@helmutkohl Even with increased production, given its current backlog, I don't see any of the smaller Turkic states with Soviet relics going for the Rafale, plus it's damn expensive compared to the J-10CE (~$40-60M flyaway, ~$110M complete export package)... Same goes for the F-16 + its American strings & Gripen...
You raise a fair point though. Central Asian states are heavily influenced by China (& Russia) and operate both Chinese and Turkish equipment. AZ and UZB for example, now both operate Chinese fighters (J-17B-BII/C-BIII & J-10CE) as well as Turkish drones (Anka/TB-2/Akinci)...
But there's no way
TA(I) can penetrate that market with Kaan; at most, it'll be with Hürjet as a LIFT/LCA... (mostly smaller states, Kaan's availability for export in the coming decade, expensive to operate, planned aircraft replacement timeframes of individual states, etc.)
Kazakhs asked for the J-16 (reportedly!) because they operate out of only two bases across their entire giant landmass, and they have some Su-27s to replace (Su-30s are still young). What puzzles me about this coverage is the well-known deal with China and Sino-Flanker exports... Surely they must've known about it?
W.r.t. KZ and Su-57; it's in production and most of the 76-aircraft initial order has been fulfilled so far. Russians also recently delivered their first export units, and it's well known that they're interested in selling even more.
Even if Russia has been losing its influence over them, it can never be truly lost anytime soon, and the Kazakhs have plenty of incentive to preserve it -- including replacing their Russian heavy fighters with newer,
5th-gen Russian heavy fighters...
Russian requirements that shaped the Su-57 also happen to overlap heavily with what they need from their new fighter...