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Alt Vietnam

helmutkohl

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In this scenario

the Vietnam War follows the same path as the Korean war, and after years of intense fighting
the two sides agree to a long term cease fire (but no peace deal, like the Koreas). splitting the two countries along the 17th parallel

How would this change
- the aircraft composition of the two Vietnamese air forces as they go into the 80s, 90s, etc
- takes into account perhaps changes in Sino-Vietnamese relations (likely no Cambodia war)
- differences in economic development?
- more military spending on both sides, since they will try to keep parity with each other?

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uk 75

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Leaving aside the political background which has been covered in other threads we can make some assumptions about kit from what North Vietnam did in real life.
The South would probably receive F16s like other US allies (I know F20 fans will want their bird instead). UH60 Blackhawks would have replaced some of the Hueys. Gunships would probably have remained variants of the Cobra rather than Apaches.
Army and Navy kit is somewhat harder.
More M48s and M113s plus artillery. Not sure if anything more advanced would arrive till the 90s.
Naval kit would not have been much different. Some Asheville PGs and a frigate design of some kind. Perhaps like the ones Saudi bought based on the PHM hydrofoils but with conventional hulls.
 

kaiserd

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There was no realistic historical scenario in which this would have occurred. The 2 Vietnams were very different from the 2 Koreas and it was a very different war.
(Small example - Korean DMZ around 250km long; South Vietnam’s land border was more than 1.700km long.)
South Vietnam’s economic and military collapse was probably inevitable and North Vietnam would not have stopped it’s military campaign until it won.
Short of some truly horrific scenario that removes North Vietnam and its people from the picture (war crime level stuff - campaign of essentially genocidal US nuclear attacks?) South Vietnam is probably never a defendable, sustainable or viable entity. And such extreme scenarios that see South Vietnam survive long term change the regional set-up, and indeed the entire wider world, to such extents that what airforce equipment emerges from what’s left of Vietnam is both almost impossible to predict and all rather moot.
 

helmutkohl

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There was no realistic historical scenario in which this would have occurred. The 2 Vietnams were very different from the 2 Koreas and it was a very different war.
(Small example - Korean DMZ around 250km long; South Vietnam’s land border was more than 1.700km long.)
South Vietnam’s economic and military collapse was probably inevitable and North Vietnam would not have stopped it’s military campaign until it won.
Short of some truly horrific scenario that removes North Vietnam and its people from the picture (war crime level stuff - campaign of essentially genocidal US nuclear attacks?) South Vietnam is probably never a defendable, sustainable or viable entity. And such extreme scenarios that see South Vietnam survive long term change the regional set-up, and indeed the entire wider world, to such extents that what airforce equipment emerges from what’s left of Vietnam is both almost impossible to predict and all rather moot.
why are you including South Vietnam's entire land border and not looking at its border with north Vietnam which is a lot slimmer?
unless you think North Vietnam plans to invade through Cambodia?
 

uk 75

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President Hubert Humphrey's resounding second election victory in 1972 against Nelson Rockefeller came against the background of continued bombing of North Vietnam.
The stalled Paris peace talks in 1971 had seen the US complete its programme of Vietnamization and the withdrawal of its ground forces.
Humphrey's speech at Hawai had commited the US to "do what it takes" to defend South Vietnam. The Republican controlled Congress granted record annual amounts for weapons and ammunition supplies to the ARVN.
By 1975 the near continuous bombing of military targets in North Vietnam and Cambodia by USAF and USN aircraft had brought the North back to the peace table in Paris. The military government of Big Minh in Saigon felt secure enough with US backing to agree to a ceasefire along the DMZ provided US airpower was guaranteed.
In 1980 after five years of uneasy peace between North and South, the Vietcong continued its armed struggle but without the help of Northern conventional forces, the VC had lost much support.
 

Archibald

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Diem was a rotten human being (noquestion about this) but he barely hold South Vietnam together. Not liquidating him may help... a little.
 

uk 75

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Finding the right strongman in Saigon was undoubtedly a problem for the US. As Kaiserd points out S Vietnam was no S Korea. I used Big Minh as shorthand for someone better than Thieu or Ky.
Kaiserd's objections are all justified but S Vietnam could have survived without Nixon and Kissinger.
 

kaiserd

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There was no realistic historical scenario in which this would have occurred. The 2 Vietnams were very different from the 2 Koreas and it was a very different war.
(Small example - Korean DMZ around 250km long; South Vietnam’s land border was more than 1.700km long.)
South Vietnam’s economic and military collapse was probably inevitable and North Vietnam would not have stopped it’s military campaign until it won.
Short of some truly horrific scenario that removes North Vietnam and its people from the picture (war crime level stuff - campaign of essentially genocidal US nuclear attacks?) South Vietnam is probably never a defendable, sustainable or viable entity. And such extreme scenarios that see South Vietnam survive long term change the regional set-up, and indeed the entire wider world, to such extents that what airforce equipment emerges from what’s left of Vietnam is both almost impossible to predict and all rather moot.
why are you including South Vietnam's entire land border and not looking at its border with north Vietnam which is a lot slimmer?
unless you think North Vietnam plans to invade through Cambodia?
I would suggest you read up on the conflict to better understand the critical role violations of neighbours borders (especially but not limited to Cambodia’s - Ho Chi Minh Trail, etc,) by the various parties in the conflict played in that conflict. Especially given you started this thread in the first place.....
 
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