VTOL On Demand Mobility

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont...-aviation/Content?oid=32957639&media=AMP+HTML
This article on the Beta evtol gives a bit of background on the company. It looks like this aircraft will be ferrying organs and hauling freight before it carries passengers. I also wonder if the military might order a couple of airframes just to support the industry. They could be used to transport very small loads that don't justify the use of a larger helicopter.
 
- Organs transplant air cargo operations: rare occurrences, very urgent need, minimally constrained airframe in term of schedule and routing, absolute safe delivery of payload needed...
Probability for a novel design to take over the market= null... Probability that a light weight design might be able to fulfill the on-demand objectives=null (think weather, gust winds and intra-city navigation)... Probability that an AI piloted design reaches commercial operations (that mean doing some profits) while still being able to efficiently re-route with minimal constraint at any time and still ensure the absolute safe delivery of a critical payload= negative to zero...

There is a reason why Italian cops where given sport cars for that mission.

I don't know who put that business model forward but that's probably not the best investment opportunity you'll be given in the next 10 years.

Last but not least, imagine yourself on the operating table being stitched-up by the post operation team after having a kidney removed as a donor. Next thing you know, the surgeon re-enter the scene and announces that the delivery
drone had a collision with a building when the AI had its nav messed-up by the strong crosswind. The payload is lost. That's what you hear him say before the anesthesic gas is pump back on...
Last thing that reached you before the abysses:
We gonna have to repeat the process...
 
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To be optimistic, I suspect that this form of transportation will follow the same path as others. At first it will be doubted (few buggy whip makers drastically changed their line of work when the first automobiles sputtered around the dirt roads), then the affluent will accept it. Over time as the infrastructure is developed, more will gain access and the technology will be driven by the market. The charlatans will run with the money or from the police and those with legitimate capability will vie for the market/production.

Heck I had a Tesla recharge overnight at my house a couple weeks ago. Never thought I would see that in my lifetime; in the deep south of the US.
 
TomcatViP said:
- Organs transplant air cargo operations: rare occurrences, very urgent need, minimally constrained airframe in term of schedule and routing, absolute safe delivery of payload needed...
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And can they do it better than a courier on a powerful motorbike? The applicability is slightly higher in the States due to larger distances between population centres, but there's few projects can afford to just write-off the European market.
 
DWG said:
TomcatViP said:
Another horror:

View: https://youtu.be/5oiWtYLA-Go

https://newatlas.com/aircraft/aska-flying-car-street-legal-evtol/?amp=true
When will we have breathalyzers mandatory for drafting tables?
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Chances of this (or any other roadable air vehicle I've seen) being ruled street legal seem like slim to none considering modern pedestrian impact requirements etc. And it's worse still for eVTOLs which can't afford the weight for crumple zones etc.
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Street legal is kind of overrated. I'd think the ability to use existing parking infrastructure is a pretty important feature for widespread flexible utilization. This would be a concern after all the legal and safety problems gets worked out though, so is still pretty far in the future.

yasotay said:
To be optimistic, I suspect that this form of transportation will follow the same path as others. At first it will be doubted (few buggy whip makers drastically changed their line of work when the first automobiles sputtered around the dirt roads), then the affluent will accept it. Over time as the infrastructure is developed, more will gain access and the technology will be driven by the market.
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Alternatively, the regulatory regime just shuts this "frivolous and genocide" technology (clearly the solution to transport problems is more trainnnnns) down and it never reach scale for effective technological development while a set of social forces locks that status quo in place. Just look at the cost curve for General Aviation.

Who knew an air vehicle could be a speculative investment!
 
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VTOLicious said:
Omg, Lililum introduced a 7-seater... Those tiny fixed pitch fans are cute! ...Not sure if the variable nozzle will do the trick.

https://lilium.com/jet
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Found a pic that shows the fan units. 36 of them are installed on the aircraft.

Btw, the "jet" doesn't have any conventional control surfaces. It seems that they envisage to accomplish pitch and roll control in forward flight by adjusting the "fan flaps" accordingly.
That's especially interesting because they recently stated that the variable nozzles are mechanically linked to each wing's flap mechanism and aren't controlled separately.

In any case the engineers will have a lot of fun by tuning the flight control system over the ranges of speed and altitude the type certification is sought for.
 

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mboeller said:
https://newatlas.com/aircraft/ehang-vt-30-long-range-evtol/
looks ok, but a range of 300km is, from my point of view a little bit too much to be believable.
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https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/vtol-on-demand-mobility.28597/page-12#post-449971
Finally the outsize person carrying quadcopter dies.

It’s staggering that these guys built billion dollar companies based on an architecture that is so fundamentally flawed. A few of us, with a bit technical understanding, spotted this years ago and wouldn’t waste time on such a klug. But they’re the Billionaire’s and we’re not.

It’s a fine line between selling a dream and downright investor deception. A few who walked that line seem to have done very well.
 
