Current Nuclear Weapons Development

Scott Kenny said:
That is a targeting possibility with any MIRV bus.

And usually comes with a side order of the "insult to injury" mode where you also drop the bus onto the target as a kinetic strike.
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Yes obviously. My choice of system was not just because of the targeting was tongue in cheek about the targeting of 39 1 Mt warheads.
 
Grey Havoc said:
www.telegraph.co.uk

North Korea tells Trump to accept new nuclear reality

Denuclearisation talks between Washington and Pyongyang are ‘nothing but a mockery’, says Kim Yo-jong
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
(Registration or subscription may be required)
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So, the US goes with Plan B for denuclearization: the targeted destruction of those weapons in North Korea.

The UN authorization for the use of force from 1950 still applies in Korea.
 
bobbymike said:
Yes obviously. My choice of system was not just because of the targeting was tongue in cheek about the targeting of 39 1 Mt warheads.
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FWIW 'CLAW' was also used to describe the Polaris A3 with three 200 kiloton warheads - clearly just an early term for what were later termed MRVs, as distinct from MIRVs.
 
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From the article:
The 2-kilogram device produced a fireball exceeding 1,000 degrees Celsius, lasting for over 2 seconds, approximately 15 times longer than conventional explosives like TNT. Notably, this technology does not use any radioactive or nuclear elements.

The bomb was developed by Research Institute 705, under the China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), a key institution in China’s underwater weapons systems development.

The core of this technology lies in the use of magnesium hydride, a silver-colored metallic powder that serves as a solid hydrogen storage medium. Magnesium hydride can store significantly more hydrogen than conventional pressurized tanks.

Initially, this material was designed to supply hydrogen to remote areas as a clean energy source via fuel cells. However, in a military context, its application has evolved into a high-energy thermochemical weapon.

According to the research team led by CSSC scientist Wang Xuefeng, the explosion is triggered by the thermal decomposition of magnesium hydride, initiated by conventional explosives. The released hydrogen gas ignites, creating an intense fireball that burns for several seconds.

“Hydrogen gas explosions ignite with very low trigger energy, have a wide explosion range, and produce flames that spread rapidly and extensively,” Wang explained in his study.
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Iran says US accountability for attacks on nuclear sites part of any future talks

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Iran says US accountability for attacks on nuclear sites part of any future talks
Tehran, Aug 4 (AFP) Aug 04, 2025

Iran said Monday it would hold the United States accountable for attacks on its nuclear sites in any future negotiations, while ruling out direct talks with Washington.

The United States struck key Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, briefly joining a war launched by Israel that had derailed talks on Tehran's atomic programme.

"In any potential negotiation... the issue of holding the United States accountable and demanding compensation for committing military aggression against Iran's peaceful nuclear facilities will be one of the topics on the agenda," foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told a press briefing on Monday.

Asked whether Iran would engage in direct talks with the United States, Baqaei said: "No."

In mid-June, Israel launched an unprecedented attack targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, but also hitting residential areas over 12 days of war. US forces joined with attacks on nuclear facilities at Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz.

The fighting derailed talks that began in April and had been the highest-level contact between Tehran and Washington since the United States abandoned in 2018 a landmark agreement on Iran's nuclear activities.

Following the war, Tehran suspended cooperation with the United Nations' nuclear watchdog and demanded guarantees against military action before resuming any negotiations.

Washington has dismissed Tehran's call for compensation as "ridiculous".

Baqaei said on Monday that Iran was committed to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but criticised what he described as the "politicised and unprofessional approach" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The foreign ministry spokesman said that the IAEA's deputy chief is expected in Iran "in less than 10 days".

Later on Monday, the head of the Iranian parliament's national security commission, Ebrahim Azizi, said the visiting delegation from the IAEA "will be strictly and exclusively authorised to conduct technical and expert-level discussions with Iranian officials and experts".

"Under no circumstances will physical access to Iran's nuclear facilities be granted, and no inspections by this delegation or any other foreign entity will be permitted at the country's nuclear sites," the lawmaker said, according to Tasnim news agency.

Last month, Iran said future cooperation with the UN agency would take on a "new form".

On July 25, Iranian diplomats met with counterparts from Germany, Britain and France, in the first such meeting since the war with Israel ended.

The three European powers are parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, which unravelled after the US withdrew during Trump's first term.

In recent weeks, the trio has threatened to trigger sanctions if Tehran failed to agree a deal on uranium enrichment and cooperation with UN inspectors.

Iran has repeatedly called reimposing sanctions "illegal" and insisted on its right to enrich uranium.

Israel and Western nations accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran has consistently denied.​
 

European powers tell UN they are ready to reimpose Iran sanctions

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European powers tell UN they are ready to reimpose Iran sanctions
Paris, Aug 13 (AFP) Aug 13, 2025

Britain, France and Germany have told the United Nations they are ready to reimpose UN-mandated sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme if no diplomatic solution is found by the end of August, according to a joint letter released Wednesday.


The letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the UN Security Council says the three European powers are "committed to use all diplomatic tools at our disposal to ensure Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon".


"Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on X, posting a copy of the letter.


