FFG(X)

[Deleted member 29851]

graph? They were at too expensive for what they offered.

Constellation may be expensive, but the cost:capability ratio is even worse for lower end ships. Type 31 is the only option that makes sense.

 

[Desertfox]

I'm going to start with Convoy Escort, which means able to deal with Oscar-class AShM volleys. 24x P700 missiles. Or these days, Yasen-class, which means 32x P800 or 3M54 Klub missiles. Per single submarine. (once the average merchant ship does 20 knots, that greatly reduces the need to convoy up)

It also means going someplace the natives are restless to show that you are paying attention, say like the Red Sea when the Houthis are having a hissy-fit. Which would mean having enough magazine depth to handle several incoming weapons per day for a week or two.



Would you agree that you should be able to send a Patrol Frigate to the Red Sea as an escort to keep the Houthis honest?

That means you need fairly long ranged missiles to be able to guard ships that are between you and the shooter, or at awkward geometries to intercept in general.

It also means enough missile cells to be there for a week or two before you need to leave and reload.

Needing to be able to deal with Yasen-class volleys that are not necessarily targeted at the Patrol Frigate needs 12-16x ESSM (3-4 cells worth of quad-packs) and 28x+ SM2(equivalent). 32 missile cells minimum, and 40 or 48 would be better so you could also have ASROCs. Note that there's not a single Tomahawk on this ship right now, and no SM3, SM6, or GPI Glide Breakers for AShBMs or hypersonics, either.

Now we really are up to our minimum need being 48x Mk41 cells to give you 16x ESSM, 28x SM2, 6x ASROC, and 10x SM3/SM6/GPI.

That's an AAW destroyer, might as well build more Burkes in that scenario.

The idea of a frigate is it can do lower risk scenarios the Brakes are currently doing so the Burkes are freed up for those specific high risk scenarios.

 

[kqcke for you]

It would be really interresting how close the spanish F-110's would be to NAVSEA standard

 

[VishnuOsiris]

Indeed...the Navy Institute's 'Proceedings' issues from the early to mid-90's were full of articles on 'From the Sea'....'Littoral Warfare' etc etc. They're really worth looking at for a view on what was planned at the time and why, they're a great read in hindsight, painful if you're a US taxpayer or navalist though....from there the Streetfighter (that led to LCS), EFV, NLOS-M, Virginia Class all flowed...with the addition of the already existing V-22, LPD-17, DDG-1000 & AGM.

I believe Vice Admiral Metcalf III kicks off the "From the Sea" trend with Revolution at Sea (1988), although at this point the focus was on the opportunities presented by VLS and Tomahawk.

 

[joshjosh]

They need to realize every time they fail to procure a vital weapon platform, they inching us closer to war. There's nothing that encourages your enemy more than to show that you're incompetent.

If you're talking about China, then it probably doesn't matter very much.

America’s National Security Wonderland - American Affairs Journal

While America is battling exhaustion and political polarization at home, it is now facing something it’s never faced abroad: it is locked into a security competition against multiple opponents who, when taken together, are in fact vastly superior to America in terms of industrial capacity. This...

americanaffairsjournal.org

 

[apparition13]

Among other things, like simple institutional incompetence on the side of the Navy.

On the NAVSEA and foreign vessels debate though, you can tell me many things I'll be willing to believe, but you can't tell me that US ships are inherently safer as comparable vessels from Japan, South Korea or the top European ship builders. Especially knowing the overall state of American heavy industry, safety standards and protocols compared to Europe and many parts of East Asia.

The Japanese "Burkes" have unit propulsion, the Korean one (Sejong) doesn't. I'd have no problem taking a Japanese ship as is. They learned a lot from the Pacific war as well.

 

[Felocie]

While Dilandu insists that Oscars and Yasens would be assigned to hunt carriers, the possibility exists that they could be targeted on a convoy, if different political decisions get made.

That’s a ridiculous decision, if they choose to do that then they’ve already lost. Dilandu is absolutely correct.

I'm assuming that the highest level of attack the Houthis produced should require a DDG, but you're likely to not have a DDG present when the Houthis roll out another large attack again.

