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Hi,

It seems we did not have any thread opened yet on this Russian ASAT system tested a few months back, making headline news these days… Now fixed. Feel free to add info as it comes.

A.
 
A few references of interest:

WIKIPEDIA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-235_anti-ballistic_missile_system

2019
Amanda Macias & Michael Sheetz, "Russia conducted another successful test of an anti-satellite missile, according to a classified US intelligence report," CNBC, Published 4:20 PM ET Fri, 18 Jan 2019 Updated 4:27 PM ET Fri, 18 Jan 2019
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/russia-succeeds-in-mobile-anti-satellite-missile-test-us-intelligence-report.html

2018
Ankit Panda, "Russia Conducts New Test of 'Nudol' Anti-Satellite System". The Diplomat.
https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/russia-conducts-new-test-of-nudol-anti-satellite-system/

Graff, Garrett M., "The New Arms Race Threatening to Explode in Space", Wired, June 26, 2018). Russia has repeatedly flight-tested a so-called direct ascent weapon, the PL-19 Nudol ballistic missile, which could strike objects in orbit, although it hasn’t conducted a live attack on an orbiting satellite.

"Москва получит новую противоракетную защиту". Известия (in Russian). 2018-02-21
https://iz.ru/710845/nikolai-surkov-aleksei-ramm/moskva-poluchit-novuiu-protivoraketnuiu-zashchitu

2016
Kyle Mizokami, "Russia Tests a New Missile That Can Destroy Satellites — The Nudol could target U.S. navigation and communications satellites", PopularMechanics, Dec 21, 2016, https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/news/a24455/russia-anti-satellite-weapon/

2015
Bill Gertz, "Russia Conducts Fifth Test of New Anti-Satellite Missile — Third successful flight test of satellite-killing weapon", Washington Free Beacon" / freebeacon.com , https://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-conducts-fifth-test-new-anti-satellite-missile/

Bill Gertz, "Russia Flight Tests Anti-Satellite Missile — Moscow joins China in space warfare buildup", Washington Free Beacon" / freebeacon.com 2 December 2015.
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-conducts-successful-flight-test-of-anti-satellite-missile/

bmpd, "Противоракеты", January 17th, 2015, https://bmpd.livejournal.com/1137442.html

2014

2013
 
bmpd, "Противоракеты", January 17th, 2015
source: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/1137442.html

"
В блоге автора веб-ресурса "Вестник ПВО" Саида Аминова выложен фрагмент из корпоративного календаря ОАО "Концерн ПВО "Алмаз-Антей" на 2015 год со впервые опубликованным в открытом источнике изображением, предположительно, подвижной пусковой установки П222 дальнего эшелона (изделие 14Ц033) перспективной системы противоракетной обороны по теме "Нудоль" .

Напомним, в своем годовом отчете за 2013 год входящее в состав "Алмаз-Антея" ОАО «Конструкторское бюро специального машиностроения» сообщало, что по теме «Нудоль» им было получено шасси МЗКТ для [опытной] установки П222 и "обеспечено изготовление оборудования установки в согласованном объеме".

"
source: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/1137442.html

A.
 

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I wonder why they call Anti-Sat missile , If CNBC report is to be believed it flies at 3000 km range at average speed of 3 km/sec.

The sats at LEO travel at speed of around 8 km/sec and if this can hit Sat , it can hit a Warhead at mid course phase of trajectory
 

Space Command press release:

 
To be fair, it is likely that SM-3 Blk2A is a mobile LEO ASAT system by another name.
 
Well, satellite images (from 01/21/2019):

95822_original.jpg


 
To be fair, it is likely that SM-3 Blk2A is a mobile LEO ASAT system by another name.
Any evidence? The SM-3 they used in Burnt Frost was supposedly a one-off. Granted, it was a software mod, that should be able to be rolled out relatively quickly (took them all of six-weeks to create it from scratch), but there is no evidence it's present in deployed systems.
 
