What If, Japanese Post-War Military Exports

[Hood]

I don't usually post what-if scenarios but we've had a few what-ifs for smaller nations like Italy etc.

So I was thinking the other day, what if Japan had been able to constitutionally export weapons in the post-war period?
General Hackett in his The Third World War has Japan by the 1970s exporting cheap weapon systems such as ATGWs to nations like Kenya.
I wonder whether we might have seen a boom equalling that of the Japanese boom in shipbuilding, computing goods and cars during the 70s and 80s?
And if so, what weapons were likely to sell big and how might that affect what the Japanese produced having to design for both export as well as domestic requirements.

Smaller ATGWs and perhaps APCs and armoured cars seem obvious areas they might have made sales - especially since other nations like Brazil and Switzerland made numerous sales in the wheeled AFV market.
Licenced-built US aircraft perhaps less marketable without Washington's approval, but it might have stimulated sales of training/COIN aircraft, maybe even the C-1 as a C-130 competitor for the 1970s?
Japanese-designed warships always looked good too, well armed and multi-role, they might have picked up some Asian sales perhaps even in the Middle East.

 

[Archibald]

As for combat aircraft... the usual path, even if for Japan it was rather complicated.
Subsonic trainer
Armed subsonic trainer
Supersonic trainer
Light combat aircraft

Had the Jaguar been a a more agile, not underpowered aircraft, the T-2 and F-1 might have been slightly better.

-------

And now, for something entirely different...

Somewhat astonishingly, in March 1971 of the 8 big Kereitsu - Ataka - contacted the US state department with an offer to takeover the SST project from Boeing.
They wanted to build Boeing 2707-300s ! This wasn't taken seriously and went nowhere.

In the days when Flight International archive was available for free (sigh) I looked for Ataka and found the following
- They had a deal with the British to sold Beagle aircraft
- They made a deal with Dassault to sell Falcon 20s on the Japanese market
- They were partners with Grumman in their Tomcat bid to the JASDF

So Ataka seemingly had strong aerospace ambitions.

Ataka & Co. - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Except they stretched too thin, made bad investments and went under in the same decade.

 

[starviking]

I don't usually post what-if scenarios but we've had a few what-ifs for smaller nations like Italy etc.

So I was thinking the other day, what if Japan had been able to constitutionally export weapons in the post-war period?

Hard to see how it could be done, without changing the post-war political system and the Japanese foreign policy that goes with it - and that would need big changes in the geopolitical system in East Asia at least. An ongoing Korean War? A Warsaw Pact for Asia? Maybe those could achieve the aim. As it was, even the Kawasaki C-1 was deliberately hobbled with a short range so it could not easily be deployed outside of Japan.

 

[uk 75]

The change that might have altered Japan's position and made it more like West Germany is indeed Korea.
If South Korea had met the same fate as Vietnam in 1975, reunified by the North, Japan would have been very much in the front line as Germany was.
With US forces not just confined to Okinawa and possibly even stationed on Formosa as Taiwan was then refered to, Japan is emboldened to change its constitution.
With suitable selfdeprecation, the enlarged and more capable forces retain the title Japan Defence Force rather than Imperial Armed Forces.

 

[riggerrob]

Dear Starviking,
Extending C-1's range is simple. Just trade cargo for fuel. It is relatively easy to strap extra fuel tanks inside the cargo compartment or hang external tanks under the wings (C-130).

 

[riggerrob]

Dear uk75,
During the Korean War, Japanese factories overhauled US Army Sherman tanks. I have seen Sherman pistons stamped with Japanese characters. From there, the Japanese could start manufacturing tank parts, etc.
Even if the Japanese constitution prevents them from sending soldiers overseas, they could still function as a "factory for democracy" by supplying arms to neighboring democratic countries: Taiwan, Malaya, Singapore, etc.

 

[Foo Fighter]

Something I believe might have made sense would be an alliance, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan which would have made any one of the triad stronger against military incursion. How realistic that is I am not sure.

