Current Nuclear Weapons Development

Forest Green said:

Officials: IOC for SLCM-N expected by 2034, shift in command may occur for E-6B mission | InsideDefense.com

Since the establishment of a nuclear-armed, sea-launched missile program office in March 2024, the Navy remains on track to achieve a key milestone by next year, as it assesses potential warhead options and researches how to best integrate the missile into Virginia-class submarines, a service...
insidedefense.com insidedefense.com

Air Force scraps plans to reuse ICBM silos for Sentinel, 10 years into program | InsideDefense.com

The Air Force's intercontinental ballistic missile modernization program will not be able to reuse existing silos as it had been planning since the beginning of the effort 10 years ago, potentially threatening the cost of a program that's already known to be massively over budget.
insidedefense.com insidedefense.com
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This is such a scandal. How did they not know the silos wouldn't work?

Because if they chose to ignore the evidence that using the old silos was an unworkable idea - what other mistakes is the program hiding?
 
zevets said:
This is such a scandal. How did they not know the silos wouldn't work?
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Because they don't do any major inspections of the silos, and were trying to find every way to "cut costs" out of what they knew was going to be a very expensive program.

Classic Congressional manipulation.

"It's only a new missile, it's going to reuse all the existing infrastructure."
Program gets approved.
Officer who pitched the original plan to Congress is either promoted or retired.
New officer reveals to Congress that the silos "were in worse shape than we thought, but since you've already spent blah many billions on the program..."


zevets said:
Because if they chose to ignore the evidence that using the old silos was an unworkable idea - what other mistakes is the program hiding?
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They also chose to ignore the need for new wiring between silos and Launch Control Centers, which was actually an even bigger (edit: and known) issue than the condition of the silos.
 
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The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) has completed the assembly of the first B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb, nearly a year ahead of schedule.
Source with pictures:
www.energy.gov

NNSA completes assembly of the first B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb ahead of schedule

Major nuclear stockpile milestone assembled almost a year ahead of target date through streamlined production
www.energy.gov www.energy.gov
 
Isn't that a simple economy of force calculation from more circles being superior to slightly bigger circles? My understanding is blast radius scales to the cube root of yield, making larger numbers of small weapons much more efficient than the same cost and materials' worth of fewer larger weapons.
 
dannydale said:
Isn't that a simple economy of force calculation from more circles being superior to slightly bigger circles? My understanding is blast radius scales to the cube root of yield, making larger numbers of small weapons much more efficient than the same cost and materials' worth of fewer larger weapons.
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Yes, but some people still subscribe to the thesis bigger is better regardless of other practical considerations.
 
Sferrin said:
"B61-7 version it is intended to replace, the highest yield setting on which is reportedly between 340 and 360 kilotons. The reported maximum yield of the B61-12 is 50 kilotons.

The B61-7 is one of the most powerful nuclear gravity bombs in the U.S. stockpile now. "

That's just sad.
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I still think you hold a news conference talking about near earth objects and their threat, announce a multi-departmental program to develop a massive Mt nuke (as part of a new family of warheads) along with a new heavy lift solid rocket (I’ve always liked the proposed all solid Antares 25k to LEO) silo based at Vandenberg. You revitalize the nuclear enterprise attract new talent to the labs etc. (younger generations who want to save the world constructively not throw paint on art or block traffic)

At this conference you “invite” allies to join you in saving the world together.

Who could argue with that?
 
dannydale said:
Isn't that a simple economy of force calculation from more circles being superior to slightly bigger circles? My understanding is blast radius scales to the cube root of yield, making larger numbers of small weapons much more efficient than the same cost and materials' worth of fewer larger weapons.
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Sure, but people have 3 different major calibers for a reason, not counting SOF inventories. Thing is, explosives don't stack, so you have to build different stuff for different applications. Else everyone would be building DavyCrocketts.
 
