Ukrainian Ballistic Missile Development and Deployment

Archibald said:
I thought the russians had bombed the heck out of them, flattening the plant ?
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The main facilities in Dnipro have been hit a few times in the war (first time in June 2022 iirc, and last time by the Oreshnik last november I think). Reportedly a bunch of equipments had been moved elsewhere, probably before and during the war, as far as the Transcarpathians.
I'm not quite sure how the military side of things is doing at Yuzhnoye but I do know that they're still producing and providing new RD843/VG143 for the Vega C's Avum upper stage

https://lenta.ru/news/2024/09/14/uk...it-raketnye-dvigateli-rd-843-dlya-evrosoyuza/
 
NMaude said:
My understanding is that most Ukrainian missile factories are underground structures making them invulnerable to drone raids.
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This is wrong - there is outright not enough underground facilities to even try.
And, frankly, missile production is visibly low and often interrupted. The plan is shadow factories and strict information discipline.
 
Archibald said:
There is also a very real risk that Fire Point overstretch themselves chasing too many ambitious programs at the same time: cruise missiles and ballistic missiles and air defense.
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I suspect there is a lot of support from more well known larger firms involved with these systems. A lot of this hints at German, EU, middle eastern funding/support. FirePoint could be the body of this broader collaboration.

NMaude said:
My understanding is that most Ukrainian missile factories are underground structures making them invulnerable to drone raids.
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Very true Russian Khinzals were used to strike at some Soviet legacy sites but they failed and gave up on that since its not easy to destroy such a facility using conventional means. There are large legacy underground facilities in Ivano Frankivsk for example. Likely large facilities are being built underground or outside the country. With smaller facilities built/located anywhere
 
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This was 26 days ago but I haven’t seen it posted here.

The FSB, together with the Russian Ministry of Defense, carried out a special operation. They Struck Ukrainian facilities involved in producing the SAPSAN missile system, removing Ukraine’s capability to strike deep into Russian territory.​

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1mpwi2i/ru_pov_the_fsb_together_with_the_russian_ministry
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1mpwi2i/ru_pov_the_fsb_together_with_the_russian_ministry/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
 
ComradeVortex said:
This was 26 days ago but I haven’t seen it posted here.

The FSB, together with the Russian Ministry of Defense, carried out a special operation. They Struck Ukrainian facilities involved in producing the SAPSAN missile system, removing Ukraine’s capability to strike deep into Russian territory.​

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1mpwi2i/ru_pov_the_fsb_together_with_the_russian_ministry
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1mpwi2i/ru_pov_the_fsb_together_with_the_russian_ministry/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
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I dont think Ukraine is doing any large scale production in such surface level facilities. You can tell by the post header "removing Ukraine's capability to strike deeply into Russian territory" that it doesnt add up. Destroying some surface level facilities does nothing to underground facilities nor to facilities located outside Ukraine or the whole supply chain. For example it was revealed FirePoint will be producing solid rocket fuel related products from Denmark, how does the destruction of such facilities as in the video prevent SAPSAN from receiving solid rocket fuel if its being produced in Denmark? Even that Denmark facility may be a ruse to the actual facility which could still be located in another EU country.
 
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Would be interesting when the FP-7 and FP-9 also get into serial production. But great news the Sapsan is going into production. As well with Fire Point starting serial production of such a large missile it looks good for Fire Point's ballistic missile program
 
I was under the impression that these missiles were already in production and that the Ukrainians were stockpiling them to get ready for mass attacks on Russian targets.
 
NMaude said:
I was under the impression that these missiles were already in production and that the Ukrainians were stockpiling them to get ready for mass attacks on Russian targets.
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They said serial production hasnt yet started, so likely they have some stock from the prototypes? I also get the impression they may be further along than they publicly announce.
 
slroger said:
so likely they have some stock from the prototypes?
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Probably preproduction rounds.

slroger said:
I also get the impression they may be further along than they publicly announce.
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Very likely given that they are in a hot war with Russia, I wouldn't be surprised at all if these missiles are now in the LRIP phase.
 
