Current Nuclear Weapons Development

Forest Green said:
https://us.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-building-two-secret-nuclear-123800582.html
Click to expand...
“Instead of engaging in dialogue, the experts say, China has made its nuclear program more and more opaque. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea all report the state of their “civil” plutonium (meaning not used in weaponry) to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the report urges China to do the same, because it hasn’t since 2017.

Why would China be stockpiling plutonium behind closed doors? “China is presently engaged in a large nuclear weapons build-up that U.S. intelligence officials publicly estimate will result in at least a doubling (or more) of the size of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal,” the experts explain, and accumulating plutonium gives them even more of these critical resources.

It could be that China simply wants large amounts of plutonium as a way to feel competitive with other world powers, or to have a persuasive bargaining chip if needed”
——————————————————
My years old prediction that China will declare soon it needs a New START comparable arsenal to defend itself against Russia/US et al slowly moving forward
 
Last edited:
bobbymike said:
“Instead of engaging in dialogue, the experts say, China has made its nuclear program more and more opaque. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea all report the state of their “civil” plutonium (meaning not used in weaponry) to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the report urges China to do the same, because it hasn’t since 2017.

Why would China be stockpiling plutonium behind closed doors? “China is presently engaged in a large nuclear weapons build-up that U.S. intelligence officials publicly estimate will result in at least a doubling (or more) of the size of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal,” the experts explain, and accumulating plutonium gives them even more of these critical resources.

It could be that China simply wants large amounts of plutonium as a way to feel competitive with other world powers, or to have a persuasive bargaining chip if needed”
——————————————————
My years old prediction that China will declare soon it needs a New START comparable arsenal to defend itself against Russia/US et al slowly moving forward
Click to expand...
I estimate that they already have at least 1,000 warheads operational.

And the only problem with the last statement is that the US sees China and Russia as possibly being one enemy, so then you would have a situation where the US builds an arsenal to counter Russia and China, and then Russia builds one to counter the US, and China builds one to counter US and Russia etc. Three-way arms race.
 
Forest Green said:
bobbymike said:
“Instead of engaging in dialogue, the experts say, China has made its nuclear program more and more opaque. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea all report the state of their “civil” plutonium (meaning not used in weaponry) to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the report urges China to do the same, because it hasn’t since 2017.

Why would China be stockpiling plutonium behind closed doors? “China is presently engaged in a large nuclear weapons build-up that U.S. intelligence officials publicly estimate will result in at least a doubling (or more) of the size of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal,” the experts explain, and accumulating plutonium gives them even more of these critical resources.

It could be that China simply wants large amounts of plutonium as a way to feel competitive with other world powers, or to have a persuasive bargaining chip if needed”
——————————————————
My years old prediction that China will declare soon it needs a New START comparable arsenal to defend itself against Russia/US et al slowly moving forward
Click to expand...
I estimate that they already have at least 1,000 warheads operational.

And the only problem with the last statement is that the US sees China and Russia as possibly being one enemy, so then you would have a situation where the US builds an arsenal to counter Russia and China, and then Russia builds one to counter the US, and China builds one to counter US and Russia etc. Three-way arms race.
Click to expand...
Agree China will claim they are only taking their rightful place amongst nuclear nations, i.e. US/Russia
 
https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/Karber_UndergroundFacilities-Full_2011_reduced.pdf
The intelligence community failed to predict the Tet offensive, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Iraqi WMD program when even the WP reported weeks after the invasion, stores of chemical artillery shells were found buried in an Iraqi weapons store. They failed to predict the Russian invasion of Crimea, yet we should question Phil Karber's assessment of 3k nuclear wpns of the PLA, because the IC says he is wrong.
 
https://asiatimes.com/2021/06/mach-30-wind-tunnel-will-put-china-decades-ahead/
Impressive.

With this most recent achievement, fate has in a single stroke, marked the decline of the west and spelled a new era of wondrous prosperity and peaceful global dominance for the Chinese dragon, which promises to firmly stand in sharp contrast to the historically bloody ascent of western powers and the cruel subjugation it brought to the humbler nations of the world. With the blessings of Chinese quantum direct-current electricity, quantum aircraft carriers and quantum enhanced railguns will be the instruments with which China affirms its noble stewardship of 21st century world politics and offers the non-western world a different option; an humanist alternative to the depredations of Western leadership and the opportunity for a more equitable and dignified multilateralism.
 
Grey Havoc said:
I have to say, I am rather sceptical here.
Click to expand...

As someone else noted (I think in a posted tweet), it always seemed unlikely Biden was going to change any programs without a nuclear posture review. But on top of that, Biden was always a centrist blue hawk. I could see things like the B-83 being retired or the sub launched cruise missile being shelfed, but I'll bet you anything the new ICBM continues to be funded and most likely the new air launched cruise missile as well.
 
Josh_TN said:
As someone else noted (I think in a posted tweet), it always seemed unlikely Biden was going to change any programs without a nuclear posture review. But on top of that, Biden was always a centrist blue hawk. I could see things like the B-83 being retired or the sub launched cruise missile being shelfed, but I'll bet you anything the new ICBM continues to be funded and most likely the new air launched cruise missile as well.
Click to expand...
Given the current nuclear situation there's no sensible reason to reduce nuclear commitments, in fact probably the opposite. Russia are modernising, China has an unknown quantity of warheads but probably at least 1,000, North Korea now has nukes and there's always Iran trying too.
 
No argument here. But I think a lot of people expected Biden to be more antagonistic to these programs.
 
I’d argue given his vintage and his track record that the idea of scrapping major defense programs never even crossed his mind.
 
I guess historically they never cooperated on the BGM-109 and AGM-86 either, although an AGM-109 was trialled.
 
Their requirements are probably far enough apart that I think it is reasonable, though presumable both missiles would at least use the same warhead. I doubt USAF wants to have to deal with the size limitations and marinization features that the USN weapons will likely need. Presumably they would at least share the same basic warhead (some flavor of W80).
 

Similar threads

Back
Top Bottom