Grey Havoc said:
www.bbc.com

Iran's Khamenei doubts US nuclear talks will lead to agreement

"We don't think it will lead to any outcome," the supreme leader warns, saying the US is making "outrageous" demands on uranium enrichment.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
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www.spacewar.com

Iran says to keep enriching uranium, even with a deal

Tehran (AFP) May 18, 2025 - Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday his country would keep enriching uranium with or without a deal with world powers, despite ongoing negotiations over its nuclear programme.
www.spacewar.com
 
Sferrin said:
"B61-7 version it is intended to replace, the highest yield setting on which is reportedly between 340 and 360 kilotons. The reported maximum yield of the B61-12 is 50 kilotons.

The B61-7 is one of the most powerful nuclear gravity bombs in the U.S. stockpile now. "

That's just sad.
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There are very few targets that can't be dealt with by a single 340-400kt within 30m (or less, IIRC most JDAMs arrive within 10m).

Note that the unclassified plan for Mod-13s is only "a few dozen", while we're talking ~400-500 Mod-12s.
 
I feel it is worth pointing out to avoid future confusion B-61 mod12/13 only use INS, not GPS. It might not be the same as JDAM; it might be more accurate…though AFAIK the claimed accuracy is only 30m.

But I think it important to note that these weapons do not use GPS, despite popular press reports to the contrary.
 
The B83 can only be delivered reliably by 18 B-2s which can't really carry much else when they do. The B61-13 can be carried by just about everything, including the ~1,000 F-35s...
 
Josh_TN said:
I feel it is worth pointing out to avoid future confusion B-61 mod12/13 only use INS, not GPS. It might not be the same as JDAM; it might be more accurate…though AFAIK the claimed accuracy is only 30m.

But I think it important to note that these weapons do not use GPS, despite popular press reports to the contrary.
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As I understand it, the spec for the Mod12/13 was that it was supposed to have JDAM-level accuracy, just with an earth-shattering kabewm.

And a good INS should have at least 30m accuracy over a few seconds of flight time.
 
www.telegraph.co.uk

Israel-Gaza latest: Netanyahu ‘preparing Iran strike without Trump’s backing’

Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without Donald Trump’s backing, according to reports.
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without Donald Trump’s backing, according to reports.

In what would be a major break with Washington, intelligence sources told CNN that the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear site “has gone up significantly in recent months”.

US negotiations with Tehran aimed at dismantling the regime’s nuclear programme could make a strike more likely if the talks do not lead to the removal of all of Iran’s uranium, sources added.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has long been under pressure to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially after Tehran fired ballistic missiles at Israel last October.

Such a move could risk triggering a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, which the US has sought to avoid since the Gaza war began.

Mr Trump has threatened military action if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran began last month.
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10:05AM

Oil prices soar amid reports Israel plans to strike Iran​


Oil prices surged in response to reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, putting the deal that Donald Trump has been pursuing with Tehran at risk.
Brent prices leapt by around 1.4pc, bringing the cost of a barrel to $66.24. West Texas Intermediate also surged by as much as 3.5pc.
It comes after CNN last night reported that, according to several US intelligence officers, Israeli leaders were considering striking Iran, in a move that would squeeze supply and spark further unrest in the region.
The Middle East supplies around a third of the world’s crude oil. Nuclear talks between the US and Iran could also pave the way for more barrels being released, however Israel’s plans have thrown this into question.
Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey at Dutch bank ING warned: “Such an escalation would not only put Iranian supply at risk, but also in large parts of the broader region.
The prospect of higher oil prices will add to worries over inflation in the UK.
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www.telegraph.co.uk

Traders bet on just one rate cut after UK inflation shock - latest updates

Traders are betting that the Bank of England will cut interest rates just once more this year after inflation surged to its highest point since early 2024.
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
www.defensenews.com