Any sustained combat response would require a DDG, even Connie would not deploy to such a scenario alone

VLA is required because it's an ASW combatant

A low end cheap PF could simply use it’s helicopter

SM6 is needed to defend against lower end AShBMs and hypersonics, and is also needed for the occasional shot that the ship is just in the wrong spot to be able to respond to with anything less. It is required, not a nice-to-have.

in scenarios such as this it would be under the Burke air defence umbrella anyway

 

[Felocie]

It would be really interresting how close the spanish F-110's would be to NAVSEA standard

The Bath FFG(X) design was based on F100. It met American milspec standards but did not have IEP

 

[joshjosh]

Today, the categories are based on what kind of air defense system the ship has. LCS has the minimum self defense suite. European frigates tend to be more capable in self defense and can defend ships close to them. Aegis destroyers can defend a task force. Where did the Constellation sit on the graph? They were at too expensive for what they offered. The best place to put the ship on the graph is at the end of a high slope regions, not in the beginning or middle. The ship is either a patrol vessel that can do ASW in a lower air threat environment, an ASW vessel that can survive a higher air threat but not protect a task force, or it can protect a task force from the top level air threat. There is no reason to build anything else. ASW that has a watered down high end AAW suite is a waste of money.

The Navy had a coherent vision of what the Constellation class would do:

• Be capable of independent operations, including in moderately contested environments
• Be multi-mission
• Act as an additional sensor/shooter in a SAG or CSG
• Perform ASW
• Be cheaper than a LSC and thus available in larger numbers

It was shaping up to accomplish these things, assuming the design was actually viable and the ship would actually work. If the design had completely intractable issues and would not be combat capable or even seaworthy, then obviously that would be a problem.

The concept of a mini-burke with 1/3 to 1/2 the cells (Flt II could have been from ship 11 onwards and could have had 48 cells) and a capable but cheaper radar strikes me as a perfectly viable concept.

 

[Jimmo952]

The Navy had a coherent vision of what the Constellation class would do:

• Be capable of independent operations, including in moderately contested environments
• Be multi-mission
• Act as an additional sensor/shooter in a SAG or CSG
• Perform ASW
• Be cheaper than a LSC and thus available in larger numbers

It was shaping up to accomplish these things, assuming the design was actually viable and the ship would actually work. If the design had completely intractable issues and would not be combat capable or even seaworthy, then obviously that would be a problem.

The concept of a mini-burke with 1/3 to 1/2 the cells (Flt II could have been from ship 11 onwards and could have had 48 cells) and a capable but cheaper radar strikes me as a perfectly viable concept.

I'm still shocked they couldn't pull it off.

 

[Deleted member 29851]

The concept of a mini-burke with 1/3 to 1/2 the cells (Flt II could have been from ship 11 onwards and could have had 48 cells) and a capable but cheaper radar strikes me as a perfectly viable concept.

Cell count is probably the last thing I’d be worried with FFG-62.
EASR is a capable radar, roughly equivalent to SPY-1D in sensitivity, but only equivalent to SPY-1D in sensitivity. That’s a 30+ year old system that the Navy is trying to move away from.
SEWIP Block II is also a last generation system operating on GaN, not GaA architecture. Given the stability issues and hybrid drive, I have my doubts it could take a full size SEWIP Block III installation, which will be an issue in the coming decades.
It’s also limited with the hybrid drive, making operation of DEWs and larger electronics hard but not impossible.
Also who knows how good the computer backend is relative to a Flight III, which will strain BMD and HGV interception.

 

[Deleted member 29851]

I'm still shocked they couldn't pull it off.

Yes, I’m shocked that a yard that never designed built anything more complex than an LCS with Level I survivability standards couldn’t pull off a near complete redesign of a foreign vessel built to Level II standards with Aegis, and a patent company hopefully unfamiliar with USN standards.

 

[Jimmo952]

Yes, I’m shocked that a yard that never designed built anything more complex than an LCS with Level I survivability standards couldn’t pull off a near complete redesign of a foreign vessel built to Level II standards with Aegis, and a patent company hopefully unfamiliar with USN standards.

