Is there some reason the adversity-is-the-mother-of-invention argument does not work for cis lunar space or a planetoid? In any case, we agree there’s nothing of value there outside materials that would be intensely valuable to Martians (water) but be pointless to anyone else.
Yes: in that there are well-funded entities with a good degree of credibility who want to settle Mars, and none with both who want to settle the Moon; along with the Moon being so close that resupply can be more frequent. We do not agree about materials - a couple pages back I noted a range of metals that could be sold to Earth profitably assuming reasonable transport costs.
If an installation is dependent on earth for resources, then it can be controlled quite easily: deny or limit resources until compliance. The whole distance idea also seems to assume that overt mechanisms of control are not built into whatever political, economic, and technological system is created by the founding organization: no one expects a USN ballistic missile submarine to develop its own government just because it is out of contract for awhile, and any government, organization, or Persian cat owning billionaire is going to install dependencies, security measures, incentives, and loyal personnel to secure their investment. The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress bypassed these issues by having the local security system be sentient and benevolent and weaponizing their earth delivery system such that all of earth was under direct threat.
As Dilandu noted, this assumes Earth is unified. ‘Overt mechanisms of control’ were built into ancient empires on Earth - until the invention of the telegraph and fast oceangoing ships (think the tea clippers), those mechanisms were still nearly useless. A Martian colony could similarly threaten Earth through asteroid bombardment, or even redirecting a rock to strike the Moon to show Mars’ resolve.
Fair point about dust I had not considered.
1/3 vs 1/6 Gravity might hypothetically be a tipping point for human survival, but I would argue the moon is a much safer place to find that out.
If we’re arguing safety, Earth orbit is safer still, and not going at all is safest.
Distance: the travel times are not remotely comparable. Were the NASA plans to be funded, there ultimately would be permanent orbit to cis lunar space transportation and permanent gateway landers to the surface by early next decade, with one way trip times in single digit days. Mars is a year slog when the orbits are *properly aligned*, and one way transits are close to the maximum time a human has ever been in space continuously. That is like comparing crossing the English channel to crossing the Pacific Ocean.
NASA isn’t planning anything remotely of the scale to actually settle the Moon; and Hohmann transfer orbits at the lowest possible energy aren’t the only trip available to us. For a modest increase in energy, transit times can be cut significantly (by months, easily).
As for water/resources - my question would be how much is enough, and how do we know exactly until we go there? Also you note mars has resources the moon does not - what exactly?
That’s not quite what I said, but Mars is immeasurably richer in carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen than the Moon is; and the Moon’s raw materials are usually bound into oxides, so you’ll need a lot of energy to liberate them. There is no reason to believe the Moon has hydrates, sulfates, organics, or phosphates, among other things, whereas Mars does. As for ground truth, yes, that will be valuable wherever we go.
Is there some reason other planets could not be Paraterraformed? Building a dome hardly seems like something that would be unique to mars. The only thing that seems to recommend a Mars settlement is the ideal of a true long term terraform, which seems like an incredibly hard thing to properly model and manage even given unlimited time or resources. If you miscalculate an add too much of something, who’s to say the entire project does not ultimately produce Venus Lite.
Same idea as the inventor’s colony. While it could be done in principle, no one with both money and credibility seems interested. Bezos prefers orbital habitats, not lunar settlements, and doesn’t yet have the credibility anyway. I don’t agree that the possibility of terraforming is the only attraction of Mars, I think it’s one of multiple. As for turning it into another Venus, Venus didn’t become a hellhole overnight, and the energy needed to do that is so large that it’s hard to imagine us getting close and having no idea it’s coming or unsolvable.
Look: Mars isn’t my main interest. If I had the resources I’d be investing into lunar mines, a mass-driver, rotating space stations, asteroid mining vehicles, and space solar power. But I don’t pretend Mars doesn’t have a powerful draw to many and a lot to recommend it. I think the biggest challenge will be medical - can we thrive and raise healthy children in Martian gravity? If not, no one will ever permanently settle it, and the point is moot.