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I've been thinking quite a lot about European manufacturers lately and an intriguing what-if scenario came to mind about an alternative grouping of European manufacturers - sort of following on from this thread: https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/wi-dassault-aerospatiale-merger-in-1997.41610/#post-600785
The premise is that the AST.412 competition pitting the Pilatus PC-9 versus the Shorts/Embraer Tucano and the efforts to sell the Hawk to Switzerland led to BAe acquiring a majority shareholding in Pilatus Aircraft circa 1984/85. Historically, in 1995 BAe and Saab formed the joint venture Saab-BAe Gripen AB and by 1998 BAe owned a 35% stake in Saab. If the joint venture came a little sooner it might have been possible to acquire an even larger slice of Saab. The result would be a combined UK-Swiss-Swedish aviation company (not thought of a snappy name for it yet). There are some interesting tie-ups and product lines that could emerge.
Military
Fighters: while there is perhaps a conflict between the Eurofighter and Gripen, it offers a good suite of tiered capabilities as a combat family: Typhoon-Gripen-Hawk 200. Indeed BAe marketed the Gripen/Hawk combo successfully to South Africa and it might have been a persuasive mix in the Southeast Asian market. Ultimately it might see Switzerland either acquire Typhoon or Gripen instead of the planned Super Hornet buy, especially if Swiss jobs helped sway the referendums.
Gripen with EJ200?
Training: much was made of the Tucano's cockpit being similar to the Hawk T.1, later on BAe revamped the Hawk 120 cockpit for commonality with the Gripen for South Africa and Hornet for Australia in the 127. In this timeline the PC-9 is paired with the Hawk as a seemless basic/advanced trainer package which could then segue right into the Gripen. Allows BAe to offer a flying academy and fighter package deal that few other manufacturers could do. Winning JPATS in collaboration with Beechcraft with the T-6A Texan II is another great fillip (another Hawk pairing in real life for Canada/NFTC).
Plus there is the PC-7 as a lower-cost option.
Would the company pursue something like the PC-21? It might be more tied into RAF needs and UKMFTS bids given the PC-9 is doing well. It would seem madness not to develop something like the PC-21 as the PC-9 successor. At the same time, Hawk is also aging and needs replacing but the company can't do both jobs. Could enough sales be mustered to develop something like the M-346/T-50? Probably not. In that scenario, going down the PC-21 route might prove to be the best choice.
AEW & radars: Saab brings the Saab 340 AEW&C. A Gripen and 340 AEW&C package deal sold to Thailand. The Saab 20000 AEW&C followed. In our world, Saab acquired Ericsson Microwave Systems in 2006. If the 1999 acquisition of Marconi Electronic Systems goes ahead as historical, and then Ericsson is added in the early 2000s, that brings in the Erieye system in-house, plus Ericsson and GEC-Marconi had already collaborated on the Gripen's PS-05/A, which used some Blue Vixen tech. It's possible that PS-05/A could be repackaged for Hawk 200 as well. Plus its adding Giraffe/Sea Giraffe to the portfolio as well.
Special Ops/ISR: Pilatus PC-12 is the base offering, it's likely that BAe's influence pushes the military potential of this aircraft a little more than Pilatus did. Saab 2000 as the next step up for MR, SAR and ISR as well as AEW as a direct CASA CN-235 competitor in these roles. 125-700 or 800-based jet variants too.
Civil
Covers a full range of aircraft.
STOL utility: Pilatus PC-6 Porter is a unique aircraft and a good seller. Pilatus acquired Britten-Norman in 1979, so this returns the company to the fold so to speak and offers the Islander, Defender and Trislander as multi-engined utility types. The Pilatus PC-12 pressurised, single-turboprop aircraft, introduced in 1991 also fits within this utility series nicely.
Business: entry point is the Pilatus PC-12 (6-9 pax). PC-24 (10 pax) could emerge as the HS.125 replacement in the 2010s.