Who is doing the design? The yard or NAVSEA?

You can't build what hasn't been designed.

 

[Deleted member 29851]

Who is doing the design? The yard or NAVSEA?

NAVSEA hasn't actually designed a vessel for construction since the Perry program. All contract designs are done by the yards.

 

[Jimmo952]

NAVSEA hasn't actually designed a vessel for construction since the Perry program. All contract designs are done by the yards.

Interesting.

 

[H_K]

NAVSEA hasn't actually designed a vessel for construction since the Perry program. All contract designs are done by the yards.

Nope. Constellation design was subcontracted to Gibbs & Cox, who screwed up it seems.

Fincantieri handed them the FREMM plans so that G&C’s US design team could act as the designated design agent both for the pre-award conceptual design phase and post-award detailed design. This was required by Navy rules as foreign design teams weren’t allowed to work with the Navy (which meant Fincantieri couldn’t use their own Italian design teams). And Marinette is just a yard without a big design team.

G&C was also design agent for LCS-1 and MMSC, so their track record raises some questions IMHO, considering they’re thought by many to be the best design team the US has (given their DDG-51 pedigree).

 

[Scott Kenny]

That's an AAW destroyer, might as well build more Burkes in that scenario.

The idea of a frigate is it can do lower risk scenarios the Brakes are currently doing so the Burkes are freed up for those specific high risk scenarios.

Subs have antiship missiles, antiship missiles are the primary threat from subs to the USN. Any convoy escort (for however much longer the concept of convoys is valid) will have to be able to intercept a decent amount of incoming AShMs, which I am currently defining as Oscar or Yasen SSGN as the peak threat, with a lower level threat on the order of 15x missiles (example, Virginia-class with torpedo-tube-launched AShMs in addition to the VLS). A sub like an Oscar or Yasen (and probably like Laika/Husky) can volley massively more AShMs than it can torpedoes.

And that also covers the Houthis et sim, throwing antiship missiles at passing merchant ships.

Any modern warship just flat requires a competent AAW capability, even if the ship is not intended to be a part of a carrier battle group's AAW defenses.

 

[Archibald]

If you're talking about China, then it probably doesn't matter very much.

America’s National Security Wonderland - American Affairs Journal

While America is battling exhaustion and political polarization at home, it is now facing something it’s never faced abroad: it is locked into a security competition against multiple opponents who, when taken together, are in fact vastly superior to America in terms of industrial capacity. This...

americanaffairsjournal.org

Holly cow. I didn't realized the US military present situation was so dire. It's a sobbering read.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Er, no. My point was, that there wouldn't be many convoys in traditional, WW2-esque style. The absolute majority of world goods are transported by convenient flag ships; most of those goods are heavily intermixed. So attacking cargo ships in sea is rather pointless and politically dangerous (since you would be hitting cargos for neutral nations also). And so not much need for convoys to protect general cargo.

Of course, SOME convoys would still exist - chartered/brought cargo ships, transporting military cargo and/or personnel (albeit I think personnel would likely be airlifted). Such convoys would be a high-value targets, and thus could validate massive attacks.

Any situation in which convoys are happening implies a pretty massive war, one in which I'd pretty much expect all non-military freight to stop moving.

Ignoring the ever increasing speed of merchant ships, any Merchies doing over 20 knots are not something you engage with submarines! IIRC the current container ships are capable of cruising at 20 knots. Break-bulk ships are still slower, ~15 knots ish, but there's not a whole lot of Break-bulk that would be moving during a war. Oil tankers and LNG/LPG tankers are the only real 15 knot convoys you'd see.

Make a graph. The x-axis is cost, the y-axis is capability. [...] The best place to put the ship on the graph is at the end of a high slope regions, not in the beginning or middle. The ship is either a patrol vessel that can do ASW in a lower air threat environment, an ASW vessel that can survive a higher air threat but not protect a task force, or it can protect a task force from the top level air threat. There is no reason to build anything else.