To be fair, it is likely that SM-3 Blk2A is a mobile LEO ASAT system by another name.
Any evidence? The SM-3 they used in Burnt Frost was supposedly a one-off. Granted, it was a software mod, that should be able to be rolled out relatively quickly (took them all of six-weeks to create it from scratch), but there is no evidence it's present in deployed systems.

I said ‘likely’; I’ve no evidence. But the latent capability is likely a software upgrade away, assuming it isn’t loaded by default. There’s no reason not to think the weapons have this ability given the large amount of LEO satellites that the PRC has deployed to track the USN (over a dozen) and that as far as I know the US has no moratorium on ASAT weapons or declaration that it doesn’t operate an ASAT system.

The previous shoot down was SM-3 Blk 1. Blk 2 has the wider 21” second motor; the older missile was supposed to barely be capable of reaching a target in a degraded LEO orbit.
 
To be fair, it is likely that SM-3 Blk2A is a mobile LEO ASAT system by another name.
Any evidence? The SM-3 they used in Burnt Frost was supposedly a one-off. Granted, it was a software mod, that should be able to be rolled out relatively quickly (took them all of six-weeks to create it from scratch), but there is no evidence it's present in deployed systems.

I said ‘likely’; I’ve no evidence. But the latent capability is likely a software upgrade away, assuming it isn’t loaded by default. There’s no reason not to think the weapons have this ability
You mean other than it's been specifically said they only modified the one SM-3?
 
To be fair, it is likely that SM-3 Blk2A is a mobile LEO ASAT system by another name.
Any evidence? The SM-3 they used in Burnt Frost was supposedly a one-off. Granted, it was a software mod, that should be able to be rolled out relatively quickly (took them all of six-weeks to create it from scratch), but there is no evidence it's present in deployed systems.

I said ‘likely’; I’ve no evidence. But the latent capability is likely a software upgrade away, assuming it isn’t loaded by default. There’s no reason not to think the weapons have this ability
You mean other than it's been specifically said they only modified the one SM-3?

In 2008, maybe it specifically was. Would you assume nothing has changed if that claim came from Russia a dozen years ago?
 
To be fair, it is likely that SM-3 Blk2A is a mobile LEO ASAT system by another name.
Any evidence? The SM-3 they used in Burnt Frost was supposedly a one-off. Granted, it was a software mod, that should be able to be rolled out relatively quickly (took them all of six-weeks to create it from scratch), but there is no evidence it's present in deployed systems.

I said ‘likely’; I’ve no evidence. But the latent capability is likely a software upgrade away, assuming it isn’t loaded by default. There’s no reason not to think the weapons have this ability
You mean other than it's been specifically said they only modified the one SM-3?

In 2008, maybe it specifically was. Would you assume nothing has changed if that claim came from Russia a dozen years ago?
Given our track record of squandering brilliant ideas I would be astonished if the code even exists anymore.
 
US Space Command statement:


Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test creates significant, long-lasting space debris
By U.S. Space Command Public Affairs Office

PETERSON SPACE FORCE BASE, Colo. –

Russia tested a direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) missile on Nov. 15, 2021, Moscow Standard Time, that struck a Russian satellite [COSMOS 1408] and created a debris field in low-Earth orbit. The test so far has generated more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and will likely generate hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris.

“Russia has demonstrated a deliberate disregard for the security, safety, stability, and long-term sustainability of the space domain for all nations,” said U.S. Army Gen. James Dickinson, U.S. Space Command commander. “The debris created by Russia's DA-ASAT will continue to pose a threat to activities in outer space for years to come, putting satellites and space missions at risk, as well as forcing more collision avoidance maneuvers. Space activities underpin our way of life and this kind of behavior is simply irresponsible.”

