What if the Sino-Soviet split did not occur

helmutkohl

helmutkohl

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What if the Sino-Soviet split did not occur?

Basically there were ideological differences between Mao and Khruschev, which led to the split.
Lets say in this scenario, both sides were a bit more flexible about the interpretation of Communism and agreed
to some how respect each others interpretation.

I guess two areas we can look at is

Strategic
- How would it affect other communist client states such as Vietnam, Cuba, North Korea, Yugoslavia, Albania, etc in the long term?
- Which conflicts would have been avoided had they not split? would another new conflict arise elsewhere?
- How would it affect relations with the "West"?

Equipment
- how would it affect the development of Chinese weapons, since they may continue to have access to Soviet technologies?
 
helmutkohl said:
What if the Sino-Soviet split did not occur?

Basically there were ideological differences between Mao and Khruschev, which led to the split.
Lets say in this scenario, both sides were a bit more flexible about the interpretation of Communism and agreed
to some how respect each others interpretation.

I guess two areas we can look at is

Strategic
- How would it affect other communist client states such as Vietnam, Cuba, North Korea, Yugoslavia, Albania, etc in the long term?
- Which conflicts would have been avoided had they not split? would another new conflict arise elsewhere?
- How would it affect relations with the "West"?

Equipment
- how would it affect the development of Chinese weapons, since they may continue to have access to Soviet technologies?
Click to expand...
I believe that there has never been a Split, they need each other and no communist leader wants to end his days like Ceausescu or Khadafi
 
To ascribe the Sino-Soviet split to “ideological differences” (though there was some) is to fundamentally miss understand the nature of the individual and regimes involved, and why the split occurred.
Mao was never ever going to play 2nd fiddle to Russian Soviet leaders for long and was relentlessly focused on great power status and utterly ruthless and without compunction or mercy in his pursuit of it.
And the USSRs and China’s interests were often in direct opposition (they had actual border clashes)
 
kaiserd said:
To ascribe the Sino-Soviet split to “ideological differences” (though there was some) is to fundamentally miss understand the nature of the individual and regimes involved, and why the split occurred.
Mao was never ever going to play 2nd fiddle to Russian Soviet leaders for long and was relentlessly focused on great power status and utterly ruthless and without compunction or mercy in his pursuit of it.
And the USSRs and China’s interests were often in direct opposition (they had actual border clashes)
Click to expand...
To think these two nearly went nuclear in 1969...
 
GTX said:
PLAAF MiG-23s and MiG-25s might result...
Click to expand...
The horror…

I’d imagine Japan’s capabilities would need to be beefed up and potentially armed with offensive weapons as well.
China would benefit hugely from continued industrial cooperation with the Soviets. Nuclear reactors could be coming online by the late 60s rather than the 90s. The whole pig iron production in your backyard could hopefully be avoided.
 
Maybe even:

(edited)_Tu-22M-3-IN-PLAAF.png
 
GTX said:
PLAAF MiG-23s and MiG-25s might result...
Click to expand...
MiG-25s, yes, but I'm not sure the Chinese will go for the MiG-23. With the J-7 under their belt and not long-delayed due to the lack of technical assistance, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to go indigenous and the J-13 project is pushed through, likely with a Soviet engine.
 
As Kaiserd explains, Mao's drive to make China a great power made a clash with Moscow inevitable.
However, if China had had a less forceful leader, perhaps one more focussed on Kim style family agrandissment, the break with the Soviet Union might have been avoided.
Moscow would have found it easier to offer inducements to Beijing.
That said, I doubt China would have got much more in Soviet military kit than Poland or N Korea.
So, the PLAAF would have received Mig 23, 25 and 27 in the 70s followed by Mig 29. Su 25 and Tu22 in smaller quantities. Not sure about Su24 and 27 or Tu26. Possibly by the 90s.
The PLA would have got T72s in the 80s plus BMPs SP artillery.
The PLAN might have got Kashin class destroyers like India. Submarines, Kilos and possibly an SSN in the 90s.
The Soviet Union would have done its best to deny China more than civilian nuclear assistance.
Much would have depended on the US/Soviet relationship. With a less significant China, Nixon would have focussed on detente with Breshnev.
This in turn might have had consequences in ending Vietnam sooner and in Egypt and Syria not getting so much Soviet help, so no 1973 war.
China might still have been a dubious ally. Ceaucescu and Kim showed that dynastic rulers could be volatile. Beijing might have resisted Detente.
More interesting is what might have happened if Lin Pao and Madam Mao had seized power in the late 60s or early 70s. Would they have turned to Moscow for support. Lin was fleeing to Russia when his Trident crashed (shot down?).
 

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