What if Iran never had a revolution?

[bobtdwarf]

The economy was still going to bite him in the butt, and the stagflation has little to do with oil prices.

The economy wasn't as bad as people like to say.. the interest rates were horrible to handle the inflation from Nixon going on a printing spree (and that getting jacked with a couple of oil shocks made it much worse): Real GDP, growth after inflation is taken out, was about the same as Reagan. Carter' unadjusted GDP was around 10% or better per year, which adjusted to roughly 3% (inflation was 13.5% in 80).

I spent the last of my teens and a most of my 20's living with inflation hovering around 4-5% and unemployment at over 5% with Reagan averaging an adjusted GDP of 3.5%.

No Iran going nuts Americans are not under enough stress to roll the dice on "voodoo economics" (Bush coined that phrase in the primary); Carter should win pretty easily without Iran going loony tunes.

 

[Nick Sumner]

An interesting book on how it all fell apart in Iran is 'Mission to Tehran' by Robert Huyser.

 

[gathpxx]

What the Iranian air force seems to have planned, in reality, is:

• 80, perhaps more, F-14s - I've been searching for contemporary evidence for the additional aircraft
• 460 F-16s, of which 300 would be new capability and 160 would be F-5 replacements
• 250 of something to replace the Phantoms

That 'something' might have been F-15s, F-16s, or F-18s, and I suspect that by the mid-1980s it would have been looking increasingly improbable that they'd actually be ordered.

Something like this was initially considered: 53 F-15s for four squadrons and 30 F-14s for three squadrons. It was decided that going all F-14 was a better plan.

What the Iranian air force seems to have planned, in reality, is:

• 80, perhaps more, F-14s - I've been searching for contemporary evidence for the additional aircraft
• 460 F-16s, of which 300 would be new capability and 160 would be F-5 replacements
• 250 of something to replace the Phantoms

That 'something' might have been F-15s, F-16s, or F-18s, and I suspect that by the mid-1980s it would have been looking increasingly improbable that they'd actually be ordered.

Something like this was initially considered: 53 F-15s for four squadrons and 30 F-14s for three squadrons. It was decided that going all F-14 was a better plan.

And don't forget Imperial take F 15

 

[Scott Kenny]

What the Iranian air force seems to have planned, in reality, is:

• 80, perhaps more, F-14s - I've been searching for contemporary evidence for the additional aircraft
• 460 F-16s, of which 300 would be new capability and 160 would be F-5 replacements
• 250 of something to replace the Phantoms

That 'something' might have been F-15s, F-16s, or F-18s, and I suspect that by the mid-1980s it would have been looking increasingly improbable that they'd actually be ordered.

I'd lean towards either F-18s or F-16s to replace the Phantoms. I don't think that Iran could have afforded an additional 250 Tomcats/Bombcats, no matter how much they wanted them. But I could see another 80-120 Tomcats.

And I'm really torn between Hornets and Vipers to replace Phantoms. My initial reaction is Hornets, but logistics strongly suggests Vipers.

 

[njiiaf]

I'd lean towards either F-18s or F-16s to replace the Phantoms. I don't think that Iran could have afforded an additional 250 Tomcats/Bombcats, no matter how much they wanted them. But I could see another 80-120 Tomcats.

And I'm really torn between Hornets and Vipers to replace Phantoms. My initial reaction is Hornets, but logistics strongly suggests Vipers.

The only concrete plan was 80 additional F-14s + 300 F16s to replace F-5s. Half of the F-14s would be under the control of the newly established Tactical Air Command (TAC) the other half would go to the Strategic Air Defense Command (SADC) along with a possible buy of 40 F-15s. TAC was unfortunately dissolved after '79 and they never got around to creating SADC to begin with.

The F-18 was the only real option for an F-4 replacement in terms of capability as the F-16A was WVR only and had limited payload. But the Carter admin was dragging its feet in approving the export. Though its also important to note the IIAF was growing at an extremely rapid pace in the '70s. This growth was naturally unsustainable and would have slowed down once aircraft started getting delivered in the '80s. They wouldn't have ever gotten everything on their Christmas wish list.

