Colonization of Mars

Nearly a year in space changed Scott Kelly’s genes, brain function and more, NASA’s Twin Study shows.
Oh god forbid we need to work with Elon to ensure the purity of the human race. The must remain racy, white, blue eyed, blond and curvy. There's no future wthout the babes! :lol:
 
A Martian colony would be a very expensive and doubtfully useful experiment in extreme survival that would not ensure the survival of the species.

If goal is economic, I do not see mars as generating anything of value you could not get on earth much easier.

Yeah.
If ensuring the survival of the human species is truely as the media has made it out to be their assigned goal
then why not spend a single dime when any one of them has sufficient fund to save the world multiple times over from any pandemic. It takes only ~800 million to vacinate the whole world.

Any of my serious plans looks vastly different.
I'm a dreamer so let me entertain space colonization with my:

"Grand Heavenly Plan to save Humanity and Seed the cosmo"

To keep it short I'll cover here only the steps before even setting down a single colonist.
First we need to set up a communications and observation net work. The first step to a solar system wide internet called "Solnet".
Mars-system1-annotated.png

From here on we need to run many projects in palallel.
We need to setup an orbital colony around Earth. It's main purpose is to develope and test our technologies like an EMD aircraft.

We need to setup a transportation network througout the solar system. Beginning with an orbital elevator.
Capturing nearby or on collision course asteroid like 99942 Apophis and change their orbit to one that
goes around Earth-Sun-Mars. And adding more such "shuttle busses" up to Jupiter / Saturn. Keeping their orbit small is to reduce transition time. We are talking about century ventures so these few year long orbit are fine. They are mainly needed for their larger capacity and better radiation protection. Also their orbits would allow multiple opportunites for loading and unloading as they pass by on each half of their orbit.

In fact we already have several in place. Just need to make it happen:
Typical_orbits_for_inner_solar_system_asteroids_pillars.jpg

With this system in place we can colonize Mars, Europa, Titan etc. as well as mine the asteroid belt and ship stuff.
 
As for acually setting down or things up.
You might want to check out the Japanese Rapid-L project(s) from two decades ago. It's a compact reactor for space colonization and only two launches to setup the whole power plant system, cooling, etc. on the Moon. It needs more for Mars and beyond if we talk convential rockets. I dare say this project satrted the hype for the current generation of compact reactors today.
 
I know of no one who things the goal is solely economic, but this also isn’t true. We don’t just mine things because they’re easy, we mine them because they’re economic enough and there’s sufficient demand that even more expensive mines are still profitable. Or as I noted a page or two back, a Martian colony will have to be extremely inventive to thrive, and those inventions can be licensed back on Earth.

Is there some reason the adversity-is-the-mother-of-invention argument does not work for cis lunar space or a planetoid? In any case, we agree there’s nothing of value there outside materials that would be intensely valuable to Martians (water) but be pointless to anyone else.

I know of no one suggesting a libertarian utopia outside of people who don’t like libertarians. But regarding Mars’ sovereignty, by sheer virtue of distance and communications lag it will have a substantial amount of freedom from Earth by fiat. Think of how much flexibility ambassadors had in the age of sail. When it could be months or years before you got a reply from your government, you had to be independent.


If an installation is dependent on earth for resources, then it can be controlled quite easily: deny or limit resources until compliance. The whole distance idea also seems to assume that overt mechanisms of control are not built into whatever political, economic, and technological system is created by the founding organization: no one expects a USN ballistic missile submarine to develop its own government just because it is out of contract for awhile, and any government, organization, or Persian cat owning billionaire is going to install dependencies, security measures, incentives, and loyal personnel to secure their investment. The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress bypassed these issues by having the local security system be sentient and benevolent and weaponizing their earth delivery system such that all of earth was under direct threat.

