So what some could see from before Brexit, is now coming to fruit.

And while there's a lot of finger pointing, it's not going to help when we all have a full scale conventional war nearby in Ukraine. With potential for this to expand to involve others, NATO, European and EU members.
Time matters more.

Arguably Germany could better spend industrial resources on more immediate projects, but again we see 'international collaboration' which has a long history of getting bogged down and delayed delivery.

Germany may just take the easy road here to it's own industrial detriment and buy from either GCAP or if the US will allow F47.
But.....
Turkey and South Korea offer the only hope of real equality in making Germany a major transformational customer.
I can see South Korea offering licensed production and technology transfer.
While Turkey might be a political step too far.

I just don't see GCAP, with UK and Italian having long experience of dealing with Germany, being willing let them join. Only Japan might think it politic but time is pressing.
 
Perhaps this will be the opportunity the Indians have been waiting for. A way for them to get "into the business". Ties to Dassault already exist, in a way after all.
Don’t push it that far - it could turn out twice as troublesome as the FCAS seems to be shaping up.

The Indians would insist on developing and producing everything in-house, just like the French. But the French have a knack for making the Indians pay heavily for minimal production in return, so who knows?
 
  1. The UK is not going to join FCAS....its totally committed to GCAP. Why on earth would it leave a programme that is seemingly running well to enter a new arrangement...with 2 flaky partners (Germany and Spain) and abandon 2 firm partners (Japan and Italy). It's not even worthy of discussion....
  2. Germany and Spain are not going to join GCAP as main development partners....that door has closed as has major industrial participation.
  3. France does have other options...UAE and India are amongst them. Neither are as good as Germany and Spain...but they exist. I don't think a 'France alone' effort leads to anything as complex as SCAF...but that's another discussion...
  4. Sweden has its own needs...but has also been heavily dependent on the US and UK for components in its preceding fighter aircraft. They were never in GCAP or Tempest, but were in the wider UK-led FCAS effort (which often gets confused with Tempest, GCAP and SCAF). Does Sweden's requirements and Germany's/Spain's requirements coincide? On the surface no...
But....

BAE Systems have recently mentioned that they have also looked at the development of a smaller aircraft, alongside GCAP, utilising some of the components (likely single-engined using the GCAP engine for example). They believe there is a market out there for a 5th/6th, whatever, generation fighter that is cheaper and less complex than GCAP for nations who don't require that size aircraft....

If I was BAE I'd be calling Saab, Indra and Airbus Defence up.....and offering them co-operation on that effort...alongside BAE UK (and Leonardo UK)....at best it leads to another programme...at worst it throws a spanner in SCAF at an opportune time...all's fair in love and war (and business)....I'd also be asking them to join in on the CCA front...
 
If they leave then its likely that any work with GCAP member (or companies) would likely be as advisors which i doubt any of them would be against. That said from all the news that seems to change every other week its hard to paint a clear picture of the Situation thats happening up there except thats aint going where it needs too.
 
This seems like a very odd discussion.
If Dassault go it alone, they will produce the most advanced fighter possible using France's funds and technology, tailored exactly to France's needs and timeframes (barring political shenanigans). If they are partnered through FCAS, they will have access to significantly more funds and slightly more technology, to produce a jet less directly designed for France's needs but more advanced.
Surely where both of those points lie on the useless 4th-6th gen scale is not relevant to the job at hand, which is for France's air force to stay competitive with Russia and China?
It is , in the futur there will be surely some Air force in the world with Chinese fighters production, Rafale can't stay a competitive product in face of futur Chinese fighters, Rafale lack of stealth , range and powefull engine, you can't stay at the head of Air Force technology with a years 90 fighter design. And for the UCAV companion of Rafale Chinese have it now not in ten years like Dassault. This time it is the biggest mistake for futur European fighter industry to work on 2 projects , FCAS and Tempest.
 
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This time it is the biggest mistake for futur European fighter industry to work on 2 projects , FCAS and Tempest.
I wouldn't say it's a mistake, there are countries with very specific needs and these needs are hardly met by a single design. So having two camps was always the better solution and for GCAP that seems to work out well so far. In theory it would work out well for FCAS as well, disagreements are first and foremost rooted in work share and industrial participation, not in the capability or layout of the aircraft as far as we know. Surely there are preferences, but it's mostly about who gets to do what, how much of it, how much does it cost etc.