Generally agree with this.

ASW that has a watered down high end AAW suite is a waste of money.

There's other reasons to have a watered down Aegis suite on all ships in the USN, even if it is more expensive.

1) commonality of training. A radar tech can be assigned to any ship.​

2) signals intelligence. A SPY-6 detection could be anything, while SPY-1 is early Burkes or Ticos only.​

3) simplified supply of spare parts. You can borrow a part from any other ship in the fleet to fix your broken stuff.​

Building the hulls to take a hit from modern weapons is a huge cost. Check out the photos of the USS Cole. There's the mild steel that looks like a tin can and then there's the armor steel that needed a new paint job. Armor steel is expensive and is very difficult (expensive) to weld. That is where the cost savings is. Build cheaper category 1 and 2 vessels that do not have names, they just have numbers so they can be risked. Enough battle damage resistance to survive collisions and small arms/light weapons/small drones. Category 3 should be an evolved Burke.

I don't think you understand how superstitious the USN is, nor how casualty-averse the entire US military is.

Ships without names are unnatural things. You're literally talking about using the modern equivalent of PT boats for convoy escorts etc. If it's big enough to mount Standard Missiles, it's a ship and needs a name or it will always be a piece of junk. Crud, I expect the larger USVs to be named as well.

As to casualties, the media will lose their minds over "US Navy Warship sunk" headlines.

 

[Jacky]

The cancellation of constellation frigates is only the result of institutionalized collapse. The cancellation of constellation frigates is only the result of system collapse. This institutional collapse began when McNamara initiated the reform of the naval procurement process. In order to optimize the cost, he closed the construction capacity of the naval shipyard and gave the design right of warships to private contractors.. I don't even know what the last class of warship designed by the Navy is now, maybe Nimitz class (SCB 250 design)?
The ship renewal system composed of SCB-BuShips-Fleet was broken. It makes it difficult for the navy to regain its ship design ability now. Private shipyards in the US have lost the competitiveness of civil ship construction and the production capacity is seriously insufficient. The only feasible way is that the navy's own shipyard is responsible for building warships.

But I believe no American politician could do that unless President Franklin Roosevelt were resurrected and the "Two Oceans Naval Act" was reinstated.

 

[joshjosh]

Holly cow. I didn't realized the US military present situation was so dire. It's a sobbering read.

All of this is publicly available information, and every piece of analysis clearly shows that China has the upper hand vs the US. Bigger industry. Younger fighters. More ships. More shipbuilding capacity. Newer better AAMs. First to 6th gen. Much bigger population. Several times more STEM grads each year. More scientific papers written. Leader in many emerging technologies. Almost caught up to TSMC in chip foundries.

Any US advantage you can point to is quickly being eroded. Jet propulsion? China is already there, potentially. SSNs? China will surpass the US in no time. CVNs? You've seen the recent news. Space launch? Catching up quickly.

But ultimately, the biggest advantage China has is their industry. This advantage is insurmountable. The population writ large is under the misaprehension that the US military today is the same that won Desert Storm.

The only saving grace is that China doesn't have a big history of imperial expansionism. If they did, a few US frigates would be fairly inconsequential.

It makes me very sad. We had a good run, I guess.

 

[Ainen]

Subs have antiship missiles, antiship missiles are the primary threat from subs to the USN. Any convoy escort (for however much longer the concept of convoys is valid) will have to be able to intercept a decent amount of incoming AShMs, which I am currently defining as Oscar or Yasen SSGN as the peak threat, with a lower level threat on the order of 15x missiles (example, Virginia-class with torpedo-tube-launched AShMs in addition to the VLS). A sub like an Oscar or Yasen (and probably like Laika/Husky) can volley massively more AShMs than it can torpedoes.

It's impossible. You're asking for several destroyers for every convoy(banana carrier included), every mission. More so since even multiple Burke's don't guarantee anything. Missiles leak through.

At the same time, anything as stupid as recently popular kamikaze USVs, which can in principle drift anywhere, will remain free to attack everything outside of ~90 strong fleet we're realistically (optimistic) looking at.