USSPACECOM's initial assessment is that the debris will remain in orbit for years and potentially for decades, posing a significant risk to the crew on the International Space Station and other human spaceflight activities, as well as multiple countries' satellites. USSPACECOM continues to monitor the trajectory of the debris and will work to ensure all space-faring nations have the information necessary to safeguard their on-orbit activities if impacted by the debris cloud, a service the United States provides to the world, to include Russia and China.

“Russia is developing and deploying capabilities to actively deny access to and use of space by the United States and its allies and partners,” Dickinson added. “Russia's tests of direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons clearly demonstrate that Russia continues to pursue counterspace weapon systems that undermine strategic stability and pose a threat to all nations.”
 
Has anyone listed what altitude the intercept was at?

EDIT: Satellite's original orbit apparently was fairly circular in the low 400's, not sure what its current apogee would have been.
 
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The crew was awakened and directed to close the hatches to radial modules on the station, including Columbus, Kibo, the Permanent Multipurpose Module, Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, and Quest Joint Airlock. Hatches between the U.S. and Russian segments remain open.

An additional precautionary measure of sheltering the crew was executed for two passes through or near the vicinity of the debris cloud. The crew members made their way into their spacecraft shortly before 2 a.m. EST and remained there until about 4 a.m. The space station is passing through or near the cloud every 90 minutes, but the need to shelter for only the second and third passes of the event was based on a risk assessment made by the debris office and ballistics specialists at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston.
 
Article includes quote from Bill Nelson amongst others

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said he was outraged at the incident.
"With its long and storied history in human spaceflight, it is unthinkable that Russia would endanger not only the American and international partner astronauts on the ISS, but also their own cosmonauts" as well as Chinese "taikonauts" aboard China's space station, he said in a statement.

And Ben Wallace, UK Defence Secretary, said the test "shows a complete disregard for the security, safety and sustainability of space".

"The debris resulting from this test will remain in orbit putting satellites and human spaceflight at risk for years to come," he added.

Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59299101
 
I actually don't have a problem with ASATs. You could hit a target from above if you bothered to spend the money so as to limit debris. But Putin doesn't want to spend money on space-even on an all Russian station. I say ISS was the real target here. Hole that-splash it in point Nemo and now he can gut space spending. He wants to kill Russian Space like fools in America want to kill SLS...to get its budget! Only now Musk will have to adopt a Mike Griffin 'skip-LEO' approach anyway. Poor Rogozin is no doubt furious, because this put cosmonauts at risk...not smarmy journalists. Time for Putin to be dealt with-by his own men. What Putin did in putting his own cosmonauts in harm's way would be like Stalin spitting on Zhukov after Kursk!
 
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First a hole, then thruster "accidents"...funding cuts. This has nothing to do with ASAT tests-Putin could have targeted a Progress already on its way down, after delivering Prichal say. No biggie. Instead...he targets something right over ISS. Putin doesn't like Rogozin standing up to him, so he gets a grunt on the ground to target an old sat...not knowing about ISS being near. Best I can guess, this was a Mob Boss tired of an underlings new car, so's he has other underlings smash out its windshield. And since we have a meteor shower as cover...Putin can say "what a bad hailstorm...sorry about your Zil limo...now go do somthing practical, 'comrade' and get those stars out of your eyes."---signed, Vladimir Proxmire.....
 
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Eh all major powers have tested ASATs. I would like to get more data on this from multiple sides before acting indignant.
 
Chinas test was 355km. The Indian test was 270km. The US test was 250km.

I’m unaware of the altitude of this test, but ISS is at roughly 420km and this was stated to be above that. Kosmos 1408 is stated as having been in an orbit of 480 kilometers in a quick google search, though I can’t find apogee/perigee info. However the original orbit was fairly circular.

So one of these things is clearly not like the others, even compared to the PRC test.
 
Updated plot in inertial coordinates showing the estimated intercept location (where densest debris region will be) and the orbit of the Chinese space station (green), Of course what's missing in this plot is height above the Earth

View: https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1460355721699246087

Rogozin and NASA Chief Nelson Discuss By Phone the Safety of ISS Crews.