In regards to Ukraine's new ballistic missiles (And new cruise missiles) after some thought it has occurred to me that Ukraine may be stockpiling them for use when winter arrives for maximum disruption given how cold those winters get.
 
I doubt there is a large stock lying around going unused - the problem with that is you risk losing large amounts in pre emptive strikes, plus I suspect there is no shorts of targets right now. But the initial introduction might be a relatively large event that targets time sensitive targets in conjunction with a major UAV/cruise missile offensive. A TBM would make an excellent defensive suppression munition for FP-5, which is basically in the same size and performance class as a military jet training aircraft. A lot of planning and suppression would be required to use that long range effectively.
 
Josh_TN said:
I doubt there is a large stock lying around going unused - the problem with that is you risk losing large amounts in pre emptive strikes, plus I suspect there is no shorts of targets right now. But the initial introduction might be a relatively large event that targets time sensitive targets in conjunction with a major UAV/cruise missile offensive. A TBM would make an excellent defensive suppression munition for FP-5, which is basically in the same size and performance class as a military jet training aircraft. A lot of planning and suppression would be required to use that long range effectively.
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Couldnt they have large storage sites in other EU countries? I think this is part of whats pressuring Russia to start poking the boundaries by sending drones into Polish airspace.
 
Josh_TN said:
I doubt there is a large stock lying around going unused - the problem with that is you risk losing large amounts in pre emptive strikes, plus I suspect there is no shorts of targets right now.
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ukraine already has underground ammunition bunkers to store its missiles and drones to make it significantly harder for the Russians to destroy them while in storage.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1998718847340171669
View: https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1998718847340171669?s=20


https://www.twz.com/land/if-zelensk...missile-for-first-time-is-true-its-a-big-deal
Zelensky confirms Ukraine has been using the Sapsan to strike targets in Russia. Also claims some of the strikes the Russians have been reporting as Neptune were actually done by Sapsan.

This would confirm they are in some form of serial production. At the end of the day these have to be poduced in mass to have any meaningful effect. With a range of 750km they could be used to strike GBADs and clear ways for cruise missiles.
 
slroger said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1998718847340171669
View: https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1998718847340171669?s=20


https://www.twz.com/land/if-zelensk...missile-for-first-time-is-true-its-a-big-deal
Zelensky confirms Ukraine has been using the Sapsan to strike targets in Russia. Also claims some of the strikes the Russians have been reporting as Neptune were actually done by Sapsan.

This would confirm they are in some form of serial production. At the end of the day these have to be poduced in mass to have any meaningful effect. With a range of 750km they could be used to strike GBADs and clear ways for cruise missiles.
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The next stage is to make them air-launched.
Maybe we need to start talking about Ukrainian integration options.
 
Forest Green said:
It's ~4 tons though, what would carry it?
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Is it really 4 tons though? I've done a 2 minute search and couldn't find any reference to its size or mass.

Online data on the Hrim 2 says range of approximately 300-500km, and a warhead of approximately 500kg. This matches the characteristics of the Lora which is a 1.6 ton missile and was converted to an air launched variant which an F-16 can dual pack.

If I'm missing info that was posted here I'm not gonna ask you to dig it up for me. Just give me a direction and I'll do my search.
 
Big_Zukini said:
Is it really 4 tons though? I've done a 2 minute search and couldn't find any reference to its size or mass.

Online data on the Hrim 2 says range of approximately 300-500km, and a warhead of approximately 500kg. This matches the characteristics of the Lora which is a 1.6 ton missile and was converted to an air launched variant which an F-16 can dual pack.

If I'm missing info that was posted here I'm not gonna ask you to dig it up for me. Just give me a direction and I'll do my search.
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It's closely based on the Iskander-M, so that is the basis of my assumption.
 
Big_Zukini said:
The next stage is to make them air-launched.
Maybe we need to start talking about Ukrainian integration options.
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Ukraine has nothing that could carry such a missile. There are plenty of targets that can be hit with ground launch.
 