 

[Scott Kenny]

The only concrete plan was 80 additional F-14s + 300 F16s to replace F-5s. Half of the F-14s would be under the control of the newly established Tactical Air Command (TAC) the other half would go to the Strategic Air Defense Command (SADC) along with a possible buy of 40 F-15s. TAC was unfortunately dissolved after '79 and they never got around to creating SADC to begin with.

80x F-14s in TAC and 80x in SADC, 160 total?

The F-18 was the only real option for an F-4 replacement in terms of capability as the F-16A was WVR only and had limited payload. But the Carter admin was dragging its feet in approving the export. Though its also important to note the IIAF was growing at an extremely rapid pace in the '70s. This growth was naturally unsustainable and would have slowed down once aircraft started getting delivered in the '80s. They wouldn't have ever gotten everything on their Christmas wish list.

D'oh! Good point. It would have taken F-16Cs to replace the Phantoms.

So yeah, the Shah would have 3 major types in his Air Force fleet. F-14s on the high end, F-16s on the low end, and Hornets as fighter-bombers.

 

[njiiaf]

80x F-14s in TAC and 80x in SADC, 160 total?

Yes, 160 in total. I have to mention the whole SADC + 40 F15s comes from Brig. Gen Namaki and maybe one other person mentioned it, I forget. Feel free to take it with a grain of salt since it is second hand info 45 years after the fact. Though I consider Namaki to be a pretty honest, reliable source. But without a doubt 160 F-14s.

D'oh! Good point. It would have taken F-16Cs to replace the Phantoms.

So yeah, the Shah would have 3 major types in his Air Force fleet. F-14s on the high end, F-16s on the low end, and Hornets as fighter-bombers.

That's if the Hornet export ever got approved. Maybe Reagan would have approved it, who knows.

 

[Lascaris]

Yes, 160 in total. I have to mention the whole SADC + 40 F15s comes from Brig. Gen Namaki and maybe one other person mentioned it, I forget. Feel free to take it with a grain of salt since it is second hand info 45 years after the fact. Though I consider Namaki to be a pretty honest, reliable source. But without a doubt 160 F-14s.

That's if the Hornet export ever got approved. Maybe Reagan would have approved it, who knows.

Wasn't this supposed to be the Northrop F-18L giving it its much sought after initial client?

 

[Yellow Palace]

Wasn't this supposed to be the Northrop F-18L giving it its much sought after initial client?

That's what Northrop hoped. But the US wasn't willing to develop a new type purely for export, and Iran didn't want to be the launch customer for a type the US wasn't operating itself.

If someone else bought them first, I think Iran would have liked the F-18L. If they hadn't, then I think they'd have gone another route.

I definitely don't think there's a credible scenario where Iran operates all four teen-series fighters. Reality has to kick in at some point.

 

[Kiltonge]

That's what Northrop hoped. But the US wasn't willing to develop a new type purely for export, and Iran didn't want to be the launch customer for a type the US wasn't operating itself.

Iran absolutely did want to be the launch customer for the F-18L; their contract negotiations for 250 of them included 'seed money' for full-scale development ( AvWeek, 15 Nov 1976 ).*

The seed funding wouldn't have covered all the dev costs, for which more export orders were required, but Iran was happy to be first.

Unfortunately the F-18L needed more than money, it needed a political sponsor.

* In contast, the Iranian F-16 purchase was to be off-the-shelf and funded by the supply of oil, not cash.

 

[Kiltonge]

Some more info on how Iran planned to procure the F-18L ( AvWeek, 31 Jan 1977 ), as proposed to Naval Air Systems Command.

1. The first phase would see Iran pay $6.7 million to cover the entirety of a 'study definition', with no obligation for procurement*.
2. If the results of the study indicated that the F-18L would make a suitable replacement for the F-4, Iran would place an order for 250.

Why was Iran so keen on the F-18L versus the F/A-18A? The prospect was that it would be 6,000lb lighter, which directly translated to payload.

