Leave that to the F-35s and other platforms. Use the F-47 and B-21 accompanied by CCAs to open the door and then the flood of other platforms come in afterwards. Doctrinally the USAF probably doesn't expect to maintain Air Supremacy over a 2035 China but would seek Air Superiority, so temporary control of the air for a given space and time.
The USAF is also not presently pushing for ground-attack CCAs to carry those 2000lb class weapons. Which means they're going to need a manned airframe to carry them.

Do you think that the F-35 will still be competitive after 2040?



Without seeing an actual graphic of the proposed aircraft I'm not sure we can say that yet can we? Also why introduce that additionally complexity if you don't have to?
Because it gives you a small bay with fast-opening doors, minimal RCS bloom while the bay is exposed. Potentially even using an off-side bay to shoot if your RWR is directional.
 
Need more info on the F-47 planform and payload volumes as well as more info on JATM (seeker systems, fuzing, blast customization, thrust profiles) to say more. I’m just a believer in a 10% hit in aero/drag for a 33% bump in JATMs - especially because of adaptive three stream powerplants. But I will also readily say few other topics are as humbling as predicting the specifics of cutting edge aerospace defense programs like F-47.
 
The USAF is also not presently pushing for ground-attack CCAs to carry those 2000lb class weapons. Which means they're going to need a manned airframe to carry them.
B-21 also opens up manned 2000lb possibilities. Not sure on whether CCAs will ever get to 2000lb class, at least internally.
Do you think that the F-35 will still be competitive after 2040?
Yes for specific roles and likely accompanied by CCAs that would be flying SEAD and A2A missions or supplementing A2G ordnance.
Because it gives you a small bay with fast-opening doors, minimal RCS bloom while the bay is exposed. Potentially even using an off-side bay to shoot if your RWR is directional.
I'd rather see the planform first before I made that call. From appearances it looks like both Chinese 6th gen do not have side bays and suspect the F-47 will carry some of that same design thinking as well given they are all trying for a similar end state.
But I will also readily say few other topics are as humbling as predicting the specifics of cutting edge aerospace defense programs like F-47.
100%. It will either look exactly like a lot of us think it should or will be different enough, ala J-36, to fill the threads with speculation for years to come.
 
B-21 also opens up manned 2000lb possibilities.
Yes, it does, and I suppose I should have mentioned that as one of the options for getting 2000lb weapons there.

I just don't think that the USAF will end up replacing Strike Eagles with B-21s. No matter how much I want 300x B-21s in strategic roles plus another 200x replacing Strike Eagles, that's just too much money.

B-21s are what, at least twice the price of an F-47?

That's why I think the USAF will end up buying something else to replace Strike Eagles. If NGAD has 2000lb bays it'll be NGAD, if not it might be a modified FAXX (at the very least with a boom receptacle replacing the IFR probe).


Not sure on whether CCAs will ever get to 2000lb class, at least internally.
If your CCAs are packing SiAW/AARGM-ERs for SEAD/DEAD then by volume they'd hold a 2000lb.


I'd rather see the planform first before I made that call. From appearances it looks like both Chinese 6th gen do not have side bays and suspect the F-47 will carry some of that same design thinking as well given they are all trying for a similar end state.
I thought the J-50 appeared to have side bays?

And doesn't the J-36 appear to have a main bay and a pair of smaller bays next to it on the belly?


100%. It will either look exactly like a lot of us think it should or will be different enough, ala J-36, to fill the threads with speculation for years to come.
I mean, somewhere they described the Boeing design as being roughly F-22 sized which already blew a lot of minds (mine included).

To me, that said 84klb MTOW, which is about 20k less than I was expecting. I was expecting an F-111 sized beast!
 
I mean, somewhere they described the Boeing design as being roughly F-22 sized which already blew a lot of minds (mine included).
Theres a lot of focus on size not just in this thread and on the F-47 but also just generally floating around in all the other threads.

I think theres obviously value in having a large capacity. It translates to individually more capable aircraft. But I think between individual capacity and air frame numbers, having one is enough. Having 10 missiles on an aircraft is great but all 10 of those missiles are at exactly one place. Having 5 missiles per plane leaves you greater flexibility, coverage and engagement directions - that is assuming you buy more airframes of smaller capacity than air frame with large capacity.
 
Yes, it does, and I suppose I should have mentioned that as one of the options for getting 2000lb weapons there.

I just don't think that the USAF will end up replacing Strike Eagles with B-21s. No matter how much I want 300x B-21s in strategic roles plus another 200x replacing Strike Eagles, that's just too much money.

B-21s are what, at least twice the price of an F-47?