It's same as asking every mundane slow Atlantic convoy to be able to fight off Kurita. Preferably with a single ship.

At this point you may ask for submarine/suborbital logistics and trade. Unrealistic.

 

[Scott Kenny]

That’s a ridiculous decision, if they choose to do that then they’ve already lost. Dilandu is absolutely correct.

It is still a possible threat. Your other threat profile is on the order of 15-20 AShMs incoming instead of the 24-32 of the Oscar-Yasen.

Rule of military threat analysis is what is the enemy physically capable of, and plan for that. No matter how likely it actually is.

Any sustained combat response would require a DDG, even Connie would not deploy to such a scenario alone

You really think that the USN wouldn't send a couple of Connies into the Red Sea

A low end cheap PF could simply use it’s helicopter

Instead of ASROC? Yes, that's also an option.

That said, pretty much every ASW ship in the USN has had both. Perrys had ASROCs and helicopters. Sprucans had ASROCS and helicopters. Ticos had ASROCs and helicopters. Burkes have ASROCs and helicopters. The Knox-class FFs had ASROCs and QH-50 DASH ASW drones. Garcia and Brooke class FF/FFGs had ASROCs and helicopters.

You have to go clear back to the Claud Jones class DEs made in the late 1950s before you get to an ASW ship without ASROC, and the USN decommissioned those after less than 15 years because they sucked.

The predecessor to the Claud Jones class DEs, the Dealey-class DE, started out with depth charges and was refitted with ASROCs and ASW Drone helicopters. And the Dealey-class were the very first DEs built post WW2!

So, the ship will have ASROCs in the VLS, plus the triple LWT tubes and a helicopter deck. Plus a hangar. Ideally a hangar big enough for 2x H60 and 2x smaller VTOL UAVs like MQ-8Cs, because helicopters are just that useful for noncombat missions.

in scenarios such as this it would be under the Burke air defence umbrella anyway

So you think we need to permanently station a Burke in the Red Sea. Noted.

It's impossible. You're asking for several destroyers for every convoy(banana carrier included), every mission. More so since even multiple Burke's don't guarantee anything. Missiles leak through.

I'm asking for a Frigate to have less than half the total missile cells of a destroyer.

 

[Ainen]

I'm asking for a Frigate to have less than half the total missile cells of a destroyer.

Cells are glorified boxes. They're pocket change, and you can affordably increase their count in simple ways (cell containers, carrier USV).

What you're truly asking for is sensor suit, supporting high end area ABM/AA mission and full loads of advanced interceptors everywhere. In modern it US will immediately bring you well north of billion, before accounting for rest of the ship. Due to challenging nature of the mission, they'll have to regularly physically shoot these interceptors during training, otherwise it doesn't really count. I.e. no peacetime savings.

It just won't happen.

 

[Dilandu]

It's impossible. You're asking for several destroyers for every convoy(banana carrier included), every mission. More so since even multiple Burke's don't guarantee anything. Missiles leak through.

IMHO, but cargo ships should be able to at least partially fend for themselves in such situation, with containerized missiles (controlled from escort frigates & destroyers) and containerized CIWS/anti-drone systems installed on decks.

 

[Dilandu]

That said, pretty much every ASW ship in the USN has had both. Perrys had ASROCs and helicopters.

Erm... No. OHP's were unable to use ASROC. It was not compatible with Mk-13 launcher, and there were no space to fit a pepperbox launcher on them.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Erm... No. OHP's were unable to use ASROC. It was not compatible with Mk-13 launcher, and there were no space to fit a pepperbox launcher on them.

?

Damnhell. That's what I get for not checking.

Okay, so we have ONE "recent" ASW ship that didn't have ASROCs, while the entire rest of the fleet did. And before that only one short-lived class clear back in the 1950s that didn't have ASROC.

No, LCS doesn't count, they aren't ASW ships.

Thing is, an ASROC-equivalent is faster than the helicopter is to get warheads on foreheads. So an ASW ship of any capability level should have ASROCs in the mix, along with Mk32 triple mounts and the helo.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Pardon me, forgot to tag this one into my previous post.

