Current Nuclear Weapons Development

dnyuz.com

North Korea Says It Is Building Underwater Nuclear Weapons Silos

SEOUL — North Korea broke its silence on a recent flurry of missile tests on Monday as its state media
dnyuz.com

news.yahoo.com

N. Korea says recent tests were 'tactical nuclear' drills, overseen by Kim

North Korea's recent missile tests involved "tactical nuclear" drills to simulate hitting the South, and were overseen by leader Kim Jong Un in response to US-led joint military exercises in the region, state media said Monday.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
 
www.telegraph.co.uk

Nuclear weapons workers ballot for walkout over pay

The Atomic Weapons Establishment develops and maintains the warheads for the Trident nuclear deterrent
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

The AWE, which is headquartered in Aldermaston, Berkshire, was previously owned by a consortium of defence and aerospace companies but was absorbed by the Ministry of Defence in July 2021.

Prospect complained that the arms-length body had failed to take advantage of the “associated freedoms on pay awards” that came with its new status.

On Wednesday the Ministry of Defence confirmed that the AWE is not currently classed as an “important public service” under industrial action laws, meaning the quango does not have to meet higher thresholds for vote turnouts.
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Hammer Birchgrove said:
CFE said:
The estimates of the Israeli arsenal vary wildly. Israel will publicly deny having any warheads. Watchdog groups claim as many as 200 (based primarily on the claims of Mordecai Vanunu, a less-than-reliable source.) Pentagon estimates published by Rowan Scarbrough guess there are 60-80 warheads.
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Why is Mordecai Vanunu "a less-than-reliable source"? ???
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I worked for a US Department of Energy National Laboratory. Let's just say that the 200 is closer to the truth than Scarbrough's 60-80.
 
Biden avoids radical shift in new nuclear weapons policy (ft.com, registration or subscription may be required)

The Biden administration has declared that the “fundamental” purpose of US nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear attacks on America and its allies, a new policy that avoided a more radical shift towards a lower level of deterrence that was opposed by allies in Europe and Asia.

The Pentagon on Thursday released the Nuclear Posture Review — a document that each administration produces to outline the cases under which the US would use nuclear weapons. The NPR said the US would “only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances” to defend the interests of the nation in addition to allies and partners.

The report will be welcomed by US allies from Tokyo to Berlin who at one point became alarmed that President Joe Biden might declare a narrower set of situations under which he would consider using the weapons.

The NPR said officials had considered several options, including a “no first use” policy and a narrow formula known as “sole purpose” — in which the US would only use nuclear weapons to prevent or respond to a nuclear attack — but decided against them.

It said both options would have resulted in “an unacceptable level of risk” given the non-nuclear capabilities being developed by nations that could inflict extreme harm on the US and its allies.

European and Asian allies had strongly urged Washington not to weaken its declaratory policy in a way that could embolden China and Russia and reduce the deterrent effect of what is known as the US nuclear umbrella.

Matthew Kroenig, a nuclear weapons policy expert at the Atlantic Council think-tank, said some administration officials had advocated that the US should adopt a “sole use” policy.

“As a nod to that position, the NPR states that the ‘fundamental purpose’ of nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear attack, even while recognising that they fill other roles,” said Kroenig. “The change to ‘fundamental purpose’ is a wordsmithing exercise that will have no practical implications for actual strategy.

In rejecting “sole purpose, the NPR said the US recognised that some allies and partners were “particularly vulnerable to attacks with non-nuclear means that could produce devastating effects”. But in language that could cause concern, the NPR said the administration retained “the goal of moving to a sole purpose determination”.

While the decision will reassure allies, non-proliferation groups were unhappy at the decision not to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in US defence policy.

[snip]
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The US also released its national defence strategy, which said it faced a “decisive decade” and that China would remain the “most consequential strategic competitor” for several decades. “The most . . . serious challenge to US national security is the PRC’s coercive and increasingly aggressive endeavour to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences,” the report said.

While the document ranks China as the US’s main long-term defence focus, it describes Russia as an “acute threat” that must be deterred, with its invasion of Ukraine providing an example of the importance of the US’s efforts to preserve international alliances, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

[snip]
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www.defensenews.com

Biden National Defense Strategy tackles China, Russia, nuke deterrence

The administration’s first National Defense Strategy highlights Beijing’s growing military strength.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com
 
www.dw.com

North Korea fires missile near Japan – DW – 11/03/2022

North Korea continued missile launches for a second day, including a potential ICBM that prompted evacuations in Japan. The West condemned Pyongyang's unprecedented display of military firepower.
www.dw.com www.dw.com

www.reuters.com

North Korea fires suspected ICBM, warns U.S. against 'dangerous' choices

North Korea fired multiple missiles into the sea on Thursday, including a possible failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), prompting the United States and South Korea to extend air drills that have angered Pyongyang.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
focuswashington.com

Ukraine War a ‘Warm-Up’, Admiral Warns

"This Ukraine crisis that we're in right now, this is just the warm-up," said Richard. "The big one is coming.
focuswashington.com focuswashington.com


The Ukraine crisis is just the “warm-up,” and the U.S. is losing its competitive edge in nuclear weapons capabilities, U.S. Strategic Command head Admiral Charles Richard warned in a speech last week.

“As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking,” he said. “It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are.”

The Pentagon also presented a dire situation in the nuclear capabilities between U.S., Russia, and China in its National Defense Strategy paper published on October 27.

“Our principal competitors continue to expand and diversify their nuclear capabilities, to include novel and destabilizing systems, as well as non-nuclear capabilities that could be used to conduct strategic attacks,” the Pentagon paper said.

“They have demonstrated little interest in reducing their reliance on nuclear weapons. By contrast, the United States is focused on the timely replacement of legacy fielded systems that are rapidly approaching their end of service life.”
 
No offense to anyone here, but I suspect the head of the Strategic Command is probably in a better position to know the relative size of the PRC nuclear stockpile.
 
Forest Green said:
They already have at least 1,000 deliverable warheads now IMO.
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There was a 2014 or 2015 article in Los Alamos Lab’s magazine that detailed China’s (along with Russia/US) nuclear weapons infrastructure.

China’s is larger in area and personnel than both others combined AND we know very little about it.

I’ve written for years, since at least New Start, that we made it very cheap for China to match our arsenal. I also used to think they’d be satisfied with that. Now I’m not so sure they might build to match both our and Russia’s arsenals.
 
Josh_TN said:
No offense to anyone here, but I suspect the head of the Strategic Command is probably in a better position to know the relative size of the PRC nuclear stockpile.
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You'd expect him to but from the wording I think he's guessing too TBH.

Ploughshares has it at 350, but they have only 3 warheads on the DF-41s and only 1 warhead on all DF-31 variants including AG and none on DF-5Cs, DF-15s and DF-17s, and only 1 warhead for every 5 DF-26 launchers.


If we assume the missile count is right and fully load them and assume 1 warhead per launcher for MRBMs/IRBMs etc.

DF-41s 18x10 = 180
DF-31A 36x5 = 180
DF-31AG 36x8 = 288
DF-15 ???
DF-17 18x1 = 18
DF-26 100x1 = 100
JL-2 72x3 = 244

TOTAL = 1010 (That's really a minimum calculated from a 2 year old missile count - assumed to be correct at time - and ignores all aircraft bombs, cruise missiles, and weapons of less than 1000km range.)
 
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