Configuration studies have shown that for ultra-short ranges the multicopter might be okay. YMMV, but I'm talking 20-30 km give or take. Incidentally, this is why the configuration is still viable for intra-urban package delivery. Beyond that, having a wing makes the vehicle efficient enough that it pays for its weight. At longer ranges it's not even close.
 
A winged eVTOL can preform the same mission as a multicopter, but faster, using less power and do more cycles per recharge. So why would anyone buy a multicopter?

It’s a bit like comparing a unicycle to a bicycle. Nobody’s ever made a commercially successful company out of a unicycle that’s anywhere close to those in the bicycle world.
 
AeroFranz said:
Configuration studies have shown that for ultra-short ranges the multicopter might be okay. YMMV, but I'm talking 20-30 km give or take. Incidentally, this is why the configuration is still viable for intra-urban package delivery. Beyond that, having a wing makes the vehicle efficient enough that it pays for its weight. At longer ranges it's not even close.
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IMHO: the big problem with the low range is that you burn out the battery very fast with 10-20 cycles per day
 
Zoo Tycoon said:
A winged eVTOL can preform the same mission as a multicopter, but faster, using less power and do more cycles per recharge. So why would anyone buy a multicopter?

It’s a bit like comparing a unicycle to a bicycle. Nobody’s ever made a commercially successful company out of a unicycle that’s anywhere close to those in the bicycle world.
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The key here is range, in this case short. I'm not advocating for multicopters, but you can find technical papers from several independent sources that will confirm that at least from a vehicle point of view (forget about the larger operational considerations), on very short missions it pays to not lug a wing around, live with the lower resulting L/D, and make up for it by having a larger battery that you can afford because you saved weight on the wing.
The crossover point between winged and non-winged configurations varies depending on your battery specific energy and vehicle particulars, but it is generally agreed multirotors are not worth doing for the typical UAM mission, which is why just about all the companies in this space have winged configurations.
 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F49BuJsUH-w&list=LL&index=2&ab_channel=DeepLookDeepLookVerified


Joby has released a new video which examines their aircraft more closely. Definitely worth a look. We finally get to see the cockpit layout. I also wonder about the maintenance costs of servicing an aircraft with 6 separate engines. Also, if the grand plan is to have thousands of Evtol's in service, where will they find all the A&P mechanics and pilots ? Wasn't the industry facing a shortage of skilled workers before the pandemic hit ? By the time this aircraft enters service the industry will have largely recovered and will be facing the skilled worker problem once again.

Edit: They also have a detailed PDF presentation on their plan to certification. It is linked in the article below.

https://evtol.com/news/joby-shares-detailed-timelines-evtol-certification-commercialization/
 
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An interesting problem as the A&P will now have to be electricians as much as other training. Like before the pandemic, the military will be hard pressed to maintain aircraft maintainers past their obligations because there will be a lucrative civil market.
 
alberchico said:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F49BuJsUH-w&list=LL&index=2&ab_channel=DeepLookDeepLookVerified


Joby has released a new video which examines their aircraft more closely. Definitely worth a look. We finally get to see the cockpit layout. I also wonder about the maintenance costs of servicing an aircraft with 6 separate engines. Also, if the grand plan is to have thousands of Evtol's in service, where will they find all the A&P mechanics and pilots ? Wasn't the industry facing a shortage of skilled workers before the pandemic hit ? By the time this aircraft enters service the industry will have largely recovered and will be facing the skilled worker problem once again.

Edit: They also have a detailed PDF presentation on their plan to certification. It is linked in the article below.

https://evtol.com/news/joby-shares-detailed-timelines-evtol-certification-commercialization/
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Excellent video. If i were cynical i would say that the sound measurement was probably for the empty vehicle, with just one operator on board, so 800 lbs below takeoff gross...BUT, it's frankly very impressive no matter which way you look at it. They have demonstrated hover and transition with a configuration that is unlikely to have to be changed to a different production standard, which puts them ahead of just about anyone else. The only thing we don't know about is their actual range with the batteries they've got.
 
Notice that the seats are not fitted with single point belts (and none can be visible). Notice also that seating position is roughly perpendicular to the main axis of the vehicle, suggesting that transitions from Vertical to horizontal flight and back are done with the vehicle quasi-horizontal (no articulations are shown).

Lilium_Seat_a.jpg
(extracted from the above linked video at 00:27min)
 
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@VTOLicious :

Without any margins built into the seating position, straight is, as we know that now, flat straight.
That means that those poor little engines will have to take the full weight, the acceleration, the wind, the turbulences all by themselves under a shallow angle until there is a gain in speed sufficient enough for the wings to create lift.
As you can see below, Vtol today are built with 3 points harness that the rotor (angled) can pull/push the vehicle while the aircraft is tilted down.
Airliners gain altitude by pitching up, with the passengers resting in positively inclined seat.
Here, either Lilium target populations are mussles that can stick to any slippy surface by their seat or their in-cities Vtol aiports are quickly going to look like homeless encampments with all their passengers grounded by a few knots of wind...