The Moon has a far worse problem with dust, and doesn’t have the variety of raw materials that Mars has. ‘Easy’ transport off really only happens if you have a mass-driver; it’s likely lunar bases would prefer to save their hydrogen for purposes aside from burning it, as water is pretty rare on the Moon. Al-LOX is possible, but getting the aluminum out won’t be cheap and usually requires carbon, which the Moon is very poor in. As we also don’t know what gravity is good for us other than 32.2 ft/s/s (9.81 m/s/s for you metric types), we cannot say if the Moon will be enough, or if we need more.


I’ve noted some of the Moon’s disadvantages already, and another is that the Moon is too close for truly independent human settlements to emerge. As for ‘more useful,’ how do you define that? I do agree that any level of effort that makes settling Mars practical also unlocks asteroid mining in the main belt, constructing large orbital habitats, building bases all over the Moon, and more besides.

I reorganized the moon paragraphs just to adress it in one place.

Fair point about dust I had not considered.

1/3 vs 1/6 Gravity might hypothetically be a tipping point for human survival, but I would argue the moon is a much safer place to find that out.

Distance: the travel times are not remotely comparable. Were the NASA plans to be funded, there ultimately would be permanent orbit to cis lunar space transportation and permanent gateway landers to the surface by early next decade, with one way trip times in single digit days. Mars is a year slog when the orbits are *properly aligned*, and one way transits are close to the maximum time a human has ever been in space continuously. That is like comparing crossing the English channel to crossing the Pacific Ocean.

As for water/resources - my question would be how much is enough, and how do we know exactly until we go there? Also you note mars has resources the moon does not - what exactly?

As for terraforming, I don’t think objecting to Mars settlement for that reason makes sense. We don’t need to terraform the entire planet right from the start, and everyone serious about Mars that I’ve seen thinks it will be a long process. Paraterraforming much smaller regions is a possibility, and one that could emerge within a few decades of a settlement’s establishment.

Is there some reason other planets could not be Paraterraformed? Building a dome hardly seems like something that would be unique to mars. The only thing that seems to recommend a Mars settlement is the ideal of a true long term terraform, which seems like an incredibly hard thing to properly model and manage even given unlimited time or resources. If you miscalculate an add too much of something, who’s to say the entire project does not ultimately produce Venus Lite.

ETA: grammar and a brutal amount of quote block formatting.
 
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If an installation is dependent on earth for resources, then it can be controlled quite easily: deny or limit resources until compliance. The whole distance idea also seems to assume that overt mechanisms of control are not built into whatever political, economic, and governance system is created by the founding organization: no one expects a USN ballistic missile submarine to develop its own government just because it is out of contract for awhile, and any government, organization, or Persian cat owning billionaire is going to install dependencies, security measures, incentives, and loyal personnel to secure their investment. The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress bypassed these issues by having the local security system be sentient and benevolent and weaponizing their earth delivery system such that all of earth was under direct threat.
This rule is true only if you assume that the Earth is unified and represent a single entity; if the Earth is divided between blocks or inidividual countries with space access, then there would be alternate suppliers to work with.
 
Is there some reason the adversity-is-the-mother-of-invention argument does not work for cis lunar space or a planetoid? In any case, we agree there’s nothing of value there outside materials that would be intensely valuable to Martians (water) but be pointless to anyone else.
Yes: in that there are well-funded entities with a good degree of credibility who want to settle Mars, and none with both who want to settle the Moon; along with the Moon being so close that resupply can be more frequent. We do not agree about materials - a couple pages back I noted a range of metals that could be sold to Earth profitably assuming reasonable transport costs.
If an installation is dependent on earth for resources, then it can be controlled quite easily: deny or limit resources until compliance. The whole distance idea also seems to assume that overt mechanisms of control are not built into whatever political, economic, and technological system is created by the founding organization: no one expects a USN ballistic missile submarine to develop its own government just because it is out of contract for awhile, and any government, organization, or Persian cat owning billionaire is going to install dependencies, security measures, incentives, and loyal personnel to secure their investment. The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress bypassed these issues by having the local security system be sentient and benevolent and weaponizing their earth delivery system such that all of earth was under direct threat.
As Dilandu noted, this assumes Earth is unified. ‘Overt mechanisms of control’ were built into ancient empires on Earth - until the invention of the telegraph and fast oceangoing ships (think the tea clippers), those mechanisms were still nearly useless. A Martian colony could similarly threaten Earth through asteroid bombardment, or even redirecting a rock to strike the Moon to show Mars’ resolve.
Fair point about dust I had not considered.

