Hopefully this helps refocus US modernization efforts which includes reconstitution of Cold War levels of warhead deployment and new production.


Here's Danwatch's own public facing report (at the time of writing, really slow to open but eventually does - wondering whether Russians are doing some retaliatory DDOSsing); it seems to be mainly about upgrading Russian nuclear base facilities, but at a really detailed level, really consequential stuff. I suspect that with the current Russian regimes' mindset they cannot help but rework their latest upgrades. That will impose much strain on their already stretched resources. Electricity, water, what have you, all essential to the security and functioning of these sites, available for research.

I've seen Russian databases being exploited for all sorts of (semi-) open source research; comparing apples and oranges here, but this is right up there in terms of impressiveness to unmasking GRU operatives' years-long trails through Europe, blowing up munitions depots and poisoning defectors. Kudos, Danwatch, painstaking work from single document level up. Hopefully Western intelligence agencies have also been proficient enough to exploit these resources but there are examples of them lagging behind open source efforts.
 
France has embarked on a $1.7 billion renovation of an air base in remote hills in the east of the country so it can handle nuclear-armed bombers.

 
I wonder if France, given the deteriorating geopolitical situation with Russia will design and build a new set of ICBMs?
 
Does this mean that France will one day be operating a squadron or two of nuclear bombers? Especially to replace the Rafales in the nuclear strike role? Considering the current problems around the world.
 
Does this mean that France will one day be operating a squadron or two of nuclear bombers?

The last time France had nuclear bombers was back in the early 1990s before they retired their Mirage-IVs.
 
A bomber force would certainly help France with the nuclear deterrence mission and with longer range than the Rafale it could strike targets deeper into hostile territory.
 
Does this mean that France will one day be operating a squadron or two of nuclear bombers? Especially to replace the Rafales in the nuclear strike role? Considering the current problems around the world.
Sure, when the SCAF/FCAS is deployed.
 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has criticised the US proposal for a new nuclear agreement, reiterating that it will not stop enriching uranium.

Iranian negotiators are set to respond in the coming days to what the White House called a "detailed and acceptable" plan presented at talks last Saturday.

US reports say it proposes that Iran halt all production of enriched uranium - which can be used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons - and instead rely on a regional consortium for supplies.

As supreme leader, Khamenei has final say on the country's most important issues, including a potential nuclear deal.
 
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Moscow, June 3 (AFP) Jun 03, 2025
Moscow said Tuesday that Iran had the "right" to a peaceful nuclear programme, a day after US President Donald Trump said he wanted to rule out "any" enrichment of uranium by Tehran in a new nuclear pact.

Uranium enrichment has been a key point of contention in five rounds of talks since April to ink a new accord that would replace the deal abandoned by US President Donald Trump during his first term in 2018.

"Under our potential Agreement - WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM!" Trump said on his Truth Social network on Monday.

Asked about Trump's comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Countries have the right to peaceful energy, the use of peaceful atomic energy must take place exclusively under the strict control of the International Atomic Energy Agency."

"We believe that countries should keep this right," he added.

Allies Iran and Russia have deepened military ties amid Moscow's offensive on Ukraine.

Peskov also repeated Moscow's support for talks "aimed at a peaceful resolution" of the standoff between Iran and the United States.
 

Given that the PRC is working overtime to rapidly and massively increase the size of its' nuclear-arsenal along with Russia's intransigence I'd say that the US needs to start rebuilding its' own nuclear arsenal.
 
Given that the PRC is working overtime to rapidly and massively increase the size of its' nuclear-arsenal along with Russia's intransigence I'd say that the US needs to start rebuilding its' own nuclear arsenal.

Or at least rearm its existing missiles with existing warheads. There should be enough W76 and W78 in storage to roughly double current RV inventory post New START, though I do not know what is involved to bring those back in service.
 
Via the Washington Post, a guest editorial on the new nuclear age from the Federation of American Scientists:

An excerpt:
Today’s global nuclear landscape is far more complicated and, in many ways, more precarious. More countries and more advanced technologies are involved. Weapons can fly farther, faster, from more places. Information, accurate or false, can move even more quickly. Autocrats and extremists hold positions of power in nuclear-armed countries. Nuclear threats, once taboo, are now increasingly common. And the last nuclear arms control treaty still in force between Russia and the United States expires in February.

Many of the most dangerous ideas from the Cold War are being resurrected: lower-yield weapons to fight “limited” nuclear wars; blockbuster missiles that could destroy multiple targets at once; the redeploying of a whole class of missiles once banned and destroyed by treaty. On top of this, countries are testing new ways to deliver these weapons, including nuclear-powered cruise missiles that can fly for days before hitting their targets; underwater unmanned nuclear torpedoes; fast-flying, maneuverable glide vehicles that can evade defenses; and nuclear weapons in space that can attack satellites or targets on Earth without warning.
YMMV.
 
I feel it's a bit sussy that we know there's new construction in Israel's KMG (Kiryat Mekhkar Gar'ini, meaning Nuclear Research Complex, aka nuclear reactor in Dimona) and that realistically any nuclear capable nation would want to increase and diversify its arsenal, yet estimates on Israel's nuclear weapons remain unchanged for decades.

Anyone got some info on recent developments?
 
The global nuclear watchdog has found Iran has failed to meet its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
In reality, said obligations were usually more honored in the breach than in the observance.

 

Israel is considering launching a military strike against Iran in the coming days without American support, Western officials say.