H160 seats:
232508_800.jpg
 
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TomcatViP said:
@VTOLicious :

Without any margins built into the seating position, straight is, as we know that now, flat straight.
That means that those poor little engines will have to take the full weight, the acceleration, the wind, the turbulences all by themselves under a shallow angle until there is a gain in speed sufficient enough for the wings to create lift.
As you can see below, Vtol today are built with 3 points harness that the rotor (angled) can pull/push the vehicle while the aircraft is tilted down.
Airliners gain altitude by pitching up, with the passengers resting in positively inclined seat.
Here, either Lilium target populations are Belgium mussles that can stick to any slippy surface by their seat or their in-cities Vtol aiports are quickly going to look like homeless encampments with all their passengers grounded by a few knots of wind...

H160 seats:
232508_800.jpg
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Certification of an aircraft without seat belts won't happen. I think they simply didn't install them in the mock-up.
Lililum already showed partitial transitions from hover to slow forward flight and back to hover with its five-seater prototype. Check out their videos.
 
https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/11/22529534/archer-maker-air-taxi-evtol-reveal-specs
the company showed off the 12-rotor aircraft, which it is calling Maker. Clocking in at 1,508kg (3,324lbs),.... It will have a range of 60 miles thanks to a 75kWh battery, and a top speed of 150mph. The entire wingspan is 40 feet. And when cruising 2,000 feet in the air, Archer says that the aircraft will be “100X quieter than a helicopter, generating only 45 decibels of sound”

Archer did not demonstrate Maker’s flight capabilities, though, nor did it say when it anticipated receiving certification for test flights. The company has said it expects to eventually build a five-seater aircraft to serve as the main vehicle in its eventual commercial operation, which it plans to launch in 2024.
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TomcatViP said:
Notice that the seats are not fitted with single point belts (and none can be visible). Notice also that seating position is roughly perpendicular to the main axis of the vehicle, suggesting that transitions from Vertical to horizontal flight and back are done with the vehicle quasi-horizontal (no articulations are shown).

View attachment 659173
(extracted from the above linked video at 00:27min)
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The seat backs are also so narrow there may be issues with flailing arms even with seatbelts.

And that luggage area is small for seven people, especially if they're en route to or being picked up from the airport (personally it looks like my wheelchair would take up the entire available space, leaving everyone else nursing their suitcases).
 
EVOTL sure seems to be attracting a lot of chancers. Thinking of the fate of Aerion and Lilium's latest PR, it seems sure sign of trouble are distraction tactics like saying 'but wait, my next idea is even more awesome' to potential investors before they have flying hardware. Demonstrating incremental - however small - but tangible progress should indicate a worthy investment. Lilium has battery problems, so they trumpet bigger designs without demonstrating a solution to the battery problem. If I actually had money to spend on them, I'd keep it.

Everyone wants to be the next Elon Musk forgetting that a lot of Falcons exploded before he started on Starship and now a lot of Starships are exploding - because he's actually building them and testing them.*

Here's a simplified Technology Readiness Scale:

1. Shout 'Eureka!' in the bath
2. Get out of the bath
3. Build something as simple as possible that works (repeat as often as necessary - but only as often as necessary)
4. Make it reliable and economical in a distinct commercial or functional niche
5. Then make it better and broaden its applications

Levels 2 and 3 are critical. What people forget about Musk - apart from the fact that he nearly went bust several times - is that his technology is not in itself fundamentally revolutionary. He started SpaceX at a time when a lot of people thought spaceplanes were the way to go, but Starship is deliberately crude in principle without deadweight wings and wheels (and Orion/SLS may as well have been built by Vogons).

Reaction Engines also seems to be taking an intelligent approach that is paying off in terms of attracting investment in what is more revolutionary: solving technical problems and demonstrating useful components. Their precooler is essential to their spaceplane concept, but is also useful by itself elsewhere and that's what AFL, DARPA, BAE, Rolls Royce and Project Tempest are interested in.

There's a story told about the head of a shipping line that has just launched the biggest and fastest liner for the transatlantic route who, when asked if he'd been trying to achieve a record, replied 'No, I ordered the slowest and smallest ship that would still be competitive'.

*I'd add too that blowing up rockets helps his strategy - first, it's rather difficult to hide an exploding rocket, but mainly because he keeps churning them out and announcing that they're likely to explode, so expectations are managed and people base their judgments on the programme itself, not the individual test.
 
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VTOLicious said:
alberchico said:
https://evtol.com/news/volocopter-unveils-voloconnect-longer-range-evtol-air-taxi/
I like that they are finally starting work on a successor to their current model.
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Nice to see something new from Volo... However, I doubt that's is the best solution in regards of lift+cruise configurations.
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Just had a second look... Such a huge vehicle but only four seats / three passengers!? Imho something is very wrong with that concept.
https://www.volocopter.com/solutions/voloconnect/
 

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It's also unnecessarily complicated to build and fly (forward sweep, really?!)...
 

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