I just figured the RAF wanted the A's in order to screw the RN over lack of B's for the Carriers.
Or has the RAF played the long game, in that they have successfully converted Bs to As to get the Navy out of the loop and are now angling for more Typhoons instead of those on a domestic industry ticket?
 
More leaks, the Times is reporting its kicked a week again as there's still no agreement, floating that No. 10 is now looking at considering the lower end of the increase at £13 billion and the senior officers are furious.
View: https://x.com/larisamlbrown/status/2064703008827384262
I don't understand why this wasn't the first order of business. Nothing has changed strategically or in the national finances for several months, why has everyone waited until now to sort the funding out? If the service chiefs and defence ministers tried to hide how much money was needed then that is entirely on them, but it feels to me like the Treasury nodded along to the lectures on the dire situation and are using the desperation to get a document out to force lower funding at the last minute.
 
I don't understand why this wasn't the first order of business. Nothing has changed strategically or in the national finances for several months, why has everyone waited until now to sort the funding out? If the service chiefs and defence ministers tried to hide how much money was needed then that is entirely on them, but it feels to me like the Treasury nodded along to the lectures on the dire situation and are using the desperation to get a document out to force lower funding at the last minute.
I think the problem is it is the "first order of business" and they still haven't managed to get beyond that, Treasury wanting the low end spending, MOD wanting the high end spending and Starmer seemingly bouncing around on any given day/week between low, medium, high, while apparently arguing that the Defence Review recommendations were meant to have built in no defence spend uptick. Hence why the delays, cause they still can't decide the budget for the DIP and so its still circling where it started.
 
Why is the DIP even necessary?
Don't army chiefs know the current and desirable force structures?
Don't they know what kit they want and how much money to ask for it?
Usually there's some sort of acquisitions department in the MoD with personnel relevant to specific branches and programs.
 
Sounds like the proposed plan required significant cuts to existing forces. I can't see this ending well. Not sure who'll replace him, maybe Pollard or Carns?
 
So, if Healey goes, is this not just handing the matter to the Treasury? I don't understand how this galvanises Starmer and Reeves to spend more on defence; it simply removes the biggest block to further reductions, which was Healey.

It was said for a while that £18b meant delays, £15b meant cuts and delays, and £12b was cuts. Given what Healey says in his letter about 'decisions that would reduce the readiness' of the British military, I reckon cuts are on the way.

Furthermore, the acknowledgement that he did not receive the DIP settlement till Monday casts an ominous shadow over commitments made in recent weeks - for example, the threat of reductions in ship-building orders.
 
Sounds like the proposed plan required significant cuts to existing forces. I can't see this ending well. Not sure who'll replace him, maybe Pollard or Carns?
Carns would be nice but he's very drone brained. Might be able to scare the Treasury into submission, though.
 
Al Carns is backing Healey it seems:
The Armed Forces minister has declared that defence investment plan (DIP) is “not fit for purpose”.

Al Carns called on Sir Keir Starmer to “sort this out” in a scathing intervention of his own following the resignation of John Healey as defence secretary.
 
This is embarrassing. Just slap some numbers on a page and release it.
It's not like anyone is going to go back and re-read it in five years' time and if you put the years of maximum spend after the next General Election it's someone else's headache.

Besides this is the age of continual review, we all know there will be another Industrial Strategy, Defence White Paper, Defence Brown Paper and Investment Strategy Refresh Review within a couple of years anyway just to keep the policy hokey-cokey going.
 
Healey’s resignation letter from the BBC.

'You have been unable to commit the resources the nation needs'published at 13:02
13:02​


We can now bring you more excerpts from John Healey's resignation letter - in which he accuses PM Keir Starmer of failing to commit the resources the military needs.

Excerpt from Joh Healey’s resignation letter: This new era for defence required further investment through the Defence Investment Plan. The excellent and extensive cross-government work that completed in January – overseen by you, me and the Chancellor – confirmed the scale of the challenge and the rising demands on defence.Since then, you have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.