That's why I think the USAF will end up buying something else to replace Strike Eagles. If NGAD has 2000lb bays it'll be NGAD, if not it might be a modified FAXX (at the very least with a boom receptacle replacing the IFR probe).
Indeed and wasn't nitpicking B-21, just that it remained an option. It could well be argued that NGAD will remain too expensive and likely speaks to the F-035 follow on which might be better suited, including production volume, to fill that role.
If your CCAs are packing SiAW/AARGM-ERs for SEAD/DEAD then by volume they'd hold a 2000lb.
Plenty of ways to skin the SEAD cat, especially when looking at emerging low cost weapons that will be designed for hosting on CCAs.
I thought the J-50 appeared to have side bays?

And doesn't the J-36 appear to have a main bay and a pair of smaller bays next to it on the belly?
I am arguing against side bays in the context of side of the intake. A separate weapons bay on the bottom of the aircraft that is on either side of the main bay is IMO different placement and complexity.

Without polluting the thread with graphics present elsewhere I believe both have weapons bays only on the bottom of the respective aircraft fuselages. There is some suggestion of side bays on the J-50 but I'm not convinced that is the purpose.
I mean, somewhere they described the Boeing design as being roughly F-22 sized which already blew a lot of minds (mine included).

To me, that said 84klb MTOW, which is about 20k less than I was expecting. I was expecting an F-111 sized beast!
I think a lot of us were expecting that larger size.
 
Plenty of ways to skin the SEAD cat, especially when looking at emerging low cost weapons that will be designed for hosting on CCAs.
Agreed, I have a real fondness for the AGM-122 Sidearm for a small and light ARM to throw at sudden surprises.


I am arguing against side bays in the context of side of the intake. A separate weapons bay on the bottom of the aircraft that is on either side of the main bay is IMO different placement and complexity.
Okay, I see the argument.

A side-of-the-intake AAM bay does give you protection from radars that a bottom AAM bay does not.
 
A side-of-the-intake AAM bay does give you protection from radars that a bottom AAM bay does not.
Including the choice of which side to open, potentially allowing you to optimise exposure during weapon launch vs the local radar environment.
 
An apology if this has been posted elsewhere. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2025/july/drop-f-fa-xx

Encouraging to see a bright young Lieutenant (from Yale, yikes) take a fresh look at the primary need for the next carrier-based combat aircraft. Maybe this kind of thinking is shared by those who put $500M in the Navy budget for a long range strike aircraft?

Lt Hano's basic argument makes a lot sense to me on several levels. On a related note I have picked up that the F/A-XX requirements set, the product of 5 years and dozens of Pentagon reviews and iterations, has (had?) more air-to-air emphasis than many may be assuming.

Drop the ‘F’ in F/A-XX​

a selected passage ...
A-XX should be a low-observable, long-range attack aircraft able to carry a large and varied payload, from antiship cruise missiles to bombs and mines, to contribute across the range of conflict. Dropping the “F” in F/A-XX would allow the program to focus on range, payload, and new technology integration, while still enabling it to serve as a “quarterback” for unmanned aircraft.
 
On a related note I have picked up that the F/A-XX requirements set, the product of 5 years and dozens of Pentagon reviews and iterations, has (had?) more air-to-air emphasis than many may be assuming.
The US Navy F/A-XX and USAF NGAD requirements were always very similar. The carrier landing requirement was the main differentiator. Air-to ground weapons are easy to add to either design. The F/A-XX demonstrator can easily satisfy the NGAD requirement.

a selected passage ...
A-XX should be a low-observable, long-range attack aircraft able to carry a large and varied payload, from antiship cruise missiles to bombs and mines, to contribute across the range of conflict.
Wow. Another person describing the MQ-25 platform.
 
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The US Navy F/A-XX and USAF NGAD requirements were always very similar. The carrier landing requirement was the main differentiator. Air-to ground weapons are easy to add to either design. The F/A-XX demonstrator can easily satisfy the NGAD requirement.

Nope.
 
@insidersource you mean MQ-25 no?
Yes. Boeing has also designed in space for an internal weapon bay. Currently the entire fuselage volume is filled with fuel due to it being a tanker version.

Obvious clues for this are:
1) Landing gear placement.
2) Flat section on the underside.
3) Intake placement.
3) The refueling pod is wing mounted instead of the centreline.

The MQ-25 has planform alignment and the engine fan is hidden by the intake which all VLO aircraft must have. If Boeing wants the most growth potential these features need to be added from the start despite the MQ-25 tanker mission not requiring high levels of stealth.