 

[_Del_]

You might be underestimating the historic enmity between those nations...

 

[Hood]

I agree politically its a minefield, the way things were set up. But there might have been scope for sales to other non-aligned nations. Certainly Japan had the capabilities and the industrial contacts. If you decouple the foreign policy and reassure the politicians the zaibatsu haven't come back then I see no major obstacles to

I agree Asian defence co-operation is more difficult given poor relations, but I was thinking more of world sales than a specific SEATO-type exercise.

 

[Dilandu]

Something I believe might have made sense would be an alliance, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan which would have made any one of the triad stronger against military incursion. How realistic that is I am not sure.

Problem is, that if there is one thing North and South Korea could wholeheartedly agree, is "we don't like Japan".

 

[starviking]

Dear Starviking,
Extending C-1's range is simple. Just trade cargo for fuel. It is relatively easy to strap extra fuel tanks inside the cargo compartment or hang external tanks under the wings (C-130).

External tanks need designing, testing, and are not the ideal solution for greater range.

Internal tanks will just take up cargo space, and will have to be placed in such a way that the centre of gravity is not affected. Accomodating that and cargo is going to be a nightmare. Additionally, the C-1 doesn't have that much cargo capability anyway, much less than a C130.

 

[uk 75]

Something I believe might have made sense would be an alliance, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan which would have made any one of the triad stronger against military incursion. How realistic that is I am not sure.

Problem is, that if there is one thing North and South Korea could wholeheartedly agree, is "we don't like Japan".

That is why I chose the alt-Korean war outcome as a way of increasing Japan's importance as a Western outpost in the Pacific. I am sure Taiwan in such circumstances would take the same attitude as France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands and UK did eventually to West German rearmament.

 

[lordroel]

I don't usually post what-if scenarios but we've had a few what-ifs for smaller nations like Italy etc.

So I was thinking the other day, what if Japan had been able to constitutionally export weapons in the post-war period?
General Hackett in his The Third World War has Japan by the 1970s exporting cheap weapon systems such as ATGWs to nations like Kenya.
I wonder whether we might have seen a boom equalling that of the Japanese boom in shipbuilding, computing goods and cars during the 70s and 80s?
And if so, what weapons were likely to sell big and how might that affect what the Japanese produced having to design for both export as well as domestic requirements.

Smaller ATGWs and perhaps APCs and armoured cars seem obvious areas they might have made sales - especially since other nations like Brazil and Switzerland made numerous sales in the wheeled AFV market.
Licenced-built US aircraft perhaps less marketable without Washington's approval, but it might have stimulated sales of training/COIN aircraft, maybe even the C-1 as a C-130 competitor for the 1970s?
Japanese-designed warships always looked good too, well armed and multi-role, they might have picked up some Asian sales perhaps even in the Middle East.

The Mitsubishi T-2 could be a cheap fighter for some countries who want something else besides American, French and soviet planes.

 

[Madoc]

How about changing the Korean situation first?

That, instead of stopping at about halfway down the peninsula, the Red Army continued south until they'd liberated the whole of it. And then they refused to leave what they'd just took. Now there'd be no "buffer" between Japan and the Communists. Throw in the desperate need for the Japanese to get their economy back up and running and you've got a lot more impetus for heavy industry and military production.

The US would have to use the Japanese islands as the nearest base to anchor America's forces in the face of the Soviet Union and China's menace. The need for local repair ability would be a considerable driver. And the much faster escalation of "East / West" tensions would spur the rebuilding of Japan faster as well.

 

[helmutkohl]

Why limit to just East-Asia for potential exports.
Korea is highly unlikely

but Southeast Asia, assuming some export regulations were relaxed and the US allowed for it, could have been possible as part of a reparation plan.
as well as maybe Australia? or Europe? LatAm?

the question is..what would they want?
T-4 trainers? US-1 amphibious aircraft? F-1/T-2 combat aircraft?
Type 61/74/90 tanks?
i lean towards naval technologies being more likely