Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!

[F-2]

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-confirms-negotiations-for-french-rafale-jets/

Could France realistically free up Rafales? Especially with FCAS on the deathbed and order books full with previous export orders?

I was under the impression they had a formidable back log. Unless they plan on selling used to make room for F5.

 

[Titus K]

I was under the impression they had a formidable back log. Unless they plan on selling used to make room for F5.

There could be a couple new airframes available for delivery in 2029, and between 15 and 30 per year from 2030 onwards.

France could also accept to transfer some used airframes (like for Grece & Croatia) / or transfer some of it's own new Tranche 5 Rafales F4 (delivery starting in 2027).

 

[TomcatViP]

15 to 30 new airframe per year?!!

When was that a real thing beyond the repeated claims every single year since more than a decade of increasing the manufacturing rate?

 

[BonPlan2]

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-confirms-negotiations-for-french-rafale-jets/

Could France realistically free up Rafales? Especially with FCAS on the deathbed and order books full with previous export orders?

I don't think so. The french Rafale fleet is not so important and, according to french air force chief of staff, already 15% over used.
And the Dassault order book full for the next years.

 

[BonPlan2]

France could also accept to transfer some used airframes (like for Grece & Croatia) / or transfer some of it's own new Tranche 5 Rafales F4 (delivery starting in 2027).

not impossible, but now that the export carrier of Rafale is lauched, and with russia threat, it is less probable.

 

[Titus K]

15 to 30 new airframe per year?!!

When was that a real thing beyond the repeated claims every single year since more than a decade of increasing the manufacturing rate?

Repeated claims from forum members/bloggers, or official statements made by the company itself in financial releases or press conferences ?

Dassault is a publicly traded company, Trappier can’t just make statements like that without facing consequences if expectations aren’t met.

We were at one plane delivered per month in 2020, we delivered 21 in 2024 and we are already at rate 3 in our upstream factories"
"We are moving to rate 4 in the next two years and I am studying the transition to rate 5 if necessary"

A recap in the press :

https://www.challenges.fr/entreprise/defense/passer-de-1-a-4-rafale-produits-par-mois-le-defi-majuscule-de-dassault_606004

This commercial success presents Dassault with a major industrial challenge. After years of producing eleven aircraft per year (one per month)—the minimum rate needed to keep the supplier network alive—the French manufacturer, which has already increased to two aircraft per month, must ramp up to three in 2026, then four in 2028–2029.

“We are studying the possibility of reaching five Rafale per month,” says Éric Trappier, the group’s CEO. “If necessary, we have the space at the Mérignac site. We’ll build additional hangars and hire more workers.”

The rate is currently ramping up toward 4 (≈44 per year), increasing at a pace of around +5 per year (or +1 rate point every 2 years)
25 deliveries are expected this year and probably around 30 next year for example...

Given the current orderbook and delivery commitments, they’ll 100% need to deliver 40+ aircraft per year by 2029.

A rate of 5 (≈55 per year) is being considered, but it won’t be reached before 2030 (and we've heard it would be a real challenge)
The issue is that the orderbook becomes quite shallow after 2030, so such a rate isn’t really needed long term, and could even be detrimental to the sustained survival of the assembly line.

That’s why I mentioned that many aircraft could be delivered to export clients (including UKR) after 2030.

Also, to show why there was never a need to drastically increase the Rafale production rate before, and why it’s necessary now. here’s Dassault’s yearly backlog vs. deliveries (yellow for Rafale, dotted line for backlog).

 

[TomcatViP]

Appreciate the detailed reply. However the curves speak for themselves: there are no 15 to 30 airframe available anytime soon. Also, remember that the space b/w backlog and deliveries curves directly translates to the instant waiting time. Something that most potential customers keep a close track of.
One point though, Dassault has included AdlAE Rafale handed over to foreign nations by Presidential order. Those airframe have significantly impacted the yearly delivery number when that happened.

 

[H_K]

One point though, Dassault has included AdlAE Rafale handed over to foreign nations by Presidential order. Those airframe have significantly impacted the yearly delivery number when that happened.

Dassault only reports on deliveries of new build Rafales from its factories.

Second-hand sales between operators are never included.