Mid-size is 125-800 series (10 pax). As Beechcraft showed in our history, it could be upgraded with winglets and new engines to keep it fresh during the late 90s/early 00s. It's replacement could be something like the PC-24 which is very similar in size but lighter, it could be beefed up in weight for sufficent fuel capacity as a direct replacement from 2014 onwards.
Intercontinental is the 125-1000 series. Would have been replaced in the late 2010s by a new design.
Feederliner: Saab 340 (30-36 pax) clashes with Jetstream 41 (29 pax) but production was very short (1991-97) and only 100 built and competiton in that segment saw the Saab 340 being phased out in 1999. The J41 was probably too small but the 340 was getting long in the tooth so it might be both are let go at the merger to save money.
ATP(64 pax) begins production in 1988 but low sales (64) see it axed in 1996. Saab 2000 (50-58 pax) begins production in 1992, only 63 built and production ends 1999. Both were commercially unsuccessful, it seems the ATP had some poor features. The Saab 2000 is the better size for military use, it might keep the production line rolling a little longer if sufficient military sales against the CN-235 series can be obtained.
Regional airliner: remains the 146/RJ/RJX family. Tailplane and control surfaces were already sub-contracted to Saab, so gives them a share of the workload.
Historically BAe briefly collaborated with ATR, forming Aero International (Regional) which killed the 70-seat ATP/Jetstream 61. BAe walked away in 1997 which also killed the planned 70-seat AIRJET 70 jet-powered ATR derivative. With this combined company it might make sense to continue with AI(R) and rely on ATR turboprop sales and the RJX-85 and RJX-100 and the AIRJET 70 could sit as the base model, which in time could be stretched to replace the RJX during the 2010s and involving France, Italy, UK, Switzerland and Sweden it is a true European project. Saab 2000 avoids need of shorter ATR-58. Chances of commercial success are very risky though.
Airliners: Airbus stake.
EDIT: I've not thought of the implications of something like the historically proposed merger with DASA circa 1999. If that did happen then the Dornier 328/328JET/428JET would certainly revitalise the low-end segment but would affect the AI(R) deal massively and probably kill that collaboration. The 528/728/928/1128 would seemingly offer a 146/RJX replacement. Again, all commercially risky stuff.
The premise is that the AST.412 competition pitting the Pilatus PC-9 versus the Shorts/Embraer Tucano and the efforts to sell the Hawk to Switzerland led to BAe acquiring a majority shareholding in Pilatus Aircraft circa 1984/85. Historically, in 1995 BAe and Saab formed the joint venture Saab-BAe Gripen AB and by 1998 BAe owned a 35% stake in Saab. If the joint venture came a little sooner it might have been possible to acquire an even larger slice of Saab. The result would be a combined UK-Swiss-Swedish aviation company (not thought of a snappy name for it yet). There are some interesting tie-ups and product lines that could emerge.
Military
Fighters: while there is perhaps a conflict between the Eurofighter and Gripen, it offers a good suite of tiered capabilities as a combat family: Typhoon-Gripen-Hawk 200. Indeed BAe marketed the Gripen/Hawk combo successfully to South Africa and it might have been a persuasive mix in the Southeast Asian market. Ultimately it might see Switzerland either acquire Typhoon or Gripen instead of the planned Super Hornet buy, especially if Swiss jobs helped sway the referendums.
Gripen with EJ200?
Training: much was made of the Tucano's cockpit being similar to the Hawk T.1, later on BAe revamped the Hawk 120 cockpit for commonality with the Gripen for South Africa and Hornet for Australia in the 127. In this timeline the PC-9 is paired with the Hawk as a seemless basic/advanced trainer package which could then segue right into the Gripen. Allows BAe to offer a flying academy and fighter package deal that few other manufacturers could do. Winning JPATS in collaboration with Beechcraft with the T-6A Texan II is another great fillip (another Hawk pairing in real life for Canada/NFTC).
Plus there is the PC-7 as a lower-cost option.
