Their plan is to procure replacement fighter in 3 stages. First stage is the Gripen E/F acquisition announced last year, replacing their oldest falcons from the '80s. Second stage will see the replacement of their F-5s between 2031 and 2035. After that, the remaining F-16A/Bs between 2037 and 2046.Will the Gripen E even still be in production in 2034? I agree it makes sense to consolidate around a single type, unlike Thailand's regional neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia who seem to like Fighter jet soup.
Problem is the Thais have a lot of aircraft to replace. Unless their air force is going to shrink radically, or the F-5s, alphajets and early Blk F-16s are going to stay around longer, then an additional 12 Gripen E, which are different enough already to the C currently in service, is not going to be enough.
I expect a second airframe to bulk out the fleet, something like the FA-50, makes more sense but will the Thais have the funding...
I'm pretty sure they will want something stealthier for the third stage, though as for the second stage, 60 Gripems ordered by Flygvapnet is more than enough to keep the production running until Thailand proceeds with the second stage programme.
Flygvapnet was originally to receive Gripen E/F from 2018 until 2027. This was the plan in 2013, but since then the plan changed and the first Gripen actually came in 2023. If the procurement plan was exactly delayed by 5 years, and yearly production plan hasn't, that would mean that the production of Swedish Gripens will run at least until 2032. Now add to that 12 Thai Gripens. This also makes sense if we consider the fact that Sweden will only decide with how they'll proceed with their next generation fighter after 2030.
As for the Brazilian Gripens, it is not the question of if but when they will place the follow-on order, though they've licensed it and produces them locally, as in, it is not just CKD or SKD kits being imported from Sweden and being assembled in Brazil, but has a high percentage of parts manufactured in Brazil, so if Sweden wants to keep the production line at SAAB running, they'll need to find new customers.
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