"If Iran continues to violate its international obligations, France and its German and British partners will reimpose the global embargoes on arms, nuclear equipment and banking restrictions that were lifted 10 years ago at the end of August," Barrot added.


In the letter, the foreign ministers from the so-called E3 group threaten to use a "snapback mechanism" that was part of a 2015 international deal with Iran that eased UN Security Council sanctions.


Under the deal, which terminates in October, any party to the accord can restore the sanctions.


All three have stepped up warnings to Iran about its suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.


That came after Israel launched a 12-day war with Iran in June, partly seeking to destroy its nuclear capability. The United States staged its own bombing raid during the war.


"We have made clear that if Iran is not willing to reach a diplomatic solution before the end of August 2025, or does not seize the opportunity of an extension, E3 are prepared to trigger the snapback mechanism," said the foreign ministers of France, Britain and of Germany.


All three countries were signatories to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the United States, China and Russia that offered the carrot and stick deal for Iran to slow its enrichment of uranium needed for a nuclear weapon.


President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the accord in 2018 during his first term and ordered new sanctions.


The European countries said they would stick to the accord. But their letter sets out engagements that the ministers say Iran has breached, including building up a uranium stock to more than 40 times the permitted level under the 2015 deal.


"The E3 remain fully committed to a diplomatic resolution to the crisis caused by Iran's nuclear programme and will continue to engage with a view to reaching a negotiated solution.


"We are equally ready, and have unambiguous legal grounds, to notify the significant non-performance of JCPOA commitments by Iran ... thereby triggering the snapback mechanism, should no satisfactory solution be reached by the end of August 2025," the ministers wrote in the letter.




- End of cooperation -




The United States had already started contacts with Iran, which denies seeking a weapon, over its nuclear activities.


But these were halted by the Israeli strikes in June on Iran's nuclear facilities.


Even before the strikes, the international powers had raised concerns about the lack of access given to IAEA inspectors.


Iran halted all cooperation with the IAEA after the strikes, but it announced that the agency's deputy chief was expected in Teheran for talks on a new cooperation deal.


Last month Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sent a letter to the UN saying that the European countries did not have the legal right to restore sanctions.


The European ministers called this allegation "unfounded".


They insisted that as JCPOA signatories, they would be "clearly and unambiguously legally justified in using relevant provisions" of UN resolutions "to trigger UN snapback to reinstate UNSC resolutions against Iran which would prohibit enrichment and re-impose UN sanctions."
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A bit of a panic over this North Korean ICBM base:

A couple of excerpts:
North Korea has a secret, previously unreported missile base near its northern border with China, which could pose a “potential nuclear threat” to much of East Asia and the United States, according to a new report released Wednesday.

The Sinpung-dong missile base is located just 27 kilometers (about 17 miles) from the China border. It’s believed to store up to nine nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) as well as their mobile launchers, said the report by Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The site is one of the estimated 15 to 20 ballistic missile bases and warhead storage facilities that North Korea has never declared, said the report, which drew from satellite image analysis, interviews with North Korean refugees and officials, declassified documents and open-source data.

“These missiles pose a potential nuclear threat to East Asia and the continental United States,” the report warned.
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Construction on the base began in 2004, according to satellite images, and it has been operational since 2014, the report found. Since then, the base has been “well-maintained” and continues to be actively developed – potentially reflecting ongoing advancements in North Korea’s missile testing, it said.

It’s not yet clear what model of ballistic missile is stored at the base – but CSIS researchers believe it’s equipped with North Korea’s nuclear-capable Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-18 ICBMS, or a different type of ICBM that has not yet been revealed.

The report also said the base carries transporter launchers or mobile launchers – which can quickly shoot and move to a new position.

“During times of crisis or war, these launchers and missiles will exit the base, meet special warhead storage/transportation units, and conduct launch operations from dispersed pre-surveyed sites,” the report said.
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I think the current administration has moved the needle a bit in that debate, which seems relevant. It previously was rather politically taboo, no matter how Japan has clandestinely prepared for that day.
 
If and when Japan decides to start making nukes it has a shitload of Plutonium in its large stockpile of spent fuel-rods, although the Plutonium would need to go through isotopic separation (Likely using something like AVLIS or MLIS) to purify it into Pu-239 (The separated Pu-238 could be given to JAXA for making RTGs for interplanetary space-probes and the Pu-240-244 used as reactor fuel)
 
Was recently on a NIDS (National Institute for Deterrence Studies) teams call (open to the public with registration) and it was basically concluded the US does not have the nuclear infrastructure nor potentially the political will to build up its forces to match projected China/Russia combined arsenal by 2035. Our adversaries will, quite likely, have a 2:1 strategic weapon superiority.

The sooner Japan and S. Korea build independent arsenals (France/UK Pacific version kind of) the more security they will have.
 
In 2017 Lawrence Livermore National laboratory released a whole lot of previously classified atmospheric test-footage which apparently has revealed new data previously overlooked:


I hope that Los Alamos laboratory mirrors LLNL's move one day as a lot of the footage is very interesting.
 
Have they ever had a successful flight test of this system? I remember it’s development being problematic but I have not seen the project mentioned in print for awhile.
 