Air Force test-launches unarmed Minuteman III missile

The Air Force conducts regular tests of its Minuteman III ICBMs, as it looks for ways to bring costs under control for the successor Sentinel missile.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

breakingdefense.com

Integration on Virginia-class subs the 'greatest risk' for nuclear sea-launched cruise missile: Navy official - Breaking Defense

"This will be a whole new infrastructure that we have to stand up and so getting all of those things in place, getting the weapon system done, but as importantly, getting the fleet trained ... that's going to be the one of the challenging parts of this," said Vice. Adm Johnny Wolfe, director of...
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
 
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www.twz.com

Russia Fielding New Nuclear-Armed Air-To-Air Missiles: U.S. Intel

A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type. A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
 
Forest Green said:
www.twz.com

Russia Fielding New Nuclear-Armed Air-To-Air Missiles: U.S. Intel

A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type. A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
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Here's the source document, which is probably shorter than TWZ rambling on about whatever:


Page 15:

WMD Capabilities
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Russia is expanding its nuclear forces by adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to- air missiles and novel nuclear systems.
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Russia probably maintains a nuclear stockpile of about 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 non-strategic warheads.
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And that's it, no further information.
 
I wonder what the use case is. It is not like there are waves of closely packed fighters or bombers these days.
 
Josh_TN said:
I wonder what the use case is. It is not like there are waves of closely packed fighters or bombers these days.
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Speculation in comments along lines of targetting stealthy contacts detected by bistatic radar, with only an approximate position.

Or maybe EMP against 5th Gen aircraft?

Big kill zone against hypersonic targets?
 
Kiltonge said:
Speculation in comments along lines of targetting stealthy contacts detected by bistatic radar, with only an approximate position.

Or maybe EMP against 5th Gen aircraft?

Big kill zone against hypersonic targets?
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EMP makes no sense as a tactics weapon; it requires a high altitude, high yield explosion to achieve any significant effect.

But wide area attacks against a target that could only vaguely have its position fixed makes absolute sense in the face of an active stealth bomber program.

Hypersonic defense less so; the U.S. does not have any currently and when it does deploy such, they likely will be relatively inexpensive air breathing weapons. Using nukes against cheap hypersonic conventional weapons will not be cost effective or practical.

But the stealth bomber argument does make sense; you might detect something in very low frequencies that you could not generate a target track for. In that case, guidance mode would basically be command guidance/INS. In fact I would think Kinzhal with course change updates would be the quickest, easiest way to develop that capability. Or even sans updates, just having a way to rapidly forward position and altitude detonation parameters to the MiG-31Ks.
 
Defense Updates has just put out a video concerning the B61-13 now that it's production:


The first production example of the new B61-13 nuclear bomb has been completed.
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US Department of Energy, in a social media post , stated, “[The] Pantex Plant has completed the first production unit of the B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb – designed to strengthen the flexibility and credibility of America’s nuclear deterrent.This major milestone for America’s nuclear stockpile was completed a year ahead of schedule!”
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Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a statement, “Modernising America’s nuclear stockpile is essential to delivering President Trump’s peace through strength agenda.The remarkable speed of the B61-13’s production is a testament to the ingenuity of our scientists and engineers and the urgency we face to fortify deterrence in a volatile new age. It was my honor today to stamp the first completed unit at the Pantex Plant in Amarillo, Texas, where all the efforts of NNSA’s labs, plants, and sites culminated in this amazing milestone. This achievement signals American strength to our adversaries and allies alike.”
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In this video, Defense Updates analyzes how the new B61-13 nuclear bomb provides US military a devastating option?
#defenseupdates #B61-13 #usmilitary
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Chapters:
0:00 TITLE
00:11 INTRODUCTION
01:31 SPONSORSHIP - NordVPN
02:05 B-61 MOD 13 OVERVIEW
03:42 B-61 MOD 13 TECHNICAL DETAILS
07:01 ANALYSIS
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Forest Green said:
www.twz.com

Russia Fielding New Nuclear-Armed Air-To-Air Missiles: U.S. Intel

A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type. A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
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I’m trying to find the podcast but there’s a Chinese/Russian nuclear enterprise analyst saying Russia plans to have 7000 warheads to deploy by 2035 many of them brand new designs with very low yield on different tactical systems.
 