The biggest hurdle with regards to the aircraft and it's capabilities was the ability to operate from the French carrier. Something that was known upfront and everyone was seemingly okay with and still is. Surely, if Dassault were to be replaced with Saab, nobody would miss the carrier capabilities, but at least according to my memory it was never a major point of contention.
 
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But....

BAE Systems have recently mentioned that they have also looked at the development of a smaller aircraft, alongside GCAP, utilising some of the components (likely single-engined using the GCAP engine for example). They believe there is a market out there for a 5th/6th, whatever, generation fighter that is cheaper and less complex than GCAP for nations who don't require that size aircraft....
I somehow like the idea of Germany / Spain (+Sweden?) taking over the development / production of a single engine derivative of GCAP.
 
France does have other options...UAE and India are amongst them. Neither are as good as Germany and Spain...but they exist. I don't think a 'France alone' effort leads to anything as complex as SCAF...but that's another discussion...
Absolutely. Both are countries looking to get into the big aviation business. While they don't bring technological prowess to the table, they bring plenty of money with them, and that may play into the hands of Dassault which would undeniably be the industrial leader.

I also think Turkey and South Korea are wild cards for either side of the hypothetical FCAS split. They both have an advanced jet fighter in development, but surely they are already looking towards the future and possibly don't want to be mere customers of GCAP or F-47 (if exported). And thus this would be their opportunity to join a next generation effort with sizeable participation for their growing aviation industry. And Turkey it particular would probably be poised to contribute to the CCA portion of such a program, something their KAAN would also benefit from. While South Korea is also investing heavily into drone related technologies. Both also develop their own domestic ordnance, which could serve as a basis for the armament of a new aircraft and it's drones.

So while their names haven't been specifically mentioned (FCAS isn't dead and buried just yet), I think the possibility could exist in the future. KAI and TAI are not necessarily lesser than Saab.
 
KAI and TAI are not necessarily lesser than Saab.
I'd say they (S.Korea/Turkey) are at a level that is beyond Saab( Sweden), though we’re specifically talking about aircraft designers here.

Both countries not only develop munitions but also indigenous avionics and sensor systems (and soon, engines). I can't see them settling for anything less if they were to participate in a multinational program.

Instead, I envision them attempting to lead/co-lead their own projects, much like they are doing now; where the arrangement is 'you provide the funding, and I deliver the final product.'

However, Turkey tends to be more generous with Transfer of Technology, mostly to its own detriment.
 
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Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

The Eurofighter echoes are rattling loudly around the carcass of SCAF.

It's not just the French insistence on being design lead and having the sole say on everything, though that's replaying as an exact repeat of the Eurofighter consortium just before French exit, It's the German concern on getting the maximum financial return on their money. If Germany and Spain don't exit SCAF, then I would fully expect to see Germany playing fiscal hardball with demands that push the agreed envelope (cf the historical workshare renegotiations in Eurofighter) and late payment even for what was agreed. Admittedly Germany in the time of Eurofighter had had a huge and unexpected fiscal megaproject dumped on it in the form of Reunification, but Germany in the time of SCAF is facing a major bill to bring the Bundewehr up to fighting fitness.

The problem within SCAF is the Germans no longer see the French as trustworthy partners. But will anyone outside of SCAF be willing to consider the Germans as trustworthy partners?
 
I'd say they (S.Korea/Turkey) are at a level that is beyond Saab( Sweden), though we’re specifically talking about aircraft designers here.

Both countries not only develop munitions but also indigenous avionics and sensor systems (and soon, engines). I can't see them settling for anything less if they were to participate in a multinational program.
Saab/Volvo(gkn) does same things though, with caveat that it isn't plans, but systems.
They don't deisgn full jet engines (they redesigned them deeper than either though), but neither does Korea and Turkey...

I.e., at least for now, it's still more than either. In 10 years, maybe.
 
Reunification, but Germany in the time of SCAF is facing a major bill to bring the Bundewehr up to fighting fitness.
The problem with the Bundeswehr isn't how much taxpayer money is thrown at it, but the efficiency with which those funds are actually used. Amajor reform is urgently needed like yesterday.

