Current Nuclear Weapons Development

bobbymike said:
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/20...sile-subs-are-vulnerable-it-isnt-true/170677/
The issue is we can’t predict technological change to the point relying solely on the SSBN force for deterrence is prudent in the coming decades.
Click to expand...
And none of the Cold War-era analysis regarded ICBM delivery of RVs for ocean bombardment as "a costly engineering challenge.”

The article he cites was about RV delivery in a retaliatory attack on a sub that had launched a LY warhead where the sub
has crash dived and sped away after launch.

The survivability was staked on the high probability of location uncertainty combined with a large number of SSBNs at sea and a large
number of tubes each such that even the loss of several boats still meant the adversary was still faced with a very large second strike
capability.
 
marauder2048 said:
bobbymike said:
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/20...sile-subs-are-vulnerable-it-isnt-true/170677/
The issue is we can’t predict technological change to the point relying solely on the SSBN force for deterrence is prudent in the coming decades.
Click to expand...
And none of the Cold War-era analysis regarded ICBM delivery of RVs for ocean bombardment as "a costly engineering challenge.”

The article he cites was about RV delivery in a retaliatory attack on a sub that had launched a LY warhead where the sub
has crash dived and sped away after launch.

The survivability was staked on the high probability of location uncertainty combined with a large number of SSBNs at sea and a large
number of tubes each such that even the loss of several boats still meant the adversary was still faced with a very large second strike
capability.
Click to expand...

How effective would RVs be against submerged targets? I would have thought the air/water boundary pretty resilient to transmitting energy and that an RV wouldn't survive any attempt to break the surface. I was under the impression even submerged warhead detonations were much more quickly attenuated by water than in air.
 
Iran seems to be trying very hard to get the Donald to blast them before the end of his term.
They might just succeed...
 
Russia reducing its arsenal to the same level would clearly be a prerequisite that won't happen.
 
Could somebody please direct me to articles with these Arms Controllers telling us how Russia and China should reduce their weapons count? Surely they exist?
 
Блинкен заявил, что США при администрации Байдена будут стремиться к продлению ДСНВ - Международная панорама - ТАСС (tass.ru)

Joseph Biden's administration intends to seek an extension of the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Weapons (DSNV, unofficially called START-3). This was stated on Tuesday at a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Anthony Blinken, nominated by U.S. President-elect Joseph Biden for the post of U.S. Secretary of State.

"I think we will seek an extension of the contract," he said. - We will deal with this issue almost immediately after Joseph Biden takes office, as the treaty expires in about 16 days. I can assure you that we will begin to discuss this issue very quickly and I can only say that at the moment we will seek an extension of the treaty."

Asked to give assurances that the U.S. would not agree to any restrictions on the missile defense system during negotiations with Russia on arms control, Blinken said, "It's hard to imagine the circumstances under which we would do so."

Blinken declined to specify for how long Biden would like to extend the DNC. He, in fact, argued that the issue had not yet been resolved by the leadership of the next American administration. "In our judgment, it is certainly in the national interest of the United States to extend START-3. But since we want to ensure respect for the principle that there is only one president in the United States at any particular moment, we will deal with this issue when the president-elect becomes president tomorrow," he said.

"He has to make a decision as president as to how long we will seek an extension," Blinken said of Biden.

"Our intention will be to immediately contact this committee and other committees of the Senate of Congress to consult on our plans to move forward. I can tell you right now: we will seek an extension, the president-elect must make a decision on the deadline," the candidate for the post of US Secretary of State said.

"Based on what I have seen, based on what the outgoing U.S. administration of (President Donald) Trump regarding the New DSNW, Russia is fulfilling its obligations. And the New DSNV is not some gift that we give to the Russians. It is frankly in our "American" interests, as it provides us with a predictable ceiling for the "core" of the Russian nuclear arsenal, and also provides us with huge access to data, authorizes inspections, which we would otherwise not have," Blinken said.

On the contract​

Russia and the United States signed the DSNV in 2010. Under its terms, each side reduces its START so that seven years after the document came into force and in the future, their total quantities do not exceed 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SBRLs) and heavy bombers (TB), 1,550 warheads on them, 800 deployed and undistionable ICBM launchers, IBR and BDB. The contract remains in force until February 5, 2021, unless replaced by a subsequent agreement. It can be extended for no more than five years by mutual consent of the parties.

Moscow has repeatedly urged Washington not to delay the extension of the document and characterizes it as the gold standard in the field of disarmament. Biden campaigned for an extension of START THREE. However, neither he nor his entourage explained whether the new U.S. president was willing to agree to a five-year extension of the treaty, or whether he was pushing for a short-term option lasting a year or so.

Biden's inauguration will take place Wednesday on the steps of the Capitol in Washington at noon local time (20:00 GMT).
 

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