Intensified construction work has been seen at a facility central to Israel’s long-suspected atomic weapons programme, according to satellite images analysed by experts. The development at the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona could signify a new reactor or a facility designed for assembling nuclear arms, though the programme's inherent secrecy makes precise identification difficult.
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www.independent.co.uk

Images show construction at site linked to Israel’s suspected nuclear programme

Israel does not confirm or deny having atomic weapons
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 

For the first time, official readouts of the Xi-Kim summit made no mention of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula – a striking departure from the language of the five summits they held between 2018 and 2019.

Analysts say the omission could signal that Kim has secured what he long sought: China’s tacit acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power.

That would mark a stunning turn for Beijing, which had long championed the goal of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, even as Pyongyang accelerated its illegal nuclear and missiles programs under Kim.

“With the denuclearization goal now formally removed from the official readout of the Xi-Kim meeting, a significant shift in China’s long-term policy is confirmed,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Reluctantly but significantly, North Korea’s most powerful ally has abandoned the pursuit of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.”
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About the new M51.4 planned for the new SNLE3G SSBN's (entry into service ~2037)
--> https://www.opex360.com/2025/09/08/...missile-balistique-strategique-mer-sol-m51-4/

On September 7, in a message posted on the social networks X and LinkedIn after being hoisted aboard an SSBN by helicopter, Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu recalled that “our deterrence capability, autonomous and sovereign, is the keystone of our defense system” and that “the investments provided for in the Military Programming Law guarantee its daily maintenance and its modernization to adapt to growing threats.”

He added: “For its oceanic component, this is the case of the M51 strategic missiles produced by ArianeGroup, for which we have just launched the development of its future version, the M51.4.”

This announcement had been expected. According to the budget report published in October 2024 by MP François Cormier-Bouligeon [program 146 – Force Equipment / Deterrence], the “launch of the development of the fourth increment of the M51 […] entails €7.5 billion in commitment authorizations in the 2025 Finance Bill.”

For the moment, no details on the performance of the M51.4 have been released… except that the preliminary studies carried out on the program have “made it possible to determine the adaptations and improvements in range, accuracy, and penetration of defenses required by 2035.” That is when the first of the four third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN 3G) will enter service.
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There also seems to be a "M.X" project in the works, announced by the French Minister of the Armed Forces (now prime minister) during a visit to MaiaSpace this summer.
We don't know if it's just a code name for M51.4 or for a brand new missile.
 
Titus K said:
There also seems to be a "M.X" project in the works, announced by the French Minister of the Armed Forces (now prime minister) during a visit to MaiaSpace this summer.
We don't know if it's just a code name for M51.4 or for a brand new missile.
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I did find this, seems to be conventional but a nuclear variant would clearly be feasible.

Forest Green said:

A French medium-range ballistic missile and ‘very high altitude’ ambitions​



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At the June 2025 Paris Air Show, the French aerospace consortium ArianeGroup made its first showing of models of an in-development surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile dubbed missile balistique terrestre (MBT). The missile is ArianeGroup’s response to France’s ambition to develop operational conventional deep precision-strike (DPS) weapons with a range of over 2,000 kilometres by 2030.
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French ‘very high altitude’ ambitions​

Deep precision-strike capabilities are a key element of the strategy that France announced in June 2025 for the so-called ‘very high altitude’ domain between 20–100 km above sea level. Quoting lessons learned from missile use in the Russia–Ukraine and Israel–Iran conflicts, the strategy envisions greater investment in advanced weapon systems that utilise high altitude to evade mid-course defences and can manoeuvre to overcome terminal-phase interceptors. Such systems include ballistic missiles equipped with manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles, hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and hypersonic cruise missiles. The strategy outlines such systems as particularly useful for suppression-of-enemy-air-defence missions and striking high-value targets. France has been developing HGV technology since 2018 through ArianeGroup’s Véhicule Manœuvrant Expérimental, or V-MaX, which was first flight-tested in 2023.
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Forest Green said:
I did find this, seems to be conventional but a nuclear variant would clearly be feasible.
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Right, it might be a ground launched missile for a VMax hypersonic glider and have nothing to do with SSBN's

It could also simply be M51.4, altought it would seem strange to call it M.X...

BTW, I was referencing this quote :
And I say it here, in front of Martin and all those who lead the company ArianeGroup: we need ArianeGroup to continue taking risks, because that is what the nation expects from this great enterprise.
For its nuclear deterrence, with M51.3, M.X tomorrow. This is not the place to go into it, but we will return to it in another setting. And of course, also for MaiaSpace.
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For french speakers you can listen here at ~30 minutes
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4BdQ5n34Wo&t=1824s
 
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Titus K said:
Right, it might be a ground launched missile for a VMax hypersonic glider and have nothing to do with SSBN's

It could also simply be M51.4, altought it would seem strange to call it M.X...

BTW, I was referencing this quote :

For french speakers you can listen here at ~30 minutes
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4BdQ5n34Wo&t=1824s
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Thinking about it, M.X is probably the next gen SLBM (M51 successor) given the letters.
 

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