By Mar 1977, there was a rumour that the F-16 sales terms presented to the Shah would have prohibited him from buying the F-18L if he took the F-16. This was the result of pressure from Texan congressmen who wanted to protect General Dynamics. However Iran said that if they couldn't buy the F-18L they'd buy the Mirage 2000, instead of additional F-16s, to replace the F-4 - causing pandemonium. The Shah rejected the F-16 terms and a new contract had to be drawn up, which also reduced the F-16 unit sales price from $20 million to $6 million. He was no fool.


* This would also benefit Spain, Australia and Canada who were interested in the type, who could freeload on Iran's funding

 

[Lascaris]

* This would also benefit Spain, Australia and Canada who were interested in the type, who could freeload on Iran's funding

Greece as well actually were F-18 was the leading candidate for its new fighter

 

[isayyo2]

Why was Iran so keen on the F-18L versus the F/A-18A? The prospect was that it would be 6,000lb lighter, which directly translated to payload.

Might have been Northrop trying to woo any customer under the sun for the F-18L, while McDonald Douglas was content with the existing USN and USMC F/A-18 purchases.

 

[apparition13]

P530 was meant to have licensed production. Was this the case with the F-18L as well? Because I can see how that would be attractive to the Shah.

 

[Kiltonge]

P530 was meant to have licensed production. Was this the case with the F-18L as well? Because I can see how that would be attractive to the Shah.

No, the F-18L was to be built at Northrop.

So concerned were some Texan congressmen about this potential competition for the F-16 that they threatened to veto Navy funding for the F/A-18 if the '18L was allowed to go ahead. The Navy was aghast!

The paperwork for the F-18L sale was deliberately delayed by a 'senior official' at the DoD whilst Carter deliberated about whether to authorise it.

As it was, Carter's indecision segued into the Revolution which tidily made the issue moot, along with debates as to how many E-3 the Iranians would be allowed to buy.

 

[Rule of cool]

In the late 70s Iran had 125 Shir 1 tanks in production in Britain and IIUC production had been approved for 250 of 1200 Shir 2 tanks, giving the ROF Leed a full order book for the foreseeable future. The Revolution and subsequent cancellation of those orders put the ROF in a very tight spot. Ind the end the 125 Shir 1s were purchased by Jordan which also ordered another 149 Khalids while the British evaluated the Shir 2 against the MBT80 project and ordered 237 Shir 2s as Challenger 1 tanks.

Without the revolution Jordan will be in the market for 270+ tanks and Britain would continue with the MBT80 project for some time.

 

[Lascaris]

Revolution or no revolution the shah is still dying in 1980. Even if there is no revolution we can reasonably assume the succession to Reza II to be the cause of some instability and that the new emperor will be forced into a degree of liberalization of the regime.

How likely is it that the post-1980 Iran thus continues pouring billions into more more orders, beyond the contracts already signed? Against whom Iran needs another 70 F-14, 53 F-15, 250 F-18 and 225 F-16 for example on top of the ones already ordered. IMO you see anything not signed into contract by mid-1980 get frozen or massively reduced in scope.

Single but important caveat. How likely is Saddam to try to take advantage of the likely succession instability to attack Iran? I'd say there's a reasonable chance he does. Only in this case it's a still western aligned Iran he goes after. As soon as Iran gets its act together...

 

[Yellow Palace]

Iran absolutely did want to be the launch customer for the F-18L; their contract negotiations for 250 of them included 'seed money' for full-scale development ( AvWeek, 15 Nov 1976 ).*

I may have misremembered the details, but while they wanted the F-18L it's my understanding that they didn't want to risk being the sole operator of an orphan type.

In the late 70s Iran had 125 Shir 1 tanks in production in Britain and IIUC production had been approved for 250 of 1200 Shir 2 tanks, giving the ROF Leed a full order book for the foreseeable future. The Revolution and subsequent cancellation of those orders put the ROF in a very tight spot. Ind the end the 125 Shir 1s were purchased by Jordan which also ordered another 149 Khalids while the British evaluated the Shir 2 against the MBT80 project and ordered 237 Shir 2s as Challenger 1 tanks.