This issue is crippling and prevalent across most of the large economies in the U.S.-led bloc. Money that should be directed toward welfare, investment, and climate initiatives is being increasingly funneled into inefficient defense procurement and corruption.

Frankly, Europe is more than capable of handling Russia, especially one that is drained by war. The main weakness where Europe actually needs to invest is in large-scale counter-drone defenses, whether that be SPAAGs, microwave weapons, cheap AA missiles or other solutions.
 
Saab/Volvo(gkn) does same things though, with caveat that it isn't plans, but systems.
I can't speak for Korea in great detail, but nearly all the sensors and datalinks and avionics for the Kaan are close to being ready for production (with the exception of the radar, which is still on a test-bed). Korea has already begun equipping LRIP Boramaes with their indigenous radar.

AFAICR, Korea plans to equip production KF-21s with their GE-414 equivalent in the late 2020s, with Turkey's own PW119/WS-15/AL-51 equivalent coming a bit later.

South Korea and Turkey both aim for full ITAR-free production (with ~80% freedom already achieved by both) while this is pretty much negligible for Sweden.

South Korea wants the KF-21 to be ITAR-free so they can export it, while Turkey wants to have an aircraft in the air to ensure they can actually defend themselves against enemy stealth platforms.
 
I can't speak for Korea in great detail, but nearly all the sensors and datalinks and avionics for the Kaan are close to being ready for production (with the exception of the radar, which is still on a test-bed). Korea has already begun equipping LRIP Boramaes with their indigenous radar.

AFAICR, Korea plans to equip production KF-21s with their GE-414 equivalent in the late 2020s, with Turkey's own PW119/WS-15/AL-51 equivalent coming a bit later.

South Korea and Turkey both aim for full ITAR-free production (with ~80% freedom already achieved by both) while this is pretty much negligible for Sweden.

South Korea wants the KF-21 to be ITAR-free so they can export it, while Turkey wants to have an aircraft in the air to ensure they can actually defend themselves against enemy stealth platforms.
It's all true, but SAAB fighters (AEW, weapons) are operational and widely available ... and while SAAB often uses foreign components, they design things when it suits them, too.
32380

I.e. Korea is now close to going full path of development for modern fighter aircraft(KF-21 is just around the corner), but not there yet.
Turkey, perhaps even more ahead in components, is still years and years away from deployment (as it now appears, presentations don't really impress Israel, and right now TAF is barely ahead of Egyptian AF).
Production hell is still ahead for both of these nations.

ITAR freedom will ultimately count when it will be achieved, not when it's planned. I.e. we shall return to this conversation in 10 years.
 
To what extent do you seriously consider the possibility that Germany will cooperate with Sweden instead of France?
 
To what extent do you seriously consider the possibility that Germany will cooperate with Sweden instead of France?
I think they will "reach an agreement" in the upcoming meeting, but IF the SCAF program falls through, the Germans will likely leverage their close relations with the Swedes and bring Spain along with them.

Since the Spaniards are already procuring the Hürjet AJT, they might consider the Kaan as a serious gap-filler candidate in this case - there’s already been noise in their defense media:

View: https://x.com/robeslo/status/1967119488194933163?t=UxEcahaC1KT1nuXXGshmvA&s=19


Off the top of my head, the SCAF IOC was planned for the ~2040s, and since they've decided against procuring the F-35, there could indeed be a significant gap for them.
 
Since the Spaniards are already procuring the Hürjet AJT, they might consider the Kaan as a serious gap-filler candidate in this case - there’s already been noise in their defense media:

If the Spanish believe the need is real they will 100% be going to F-35. Their MoD already wants it, has researched it...but the current variant of Spanish politics makes that impossible.....but Spanish politics also means the reverse will be true in a few years. F-35 also solves their Armada issue as well with the replacement of AV-8B.

Plus Kaan is some distance from being an operational aircraft....you never know the F-35 might be Block IV'd before its operational....(I'm not willing to bet on that though..).
 
If the Spanish believe the need is real they will 100% be going to F-35. Their MoD already wants it, has researched it...but the current variant of Spanish politics makes that impossible.....but Spanish politics also means the reverse will be true in a few years. F-35 also solves their Armada issue as well with the replacement of AV-8B.