1/3 vs 1/6 Gravity might hypothetically be a tipping point for human survival, but I would argue the moon is a much safer place to find that out.
If we’re arguing safety, Earth orbit is safer still, and not going at all is safest.
Distance: the travel times are not remotely comparable. Were the NASA plans to be funded, there ultimately would be permanent orbit to cis lunar space transportation and permanent gateway landers to the surface by early next decade, with one way trip times in single digit days. Mars is a year slog when the orbits are *properly aligned*, and one way transits are close to the maximum time a human has ever been in space continuously. That is like comparing crossing the English channel to crossing the Pacific Ocean.
NASA isn’t planning anything remotely of the scale to actually settle the Moon; and Hohmann transfer orbits at the lowest possible energy aren’t the only trip available to us. For a modest increase in energy, transit times can be cut significantly (by months, easily).
As for water/resources - my question would be how much is enough, and how do we know exactly until we go there? Also you note mars has resources the moon does not - what exactly?
That’s not quite what I said, but Mars is immeasurably richer in carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen than the Moon is; and the Moon’s raw materials are usually bound into oxides, so you’ll need a lot of energy to liberate them. There is no reason to believe the Moon has hydrates, sulfates, organics, or phosphates, among other things, whereas Mars does. As for ground truth, yes, that will be valuable wherever we go.
Is there some reason other planets could not be Paraterraformed? Building a dome hardly seems like something that would be unique to mars. The only thing that seems to recommend a Mars settlement is the ideal of a true long term terraform, which seems like an incredibly hard thing to properly model and manage even given unlimited time or resources. If you miscalculate an add too much of something, who’s to say the entire project does not ultimately produce Venus Lite.
Same idea as the inventor’s colony. While it could be done in principle, no one with both money and credibility seems interested. Bezos prefers orbital habitats, not lunar settlements, and doesn’t yet have the credibility anyway. I don’t agree that the possibility of terraforming is the only attraction of Mars, I think it’s one of multiple. As for turning it into another Venus, Venus didn’t become a hellhole overnight, and the energy needed to do that is so large that it’s hard to imagine us getting close and having no idea it’s coming or unsolvable.

Look: Mars isn’t my main interest. If I had the resources I’d be investing into lunar mines, a mass-driver, rotating space stations, asteroid mining vehicles, and space solar power. But I don’t pretend Mars doesn’t have a powerful draw to many and a lot to recommend it. I think the biggest challenge will be medical - can we thrive and raise healthy children in Martian gravity? If not, no one will ever permanently settle it, and the point is moot.
 
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Been a lot of suggestions and the like for how to do it, yet most are monumental achievements and if we actually got to that stage, I am not sure why we would even need a colony on Mars.

Regards,
To become the "cockroaches" of the universe. We're everywhere and you can't kill us all off no matter how hard you try... :D
 
How many people died in the 1600s when they came to North America?
About half the Pilgrims died in the first winter. I don't know the numbers for Jamestown, but they also had losses due to starvation. The settlement on Roanoke failed completely, with no known survivors.

A lot of the death was poor planning and lack of skills. In both Plymouth and Jamestown, the settlers relied on food, supplies, and expertise from the native peoples. Frequently, explicit coercion was the colonists' preferred method of asking
 
How many of them lived at 1/3 g
that's biggest issue for Colonisation
We don't know how humans grow up in Low gravity and if they adapt to earth gravity
special for Moon with 1/6 g

To be on safe site, the colonist have live in large centrifuge who provide 1g
how large 200 meter radius, such large centrifuge could be installed in Lave tube on Moon, Mars or dig in asteroid.
 