The officials said fears of either no deal or a weak deal between Donald Trump and the Islamic Republic to curtail its nuclear programme had forced Israeli strategists to consider a unilateral attack against Tehran.

It comes as the UN nuclear watchdog’s board of governors found that Iran had broken its non-proliferation agreement for the first time in 20 years.

The governors demanded Iran provide answers “without delay” in a long-running investigation into uranium traces found at several locations that Tehran has failed to declare as nuclear sites.

In response to the ruling, the Islamic Republic said it had no choice but to respond by establishing a new enrichment facility in a “secure location”.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran will not abandon its right to uranium enrichment because of mounting frictions in the region, adding that a “friendly” country had alerted Tehran over a potential military strike by Israel.
 
Going a bit off-topic for a moment; I missed the passing of an important figure from the Cold War last month:
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May 14, 2025
Richard L. Garwin, an architect of America’s hydrogen bomb, who shaped defense policies for postwar governments and laid the groundwork for insights into the structure of the universe as well as for computer marvels like touch-screen monitors, died on Tuesday at his home in Scarsdale, N.Y. He was 97.
His death was confirmed by his son Thomas.
A polymathic physicist and geopolitical thinker, Dr. Garwin was only 23 when he built the world’s first fusion bomb. He later became a science adviser to many presidents, designed Pentagon weapons and satellite reconnaissance systems, argued for a Soviet-American balance of nuclear terror as the best bet for surviving the Cold War, and championed verifiable nuclear arms control agreements.
While his mentor, the Nobel laureate Enrico Fermi, called him “the only true genius I have ever met,” Dr. Garwin was not the father of the hydrogen bomb. The Hungarian-born physicist Edward Teller and the Polish mathematician Stanislaw Ulam, who developed theories for a bomb, may have greater claims to that sobriquet.
In 1951-52, however, Dr. Garwin, at the time an instructor at the University of Chicago and just a summer consultant at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, designed the actual bomb, using the Teller-Ulam ideas. An experimental device code-named Ivy Mike, it was shipped to the Western Pacific and tested on an atoll in the Marshall Islands.


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Rest In Peace.
:(
 
Greetings. This might be a stupid or uneducated question, but I was wondering if Fogbank has anything to do with ripple design, ripple 'devices', or any innovations that came from their development in general ?

Fogbank is IIRC the codename for the material used as a channel-filler in the warhead's radiation-channel.
 

Iran is preparing retaliatory strikes on US military bases in the Middle East if Washington joins Israel’s campaign against its nuclear facilities, Iranian officials said.

Tehran would target American forces in Iraq first, then expand attacks to other Arab countries hosting US bases, two senior Iranian officials told the New York Times.

It comes as Donald Trump considers backing Israeli strikes on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear site, which so far has been spared damage.

Officials also warned that Iran may mine the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint, potentially disrupting international shipping and triggering a spike in energy prices.

The Houthi rebels, armed by Iran, would also be expected to resume missile strikes on vessels in the Red Sea.

US military transport planes have been spotted flying across the Atlantic, signalling a ramp-up in logistical operations.

American officials told the Telegraph that Mr Trump was more bullish about joining the conflict, which has been less deadly than feared.
 
I did some checking on the S3 and it was an IRBM not an ICBM but it wouldn't hard for France to develop an ICBM if it were so inclined.
I don't see it. Russia ain't that far away. Paris to Moscow isn't even 3000 km.
 
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that his country won’t surrender and warned that any U.S. military intervention would bring irreparable consequences.
His comments come after President Trump, who administration officials said is considering a range of options—including a potential U.S. strike against Iran—said on social media that the U.S. knew the location of Iran’s leader but was choosing not to take any action, and then said, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by telephone on Tuesday, a White House official said. The U.S. military has built up forces in the region in recent days. A third U.S. Navy destroyer entered the eastern Mediterranean Sea and a second U.S. carrier strike group is heading toward the Arabian Sea.
While the Pentagon says the military buildup is purely defensive, it puts the U.S. on a firmer footing to join Israeli attacks on Iran should Trump decide to do that. Alternatively, it could be a tactic to pressure Iran to capitulate or make concessions.
Israel and Iran have continued to exchange fire, and the death toll in Iran rose above 450, according to a human-rights group. In Israel, 24 people have died as a result of Iranian strikes.
 
B61-13 gravity bomb reaches first production milestone ahead of projected timeline
 
I don't see it. Russia ain't that far away. Paris to Moscow isn't even 3000 km.

There's no reason why a modernised S3 couldn't be developed into an ICBM or even better a clean-sheet ICBM design, it's well within France's technological capabilities.
 
There's no reason why a modernised S3 couldn't be developed into an ICBM or even better a clean-sheet ICBM design, it's well within France's technological capabilities.

No reason to develop one either, unless China is the target set.
 
There's no reason why a modernised S3 couldn't be developed into an ICBM or even better a clean-sheet ICBM design, it's well within France's technological capabilities.
But why?
 
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WASHINGTON/DUBAI/JERUSALEM, June 19 (Reuters) - Israel struck a key Iranian nuclear site on Thursday and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital, as President Donald Trump kept the world guessing about whether the U.S. would join Israel in airstrikes seeking to destroy Tehran's nuclear facilities.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to press on with Israel's biggest ever attack on Iran until his arch enemy's nuclear programme is destroyed, said Tehran's "tyrants" would pay the "full price".

 

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