Mentioned back in Post #24. Often forgotten in these discussions is that Iran also planned to buy 800 BMPs from the Soviet Union.

How likely is it that the post-1980 Iran thus continues pouring billions into more more orders, beyond the contracts already signed?

Not at all likely; in fact I think to avoid a revolution you need to avoid the kind of profligacy (not just in defence) that we saw in the 1970s. That isn't a sufficient condition - there were other issues which are beyond the scope of this discussion - but it's probably a necessary one.

Revolution or no revolution the shah is still dying in 1980. Even if there is no revolution we can reasonably assume the succession to Reza II to be the cause of some instability and that the new emperor will be forced into a degree of liberalization of the regime.

You can wiggle the 1980 date a little depending on the scenario, but not much - there are arguments that openly admitting his illness and seeking better treatment earlier might have given Reza Mohammed a bit longer. Liberalisation under Reza II isn't a given, it's entirely possible that perceived weakness of a young Reza II - which AFAIK was a concern in OTL before the revolution - leads to some kind of coup (palace or military) and harsher rule.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Not at all likely; in fact I think to avoid a revolution you need to avoid the kind of profligacy (not just in defence) that we saw in the 1970s. That isn't a sufficient condition - there were other issues which are beyond the scope of this discussion - but it's probably a necessary one.

You can wiggle the 1980 date a little depending on the scenario, but not much - there are arguments that openly admitting his illness and seeking better treatment earlier might have given Reza Mohammed a bit longer. Liberalisation under Reza II isn't a given, it's entirely possible that perceived weakness of a young Reza II - which AFAIK was a concern in OTL before the revolution - leads to some kind of coup (palace or military) and harsher rule.

I dunno, you might be able to maintain military loyalty to Reza II by maintaining the military spending.

 

[Yellow Palace]

I dunno, you might be able to maintain military loyalty to Reza II by maintaining the military spending.

The problem isn't the loyalty of the military to the Shah, but of confidence in the population. I suspect any coup would be along the time-honoured lines of 'We are ridding the King of his wicked and corrupt advisors, and only seek to protect the kingdom for him'.

Wickedness and corruption are of course entirely optional in both the King's advisor, and those who would rid him of them.

 

[Scott Kenny]

The problem isn't the loyalty of the military to the Shah, but of confidence in the population.

Fair point.

I have no feel for how trusting the Iranian People were of the Shah or his son. All my life, they've been run by the Ayatollahs.

 

[Yellow Palace]

I have no feel for how trusting the Iranian People were of the Shah or his son. All my life, they've been run by the Ayatollahs.

The second sentence here offers a response to the first.

 

[Cjc]

Revolution or no revolution the shah is still dying in 1980. Even if there is no revolution we can reasonably assume the succession to Reza II to be the cause of some instability and that the new emperor will be forced into a degree of liberalization of the regime.

How likely is it that the post-1980 Iran thus continues pouring billions into more more orders, beyond the contracts already signed? Against whom Iran needs another 70 F-14, 53 F-15, 250 F-18 and 225 F-16 for example on top of the ones already ordered. IMO you see anything not signed into contract by mid-1980 get frozen or massively reduced in scope.

Single but important caveat. How likely is Saddam to try to take advantage of the likely succession instability to attack Iran? I'd say there's a reasonable chance he does. Only in this case it's a still western aligned Iran he goes after. As soon as Iran gets its act together...

The Soviet union? The f-14 were specifically because of mig-25 runs over northern iran. Plus they were pushing to be the hegamon of the middile east and that also requires a lot of equipment.

And unless there is a revolution iraq isn't attacking iran, simply because even sadam knows that's a war he ain't winning.

 

[Lascaris]

The Soviet union? The f-14 were specifically because of mig-25 runs over northern iran. Plus they were pushing to be the hegamon of the middile east and that also requires a lot of equipment.