I think @Titus K is correct that there are still a few delivery slots starting around 2029, with plenty available from 2031 onwards. Customers don't have many good alternatives as deliveries are backed-up everywhere you look (F-35, F-16V, Eurofighter and now Gripen with the Ukraine deal).

 

[TomcatViP]

This was already discussed and the relevant information are in this thread for the reader to see (if not deleted by mods)*.
The surge around 25 airframe are for jets kept in France for training foreign users that were then delivered at the end of the syllabus (training done by the AdlAE).

The point being that the surge in capacity must happen before such prediction are discussed rationally here.
Just like the 150 Ukrainian Gripen won't comes out of Linkoping tomorrow with no industrial build-up as this was acknowledged, somewhat, right on their first announcement.

 

[BonPlan2]

Dassault only reports on deliveries of new build Rafales from its factories.

Second-hand sales between operators are never included.

I think @Titus K is correct that there are still a few delivery slots starting around 2029, with plenty available from 2031 onwards. Customers don't have many good alternatives as deliveries are backed-up everywhere you look (F-35, F-16V, Eurofighter and now Gripen with the Ukraine deal).

no inked Gripen deal so far. I think it will takes time, if ever, as parts of Gripen are US.

 

[UpForce]

"Pas 185, mais 230 avions de chasse" : l'appel du chef d'état-major de l'armée de l'Air pour "tenir dans la durée" | TF1 Info

[VIDÉO] Le chef d'état-major de l'armée de l'Air et de l'Espace a plaidé jeudi pour une hausse du nombre des avions de chasse. "Notre format doit viser non pas 185, mais 230 avions de chasse", a affirmé le général Jérôme Bellanger. Le but est d'assurer les missions de l'armée de l'Air et de...

www.tf1info.fr

The Chief of Staff of the French Air and Space Force is asking for 45 additional Rafales, up from 185 to 230. The current fleet is flying at a rate 15% greater than originally intended so the excess of flying hours adds up to a shortfall of jets. The defense budget is on the rise but does not include additional Rafales at the moment.

 

[Titus K]

The Chief of Staff of the French Air and Space Force is asking for 45 additional Rafales, up from 185 to 230. The current fleet is flying at a rate 15% greater than originally intended so the excess of flying hours adds up to a shortfall of jets. The defense budget is on the rise but does not include additional Rafales at the moment.

A new order is planned during this military programming law, but it would only bring the air force’s fleet to around 200 aircraft.

Tome VI - Défense : Préparation et emploi des forces : Air

www.assemblee-nationale.fr

● The 6th Rafale (6T) production tranche, composed of F5 standard aircraft, should be ordered in 2029.
Of the 45 aircraft ordered, thirty-three should be destined for the Air and Space Force and the other twelve for the Navy.

That's where the infamous "ideally we would need 30 more Rafales" statement from the then defence minister, now prime minister comes from i think ... 200+30 = 230 Air Force + 50 Navy

 

[Titus K]

As usual to be confirmed ...
https://shafaq.com/ar/

The source told Shafaq News Agency that "the final touches have been put in place to complete the implementation of the agreement signed between Iraq and France, in the export of the latter (Rafale fighter aircraft), where financial matters have been agreed, schedule their payment and set initial dates for their delivery successively and according to the financial payment payments, which will give Iraq an additional defensive power to its defense security system in protecting its borders in addition to enhancing its air capabilities."

According to the source, "the diversification of armament sources gives Iraq the space to choose processing outlets from important origins and at a lower financial cost, as the value of the contract concluded for French aircraft is more than 3 billion dollars, compared to other arms offers with the same content, not to mention the challenges of armament."

 

[helmutkohl]

interesting, French fighters back in Iraq again. I think their last french aircraft were the Mirage F.1s? are they all with Iran now?

 

[BonPlan2]

"Pas 185, mais 230 avions de chasse" : l'appel du chef d'état-major de l'armée de l'Air pour "tenir dans la durée" | TF1 Info

[VIDÉO] Le chef d'état-major de l'armée de l'Air et de l'Espace a plaidé jeudi pour une hausse du nombre des avions de chasse. "Notre format doit viser non pas 185, mais 230 avions de chasse", a affirmé le général Jérôme Bellanger. Le but est d'assurer les missions de l'armée de l'Air et de...

www.tf1info.fr

The Chief of Staff of the French Air and Space Force is asking for 45 additional Rafales, up from 185 to 230. The current fleet is flying at a rate 15% greater than originally intended so the excess of flying hours adds up to a shortfall of jets. The defense budget is on the rise but does not include additional Rafales at the moment.