Once the weapon bay is added and stealth coatings the MQ-25 design would easily match any X-47 based design. The long straight wing will always provide greater range, endurance and payload at any given flying weight or aircraft weight.

The MQ-20 Avenger drone has an internal weapons bay and is a very similar layout and is approximately half the weight of the MQ-25. Half a dozen small diameter bombs or a pair of JDAMs should fit easily inside the MQ-25.
 
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No I get it believe me I just wanted to make sure it was a clerical and not a conceptual error, when you originally wrote 28 ;D
 
Yes. Boeing has also designed in space for an internal weapon bay. Currently the entire fuselage volume is filled with fuel due to it being a tanker version.

The aircraft was originally designed to be a LO strike aircraft.

The budget items that are the subject of this thread have nothing to do with MQ-25.
 
The aircraft was originally designed to be a LO strike aircraft.

The budget items that are the subject of this thread have nothing to do with MQ-25.
Exactly. I was shocked when I read the first 50 posts and not one person here had mentioned the MQ-25. The same "Long range strike" words are in the budget for both the USAF and USN.

In 2050 I think the carrier air wing will have approximately 30 F/A-XX and 30 MQ-25.

The MQ-25 fleet will be split into the following:
5 refueling tanker MQ-25
5 electronic jammer MQ-25
5 AWAC/MPA MQ-25
15 stealthy strike MQ-25 with weapon bay.

The only way for the carrier to remain relevant is to be able to have a strike distance well beyond 1,000 nm. The F/A-XX will have the longest range of any supersonic fighter to operate from the carrier. Yet people are still saying that F/A-XX doesn't have enough range when they heard the official "25% greater range" comment. The only way to get more range while remaining within carrier size limit is to sacrifice speed and/or agility. Physics is physics.

The experts always say 6th gen fighters will have drones sitting up front with sensors and they will data link back to the manned fighters. A drone that can carry a large enough radar and be able to fly a 1,000nm combat radius from a carrier points to a MQ-25 sized platform. L band radar has much greater detection range compared to X band when it comes to stealth aircraft. L band radar is physically big.
 
The aircraft was originally designed to be a LO strike aircraft.

The budget items that are the subject of this thread have nothing to do with MQ-25.
Then what would you suppose they are?
 
Then what would you suppose they are?

Exactly what they say they are. Look carefully at the wording. Even someone who has not spent 30 years analyzing DoD budgets should notice this.

And that is all I will say about this subject, this thread has gone beyond speculation informed or not into “making stuff up” territory, which is not why I’m here.
 
The US Navy F/A-XX and USAF NGAD requirements were always very similar. The carrier landing requirement was the main differentiator. Air-to ground weapons are easy to add to either design. The F/A-XX demonstrator can easily satisfy the NGAD requirement.

Wow. Another person describing the MQ-25 platform.
I've been told that Boeing has pretty much given up trying to entice the Navy with various MQ-25 derivative notions. Also relevant, the Navy did not ask for an LO-shaped vehicle for CBARS -- not in the Capability Development Document, not in the Proposal Selection criteria, and not in the EMD contract specs. While Boeing may have had a broader, grander vision of what an MQ-25 could be, the Navy, near-sighted or not, has shown no interest in straying from the CBARS' original purpose, even in this age of CCA...
 
https://www.flightglobal.com/ew-f-18-under-development/15147.article from Aug 15, 1995
https://aviationweek.com/1000-plane-super-hornet-buy-includes-120-c2w-aircraft from Apr 3, 1997

Showing Naval Aviation the way forward is nothing new for the business development execs in St Louis. The original set of Super Hornet (aka Hornet 2000) requirements in the Operational Requirements Document (ORD, predecessor of the CDD) included some high-level language about an electronic warfare / C2W variant. This idea was not generated from bottom-up or top-down campaign or mission analyses, or 'airwing of the future' studies, by the Pentagon.

In the immediate aftermath of the A-12 cancellation, it's fairly well known that St Louis provided the fighter/attack 'solution' (via an ECP to the F/A-18C/D, hahaha) to the Navy for replacing the Grumman F-14 and Grumman A-6. What is less known is that St Louis provided the Navy the roadmap for replacing the Grumman EA-6B, with a Hornet 2000 C2W variant.

Boeing-St Louis has tried hard for many years to repeat their Super Hornet / Growler success story (from a business perspective) by using CBARS to get their foot in the door for several MQ-25 mission derivatives. So far to no avail ...
 
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"And exporting the A-XX to France is not outside the realm of possibility"

Who wants to break the bad news?

Wait 2-3 years, Dassault is working overtime to drive FCAS into the ground. So they could definitely end up on the market for such an aircraft.
 