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that's biggest issue for Colonisation
We don't know how humans grow up in Low gravity and if they adapt to earth gravity
special for Moon with 1/6 g

To be onboard safe site, the colonist have live in large centrifuge who provide 1g
how large 200 meter radius, such large centrifuge could be installed in Lave tube on Moon, Mars or dig in asteroid.
Another reason for me to support lunar lava tubes. As you say, there is plenty of room to put big centrifuges inside. And it cannot be more difficult that rotating a 8 km x 32 km, billion tons heavy O'Neill space habitat (nah !)
Thinking about it further : inflatables can grow to very large diameters. A pity Bigelow went down many years ago... but the big boss was more interested in UFOs, unfortunately.
Now, into another rabbit hole : I should browse "inflatable centrifuges" on Google scholar.
 
I'll push back for this reason: I think offworld colonies will struggle to attract immigrants if they don't treat them well. Why move to BezosHabGamma if you'll be treated the same or worse as where you live now? Especially in the early years, labor will be too expensive for anyone to risk maltreatment (and making oxygen is pretty easy). Authoritarianism of the sort you postulate appears to me to be far more likely among settled societies with long histories, not young colonies working hard just to survive. Yes, it makes for good fiction, but few people would write - or read - a story about an orbital habitat that didn't have conflict, intrigue or the like.
Well, the colonies would be in control of information getting in and out, so they just have the recruiters lie. Who'd know otherwise?

I don't say it will happen, but I think it's highly optimistic to assume it won't without external oversight.
 
Possibly what stopped the rotation of the core was the apocalyptic impact that generated the Hellas depression, the Marineris valley and the three largest volcanoes in the solar system.

It's not guaranteed that the core will spin again after an impact, perhaps the ancient asteroid is still preventing it in the heart of the planet.

In addition, the re-starting procedure would generate monstrous earthquakes during the adjustment of velocities, perhaps for millions of years, perhaps creating a new Venus covered in active lava.
Or, it was just too small and eventually cooled enough not to be sufficiently liquid to move around enough to generate a magnetic field.
 
Well, the colonies would be in control of information getting in and out, so they just have the recruiters lie. Who'd know otherwise?

I don't say it will happen, but I think it's highly optimistic to assume it won't without external oversight.
Can you think of a single advanced nation on Earth that can prevent all information from getting out? I think it’s highly pessimistic to assume complete information control - not even China has that. Also, why assume all of the Martian colonies act in concert? Why would BezosHabGamma have nothing to fear from LapsaBaseOne offering a better deal and shining a light on the plight of BezosHab’s citizens?
 
Having a situation where being "un-neighborly" gets everyone killed means that you have a much higher chance for weeding out all the violent assholes and work shirkers. "if you don't clean the ventilation filters, everyone here dies horribly."
On this case "the right people" may not be from Grafton, New Hampshire. See https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-into-bear-book-review-free-town-project, https://www.vermontpublic.org/vpr-n...-happens-when-a-libertarian-walks-into-a-bear, and https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterg...a-small-town-battle-to-save-public-education/
 
Can you think of a single advanced nation on Earth that can prevent all information from getting out? I think it’s highly pessimistic to assume complete information control - not even China has that. Also, why assume all of the Martian colonies act in concert? Why would BezosHabGamma have nothing to fear from LapsaBaseOne offering a better deal and shining a light on the plight of BezosHab’s citizens?
North Korea's pretty close, but a country today isn't the right comparison. A building is. The people who own the colony have near-absolute control over who comes and goes and absolute control over communications, as the infrastructure is theirs. How would a message be sent without going through their filters?