Kinda hard to imagine Russia increasing its warhead count by ~60% with all of the other projects it has cooking.
 
The key term here that matters is whether it's strategic or not (basically yield).
Mod 13 is borderline close to strategic is what has people on alert.
 
Seragina said:
The key term here that matters is whether it's strategic or not (basically yield).
Mod 13 is borderline close to strategic is what has people on alert.
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Mod 13 is absolutely strategic, built off the mod 7 which is ~350 kT…roughly equivalent to W78 or W87 and far above W76. I would argue mod 12 has sufficient accuracy to make 50kt strategic as well, depending on target. That should still crack anything that has not been hardened >10,000psi.
 
Kiltonge said:
Speculation in comments along lines of targetting stealthy contacts detected by bistatic radar, with only an approximate position.

Or maybe EMP against 5th Gen aircraft?

Big kill zone against hypersonic targets?
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Poorly localized stealthy targets would be my first guess.

Hypersonic targets is a possibility. I know the US was using nukes due to the closing speeds on the ABMs, for example.




Josh_TN said:
But wide area attacks against a target that could only vaguely have its position fixed makes absolute sense in the face of an active stealth bomber program.
[...]
But the stealth bomber argument does make sense; you might detect something in very low frequencies that you could not generate a target track for. In that case, guidance mode would basically be command guidance/INS. In fact I would think Kinzhal with course change updates would be the quickest, easiest way to develop that capability. Or even sans updates, just having a way to rapidly forward position and altitude detonation parameters to the MiG-31Ks.
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That's the best argument, IMO. "We know there's a stealth bomber somewhere in this 100x100km block of sky, we have low-frequency returns with zero higher-frequency returns!"



Josh_TN said:
Hypersonic defense less so; the U.S. does not have any currently and when it does deploy such, they likely will be relatively inexpensive air breathing weapons. Using nukes against cheap hypersonic conventional weapons will not be cost effective or practical.
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When the US was working on homeland defense ABMs, the problem was closing speeds. Hypersonics definitely have the same closing speeds issue.



NMaude said:
Defense Updates has just put out a video concerning the B61-13 now that it's production:
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Huh. I was expecting the Mod12 and Mod13 to have glide strakes like the JDAMs.
 
Flyaway said:
Video of the GT-253 Minuteman III launch.

View: https://youtu.be/qDoea0iamwE
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Defense Updates has just put up a video about that launch too:


The U.S. Air Force carried out a midnight test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. The missile was launched at 12:01 a.m. Pacific Time by Vandenberg Space Force Base in California from Air Force Global Strike Command.​
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Travelling over 4,200 miles at speeds exceeding 15,000 miles per hour or Mach 20 , the missile reached its target near the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Sensors at the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site—managed by the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command—tracked its trajectory and collected radar, optical, and telemetry data during its final phase to evaluate performance.​
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Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command said,“This ICBM test launch underscores the strength of the nation’s nuclear deterrent and the readiness of the ICBM leg of the triad. This powerful safeguard is maintained by dedicated Airmen—missileers, defenders, helicopter crews, and their support teams—who protect our nation and its allies.”According to the US Air Force, the missile was randomly selected from Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana and outfitted with a Mark 21 High Fidelity Reentry Vehicle, which in operational conditions would carry a nuclear warhead.​
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In this video, Defense Updates analyzes why the test firing of Minuteman-III ICBM is an unambiguous signal to adversaries?
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Chapters:
0:00 TITLE
00:11 INTRODUCTION
01:45 SPONSORSHIP - NordVPN
02:19 RADAR is critical for THAAD
03:07 THE UPGRADED RADAR
06:32 ANALYSIS
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