Cells are glorified boxes. They're pocket change, and you can affordably increase their count in simple ways (cell containers, carrier USV).

What you're truly asking for is sensor suit, supporting high end area ABM/AA mission and full loads of advanced interceptors everywhere. In modern it US will immediately bring you well north of billion, before accounting for rest of the ship. Due to challenging nature of the mission, they'll have to regularly physically shoot these interceptors during training, otherwise it doesn't really count. I.e. no peacetime savings.

It just won't happen.

I gave you 3 reasons why the USN is going to "every main line ship in the fleet has SPY6 and Aegis" already.

1. Personnel - any radar tech can be assigned to any ship. You only need one school for your radar techs, not 5. (well, 2 schools because of the LCS radars)
2. Logistics - any ship can provide spare parts to any other ship.
3. SIGINT - all ships look the same on ESM, no more "SPY-1 detected, there's a Tico or Burke out there" or "There's an SPS-48 and SPS-49, we just found the carrier"

This is not a "Scott is talking about crap he knows little about" moment, this is a "the USN has already committed to this decision" moment.

Is it expensive initially? Yes.
Is it worth doing even though it costs a good chunk up front? Yes.

 

[Jacky]

IMHO, but cargo ships should be able to at least partially fend for themselves in such situation, with containerized missiles (controlled from escort frigates & destroyers) and containerized CIWS/anti-drone systems installed on decks.

Useless, the Allies defeated the Nazi submarine force by relying on their superior shipbuilding capabilities, not on their armed cargo ships.

 

[Dilandu]

I gave you 3 reasons why the USN is going to "every main line ship in the fleet has SPY6 and Aegis" already.

But frigates aren't "main line ship". In fact, I could argue that putting Aegis on them would create "battlecruiser effect" - admirals would put the second-line ships into first line, because their capabilities would be preceived as too valuable for first line (like heavy guns of British battlecruisers - allegedly - prompted admirals to use them mainly as fast capital ships, not cruisers). So basically if you put Aegis on frigate, you would create risk of the situation, where those ships are pulled out of escort duty & attached to the battleline just because "they got Aegis".

IMHO, but frigates should have fire control system optimized for dealing with low-level threats, AND compatible with Aegis to operate against high-level threats.

 

[Dilandu]

Useless, the Allies defeated the Nazi submarine force by relying on their superior shipbuilding capabilities, not on their armed cargo ships.

It's not WW2 anymore. America shipbuilding capabilities are miniscule, and most of world trade fleets are under conventient flags, not under superpowers. A typical cargo ship nowadays is much bigger than a warship & could easily handle additional war load.

 

[Jacky]

The only saving grace is that China doesn't have a big history of imperial expansionism. If they did, a few US frigates would be fairly inconsequential.

China's vast land area wasn't acquired through purchase. If you read about ancient Chinese history, you'll find that China has always been expanding, but limited by ancient technology, her expansion was hindered by mountains and natural climate (with sufficient rainfall to support large-scale agriculture).

 

[Ainen]

IMHO, but cargo ships should be able to at least partially fend for themselves in such situation, with containerized missiles (controlled from escort frigates & destroyers) and containerized CIWS/anti-drone systems installed on decks.

That's partially why I never thought SM-6/tomahawk cell requirement made sense, when it was one of the reasons it destroyed entire ship (and even if it didn't, it would've made them largely pointless another Burkes).

You really can have boxes and even low power ciws elsewhere, what matters is that SPY could provide guidance within reasonable range, for local defense.

This is not a "Scott is talking about crap he knows little about" moment, this is a "the USN has already committed to this decision" moment.

Absolutely didn't mean this, just in case!

SPY-6 is set of sets, after all. It's just that Constellation, IMHO, already was on rich/extravagant side for largest navy with shipbuilding limitations.
But making it even more extravagant is what killed it, both meaningfully and as a design.

 

[timmymagic]

Connies were assigned ASW missions. While Dilandu insists that Oscars and Yasens would be assigned to hunt carriers, the possibility exists that they could be targeted on a convoy, if different political decisions get made.