The 185 are even now not reached...
I think the UCAV of Rafale F5 will change the final number. If France purchase 50 UCAV, what about the effect on the Rafale number?

 

[lancer21]

interesting, French fighters back in Iraq again. I think their last french aircraft were the Mirage F.1s? are they all with Iran now?

Yes about two dozen F1EQ/BQ evacuated to Iran in 1991, though the current status is a bit unclear, at least some of them were used fairly recently by IRIAF.

 

[Deltafan]

After Turkey's Eurofighter order, Greece would like to order 24 additional Rafales.

Τα επόμενα Rafale και η μάχη για το τεχνολογικό πλεονέκτημα

Η έκδοση F4 των νέων ελληνικών μαχητικών ξεχωρίζει από την F3R, καθώς διαθέτει ισχυρότερα ηλεκτρονικά συστήματα, δυνατότητα μεταφοράς νέων όπλων αλλά και βελτιώσεις στην υποστήριξη.

www.kathimerini.gr

According to sources with excellent knowledge of the discussions at the political and military level, before the end of the decade the Air Force will move in the direction of acquiring additional Rafale to replace the Mirage 2000-5, which will soon cease to be supported by the manufacturer Dassault. Besides, the need to acquire another Rafale squadron also stems from the new force structure, which has the approval of the Parliament and the KYSEA, in order to reach the ceiling of 200 modern fighter aircraft.

The same sources state that the new Rafale order will concern the most modern version of the fighter, i.e. the F4 which is currently the industrial standard of the aircraft

As usual, to be confirmed.

 

[Titus K]

2 more Indonesian Rafales spotted

 

[snne]

Just wanted to share this rare yet beautiful sight with you all - Turkish F-16s and French Rafales flying over the UAE:

 

[snne]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1985397188990812444

View: https://x.com/Tom_Antonov/status/1985397188990812444?s=20

 

[yeetmahboi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1985397188990812444

View: https://x.com/Tom_Antonov/status/1985397188990812444?s=20

Someone should mash up an airliner variant for this, heh...

 

[Forest Green]

And that's without making use of the pylons.

 

[BonPlan2]

After Turkey's Eurofighter order, Greece would like to order 24 additional Rafales.

Τα επόμενα Rafale και η μάχη για το τεχνολογικό πλεονέκτημα

Η έκδοση F4 των νέων ελληνικών μαχητικών ξεχωρίζει από την F3R, καθώς διαθέτει ισχυρότερα ηλεκτρονικά συστήματα, δυνατότητα μεταφοράς νέων όπλων αλλά και βελτιώσεις στην υποστήριξη.

www.kathimerini.gr

As usual, to be confirmed.

They have 24 Mirage 2000 to replace. That doesn't mean automatically that they will order 24 Rafale. Probably less. 12? 18?

 

[Deltafan]

Will France deliver Rafales to Ukraine? (answer tomorrow)

La France va-t-elle livrer des Rafale à l'Ukraine ?

Volodymyr Zelensky en visite à Paris le lundi 17 novembre (Actualisé)La France s'apprête-t-elle à fournir des Rafale à l'Ukraine ? Le sujet sera au menu de la visite du président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky ce lundi 17 novembre. Selon les éléments fournis par l'Elysée, où il sera reçu par...

www.secretdefensev2.com

Is France preparing to supply Rafales to Ukraine? The subject will be on the agenda of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit this Monday, November 17. According to information provided by the Elysée, where he will be received by Emmanuel Macron, a “briefing with industrialists” followed by the “signing of a letter of intent” are planned for the morning. The Elysée specifies that the briefing will focus on the “Rafale aircraft and its armament”, the “SAMP/T NG system with Aster 30 B1 NT”, the “GF300 radar” and “drone systems”
(...)
In addition to the Rafale, it will be about its armament (long-range Meteor air-to-air missile? Scalp cruise missile?), the new version of the SAMP/T ground-to-air system, comparable to the Patriot, with the new GM 300 radar from Thalès, and “drone systems”.

