It is a huge industrial bill, like I said before its pumping in billions of investment into an industry created around just 8 submarines (maybe some opportunity for refitting RN/US subs later?).
Do the cost/reward/effectiveness ratios stack up? I don't know but let's look at it this way, all the other nuclear-submarine producing nations (USA, Russia, UK, France, India) have used this technology to create an SSBN force - the ultimate potential arbiter of national power and defence, the final sting in the tail of the nation's defensive willpower. This kind of ultimate defence, that although untested and possibly illusionary, is almost priceless and no price limit has ever been set on acquiring or maintaining that capability and thus automatically justifies whatever nuclear submarine, nuclear warhead and missile technology R&D thrown at it.
Australia has no 'do-or-die' SSBN shield to automatically handwave those billions as the ultimate national defence need. All it may have is eight attack subs. What comes after that to sustain such an industry during the 20-30 year life of the SSN(R)? At least France and the UK can alternate SSN and SSBN classes to keep work ongoing, Australia can't keep building 8 subs every decade - though it may now be committing itself in the long-term to just such an outcome, a constant low-rate production line, the RAN will always have to operate SSNs once the local industry is built up, there would be no other political choice.
But ultimately the current Australian political system figures that the price is worth it. And anyway, with short-term Parliamentary cycles who within the system cares about events that might succeed them?
Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?
Australia get's some number of workers to move to the US to train in US shipyard building nuclear submarines. = Win
- The mechanics of this will be interesting. Employment contracts? HII workers average pay is $115k AUD vs $67k AUD in Australia
Australia invests $8 billion AUD in Perth -
- How do you spend $8 billion in Perth? The Sydney Morning Herald reports "The work would include upgraded wharves, expanded maintenance training, and logistical capacity at HMAS Stirling."
- Wharf upgrades and expansion of maintenance training, and expanded logistical capacity at HMAS Stirling;
- More frequent and longer visits of American submarines from this year, and UK subs from 2026;
- HMAS Stirling will host rotations of US and UK submarines from 2027 as part of Submarine Rotational Force West, known as SRF-West;
- WA will be home to Australian nuclear-propelled submarines from the early 2030s, the US Virginia class.
Evidently, $4.3 billion of that will be a new large vessel dry dock at the Australian Marine Complex. Will that dry dock be large enough for Virginia-class submarines? I don't know, but I'd make it at least large enough for Columbia-class submarines. You never know what maintenance work will come along. Heck, if they're building one, they may as well build two for twice the price. They'll be happy they did 15 years from now. The AMC is currently home to some 150 business and is likely to grow.
Another ~$1 billion AUD will be spent at Garden Island's HMAS Sterling. Right across the bay from the AMC.
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on extensions to the existing wharves, construction of new office buildings, training facilities and living accommodation. This will support the new vessels and personnel at Fleet Base West, and will create business opportunities serving the new Defense families located on the mainland (which has the potential to create thousands of jobs in the City of Rockingham). At present 12 fleet units including Anzac Class frigates and Collins Class submarines are stationed here, along with an additional 70 units including the Submarine Training and Systems Centre, Submarine Escape Training Facility (one of only six in the world), Clearance Diving Team Four, and the Defence Communications Station Perth.
Under the planned Navy Capability Infrastructure Sub-Program, Fleet Base West will become homeport to additional Hunter Class frigates (SEA5000 project), Arafura Class offshore patrol vessels (SEA1180 project) and Attack Class submarines (SEA1000 project) as they come into service, and as a result will be the location of significant expansion, sustainment and maintenance opportunities in the coming years.
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So net new ships and personnel stationed in the Perth area.
Evidently defense contributes ~$1.5b AUD (about 20% of output) to the local economy. By extension, the addition of frigates, patrol vessels and attack submarines will increase that output substantially.
What about the add-on investment in support of all this growth?
Well, it looks like in a separate project, $4b AUD is being spent to move a container port to Kwinana, across the bay from the AMC. The new container port is being built because freight is expected to double by 2030.
Of course, that means the old container port will eventually be shut down. Nice development property on the Perth waterfront.
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These seems like just the start for the Perth area, not taking into account the 4 Virginia-class boats and the British boat that will be rotating in and out in a few years. And it's 7 - 10 years before a submarine is purchased.
michaelwest.com.au