19:51 11/16/2021 (updated: 20:19 11/16/2021)

MOSCOW, November 16 - RIA Novosti. Roscosmos CEO Dmitry Rogozin said that he had a telephone conversation with NASA head Bill Nelson, they agreed to move on and ensure the safety of the crews at the International Space Station .

"At 19.00 Moscow time, I had a detailed telephone conversation with the head of the NASA administration, Senator Bill Nelson . The parties stated ... Okay. In short, and in Russian, we are moving on, ensuring the safety of our crews on the ISS, making joint plans," wrote Rogozin on Telegram .

He added that he hopes to see the head of NASA soon and is waiting for him in Moscow , since he himself cannot visit the United States .

On Monday, space debris flew past the ISS several times at intervals of an hour and a half. Cosmonauts and astronauts hid in the Soyuz MS-19 and Crew Dragon spacecraft docked to the station.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that a cloud of 1,500 debris appeared as a result of Russia's testing of anti-satellite systems. US space command claims that a right ascension anti-satellite missile was tested on November 15, which hit the Russian Kosmos-1408 satellite.

The Pentagon said that Russia did not warn the American military about the planned tests, and the anti-satellite weapons being developed could pose a threat to the United States and other space powers. The head of NASA Bill Nelson agrees that the cloud of debris was formed as a result of tests of Russian weapons.

Roscosmos stated that the Russian system for warning of dangerous situations in space is monitoring the situation, and called the safety of the ISS crew a top priority in the creation and operation of space technology.

The Russian Defense Ministry called the accusations of the West hypocritical, and clarified that the United States should be "known for certain" that the fragments of the Tselina-D satellite, in terms of test time and orbit parameters, did not and will not pose a threat to orbital stations and spacecraft. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the successful testing of the anti-satellite system by Russia. According to him, “it struck the old satellite with jewelry,” and its debris does not threaten space activities.

 
Chinas test was 355km. The Indian test was 270km. The US test was 250km.

I’m unaware of the altitude of this test, but ISS is at roughly 420km and this was stated to be above that. Kosmos 1408 is stated as having been in an orbit of 480 kilometers in a quick google search, though I can’t find apogee/perigee info. However the original orbit was fairly circular.

So one of these things is clearly not like the others, even compared to the PRC test.
Didn't China previously hit something at 800+km altitude?

 
Chinas test was 355km. The Indian test was 270km. The US test was 250km.

I’m unaware of the altitude of this test, but ISS is at roughly 420km and this was stated to be above that. Kosmos 1408 is stated as having been in an orbit of 480 kilometers in a quick google search, though I can’t find apogee/perigee info. However the original orbit was fairly circular.

So one of these things is clearly not like the others, even compared to the PRC test.
For comparison the ASM-135, launched by an F-15, hit it's target at 555km altitude. I wouldn't take any of these as maximums or minimums. That's just where the targets happened to be.
 


Tested in space on October 15, the rocket has been developed since 2011 and has a dual purpose, Izvestia found out. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the wreckage from the destroyed satellite will not pose a threat to the International Space Station (ISS). Tests of the new weapon caused a wave of criticism from the United States and accusations of endangering the space programs of other states. On Wednesday, November 17, negotiations between NASA and Russian officials on this topic will be held in Moscow. Experts note that four countries in the world are now capable of defeating spacecraft and their wreckage is not always safe.

Cosmic success

The development of the system tested on November 15 has been conducted since 2011. It itself is designed to destroy both ballistic missiles and spacecraft and will have a mobile version, sources in the defense ministry told Izvestia.
On November 16, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed to reporters that a promising system had been successfully tested. According to him, it "jewelry" struck an old satellite and does not pose any threat to space activities.
In its statement on the afternoon of November 16, the Ministry of Defense clarified that during the tests, the long-deactive Celina-D spacecraft was destroyed. The military satellite was launched in 1982 to conduct electronic reconnaissance to an altitude of about 500 km. The Agency demonstrated the results of calculations confirming the absence of risks to the ISS.

