Current Nuclear Weapons Development

Big_Zukini said:
I feel it's a bit sussy that we know there's new construction in Israel's KMG (Kiryat Mekhkar Gar'ini, meaning Nuclear Research Complex, aka nuclear reactor in Dimona) and that realistically any nuclear capable nation would want to increase and diversify its arsenal, yet estimates on Israel's nuclear weapons remain unchanged for decades.

Anyone got some info on recent developments?
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The Israelis have been very successfully tight-lipped about the size of their nuclear arsenal. Not even admitting that they have one, even.

I still guess somewhere in the 200 weapon range, between cruise missiles and free-fall bombs.

See, the thing is that up to a certain ... "critical mass" of warheads**, people are inclined to use their nukes. Once you have about 200 of them, you cease wanting to use them. Having more than about 200 warheads does not improve your security situation.

** Pun fully intended.


NMaude said:
I did some checking on the S3 and it was an IRBM not an ICBM but it wouldn't hard for France to develop an ICBM if it were so inclined.
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Start with the M5/M51 SLBM. Place in land silo. Done. 6-10x 100kt at 8,000-10,000km.
 
bobbymike said:
www.heritage.org

America Must Prepare to Test Nuclear Weapons

The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992.REF However, given the deteriorating security environment, it may need to do so once again.
www.heritage.org www.heritage.org
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I'd like to see some tested in space (other side of the Moon)

France was the last in the West to test?

Short overview

This is odd:

A five-dimensional (5D) Langevin approach developed by an international team of researchers, including members from Science Tokyo, accurately reproduces complex fission fragment distributions and kinetic energies in medium-mass mercury isotopes (180Hg and 190Hg). The model successfully captures the unusual "double-humped" fragment mass distribution observed in mercury-180 and offers new insights into how nuclear shell effects influence fission dynamics—even at higher excitation energies than previously thought—advancing our understanding of fission in the sub-lead region.

Anything to this?
www.nextbigfuture.com

Confirmation of ultra-high energy molecules with 500 times the bond energy of a triple carbon bond | NextBigFuture.com

Metastable Innershell Molecular State (MIMS), an innershell-bound ultra-high-energy molecule, was previously proposed to explain a ∼40% efficiency of
www.nextbigfuture.com www.nextbigfuture.com

Chemonuclear Rocket

Chemonuclear Rocket
forum.nasaspaceflight.com forum.nasaspaceflight.com

Sad
phys.org

Fear built the nuclear bomb—only trust can ensure it is never used again

The world entered its nuclear epoch 80 years ago on August 6, 1945. The US dropped an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing between 70,000 and 140,000 civilians by the end of that year.
phys.org phys.org
phys.org

Survivors' voices 80 years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki sound a warning and a call to action

Eighty years ago, in August 1945, the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were incinerated by the first and only use of nuclear weapons in war. By the end of that year, approximately 140,000 people had died in Hiroshima and 74,000 in Nagasaki.
phys.org phys.org
 
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Yikes remember “red mercury” and pure fusion weapons speculation?

That said I’ve been pushing for massive research into HEDMs they can be true game changers in modern war.
 
There is zero need for the US to resume testing of nuclear weapons, it will only benefit everyone else.
 
Desertfox said:
There is zero need for the US to resume testing of nuclear weapons, it will only benefit everyone else.
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Except that all the US models are 30something years old, and were verified using ~40yo sensors.

I'd like to have updated models with better sensors for a few shots.
 
NMaude said:
While that would be fun it would also violate the 1963 partial test-ban treaty.
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As well as the Outer Space Treaty.

Then again, IMO the OST needs to be scrapped, so that you can have nuclear propulsive charges for moving asteroids around.
 
I tumbled across this video from OzGeology about an earthquake in Iran that has just occurred and him explaining why it's not a sign of an underground nuclear-test:


A magnitude 5.1 earthquake just struck Iran, leading to many people speculating it might be the result of a nuclear test. As a geologist, I decided to set the record straight by analyzing multiple factors to explain why this earthquake was purely tectonic and not the result of an explosion. In today's video is also an explanation of how to identify earthquakes generated by nuclear weapons explosions.​
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Thumbnail Photo Credit: Google Earth, Image Landsat / Copernicus, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, GEBCO. This image was overlaid with text, and then overlaid with GeologyHub made graphics (the image border & the GeologyHub logo).​
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Sources/Citations:
[1] U.S. Geological Survey
[2] Gaebler, P., Ceranna, L., Nooshiri, N., Barth, A., Cesca, S., Frei, M., Grünberg, I., Hartmann, G., Koch, K., Pilger, C., Ross, J. O., and Dahm, T.: A multi-technology analysis of the 2017 North Korean nuclear test, Solid Earth, 10, 59–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-59-2019, 2019., CC BY 4.0.
[3] Rezaeian, M., A. Carter, N. Hovius, and M. B. Allen (2012), Cenozoic exhumation history of the Alborz Mountains, Iran: New constraints from low-temperature chronometry, Tectonics, 31, TC2004, doi:10.1029/2011TC002974.
[4] Anggraini, Silviana & Daryono,. (2021). Earthquake detection and location for Earthquake Early Warning Using Deep Learning. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 1951. 012056. 10.1088/1742-6596/1951/1/012056. , CC BY 3.0.
[5] Steinberg, A., Gaebler, P., Hartmann, G. et al. Deep Neural Networks Based Denoising of Regional Seismic Waveforms and Impact on Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Tests. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-024-03..., CC BY 4.0.​
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0:00 Iran Earthquake
0:55 Moment Tensor
2:31 Earthquake Depth
2:57 Waveform Analysis
3:49 Final Analysis
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I wasn't even aware there'd been a new earthquake in Iran but if one knows anything about Iran's geology earthquakes happen there very frequently but given Iran's nuclear ambitions and the current war with Israel I can see why some might be concerned that Iran had hastily tested a nuclear-warhead underground.
 
NMaude said:
but given Iran's nuclear ambitions and the current war with Israel I can see why some might be concerned that Iran had hastily tested a nuclear-warhead underground.
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Yep. Perfectly understandable concerns, but easily disproved.

Another fun one is all the mining explosions that are by total tonnage well into "could be a nuke" class, but by the nature of the hundreds of smaller booms makes it easy to identify as mining-related instead of a nuke.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Except that all the US models are 30something years old, and were verified using ~40yo sensors.

I'd like to have updated models with better sensors for a few shots.
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We have ways to verify said models... Ways that other nuclear nations do not. Resumption of nuclear testing will benefit others far more than us.
 
Desertfox said:
We have ways to verify said models... Ways that other nuclear nations do not. Resumption of nuclear testing will benefit others far more than us.
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You can test implosion lenses all day long. You can even live-fire them, they're not more than a couple hundred pounds of HE going boom.

I'm not comfortable with the models the US has for advanced nuclear warhead designs, since their models are old and the sensors used to validate such models were older still.
 
NMaude said:
While that would be fun it would also violate the 1963 partial test-ban treaty.
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Also there are Chinese relay satellites on the far side of the moon for their moon missions. Taking these out with nuclear explosions would be probably regarded by China as a direct attack upon themselves.
 
Scott Kenny said:
You can test implosion lenses all day long. You can even live-fire them, they're not more than a couple hundred pounds of HE going boom.

I'm not comfortable with the models the US has for advanced nuclear warhead designs, since their models are old and the sensors used to validate such models were older still.
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And we do have ways to validate said models...
 
Desertfox said:
And we do have ways to validate said models...
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Under Bush II part of his nuclear enterprise modernization there was general funding for Advanced Concept Initiatives research into advanced warheads designs.

Apparently, I’ve never found the exact language in the relevant defense bill, Congress zeroed out funding and added to the NNSA budgetary approving legislation that the laboratories were forbidden from spending ANY APPROPRIATED funds on new warhead designs.

Edit: In preparation for the W93 this language was removed is my understanding.
 
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Just because we don't publicize the extent of our capabilities, doesn't mean they don't exists...
 
Desertfox said:
Just because we don't publicize the extent of our capabilities, doesn't mean they don't exists...
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That would be a very interesting validation of nuclear fission and fusion configurations without getting any fission or fusion events.
 
James1978 said:
I believe the silos were dismantled back in 1996-1999.
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They were.

Scott Kenny said:
They'd be better off digging new silos, anyways.
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Definitely and the Sentinel project shouldn't have even bothered with trying to modernise the Minuteman silos, just design and build new silos with their associated support infrastructure.
 
Grey Havoc said:
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11:06AM

Iran vows to continue nuclear programme​

Iran’s government said it had “taken the necessary measures” to ensure the continuation of its nuclear programme despite stirkes by the US and Israeli against key facilities.
“We have taken the necessary measures and are taking stock of the damage,” said the head of Iran’s atomic energy organisation, Mohammad Eslami, in a statement aired on state TV.
“Plans for restarting (the facilities) have been prepared in advance, and our strategy is to ensure that production and services are not disrupted,” he added.
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Let's not bring out the nuclear genie... If only we didn't have atrocious leadership that killed the diplomatic option in 2017.
 
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