Both were the pet concerns/ projects of the autocrat in charge who famously chose F-14 over F-15 because the Grumman test pilot had the good sense to cheat in the flight demonstration. Why any post-shah government which has somewhat more immediate problems like not having a mass popular revolt says "lets buy another 598 fighter aircraft and three aircraft carriers on top of the 513 we just bought and are still being delivered, instead of trying to mollify our people so they don't kill us"? As opposed to using oil money to oh buy off these disgruntled masses. All these in the early-mid 1980s one notes with the Saudis crashing oil prices.

And unless there is a revolution iraq isn't attacking iran, simply because even sadam knows that's a war he ain't winning.

Does he? At the very time of the Algiers agreement he was also sending armor to invade Iran.

 

[Scott Kenny]

And unless there is a revolution iraq isn't attacking iran, simply because even sadam knows that's a war he ain't winning.

You're missing the Sunni/Shia infighting.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Both were the pet concerns/ projects of the autocrat in charge who famously chose F-14 over F-15 because the Grumman test pilot had the good sense to cheat in the flight demonstration.

FWIW that was an improvement over the original plan, which was 30 F-14s and 53 F-15s. Which is why I'm very suspicious of a planned post-1978 order for 53 F-15s... it's exactly the same number that was called for in the early 1970s as part of a mixed fleet.

 

[TinWing]

The economy wasn't as bad as people like to say.. the interest rates were horrible to handle the inflation from Nixon going on a printing spree (and that getting jacked with a couple of oil shocks made it much worse): Real GDP, growth after inflation is taken out, was about the same as Reagan. Carter' unadjusted GDP was around 10% or better per year, which adjusted to roughly 3% (inflation was 13.5% in 80).

I spent the last of my teens and a most of my 20's living with inflation hovering around 4-5% and unemployment at over 5% with Reagan averaging an adjusted GDP of 3.5%.

No Iran going nuts Americans are not under enough stress to roll the dice on "voodoo economics" (Bush coined that phrase in the primary); Carter should win pretty easily without Iran going loony tunes.

If Carter had won in 1980, it’s possible that the Soviets would have won the Cold War due to the demoralization and the downward economic spiral in the United States. Reagan’s defense buildup was essentially a massive Keynesian spending program to offset tight monetary policy. The 1982 recession was inevitable but paired with Carter’s defense cuts and austerity, probably would have become another Great Depression. Or if Carter had forced the Federal Reserve to back off on interest rates, inflation would have spiraled and the United States would have seen the same sort of inflationary collapse that the Soviet Union did. Take your picks. A second Carter term would have ended in catastrophe and Soviet victory.

 

[Seragina]

You're missing the Sunni/Shia infighting.

Yep. It would have end up like Syria sooner or later.
Even if it does get a democracy following the change it would get a military coup decades later and end up radical state.
Why I'm certain about this? Because this line of events already had happened in Algeria, Egypt, Sudan etc.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Carter’s defense cuts

Carter, whatever else you may think of him, cut defence spending all the way down from 4.9% of GDP in 1978 to a measly 5.6% of GDP in 1981. Which I'm sure was devastating. He might or might not have got all the way to Reagan's 6.8% in 1982. But the trajectory was clear, and it wasn't cuts – Carter was more hawkish than he generally gets credit for.

 

[Cjc]

Both were the pet concerns/ projects of the autocrat in charge who famously chose F-14 over F-15 because the Grumman test pilot had the good sense to cheat in the flight demonstration. Why any post-shah government which has somewhat more immediate problems like not having a mass popular revolt says "lets buy another 598 fighter aircraft and three aircraft carriers on top of the 513 we just bought and are still being delivered, instead of trying to mollify our people so they don't kill us"? As opposed to using oil money to oh buy off these disgruntled masses. All these in the early-mid 1980s one notes with the Saudis crashing oil prices.

Does he? At the very time of the Algiers agreement he was also sending armor to invade Iran.