U.S. Space Command and NASA have previously said a land-based missile was used. According to American data, a cloud of about 1.5 thousand large debris that can threaten the ISS was formed. On the day of the tests, its crew took refuge in the Soyuz and Crew Dragon-3 spacecraft for several hours as a precaution.
Take off, weapons: what kind of rocket Russia tested in space

Photo: Global Look Press/NASA/Keystone Press Agency

"Balancing on the brink of an arms race in space"
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on the return of ambassadors, Russia's proposals for strategic stability and the return of Russians imprisoned in the United States

The Russian Defense Ministry in response accused the United States of militarizing space. The agency recalled that in 2020, the United States established a new Space Command and adopted a space strategy, where one of the main goals is to create a comprehensive military advantage in space. According to the Russian military, the Pentagon is actively developing and testing the latest shock and combat weapons in orbit. Among them is the reusable unmanned spacecraft X-37.
In addition to space technologies for military purposes, the United States is developing its own missile defense system, while they are trying to shift responsibility for the militarization of space to other countries, military expert Dmitry Kozyulin told Izvestia.
"The United States itself conducted tests to destroy satellites in space, however, it was quite a long time ago," he said. - America, within the framework of the TNAAD program, has developed a mobile ground-based complex for high-altitude atmospheric interception of targets - with an eye to the destruction of ballistic missiles and satellites. Such anti-missiles were tested by China and even India, which is not among the leading space powers.

Sleep on a flying night: the iss was the greatest radiation on the sleeping places of the ISS
This can affect the cognitive abilities of astronauts, experts say

Russia appealed to the United States and other states with a proposal to sign a treaty on the prevention of the placement of weapons in space, but this proposal was never accepted abroad, the expert added.

Garbage threat

On Wednesday, November 17, NASA representatives will meet in Moscow with Roscosmos officials to discuss the consequences of the tests for the ISS and other programs.
Just a few days ago, the ISS already had to evade the consequences of the test of anti-satellite missiles. On November 10, its orbit was raised by 1.2 km in order not to collide with the wreckage of the Chinese satellite Fengyun-1C, destroyed by China in 2007.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the fragments formed from the destruction of the "Celina-D" did not represent and will not pose a threat to orbital stations, spacecraft and space activities.
Take off, weapons: what kind of rocket Russia tested in space

Photo: IZVESTIA/Alexey Maishev

Multipolar Star: Russia intends to maintain the status of a space power
The authorities are ready to develop international programs and raise salaries in the industry

Prior to this, the US Air Force Space Command several times announced russia's ongoing tests of such weapons. According to the Pentagon, the previous, third test was held on December 16, 2020. A direct-intercept anti-satellite missile was launched, which is designed to destroy small objects in low Earth orbit.
The head of the Space Policy Institute, Ivan Moiseev, told Izvestia that for the leading space powers, the destruction of satellites is neither theoretical nor practical difficult.
"There is no point in simply checking such a possibility," the expert explained. - Another thing is the testing of new systems that have not been adopted.
The specialist warned about the danger of the debris formed after the tests. According to him, from the "Celina-D" in addition to one and a half thousand large there are still tens or hundreds of thousands of small, with a diameter of less than 10 cm,which can not be tracked. Their cloud will revolve around the planet for years, gradually spreading, and can be dangerous for spacecraft flying through it.