Excerpt from Joh Healey’s resignation letter: However, your DIP financial settlement – which I was first given in full on Monday afternoon this week – falls well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time.

Excerpt from Joh Healey’s resignation letter: You know what defence needs. You made the argument for this powerfully in your speech at the Munich Security Conference back in February. Without a DIP that meets the moment in this way, I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our Forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations, and could make the country less safe.
 
So having built a reputation in Defence and relationships with the MIC and Intelligence 'community'.
He resigns with an excoriating letter made public.

Leadership challenge in 1, 2, 3?
 
So having built a reputation in Defence and relationships with the MIC and Intelligence 'community'. He resigns with an excoriating letter made public. Leadership challenge in 1, 2, 3?
Or thinking he’s got a shot at reappointment under a Burnham PM? Telegraph is flagging Dan Jarvis as a possible replacement today.
 
Don't know him? A Treasury-backed appointment?
Former solider of the parachute regiment, currently in the Home Office.

Also more details on what was on offer, it was to be 10 billion in real cash, 3.5 billion in Treasury “tricks”, and No. 10 was trying to force it out this week without debate.
 
However Healey might be calculating that Burnham might want his backing and make that the pricetag. Given the state of UK politics who the hell knows really...
His team have supposedly denied a personal leadership challenge so that might be it. Streeting has come out in support of Healey too.
Given the credibility he has gained from resigning I daresay Healey might have the pick of the cabinet positions in any post-Starmer government. He'd make an excellent foreign secretary if Carns was running the MoD IMO.
 
his whole thing is increasing the Treasury burden on public services.
It's worth noting that governments doing things is not a 'burden', and defence is a public service. It's also not inconsistent to take the view that the primary job of the Treasury is to make money available for the things the government wants to do.

Burnham's policies in Manchester may well be informative about some of the things he might wish to do as PM. However, since (as far as I know) it does not have an independent defence policy, it's unlikely you can draw any firm conclusions on that front.
 
Based on Kier Starmer's response to John Healey, it looks like those additional £10b are all that coming. The DIP will allow the armed forces to 'transform and modernise', apparently.

So, cuts are on the way. The question I'd ask now is what can the armed forces afford to delay or cut?

Starting with the RN, I think MRSS and T83 will both see significant "rescoping". Dreams of large LPDs and heavy, drone-toting destroyers are probably out the window. I think MRSS will probably be cancelled formally, and replaced with a programme for three Bay-class replacements of a similar size and capability.

T83 will be shelved until the mid-2030s, and will probably be a frigate-sized vessel operating a small basal armament, and surrounded by drones. I'd be hesitant on exo-atmospheric BMD (but that was always assumed to be a difficult sell).

T32 probably gone for good, if mentioned at all.

SSN-AUKUS will be fine, but only in the sense that the major money needs to arrive around 2028, and that for Boat-1. May see delays though.

T26/T31 probably fine.

No more F-35Bs?

Those are my guesses.
 
Based on Kier Starmer's response to John Healey, it looks like those additional £10b are all that coming. The DIP will allow the armed forces to 'transform and modernise', apparently.

So, cuts are on the way. The question I'd ask now is what can the armed forces afford to delay or cut?

Starting with the RN, I think MRSS and T83 will both see significant "rescoping". Dreams of large LPDs and heavy, drone-toting destroyers are probably out the window. I think MRSS will probably be cancelled formally, and replaced with a programme for three Bay-class replacements of a similar size and capability.

T83 will be shelved until the mid-2030s, and will probably be a frigate-sized vessel operating a small basal armament, and surrounded by drones. I'd be hesitant on exo-atmospheric BMD (but that was always assumed to be a difficult sell).

T32 probably gone for good, if mentioned at all.

SSN-AUKUS will be fine, but only in the sense that the major money needs to arrive around 2028, and that for Boat-1. May see delays though.

T26/T31 probably fine.

No more F-35Bs?