As an aside, how much about the rites in Skull&Bones has come out in the last hundred years or so?
 
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Yeah, that is 100% a bunch of people who did not grok the personal responsibility side of libertarianism. Not to mention even the most basic theory of "your right to swing your fist ends at the tip of my nose"
 
North Korea's pretty close, but a country today isn't the right comparison. A building is. The people who own the colony have near-absolute control over who comes and goes and absolute control over communications, as the infrastructure is theirs. How would a message be sent without going through their filters?
Yet despite the absolute control China has over its communications, plenty leaks out from the country. Secure buildings are routinely broken into and their computers hacked; you postulate a repressive state, so presumably they have security cameras, but you don’t make the leap that there would be people invested in hacking those systems. Also, I’ll note ‘external oversight’ can be hijacked and used to oppress; there’s no guarantee that the supposed saintly bureaucrats wouldn’t be taking their cut in return for signing off on whatever the colony leaders want to do. All it takes is one bad leak, and a colony’s reputation on Earth is finished.
As an aside, how much about the rites in Skull&Bones has come out in the last hundred years or so?
More than you’d think, but: does anyone really *care* what comes out of Skull & Bones? Nobody bothers breaking the security of things they don’t care about, except perhaps for fun.
 
Another reason for me to support lunar lava tubes. As you say, there is plenty of room to put big centrifuges inside. And it cannot be more difficult that rotating a 8 km x 32 km, billion tons heavy O'Neill space habitat (nah !)
Well, it certainly requires a huge amount of kinetic energy to rotate an O'Neill habitat but once it's going inertia will keep it going for almost forever. Only close proximity to Earth's atmosphere could cause friction that requires regular input of additional energy.
A centrifuge on planet side requires very good bearings to keep friction minimal but it still requires constant energy input to keep it going.
Also differential between "layers" of artificial gravity will be a constant challenge to sensitive people. This limits the useable radius to small band (about 61m for 250 radii wheel). Well, still better than normal 1/3 gravity but yeah.
Thinking about it further : inflatables can grow to very large diameters. A pity Bigelow went down many years ago... but the big boss was more interested in UFOs, unfortunately.

Now, into another rabbit hole : I should browse "inflatable centrifuges" on Google scholar.
The floor structure inside be better not too squishy for the same reason as above.
 
Or, it was just too small and eventually cooled enough not to be sufficiently liquid to move around enough to generate a magnetic field.
That is a recent theory according to which size matters, but it is not proven, there may also be other factors that generate magnetic fields, for example, it is believed that the planet that collided with the earth forming the moon is still embedded in the core and that makes it irregular and larger than the accretion theory admits. The standard rotation speed also plays a role, due to the inertia of the initial gas ring, which can be altered by a tangential shock, and the planets that have survived have suffered many shocks, both normal and retrograde. There is much to discuss about this, and it is important because the size theory considerably limits the time needed for the appearance of life in other worlds.
 
What makes you think we can't do both; and how much do you think we spend on space versus taking care of our planet? Are we only destroyers, and thus humanity's aspirations must be crushed (by some all-powerful authority, no doubt), or are we also creators?
 
Well, I was just thinking about why "chicken" are needed,An embarrassing mistake

It is I believe specifically American English slang; I think the British equivalent would be ‘bird’? Which is equally confusing to a non native English speaker…

"Sheila" in Australian.
 
The settlement on Roanoke failed completely, with no known survivors.
In the last 20 or so years plenty of archeological evidence has emerged showing that most of the colonists, when the resupply ship did not arrive as scheduled, simply moved to another island to the south, where the friendly Croatan tribe resided. This was the plan agreed-upon before the colony's founder had returned to England, as a member of the tribe had been involved in setting up the colony.

When the founder/financier John White finally returned after 3 years (he was supposed to be gone only a year, then return with supplies and more colonists) he found the message the colony had left carved into a tree (the word Croatoan), and headed for the other island - only to be delayed by a hurricane and then forced to head back to England by his crew. The benefactors who had provided funding for the colony refused to pay for another trip, and White never learned the fate of his daughter and granddaughter (Virginia Dare).