Clean up there: what to do with space debris
Hundreds of fragments of spacecraft threaten big problems

What shot down the satellites

All previous tests of anti-satellite missiles also used as targets spacecraft orbiting in low Earth orbits, typical of remote Earth observation satellites. Global navigation systems and communication satellites operate at much higher altitudes.
The era of testing modern anti-satellite missiles was opened by China in 2007. On January 11, he shot down his old weather satellite at an altitude of 865 km. According to US estimates, the result was more than 2.3 thousand traceable wreckage. From one of them and had to evade the ISS on November 10.
A year later, in 2008, the United States responded with its tests.
With the SM-3 ship-based anti-missile, they struck their own spy satellite USA-193, which failed. The interception at an altitude of 247 km and gave rise to approximately 400 fragments, most of which then burned up in the atmosphere.
Ship-based anti-missile SM-3

Ship-based anti-missile SM-3
Photo: U.S. Navy
In 2019, India became a new member of the club of countries with anti-satellite capabilities. On March 27, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the successful defeat of a spacecraft by a ballistic missile in orbit about 300 km high.
123

During the Cold War, the USSR and the United States actively experimented with other variants of anti-satellite weapons. Air-launched anti-missiles, lasers, space-space rockets and special fighter spacecraft were developed and tested.
 
Chinas test was 355km. The Indian test was 270km. The US test was 250km.

I’m unaware of the altitude of this test, but ISS is at roughly 420km and this was stated to be above that. Kosmos 1408 is stated as having been in an orbit of 480 kilometers in a quick google search, though I can’t find apogee/perigee info. However the original orbit was fairly circular.

So one of these things is clearly not like the others, even compared to the PRC test.
Didn't China previously hit something at 800+km altitude?

I stand corrected; the figure I had see said 350km. The 700-800 does sound more familiar to me.
 
Chinas test was 355km. The Indian test was 270km. The US test was 250km.

I’m unaware of the altitude of this test, but ISS is at roughly 420km and this was stated to be above that. Kosmos 1408 is stated as having been in an orbit of 480 kilometers in a quick google search, though I can’t find apogee/perigee info. However the original orbit was fairly circular.

So one of these things is clearly not like the others, even compared to the PRC test.
For comparison the ASM-135, launched by an F-15, hit it's target at 555km altitude. I wouldn't take any of these as maximums or minimums. That's just where the targets happened to be.
The main consideration to my mind is the altitude of the fragment pattern, not the original orbit or the capability of the system being used. Though the orbit of the original satellite would tend to describe the fragment pattern. Most LEO satellites don't have drastically different apogees and perigees though. Kosmos 1408's original orbit was largely circular, though originally much higher (650km ish I think).

The US old US ASM-135 test was higher than I expected; I was referring to the much more recent SM-3 test. But there were a lot less satellites in orbit during the 1980s. I believe the Soviets carried out several ASAT tests with their system as well.
 
Chinas test was 355km. The Indian test was 270km. The US test was 250km.

I’m unaware of the altitude of this test, but ISS is at roughly 420km and this was stated to be above that. Kosmos 1408 is stated as having been in an orbit of 480 kilometers in a quick google search, though I can’t find apogee/perigee info. However the original orbit was fairly circular.

So one of these things is clearly not like the others, even compared to the PRC test.
For comparison the ASM-135, launched by an F-15, hit it's target at 555km altitude. I wouldn't take any of these as maximums or minimums. That's just where the targets happened to be.
The main consideration to my mind is the altitude of the fragment pattern, not the original orbit or the capability of the system being used. Though the orbit of the original satellite would tend to describe the fragment pattern. Most LEO satellites don't have drastically different apogees and perigees though. Kosmos 1408's original orbit was largely circular, though originally much higher (650km ish I think).

The US old US ASM-135 test was higher than I expected; I was referring to the much more recent SM-3 test. But there were a lot less satellites in orbit during the 1980s. I believe the Soviets carried out several ASAT tests with their system as well.
The SM-3 test was specifically tailored so the fragments would reenter relatively quickly, which they did. (It didn't hurt that the whole mess was headed that way eventually anyway.)
 
fighting against kessler syndrome is needed more than ever. The Kessler effect will get so bad that it becomes a dyson sphere and they send bob neumann probes to check that shit out, solving fermi’s paradox
 
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