The threat of the soviet union was considered very real, even after the revolution the ussr was considered gust as much as threat to iran as the us was (before during and after the iraq war I sould add)

That story i have yet to see any sorses for, in reality the f-14 was picked because it could actually deal with the repided mig-25 recon flights that the f-15 couldn't (it could also act as a small awacs wich was important in a country who's geography made full radar coverage even from regular awacs to expensive)

Also what? That Algiers agreement happened years before the war, it also shows my point that sadam wasn't going to start a war unless he was confident he was going to win, wich only happened in otl because of the revolution.

 

[Michel Van]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032813940695089212

View: https://twitter.com/Destroye83/status/2032813940695089212

 

[Lascaris]

The threat of the soviet union was considered very real, even after the revolution the ussr was considered gust as much as threat to iran as the us was (before during and after the iraq war I sould add)

That story i have yet to see any sorses for, in reality the f-14 was picked because it could actually deal with the repided mig-25 recon flights that the f-15 couldn't (it could also act as a small awacs wich was important in a country who's geography made full radar coverage even from regular awacs to expensive)

How many other countries facing the very real Soviet threat decided that countering it would be done by purchasing 1000 fighter planes for the United States? Why it was not done by states with far higher GDP, population and industry than Iran frex West Germany? Short answer these governments were actually answerable to their citizens.

Also what? That Algiers agreement happened years before the war, it also shows my point that sadam wasn't going to start a war unless he was confident he was going to win, wich only happened in otl because of the revolution.

And as mentioned at the very time he sent Armor to invade Iranian territory. Now Iranian Phantoms smashed up the armored thrust and Saddam after the demonstration stuck to the terms of the agreement, but that was AFTER trying to rattle the cage he had just signed for and had his head handed to him for it by the Iranian air force.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Regarding Project Peace Log:

Peace Log
The Peace Log program evolved from a trip by General Catton, former commander of AFLC, to Iran in September 1973. During that visit, General Khatami, former commander of the Imperial Iranian Air Force (IIAF) requested logistics assistance to cope with an increasingly large and complex inventory of military hardware. The USAF agreed to develop a long range logistics management plan through FMS. The ultimate purpose was to provide, through a contractor, the maximum logistics self-sufficiency within the IIAF. After the Peace Log plan was designed, developed, and defined by AFLC, the program responsibility for implementation was assigned to the San Antonio ALC (SA-ALC). The in country effort began in October 1975, with the start up of SA-ALC Detachment 30. Contract negotiations were conducted by SA-ALC and the IIAF selected Lockheed Aircraft Services (LAS) to perform the work required for the first three years of the proposed six year effort. The contract for $137.9 million was awarded in December 1975.

The Peace Log program consisted of three cases. The first case, IR-D-GFZ, involving USAF planning and initial management of the program was completed in 1976. The second case, IR-D-NBP, was for the continuation of USAF management of the program involving USAF personnel in Iran and at SA-ALC. The third case, IR-D-ZAA, involved LAS personnel to perform the services as noted earlier.

The Peace Log program was showing progress in the development of the IIAF logistics system, and by 31 December 1978, LAS had 474 people in-country. However, due to the turbulent conditions in Iran, Detachment 30 dependents were evacuated from Iran in December 1978, and in January 1979, 523 LAS dependents were evacuated. The MOU initially directed that the number of in-country personnel be reduced to 97; however, subsequent guidance directed that all positions be terminated and that all U.S. personnel in Iran be evacuated; thus, the beginning of "Safe Haven." On 17-18 February 1979, the final evacuation of Detachment 30 and LAS personnel was completed.

Case NBP remains open pending expiration of the statute of limitations on claims for reimbursement which may arise from those personnel who were evacuated from Iran. The USAF Staff Judge Advocate recommended that the case remain open until at least July 1982. Under the provisions of the MOU, LAS's role in case ZAA was terminated on 2 March 1979. The contract was given to the Defense Contract Administrative Service, Los Angeles area, for settlement action. Over LAS's objections, the Termination Contract Officer issued a decision on 25 April 1979 to settle the contract on a total cost basis amounting to over $92 million. To this date, case ZAA is still open because billing action is incomplete. (13; 31; 44).

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA124053.pdf