Chengdu J-10 "Vigorous Dragon" fighter - News only

lancer21 said:
Maybe that's what the west wants/desires, but if any issues between Vietnam and China are resolved amiably i don't see why Vietnam wouldn't want to acquire chinese gear, it's comparatively cheap, very capable and comes without any "baggages" overhyped western systems come with. I'm not sure if Vietnam still operates MiG-21 alongside their Su-27/30 and Su-22 but J-10 would be a perfect replacement for MiG-21/Su-22, giving Vietnam a high-lo mix of Su-27/30 (and possibly Su-35) alongside J-10CE in the near future.
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It does come with the baggage of the country that is trying to invade them. Again. (for at least the 3rd time)
 
lancer21 said:
Maybe that's what the west wants/desires, but if any issues between Vietnam and China are resolved amiably i don't see why Vietnam wouldn't want to acquire chinese gear
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There's nothing wrong with Chinese gear for Vietnamese conditions, it fits well.

It's however last war Vietnam had (and last war in the whole region to date, as it lasted till 1991), sprinkled over >2200 years of rather controversial shared history (Vietnam spent as a part of China not that much less than being self-governed).
I.e. the problem goes from basic school curriculum to highest echelon of military leadership, which started their careers fighting China.

Countries mended substantial part of civilian relationship, but security one remains rather unlikely.
 
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Tomboy said:
So according to a semicredible source we could be expecting to see orders from Indonesia, Algeria and Bangladesh after Uzbekistan's batch wraps up along with possible orders from other "well behaving" countries like Vietnam in the future.
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I have serious doubts about Indonesia, with the Rafale and KF-21 being quite fresh, thus little need for an aircraft like the J-10 (although Indonesian procurement is quite nonsensical, so who knows). While I could see Algeria complementing their Russian heavy twin engine fighters and bombers with a handful of Chinese medium weight single engine jets. As long as munitions can be made interoperable between the majority Russian fleet and the potential Chinese medium jets.
 
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Tomboy said:
So according to a semicredible source we could be expecting to see orders from Indonesia, Algeria and Bangladesh after Uzbekistan's batch wraps up along with possible orders from other "well behaving" countries like Vietnam in the future.

Though they did also mention sales to Iran is very unlikely due to current geopolitical concerns in the foreseeable future.

Anyhow if true that would mean J-10 could have up to 5 foreign operators and likely a overall foreign fleet of 120+, this would be a great first step to Chinese high-end exports.
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not sure why Vietnam keeps being brought up. It's unlikely they will be buying major Chinese weapon systems like a fighter jet for the forseeable time.
 
helmutkohl said:
not sure why Vietnam keeps being brought up. It's unlikely they will be buying major Chinese weapon systems like a fighter jet for the forseeable time.
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This is from chinese insiders, they must have had good reason to mention Vietnam among the other potential or rumoured customers, iirc Indonesia, Algeria, Bangladesh etc.
 
lancer21 said:
This is from chinese insiders, they must have had good reason to mention Vietnam among the other potential or rumoured customers, iirc Indonesia, Algeria, Bangladesh etc.
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I've been around the internet long enough to understand "insiders" say a lot of things, often contradicting things. On Algeria, I've heard "insiders" both say Algeria will be a J-10 customer as well as Algeria was offered but did not want the J-10.
For many of these countries, especially Indonesia, which has been linked to nearly every modern aircraft imaginable, I'll believe it will happen when it actually starts flying under their flag.
In Vietnam's case, they have a working relationship with the PRC and both sides have shown a strong desire to deescalate any potential conflict, but there's still significant strategic and security uncertainties between them that make it unlikely. Similarly, I also don't think Vietnam will get F-16s either. Non-combat aircraft from the US or PRC, yes that's possible, such as trainers or transports.
But Vietnam purchasing a major weapon systems from the PRC is as likely as Turkey or Greece buying jets or ships from each other.
 
snne said:
@helmutkohl Even with increased production, given its current backlog, I don't see any of the smaller Turkic states with Soviet relics going for the Rafale, plus it's damn expensive compared to the J-10CE (~$40-60M flyaway, ~$110M complete export package)... Same goes for the F-16 + its American strings & Gripen...

You raise a fair point though. Central Asian states are heavily influenced by China (& Russia) and operate both Chinese and Turkish equipment. AZ and UZB for example, now both operate Chinese fighters (J-17B-BII/C-BIII & J-10CE) as well as Turkish drones (Anka/TB-2/Akinci)...

But there's no way TA(I) can penetrate that market with Kaan; at most, it'll be with Hürjet as a LIFT/LCA... (mostly smaller states, Kaan's availability for export in the coming decade, expensive to operate, planned aircraft replacement timeframes of individual states, etc.)

Kazakhs asked for the J-16 (reportedly!) because they operate out of only two bases across their entire giant landmass, and they have some Su-27s to replace (Su-30s are still young). What puzzles me about this coverage is the well-known deal with China and Sino-Flanker exports... Surely they must've known about it?

W.r.t. KZ and Su-57; it's in production and most of the 76-aircraft initial order has been fulfilled so far. Russians also recently delivered their first export units, and it's well known that they're interested in selling even more.

Even if Russia has been losing its influence over them, it can never be truly lost anytime soon, and the Kazakhs have plenty of incentive to preserve it -- including replacing their Russian heavy fighters with newer, 5th-gen Russian heavy fighters...

Russian requirements that shaped the Su-57 also happen to overlap heavily with what they need from their new fighter...
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Didn’t Uzbekistan get Rafale pitch originally???

https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2023/11/27/france-pitches-rafale-to-uzbekistan-kazakhstan/
 
snne said:
@helmutkohl Even with increased production, given its current backlog, I don't see any of the smaller Turkic states with Soviet relics going for the Rafale, plus it's damn expensive compared to the J-10CE (~$40-60M flyaway, ~$110M complete export package)... Same goes for the F-16 + its American strings & Gripen...
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Rafale is a defensible pitch for Kazakhstan right now, as current urgent Kazakh requirement is engaging drones, which Rafale now covers. Though it will be weird, buying French aircraft to engage drones, financed by France.

I personally think J-10ce(or maybe L-15) have a chance now, too, if China will bother to demonstrate a similar capability for example this fall in Zhuhai. Despite the range issues.
But this is just an opinion.
 

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