No one ever visited the Croatan peoples until many years later (the Jamestown colony was supposed to send a search party to the Croatan area, but disease etc. interfered, and the mission was dropped)... recent archeological work has found that the colonists and natives were cohabitating, with colonists and natives living in the same villages for years.
 
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Well, if you leave the Earth's territory you're nobody's responsibility anymore. Though people will still demand you owe them obligations and tax.
Whatever wealth and riches you were promised to get paid means nothing out there.
If you don't realize at least this much.
Well, you got at least an expensive coffin with almost no expiration date. And at the rate of the expanding universe due to to dark energy... at some point a trillion years from now your corpse will be the sole inhabitant of the observeable universe.
 
What makes you think we can't do both; and how much do you think we spend on space versus taking care of our planet? Are we only destroyers, and thus humanity's aspirations must be crushed (by some all-powerful authority, no doubt), or are we also creators?
And what's to say other beings are virtual?

I don't believe in the absoluteness of the dark forest but that's no reason to believe it isn't real or impossible.
 
What makes you think we can't do both; and how much do you think we spend on space versus taking care of our planet? Are we only destroyers, and thus humanity's aspirations must be crushed (by some all-powerful authority, no doubt), or are we also creators?

Yes we are creators.......................creators of chaos it seems when I read the daily news.

Regards,
 
And what's to say other beings are virtual?

I don't believe in the absoluteness of the dark forest but that's no reason to believe it isn't real or impossible.
This has nothing to do with what I was talking about, but: I like science fiction as much as the next fellow, but we have no idea if aliens exist, and the Fermi paradox still holds: if they’re out there, why haven’t they shown up here? There’s been more than enough time for it.
Yes we are creators.......................creators of chaos it seems when I read the daily news.

Regards,
Let us all hope you are never in a position of authority over others.
 
This has nothing to do with what I was talking about, but: I like science fiction as much as the next fellow, but we have no idea if aliens exist, and the Fermi paradox still holds: if they’re out there, why haven’t they shown up here? There’s been more than enough time for it.

Let us all hope you are never in a position of authority over others.
The Fermi paradox does not exist. If it's possible to exceed the speed of light, everyone will be communicating with FTL systems while the Seti guys are still listening to the radio, like my grandmother did.

If FTL is not possible, it makes no difference if ET exists, we will never be able to communicate with them and even if there were someone stupid enough to travel for 10,000 years at sublight speed it would be a great coincidence that they chose us as their destination.

Do you know how long it takes for light to reach the center of the Galaxy?

I prefer not to know.
 
Do you know how long it takes for light to reach the center of the Galaxy?
22 000 lightyears, from memory. The Sun races across the Milky Way at that distance from the core, taking 250 million years to make a complete orbit.
 
22 000 lightyears, from memory. The Sun races across the Milky Way at that distance from the core, taking 250 million years to make a complete orbit.
It takes about 25,000 years for light to travel from here to the center of the galaxy.

From what I recall Earth is ~27,000 light-years from the Sagittarius A* super-massive blackhole.
 
Assuming that another intelligent species existed at the opposite end of the galaxy at 54,000 light-years and that it was not possible to exceed the speed of light... who can care what they do or don't do?
 
Assuming that another intelligent species existed at the opposite end of the galaxy at 54,000 light-years and that it was not possible to exceed the speed of light... who can care what they do or don't do?

Exactly, more to the point why would they?

If an advanced race had the capability to go all over the galaxy, what is the point of meeting less advanced civilizations?

They like us would want to meet more advanced civilizations.

Regards,
 
When Richard Archbold organized an expedition to New Guinea, he did not do so to establish diplomatic relations with the natives, but he met all these guys and had no choice but to negotiate with them.

 

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