For a two decades (in service)old Eurofigher.
As such, while Kaan remains as a national flagship program, it isn't hard to make a conclusion that
at least for 2028-2030 it got shifted. At least, because delays happen - Altay is national flagship program as well, for 1.5 decade at this point; we still await deliveries.
I honestly expect Kaan more as a 2035 capability(=IOC for first unit with internal carriage), and that is if absolutely nothing goes wrong throughout the development:
-couple years for airframe test campaign,
-couple years for system testing, basic weapon integration and release trials,
-a few years to deliver sufficient number of actual production aircraft to t&e and first combat units, develop manuals and tactics, train instructors
-train pilots, ground crew, then whole units and force how to use LO aircraft.
As such, when compared to 2028 expectations, Eurofighter deal emerges as a midterm substitute.
Even to 2035, given that Eurofighter procurement with option can reach almost 100 a/c, is almost 10 a/craft a year, with additional expenses for its ecosystem (distinct from Ozgur/Kaan one). This is normal new procurement tempo for a medium sized air force, especially on top of expected LW procurement and and entire force level f-16 upgrades.
I.e. TAF-2030 is Eurofighter, Ozgur and Kizilelma. Kaan is more of TAF-2040.