Those are my guesses.
Really leaves a question mark for what does Babcock do next, clocks ticking on how much the yard has left if they can’t get an export order.
 
Dan Jarvis new Defence Secretary.
Carns has also resigned after giving a pretty explosive interview to Sky News that's well worth watching, along with Pamela Nash, the parliamentary private secretary for defence.
 
Al Cairns has now resigned as well, again attacking the funding for the DIP, so has the Parliamentary Private Secretary. And Dan Jarvis has been appointed Secretary of Defence. All this the day before Trooping the Colours

Edit:Ninja'd
 
T32 was always an illusion.
MRSS, frankly Bay like ships is all trade-able.

They could go a Absolon-like solution, which fits a more distributed and raiding model. Make it a variant of Type 31.......

Arguably they could revert to a revised Ivar Huitfeldt as a Type 46. Be ironic but it could suck the Danes in....

Mr Cairns has resigned too, as has Louise Sandher-Jones along with Lord Coaker.
 
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Mr Cairns has resigned too, as has Louise Sandher-Jones along with Lord Coaker.
Where have you seen Sandher-Jones and Coaker?
Healey, Nash and Carns all posted resignation letters on social media and the BBC haven't mentioned the other two.
 
That's from 2017 from one of Labour's heaves against Corbyn.
Oh bugger. Must be a bum steer from a fellow I know.
Got my hopes up
 
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Reading Al Carns letter is odd, because Healey's letter suggested there wasn't enough focus on legacy systems in the DIP, and Carns' suggests that there wasn't enough focus on drones, and too much focus on legacy systems.

So who knows?
 
Reading Al Carns letter is odd, because Healey's letter suggested there wasn't enough focus on legacy systems in the DIP, and Carns' suggests that there wasn't enough focus on drones, and too much focus on legacy systems.

So who knows?
I thought Healey's was very neutral in that regard, though earlier in the week there were rumours that he was more conservative drone wise.
Carns has always been on the autonomy side; he went into politics because he thought the MoD weren't adopting Ukraine's new kit quickly enough.
 
I thought Healey's was very neutral in that regard, though earlier in the week there were rumours that he was more conservative drone wise.
Carns has always been on the autonomy side; he went into politics because he thought the MoD weren't adopting Ukraine's new kit quickly enough.
No, Healey was apparently very pro-drone, much to the anger of the defence chief. I think I remember the posts you're talking about, they issued a correction in the comments below.
 
Meh, there's never going to be enough cash. We've several PMs going back to Johnson claiming massive increases here, massive increases there and yet its never really amounted to anything.
Billions on Ajax which makes everyone chuck up if it goes over a speedbump, warmed over Challys, a handful of Poseidon's, a fingerful of Wedgies, half the RAF fleet incompatible with the PFI tankers it has, drone fever, Battle of the Atlantic 3.0 feverdreams, multinational fighters and nuke subs that may be cutting-edge cool or overpriced and delayed depending on how they actually mature past the CGI vapourware stage.

You could give the MoD £30 billion and we'd still end up with half of what we planned with two-thirds of that kit laid up without manpower or spare parts.
 
I've noticed that key positions in UK politics change hands really often—doesn't that affect how the UK implements certain policies?
 
I've noticed that key positions in UK politics change hands really often—doesn't that affect how the UK implements certain policies?
Yes and no.

In the UK system, a lot of institutional power is held by the permanent Civil Service, with the elected offices giving direction and oversight. The result is that there's a tendency for things to keep going in the same direction, and a bit of a view that 'no matter who wins the election, the government gets in' - significant policy change is very hard, which is both a blessing and a curse.
 
I wonder if the new Defence Minister will help move the SDR along much faster than it was going? To delay the SDR is crazy.
 
I wonder if the new Defence Minister will help move the SDR along much faster than it was going? To delay the SDR is crazy.
I would expect that Starmer has chosen someone who will get a version of DIP accepted ASAP. Given that the previous SoS left, and the Chancellor is staying, that probably suggests quite strongly who's won the Cabinet battle.
 

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