Plus Kaan is some distance from being an operational aircraft....you never know the F-35 might be Block IV'd before its operational....(I'm not willing to bet on that though..).
I said might, I'm well aware a reversal of policy re. the F-35 is more likely; though it would probably take just as long to deliver due to production backlog and B4 development hell.

The fact that supply chain issues have slowed down the assembly of P1 & P2 has indeed delayed delivery by roughly a year, but the plan is still to follow a similarly intensive test campaign as that of the Boramae.

Certification of the internal bays won’t happen until the B20 delivery, which is scheduled for 2030. Existing aircraft by then are going to receive a software update to enable IWB use. So, with this in mind, you really think they can't certify the airframe, the sensors, etc. with 8 prototypes and get this plane ready for induction by Q4 2028/Q1 2029?

I have also observed how the Spanish approach a possible procurement of the Kaan, both by officials and defence media circles, and there is indeed interest and goodwill. Is it going to happen? Unlikely, but who knows at this point?
 
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This issue is crippling and prevalent across most of the large economies in the U.S.-led bloc. Money that should be directed toward welfare, investment, and climate initiatives is being increasingly funneled into inefficient defense procurement.
I'd love to see that money going into welfare and climate, but the reality is an aggressive Russia on NATO's front door - more border violations yesterday, which forces defence investment. The problem isn't a war weary Russia now, but a combat experienced Russia five years down the line, which needs investment now, not then.
 
If the Spanish believe the need is real they will 100% be going to F-35. Their MoD already wants it, has researched it...but the current variant of Spanish politics makes that impossible.....but Spanish politics also means the reverse will be true in a few years. F-35 also solves their Armada issue as well with the replacement of AV-8B.

Plus Kaan is some distance from being an operational aircraft....you never know the F-35 might be Block IV'd before its operational....(I'm not willing to bet on that though..).
The Spanish MoD has been cancelling large contracts all week.
Pods, ATGMs, MRLs. These are the ones I'm aware of.
I'm not sure an F-35 is realistic ATM.
 
I'd love to see that money going into welfare and climate, but the reality is an aggressive Russia on NATO's front door - more border violations yesterday, which forces defence investment. The problem isn't a war weary Russia now, but a combat experienced Russia five years down the line, which needs investment now, not then.
I'd argue the reality is that Europe is closer to collapsing from within than being threatened by any external factor, let alone a Russia which would have to go through Poland to get to the important European nations.

(This reality being the reason I doubt the need for a hyper advanced 6th generation fighter for Germany anyway, but that's besides the point and something I already laid out previously)
 
I'd love to see that money going into welfare and climate, but the reality is an aggressive Russia on NATO's front door - more border violations yesterday, which forces defence investment. The problem isn't a war weary Russia now, but a combat experienced Russia five years down the line, which needs investment now, not then.
It's a mutual contradiction, not unlike famous 1950s British reviews - "5 years down the line" should effectively destroy any procurement other than Eurofighter, Gripen and FA-50; maybe KF-21 and F-16Vs. Even additional F-35s and Rafales simply won't arrive in timeframe this short.
 
It's a mutual contradiction, not unlike famous 1950s British reviews - "5 years down the line" should effectively destroy any procurement other than Eurofighter, Gripen and FA-50; maybe KF-21 and F-16Vs. Even additional F-35s and Rafales simply won't arrive in timeframe this short.

Not really...what we have now, and on order, is sufficient to deter Russia now and in 5 years....but that deterrence needs to be maintained.

And with the US the way it is at the moment....
 
Not really...what we have now, and on order, is sufficient to deter Russia now and in 5 years....but that deterrence needs to be maintained.

And with the US the way it is at the moment....
Right now, NATO is hollowed out - lots of front-heavy forces, that offloaded much of their mobilization potential into Ukraine.
And precisely because US is the way it is - it's a major issue.

Esp. as Poland has recently shown how well even best-financed and most directly threatened military in Europe keeps track of actual military developments to the east.
The cruel irony is that not just European security is delegated onto US - even duty of responding to military developments is(re: APKWS).
 
I would warn that Germany has burned a lot of bridges across potential partners throughout western Europe and that includes Sweden.
I doubt the Swedes forgive or forget the matter of proprietary Swedish technology in submarines and German efforts to remove it from Sweden. SAAB is intimately tied into the marine side of Swedens MIC.as well as Aerospace.