Would the company pursue something like the PC-21? It might be more tied into RAF needs and UKMFTS bids given the PC-9 is doing well. It would seem madness not to develop something like the PC-21 as the PC-9 successor. At the same time, Hawk is also aging and needs replacing but the company can't do both jobs. Could enough sales be mustered to develop something like the M-346/T-50? Probably not. In that scenario, going down the PC-21 route might prove to be the best choice.
AEW & radars: Saab brings the Saab 340 AEW&C. A Gripen and 340 AEW&C package deal sold to Thailand. The Saab 20000 AEW&C followed. In our world, Saab acquired Ericsson Microwave Systems in 2006. If the 1999 acquisition of Marconi Electronic Systems goes ahead as historical, and then Ericsson is added in the early 2000s, that brings in the Erieye system in-house, plus Ericsson and GEC-Marconi had already collaborated on the Gripen's PS-05/A, which used some Blue Vixen tech. It's possible that PS-05/A could be repackaged for Hawk 200 as well. Plus its adding Giraffe/Sea Giraffe to the portfolio as well.
Special Ops/ISR: Pilatus PC-12 is the base offering, it's likely that BAe's influence pushes the military potential of this aircraft a little more than Pilatus did. Saab 2000 as the next step up for MR, SAR and ISR as well as AEW as a direct CASA CN-235 competitor in these roles. 125-700 or 800-based jet variants too.
Civil
Covers a full range of aircraft.
STOL utility: Pilatus PC-6 Porter is a unique aircraft and a good seller. Pilatus acquired Britten-Norman in 1979, so this returns the company to the fold so to speak and offers the Islander, Defender and Trislander as multi-engined utility types. The Pilatus PC-12 pressurised, single-turboprop aircraft, introduced in 1991 also fits within this utility series nicely.
Business: entry point is the Pilatus PC-12 (6-9 pax). PC-24 (10 pax) could emerge as the HS.125 replacement in the 2010s.
Mid-size is 125-800 series (10 pax). As Beechcraft showed in our history, it could be upgraded with winglets and new engines to keep it fresh during the late 90s/early 00s. It's replacement could be something like the PC-24 which is very similar in size but lighter, it could be beefed up in weight for sufficent fuel capacity as a direct replacement from 2014 onwards.
Intercontinental is the 125-1000 series. Would have been replaced in the late 2010s by a new design.
Feederliner: Saab 340 (30-36 pax) clashes with Jetstream 41 (29 pax) but production was very short (1991-97) and only 100 built and competiton in that segment saw the Saab 340 being phased out in 1999. The J41 was probably too small but the 340 was getting long in the tooth so it might be both are let go at the merger to save money.
ATP(64 pax) begins production in 1988 but low sales (64) see it axed in 1996. Saab 2000 (50-58 pax) begins production in 1992, only 63 built and production ends 1999. Both were commercially unsuccessful, it seems the ATP had some poor features. The Saab 2000 is the better size for military use, it might keep the production line rolling a little longer if sufficient military sales against the CN-235 series can be obtained.
Regional airliner: remains the 146/RJ/RJX family. Tailplane and control surfaces were already sub-contracted to Saab, so gives them a share of the workload.
Historically BAe briefly collaborated with ATR, forming Aero International (Regional) which killed the 70-seat ATP/Jetstream 61. BAe walked away in 1997 which also killed the planned 70-seat AIRJET 70 jet-powered ATR derivative. With this combined company it might make sense to continue with AI(R) and rely on ATR turboprop sales and the RJX-85 and RJX-100 and the AIRJET 70 could sit as the base model, which in time could be stretched to replace the RJX during the 2010s and involving France, Italy, UK, Switzerland and Sweden it is a true European project. Saab 2000 avoids need of shorter ATR-58. Chances of commercial success are very risky though.
Airliners: Airbus stake.
EDIT: I've not thought of the implications of something like the historically proposed merger with DASA circa 1999. If that did happen then the Dornier 328/328JET/428JET would certainly revitalise the low-end segment but would affect the AI(R) deal massively and probably kill that collaboration. The 528/728/928/1128 would seemingly offer a 146/RJX replacement. Again, all commercially risky stuff.
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