 

[FighterJock]

So what variant of the Rafale will be delivered if this is true?

 

[Titus K]

Like indonesia, Serbia or the Indian Navy probably F4 (4.2/4.3) variants, no point in selling a downgraded version, and F5 won't be ready yet.
The last F3R are the Egyptian ones being delivered right now.

But the new F4 should be fully upgradable to F5 (and compatible with the UCAV)

 

[FighterJock]

True Titus K, a downgraded variant would be useless.

 

[eagle]

Will France deliver Rafales to Ukraine? (answer tomorrow)

My guess is France will deliver more Rafales to Greece to completely replace the M2000. These may in turn find their way to Ukraine, in addition to more ammo.

 

[TomcatViP]

Things would have been so much easier if the M2K line was not artificially shut. The old Mirage is still better suited than Gripen E and Rafale for Ukraine: single efficient engine, High climb rate, high speed, Range in A2A mission. It only needs a truly honest upgrade to match the Russian threat.
Now, if all the tooling jigs are still available, just throw the damn thing to Ukraine and let them have their Mirage built by their own hands in hundreds.

Mirage you'd say?

 

[snne]

Things would have so much easier if the M2K line was not artificially shut. The old Mirage is still better suited than Gripen E and Rafale for Ukraine: single efficient engine, High climb rate, high speed, Range in A2A mission. It only needs a truly honest upgrade to match the Russian threat.
Now, if all the tooling jigs are still available, just throw the damn thing to Ukraine and let them have their Mirage built by their own hands in hundreds.

Mirage you'd say?

IMPO, this trumps all else:

It doesn't necessarily mean that no other aircraft can replicate this, but the Gripen has been designed from the ground up with this operational concept in mind as priority, and this is exactly what Ukraine needs more than anything else. (instead of having a type of aircraft concentrated at several bases.)

 

[Ainen]

It doesn't necessarily mean that no other aircraft can replicate this, but the Gripen has been designed from the ground up with this operational concept in mind, and this is exactly what Ukraine needs more than anything else.

3 rather simple adoptations here - really reinforced structure, huge "bulbed" 1850L tanks, tall yet strong chassis permitting sufficiient clearance for big payloads underneath. Despite its size and antiquated engine, it can operate from safer bases directly.

Mirage 2000 is really an examplary light fighter bomber, which is why there are two projects trying to get into its niche.

 

[snne]

3 rather simple adoptations here - really reinforced structure, huge "bulbed" 1850L tanks, tall yet strong chassis permitting sufficiient clearance for big payloads underneath. Despite its size and antiquated engine, it can operate from safer bases directly.

Mirage 2000 is really an examplary light fighter bomber, which is why there are two projects trying to get into its niche.

I agree with all the above, but again, which one is better at dispersed operations? You might base it on the roads, but for how long? The optimal solution would be to have both the Gripen and the Mirage, but none of that really matters if the base you fly your jets from is regularly hit.

 

[TomcatViP]

When was the last time we have seen a Russian aircraft past Kyiv? You are not going to close all Ukrainian airbases with Shahed drones...

 

[Ainen]

I agree with all the above, but again, which one is better at dispersed operations? You might base it on the roads, but for how long? The optimal solution would be to have both the Gripen and the Mirage, but none of that really matters if the base you fly your jets from is regularly hit.

It is, if you plan to fight tooth and nail, especially directly underneath opfor. And you preferably need not just dispersal for that, but also suitable natural/human environment. It's most suitable for Sweden, though may work in many places. Just with caveat that any civilian dispersal infrastructure comes with risks of humint; forests are overall probably best. It's the Swedish and former Soviet VVS way, for opposite reasons though.

Alternatively, if it's far enough from massed fires, yet well defended/fortified enough against less frequent intermediate range fires - this is also a way. It's a french way, since ever since 1945 France isn't really within range of "normal" suppression. It's also the way we see currently Ukraine and Russia operate. It's ideal since you can afford normal meintenance, but somewhat may be inconvenient shall insufficient range of aircraft(especially at lo) interfere, requiring risky and inconvenient intermediate stops.