The UK is Aerospace sector has many who remember German behaviour over Eurofighter. Essentially trashing the mutual respect built up during PANAVIA Tornado.

If Berlin and Paris cannot agree on FCAS. It will not encourage others to agree to German needs and wants. Level heads will not assume the French hold all the blame in that breakup.
 
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Yeah, I don't think its so much Germany looking to UK or Sweden for financing and orders, but to BAE/RR/SAAB as a technical partner to supplement Airbus and derisk them going it alone if Dassault wont back down on its demand of an 80% workshare on the fighter. For RR that's easy could go through MTU but in addition to Airbus UK providing some parts, BAE could provide integration consultancy advice as it did on the Turkish fighter program and another set of eyes checking the figures as could SAAB.
GCAP and FCAS dont have to be direct competitors as there is a bit of differentiation in their requirements. Britain/Japan/Italy want an long legged fighter/strike craft with a powerful targeting suite that will spend a lot of its time over the ocean. For Germany and Spain what you need is more of an interceptor with a secondary ground to air capability. Its kind of an F-15/F-16/F-18 situation.
THERE IS NO 80% WORKSHARE DASSAULT REQUEST ! it is full BS.
At best, the prototyp may use 80% of french parts because it's not possible to easy use Eurofighter ones because of intelectual property issues.

THE problem is that Germany ordered US F-35 without any ToT and ask France to give them full access to Dassault skills while they are poor on aero technology. It's unfair.
For France it is probably better to make alone a less ambitious plane than to collaborate in another EF2000 like awfull cooperation. The Rafale versus EF2000 case is clear.
 
So is the situation of FCAS : can Germany eject one partner ?

I don't think the reporting is suggesting that...they're suggesting Germany and Spain would do their own thing.

But we've been here before....in all likelihood this is Germany and Spain's riposte to Trappier's statements recently...reminding him that they too can play hardball...
 
So is the situation of FCAS : can Germany eject one partner ?
Spain isn't particularly thrilled either, so it's two (Spain and Germany) against one (France).

While in GCAP the proponents for growing the program by an additional member would be the minority, one may assume.
 
Gen David W. Allvin, speaking about the next UISAF next generation fighter:

There’s a lot of change going on right now. There’s a lot of change going on right now. And it’s perfectly natural to say, let’s catch your breath a bit. Let’s sort of take stock of things. But in this environment, with the consequences on the other side of it, we have to beware of the familiar. Be cautious about the warm blanket of the comfortable. Because you know what? That may not be good enough. That just may not be good enough because the adversary is not taking a knee. … When the President asks tonight, next week, next year, next decade, ‘Can you still do that?’ We have to be able to say, ‘Hell yes we can.’”

I thought it would be useful to remind all that, at the end, it´s all about keeping pace.
 
But we've been here before....in all likelihood this is Germany and Spain's riposte to Trappier's statements recently...reminding him that they too can play hardball...
I just see a german move. Spain wait and see.

France - Germany cooperation has a recent bad track record : Germany didn't respect the Qty of Tiger helo to order. Germany decided to order P8 Poseidon in the back of France. etc....
they have the money, we have the knowledge.
 
Yes, itself. Or Germany and Spain can go together if they both so wish. And depending on the way the project is set up, a two partner vote might be able to eject the third.
maybe.
If France is out, what's inside ? Money (for germany) and that's all. None of the 2 remaining has the knowledge to built a proper fighter.
 
maybe.
If France is out, what's inside ? Money (for germany) and that's all. None of the 2 remaining has the knowledge to built a proper fighter.
Its not like on can't hire people for that knowledge but guys instead of going in circles how about we wait and see. Because to be honest the last 3 sides reads mostly the same
 
