From the commissioning of the USS Langley to the Battle of Midway was only about 20 years. So, the "70 years" figure is just a scare tactic.
"They're having to develop that institutional knowledge in a culture where questioning your elders just doesn't happen." — The military, by its very nature, is an institution where authority cannot be openly challenged. In most cases, "your elders" equates to "your superiors." Which military in the world would consider questioning superiors a virtue? This is just another tired cliché criticizing the PLA for being rigid and lacking innovation.
I served on subs as a junior enlisted. E5, Second Class Petty Officer to be precise. Yeoman, which translates to "admin guy" for job title but "Helmsman/Planesman," "Lookout," "Force Protection," "Atmosphere Monitoring/OTTO Fuel detector," "Rig for Dive," and "Tagout body" for jobs on the sub.
If an officer was wrong, I was
required to correct them. At least after I got my dolphins, so
by definition actually knew what I was talking about. And yes, Junior Officers did occasionally do something wrong. More senior officers much less often. I still had to correct my Navigator, once.
I
did have to be diplomatic about it
unless it was an immediate life&limb issue.
- "Sir, that doesn't sound right. Shouldn't it be [whatever]" if it wasn't going to kill someone or break equipment.
- If it was going to kill people or break equipment, "STOP! DO NOT DO THAT! [person at risk] could DIE" or "You will BREAK [equipment]" (and soothe ruffled feathers after)
I believe that the airedales have a similar rule
for life and limb. Because they regularly lose at least one person over the side every deployment.
As for "Give them 15-20 years," I'm not sure when you're starting the count. This year? If we count 20 years from now, that would be 2045. By then, the PLAN will likely have 4 to 5 supercarriers in active service, with over two decades of experience operating them. At that point, the PLAN will no longer be a challenger—it will be an equal supremacy, sharing dominance on the Pacific.
I'm going from the
first 6-month deployment of the Chinese carrier with air wing embarked. If that has happened already, cool, let's start the count! I think I was leaning more towards ~2040, personally.
And did I not say that
at that point China would legitimately be threatening the US? When China can field 4 carriers and air wings, they'll equal the forces the USN maintains in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. And at about 6-8 carriers they'll be able to surge as many as the USN.
I'm not sure how many carriers China will eventually make. Their population suggests they could man and support 20+, though they'd need to significantly increase their GDP first. China's 2024 GDP is 64.22% of the US, so they should be able to support 8 carriers.