I have exactly 0 years of reading DoD contracts but these are some thin haiku:

18) $600,000,000 for the development, procurement, andintegration of Air Force long-range strike aircraft; and (19) $500,000,000 for the development, procurement, and integration of Navy long-range strike aircraft.

Am I crazy to think this is

Scenario 1
F-35A/C funding for a) engine centric improvements that dramatically improve range like EPE or even dare I dream, adaptive engines? and/or b) a formal external tank program (I could see certain people being motivated by recent F-35i results)

Scenario 2
A clean sheet LRS that share current commonality before a future NGAD divergence or two separate long range strike platforms

Scenario 3
Moving MQ-25 toward a long range weapon carrier role. Quellish thinks this is ridiculous, so I think we can put it aside for now.

What are Scenarios 4, 5, 6 etc….?
 
Scenario 3
Moving MQ-25 toward a long range weapon carrier role. Quellish thinks this is ridiculous, so I think we can put it aside for now.
I too think the idea of both services sole sourcing to the MQ-25 is ridiculous. The idea that 100% of the $500 and $600 million allocated goes entirely to the MQ-25 is ridiculous. Like nearly every major contract there will be a competition and the major primes will all make their submissions. The allocated budget would then be for the competition and the funding will go towards multiple proposals.

I am just calling it early that Boeing will submit a variant of the MQ-25. Boeing will win because MQ-25 is in the door already and it will have commonality with greater economy or scale. Boeing also has the greatest lobbying power in my opinion. This is based off discussions at a conference in September.
 
Thanks but my writing was unclear - my reference toward @quellish was about his knowledge of facts and what’s knowable, not opinions about such and such a use of a given airframe.
 
And now, a new semi-classified project has come to light, albeit dimly: a “long-range strike aircraft” for the U.S. Navy. That terse description appeared for the first time without elaboration in the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, along with a $300 million line item for development, procurement and integration. It was likely not the first or only allocation for the program. More likely, the Senate version unmasked a line item in a previously classified account.
......
Our search of the public record reveals no further evidence of the Navy’s formerly secret long-range strike aircraft program. It remains unclear whether the aircraft is crewed or uncrewed, and when it may appear on the decks of future aircraft carriers.
The concept, however, reminds this columnist of a 2018 report by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis (CSBA). The Washington-based think tank’s 170-p. monograph, entitled “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition,” recommended that the Navy should invest in such an aircraft.
......
Indeed, the report placed such a “long-range multi-mission survivable unmanned combat air vehicle” (UCAV) as the dominant platform of the future carrier air wing, with its 18 strike aircraft and six electronic attack variants outnumbering a recommended mix of two squadrons of F/A-XX and F-35Cs with 10 fighters each.
......
If the CSBA analysis is correct, the projected UCAV would be large for an aircraft carrier deck, but presumably still light enough to be launched with the 80,000-lb. weight limit for a Ford-class carrier. The report describes the UCAV with a notional range of 3,000 nm (3,450 mi.), with internal bays large enough to carry the strike missiles available to tactical fighters and perhaps other new technologies, such as directed-energy weapon systems.

https://aviationweek.com/defense/ai...-navy-strike-aircraft-project-possibly-breaks
 
I assume this text is from the AvWeek article? Where is that $300M number coming from? The OBBB says the following:

(18) $600,000,000 for the development, procurement, and integration of Air Force long-range strike aircraft; and
(19) $500,000,000 for the development, procurement, and integration of Navy long-range strike aircraft.
 
It's just vague, amorphous Congressional language like the OBBB's "medium-range ballistic missile" that everyone leapt on a new start when it was clear (from the spending guidance) that it was PrSM.

This is probably nothing more than Bomber modernization and better arming the P-8/MQ-25.
 
It's just vague, amorphous Congressional language like the OBBB's "medium-range ballistic missile" that everyone leapt on a new start when it was clear (from the spending guidance) that it was PrSM.

This is probably nothing more than Bomber modernization and better arming the P-8/MQ-25.

Close. It is funding for existing programs, nothing “black”.
 
This is probably nothing more than Bomber modernization and better arming the P-8/MQ-25.
I can't see a whole lot more that I'd want to hang on the P-8 beyond AGM-65 triples on the wings and maybe some Sidewinders for grins.

It's cleared for LRASMs, so the other AGM-158s should also be an option already (it was cleared for SLAM-ER, so it should be cleared for the replacement).

Since they're saying it's cleared for naval mines, that means Mk80 Quickstrike types. So JDAMs should also be an option for either JDAM-ER Quickstrike or JDAM-ER Quicksinks.
 

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