There is zero danger of convoys or CVN being targeted in the Atlantic.

I posted this elsewhere but it stands up...

Right now the Northern Fleet has the following...

1 Yasen Class SSGN
2 Yasen M Class SSGN
1 Oscar Class SSGN (possibly 2, Russian sources are divided on the status of Smolensk, but all agree she hasn't very long left at all, if shes not actually decommissioned she will be very soon)
3 Akula Class SSN (2 of which have received no updates in the 30-35 years of service and will leave service soon. All 3 of these will likely be replaced with 3 other Akula's that have been in refit for years and years
2 Victor III Class SSN (Have had refits, but questionable combat utility, appear to be used for training, hull life will expire in due course)
2 Kilo Class SSK (Kaluga and Vladikavkaz, neither has received any major modernisation effort in the last 35 years)
1 Lada M Class SSK (Kronshtadt might be operational)

Thats it...everything they have apart from SSBN (which aren't leaving the White Sea) and a small number of old special mission subs (Belgorod has departed to the Pacific Fleet). They will get a couple more Yasen in the future to replace the remaining Oscar Class in full, and likely a couple of Khabarovsk Class plus some more Lada M to finally replace the Kilo Class...

One thing for sure this is not the Soviet Northern Fleet....they're not going to be sortieing out in any numbers, if at all, but the lack of numbers isn't the only problems...

1. The current rate of build 'might' just keep the current numbers up....any delay and they decline...
2. Northern Fleet has 1 whole minesweeper to cover all of its bases...
3. Lack of modern ASW assets including MPA and helos (with no new designs on the horizon) mean what subs they have would all be required to try and hold off NATO subs....
4. If you think the Submarine and Aviation parts of the Northern Fleet are bad....look at the surface fleet...2 'modern' small frigates. Everything else hanging on with a thread....
5. You should read what Russian's think about their current guided Torpedoes, both sub launched and air dropped, and their sonar buoys/sonar systems on helos and surface vessels (they don't talk about sonar on subs though)...the common refrain is that they're ancient and unlikely to be any use....

Basically in time of war the entire Northern Fleet now has one objective....protect the SSBN bastion. Because they don't have the resources to do any more than that...and its not clear if they can even manage that...the Yasen's will all be needed for that role. I doubt they have the forces to even probe the GIUK gap let alone push through. And that position will worsen in the 2030's as more of the naval programmes in Europe deliver T26's, T91's, Type 212CD etc etc...

The real danger is to US convoys in the Pacific.....the Chinese will have studied what every historian on the Pacific in WW2 agrees on....that the Japanese failure to challenge US SLOC's with a submarine campaign was a massive mistake...

 

[Jacky]

It's not WW2 anymore. America shipbuilding capabilities are miniscule, and most of world trade fleets are under conventient flags, not under superpowers. A typical cargo ship nowadays is much bigger than a warship & could easily handle additional war load.

Please use logical thinking. The essence of naval warfare lies in shipbuilding; armed cargo ships cannot avoid their loss. When shipbuilding capacity is negligible, the loss of even one cargo ship is unacceptable (refer to the USS Nimbus's attacks on Japanese shipping during World War II). Even if the exchange ratio of armed cargo ships to the attacker's is 1:2 or higher, I believe the attacker has sufficient production capacity to make up for the losses.

 

[Dilandu]

If you think the Submarine and Aviation parts of the Northern Fleet are bad....look at the surface fleet...2 'modern' small frigates. Everything else hanging on with a thread....

Erm? Two missile cruisers (one nuclear), four destroyers (two refitted), three modern frigates.

Northern Fleet has 1 whole minesweeper to cover all of its bases...

One sea-capable minesweepers. We also have multiple coastal minesweepers specifically for base defense.

 

[Dilandu]

Please use logical thinking. The essence of naval warfare lies in shipbuilding; armed cargo ships cannot avoid their loss. When shipbuilding capacity is negligible, the loss of even one cargo ship is unacceptable (refer to the USS Nimbus's attacks on Japanese shipping during World War II). Even if the exchange ratio of armed cargo ships to the attacker's is 1:2 or higher, I believe the attacker has sufficient production capacity to make up for the losses.