Big_Zukini said:
At the risk of sounding dumb, isn't the Kinzhal an air launched Iskander?
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More or less. Certainly in terms of mass and dimensions. If Sapsam is ~500kg warhead with ~500km of range as claimed, then it has similar performance to Iskander and it is hard to imagine it weighs significantly less.
 
Big_Zukini said:
The next stage is to make them air-launched.
Maybe we need to start talking about Ukrainian integration options.
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I think that may come from the FP series of ballistic missiles, not sure they will adapt Sapsan for air launch over creating a specific ballistic missile suitable to carry on their aircraft. Its quite large possibly larger than the Iskander

Big_Zukini said:
Is it really 4 tons though? I've done a 2 minute search and couldn't find any reference to its size or mass.

Online data on the Hrim 2 says range of approximately 300-500km, and a warhead of approximately 500kg. This matches the characteristics of the Lora which is a 1.6 ton missile and was converted to an air launched variant which an F-16 can dual pack.

If I'm missing info that was posted here I'm not gonna ask you to dig it up for me. Just give me a direction and I'll do my search.
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They are using Sapsan which is even longer range than Hrim 2 at least 700km. But I agree air launched ballistic missiles could be made to fit Ukraine's current fleet.
 
The alternative to ALBMs would be more numerous cruise missiles (mass over speed). ERAM missiles (CoAspire RAACM/Zone5 Rusty Dagger) could potentially be carried on tandem or triple ejector racks since they are supposed to be 500 lbs. The US was to sell as many as 840 by next October, with test items already provided. Though with this administration, who knows if the program continues or not. Roll saving throw.
 
Josh_TN said:
More or less. Certainly in terms of mass and dimensions. If Sapsam is ~500kg warhead with ~500km of range as claimed, then it has similar performance to Iskander and it is hard to imagine it weighs significantly less.
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Evidently you don't need a 4 ton missile to deliver 500kg to 500km.
 
Big_Zukini said:
Evidently you don't need a 4 ton missile to deliver 500kg to 500km.
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Probably not, but when you mention LORA and it's quoted 430km range, it should be noted that it comes with various warhead sizes, so I'm not sure whether 430km is achieved with the maximum 570kg warhead. But yes, it depends on construction (steel and/or titanium vs carbon or kevlar composite) and trajectory (aero-ballistic, exo-atmosheric MET, or HGV with either of the previous 2 trajectory options prior) and whether the warhead is independant and number of stages.

If Zelensky’s Claim Of Using Homegrown Ballistic Missile For First Time Is True, It’s A Big Deal​

https://www.twz.com/land/if-zelensk...missile-for-first-time-is-true-its-a-big-deal
 
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Big_Zukini said:
Evidently you don't need a 4 ton missile to deliver 500kg to 500km.
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If it is ballistic missile, then yes one probably does need a ~4 tonne missile.

EDIT: if you mean air launched, then no, you do not. But Sapsan does appear to have that range from ground launch. Other smaller ALBMs can certainly reach that far with that warhead when launched at altitude and speed. But Ukr probably has a dearth of these weapon types (only maybe Samson right now) and likely will not ever produce as many as it wants for the ground launch. It is hard to imagine they invest in air launch, especially if the U.S. ends up delivering large numbers of air launched cruise missiles with similar range.
 
NMaude said:
SS-26 Stone
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= 9K720 Iskander
NMaude said:
= AS-24 Killjoy
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= Kh-47M2 Kinzhal <edit> Kh-47M2 apparently incorrect, correct designation undetermined - Kinzhal will do for now </edit>

I had to look those up to make sure.
One of the reasons for NATO reporting names was that precise Soviet designations were not always known to NATO member states.
Search for Iskander or Kinzhal, and you will get more hits than for their corresponding NATO codes/reporting names. Even on this site.

Another NATO reporting name: Fagin. Which resolves to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20Rarely used, I would say.
 
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