maybe.
If France is out, what's inside ? Money (for germany) and that's all. None of the 2 remaining has the knowledge to built a proper fighter.
Sorry, but your post read like a typical french arrogance.
may i have to remind you that Rafale is more or less a 80s design ? Sure, the avionic and certain systems has been upgraded ever since, but at it's very core, its indeed a (nearly) half a century design by now. The guys mostly responsibled for it are definitely well past their 60s, probably well into their 70s, if not long gone already.
FCAS, if it's going to be some revolutionary design that can be considered a leap from the likes of f22,f35, j20,... would have to be more or less started from scratch.
So the engineers currently working at Dassault or Airbus, most of them likely werent even born, or in their early teens at best when they very first Rafale demonstrator took flight would be the ones to take the helm.
And i highly doubt you have enough informations to evaluate what sort of knowledges either Dassault or Airbus DS currently possess that's relevant for the future jet fighter anyway. Even if you are, certainly you cannot share here aside of these meaningless arguments.
In case you still want to go by achievement in the past, MBB collaborated on X-31 TVC, what had Dassault manage to do with regard to TVC for jet fighter ?
And TVC would more or less be a must have for any future jet fighter, same with Variable Cycle, what has Safran achieve in this particular topic, albeit the same can be said for MTU
 
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Trappier's words during the opening of an new factory in Cergy
On this occasion, Éric Trappier declared:

“This is the first time since the 1970s that Dassault Aviation has commissioned a new production facility. It is a positive signal for the aeronautics sector and for industry in general: France possesses rare skills that we must absolutely maintain and develop on the national territory. This is a matter of sovereignty, particularly crucial in the current period. It is also an economic and social matter, with the challenge of reindustrializing our country and creating jobs.”

And in the press

“We can do it all by ourselves from A to Z”: Dassault’s response to German pressure on the fighter jet of the future​

Following pressure from Airbus and Germany over the management of the FCAS project (Future Combat Air System), the European sixth-generation fighter jet, Dassault Aviation’s CEO Eric Trappier explained that his group was fully capable of carrying out this vital program for Europe and France on its own if necessary.

How will this end? While Airbus and Germany are discreetly threatening to launch the future European fighter jet project without France, Dassault’s response came quickly this Tuesday morning.

“I don’t mind if the Germans growl […]. If they want to do it alone, let them do it alone,” said Eric Trappier, the CEO of the Rafale manufacturer, on the sidelines of the inauguration ceremony of a new Dassault Aviation factory in Cergy, northwest of Paris.

“A combat aircraft, we know how to build here,” he continued. “We know how to do it from A to Z. We have been demonstrating this for more than 70 years. We have the expertise,” he added, without closing the door on collaboration: “We are completely open to cooperation, including with the Germans.”
 
Also Dassault attempts one more time to explain its position… not sure this will make much of a difference as German media and gov sources have been continuously distorting the substance of the argument.

Trappier said Dassault was arguing for clearer control of the core crewed fighter component of the project, while granting Airbus similar room for manoeuvre in the parts of the wider manned and unmanned system for which it has responsibility.
Trappier denied breaking any existing industrial accords and said the argument with Airbus solely concerned responsibilities for the next phase.
 
If France is out, what's inside ? Money (for germany) and that's all. None of the 2 remaining has the knowledge to built a proper fighter.
Germany has pretty much all of it. I can't actually think of anything they're lacking apart from practise, with Mako being the last German project I can think of. Bring in Sweden and the combination is definitely capable. And with France gone, there's nothing to stop them tapping into GCAP for various systems if needed. If permitted by the GCAP partners, of course, but that probably wouldn't be an issue due to the bigger return on investment and the advantages of a bigger installed user base.
 
"Trappier said Dassault was arguing for clearer control of the core crewed fighter component of the project, while granting Airbus similar room for manoeuvre in the parts of the wider manned and unmanned system for which it has responsibility."

I suspect Germany has no doubt France intends to walk away from the unmanned part of FCAS and buy Dassault's CCA instead. Dassault saying Germany can have all the unmanned bits while flaunting an all-French CCA at Paris is pretty much telling the entire world you think the Germans are gullible idiots.
 
may i have to remind you that Rafale is more or less a 80s design ?
[snip]
So the engineers currently working at Dassault or Airbus, most of them likely werent even born, or in their early teens at best when they very first Rafale demonstrator took flight would be the ones to take the helm.
I think you're exaggerating the situation. While there will undoubtedly be a horde of bright young things, there'll still be people my age, 60-ish, who joined the project in the late '80s, early '90s and took it through flight trials and into service. The original designers may be past retirement, but the people who worked with them first hand and dealt with all the problems you find when design meets reality, some of them will still be there, as will the institutional knowledge that comes from a continuing project team. That's probably somewhere Dassault has an advantage over Airbus at the aero design level, but I don't think that'll be true for France vs Germany at the systems level.
 

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