Please use reading skill. My idea was to distribute additional missile containers amongst the escorted cargo vessels, so they could serve as "arsenal ships" for escorting frigates (launching missiles under external control), NOT that cargo ships should fend for themselves.

 

[Jacky]

Please use reading skill. My idea was to distribute additional missile containers amongst the escorted cargo vessels, so they could serve as "arsenal ships" for escorting frigates (launching missiles under external control), NOT that cargo ships should fend for themselves.

I know you want to replace escort ships with armed cargo ships. How many cargo ships are currently flying the American flag and available for conversion? The data I found is less than 200. What if all these ships are lost and the United States faces a shipping embargo?

Faced with overwhelming industrial power, all attempts at opportunism are futile. The Pacific War has proven this. The world's largest industrial nation is no longer the United States.

 

[Dilandu]

I know you want to replace escort ships with armed cargo ships.

Facepalm. No, I don't want to do that. My idea is that cargo ships could carry additional misdiles for escort ships to use. Is that too hard to comprehend?

What if all these ships are lost and the United States faces a shipping embargo?

Just buy more ships from foreign shippers then. Cargo ships, especially not new, arent very expensive.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Think I got everyone in one post this time...

But frigates aren't "main line ship". In fact, I could argue that putting Aegis on them would create "battlecruiser effect" - admirals would put the second-line ships into first line, because their capabilities would be preceived as too valuable for first line (like heavy guns of British battlecruisers - allegedly - prompted admirals to use them mainly as fast capital ships, not cruisers). So basically if you put Aegis on frigate, you would create risk of the situation, where those ships are pulled out of escort duty & attached to the battleline just because "they got Aegis".

The difference is that they don't have the magazine depth to be in the battle line.

So even though they have Aegis, they don't have the missiles to survive a multi-Regiment bomber attack on a carrier group.

Maybe, if a whole bunch of Burkes have been taken out, we'd see the Connies pulling a Taffy 3 and getting placed in carrier groups or other places that required a full Burke or DDGX. But just like Taffy 3 and the Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors, it was knowingly do-or-die.

IMHO, but frigates should have fire control system optimized for dealing with low-level threats, AND compatible with Aegis to operate against high-level threats.

If the USN wasn't looking at those 3 other points I brought up I might agree with you.

In the case of any other Navy I will agree with you.

There is zero danger of convoys or CVN being targeted in the Atlantic.
[...]
Basically in time of war the entire Northern Fleet now has one objective....protect the SSBN bastion. Because they don't have the resources to do any more than that...and its not clear if they can even manage that...the Yasen's will all be needed for that role. I doubt they have the forces to even probe the GIUK gap let alone push through. And that position will worsen in the 2030's as more of the naval programmes in Europe deliver T26's, T91's, Type 212CD etc etc...

Agree that the Red Fleet is NOT what it used to be, and that the priority for the Russians would be to guard the Bastions with their lives.

But again, you make your threat assessments based on what the bad guys CAN do, not will do. "It is unlikely, but the maximum submarine threat we could see is a single Oscar or Yasen, or a wolfpack of 3 Victors/Akulas."

The real danger is to US convoys in the Pacific.....the Chinese will have studied what every historian on the Pacific in WW2 agrees on....that the Japanese failure to challenge US SLOC's with a submarine campaign was a massive mistake...

Agreed here. But I don't know that the PLAN is spending enough time at sea to do a good job.

So they're going to make the attempt, because they will lose if they don't even try. But are the crews good enough to be successful?

Please use reading skill. My idea was to distribute additional missile containers amongst the escorted cargo vessels, so they could serve as "arsenal ships" for escorting frigates (launching missiles under external control), NOT that cargo ships should fend for themselves.

You mean like putting a bunch of Mk70 Typhon containerized launchers on top of the container stacks?

The trick would be adding the data links to be able to respond, but in general I love it!