Or, if you're very rich/have cheap labor(and, preferably, good mountains to work with), and actually expect war for a long time - you dig-dig and tank with your face; though not exactly with aircraft, we saw this approach recently with Iranian missile cities.

Baby version of that US want to try with well fortifying pacific outpots.

 

[BonPlan2]

Will France deliver Rafales to Ukraine? (answer tomorrow)

La France va-t-elle livrer des Rafale à l'Ukraine ?

Volodymyr Zelensky en visite à Paris le lundi 17 novembre (Actualisé)La France s'apprête-t-elle à fournir des Rafale à l'Ukraine ? Le sujet sera au menu de la visite du président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky ce lundi 17 novembre. Selon les éléments fournis par l'Elysée, où il sera reçu par...

www.secretdefensev2.com

I think Zelenski expect France to give it for free....

 

[BonPlan2]

Like indonesia, Serbia or the Indian Navy probably F4 (4.2/4.3) variants, no point in selling a downgraded version, and F5 won't be ready yet.
The last F3R are the Egyptian ones being delivered right now.

But the new F4 should be fully upgradable to F5 (and compatible with the UCAV)

Even the F3R can easily been upgrade to F5.
It is not the case of the earlier version (as first Egypt batch) : more expensive.

 

[BonPlan2]

3 rather simple adoptations here - really reinforced structure, huge "bulbed" 1850L tanks, tall yet strong chassis permitting sufficiient clearance for big payloads underneath. Despite its size and antiquated engine, it can operate from safer bases directly.

Mirage 2000 is really an examplary light fighter bomber, which is why there are two projects trying to get into its niche.

These external tanks are 2000 liters one.

 

[Deltafan]

The French news channel LCI has just announced that Ukrainian President Zelensky told it that Ukraine will "buy 100 Rafale".
At this stage it would be a letter of intent..

We have just seen the passage on French television where Zelensky has just made the statement to a French journalist.

According to the French news channel BFM TV :

The two leaders, more precisely, announced the signing of a letter of intent for the purchase by Kyiv of a maximum number of 100 Rafales, anti-aircraft defense systems and drones.

Thales : L'annonces des ventes de Rafale à l'Ukraine propulsent les actions Dassault Aviation et Thales

(BFM Bourse) - Les deux groupes de défense montent en Bourse alors les présidents Volodymyr Zelensky et Emmanuel Macron ont annoncé un accord prévoyant la …

www.tradingsat.com

On the Twitter account of French defense journalist Didier François:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1990368160445518258

View: https://x.com/frog_of_war/status/1990368160445518258?s=20

In the letter of intent which has just been signed at the Villacoublay air base, Ukraine orders 100 Rafale, 8 SAMP/T systems and 600 ASSM Hammer bombs from France over 3 years.

 

[Titus K]

Even the F3R can easily been upgrade to F5.
It is not the case of the earlier version (as first Egypt batch) : more expensive.

Could you provide a source for that claim?
This is the official announcement from the Ministry of the Armed Forces regarding the latest order of 42 F4 rafale C (delivery starting 2027)

Commande de 42 Rafale pour l’armée de l’Air et de l’Espace

La Direction générale de l’armement (DGA) a notifié aux sociétés Dassault Aviation, Thales, Safran et MBDA le contrat pour la 5e tranche de production du programme Rafale. Il comprend la production de 42 appareils, en version monoplace au standard F4, destinés à l’armée de l’Air et de l’Espace.

www.defense.gouv.fr

The aircraft in this 5th tranche of production will be brought to the F4 standard, whose development was launched in 2018 and whose first increment was qualified by the DGA in March 2023. This standard includes the integration of the Contact radio station, the MICA NG missile (new generation) and the Digital Autonomous Jammer (BAN) integrated into the SPECTRA self-protection system of the Rafale.

These fighter aircraft will also be designed to evolve to the F5 standard in the 2030s.

Now, if they specify that this particular order will be fully upgradeable to the F5 standard, it suggests to me that older rafales might, in fact, not be fully upgradeable to F5.

It’s possible that some F5 elements will be integrated into a 2008-2012 F3R airframe for example, but probably not the full upgrade.

 

[TomcatViP]

Without rejecting the significance of this announcement, I would suggest we leave the financial side of the deal (not even formally agreed - only a LoI) out of this thread until something firms up.