Let’s try to model the interception scenario.

The MiG-31’s flight profile consists of a supersonic dash over a distance of 720 km, followed by an attack on the target with missiles having a range of 180 km (different sources give figures from 160 to 200 km, so let’s get the average). This gives us an interception range of 900 km = 720 + 180. We can estimate the time required to intercept a target at 20.25 minutes: 17.34 minutes for the carrier aircraft’s flight plus 2.91 minutes for the missile’s flight at an average speed of Mach 3.5.

Now let’s check the Su-57. Let’s assume a hypothetical air-breathing missile with an average speed of Mach 4.5 and a range of 400 km (this is a conservative estimate based on Waverider data). The missile would cover 400 km in 5.03 minutes = 400 / (4.5 × 1060/60). The Su-57 is capable of a long flight at Mach 2.0, but let’s limit its speed to Mach 1.8 plus a 5 minute dash at Mach 2.35. Since the missile takes 5.03 minutes and the total time limit is 20.25 minutes, the jet has 15.22 minutes remaining. This allows it to cover 532.6 km = 325 km + 207.6 km. Here, 325 km is the distance covered at Mach 1.8 over 10.22 minutes, and 207.6 km is the distance covered at Mach 2.35 over 5 minutes.

The resulting profile is as follows: ~10 minutes of flight at Mach 1.8, a 5 minute dash at Mach 2.35, and then another 5 minutes of missile flight at Mach 4.5. This would make it possible to engage a target 932.6 km away = 532.6 + 400.

So, being limited to 20 minutes, the MiG‑31 could reach a target at 900 km, while the Su‑57 with a new missile could reach one at ~930 km

Does the Russian Ministry of Defense have an air-to-air missile with these characteristics? Certainly not.

Which would be easier to develop: a replacement for the MiG-31, or a new missile with these characteristics? The answer is obvious.

P.S. I fully understand simplifications are very significant — but that allowed me to keep the post somewhat compact.
 
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The task itself is not very meaningful.
Mig-25 speed was born out of necessity to intercept Valkirye; everything else (including RB variant) was more or less a bonus. Valkyrie wasn't born.
Mig-31 was born out of necessity to intercept B-1A. It wasn't born really, but B-1B was a thing, i.e. excessive speed wasn't really necessary, overall, the plane had enough justification to be.

There's really no such high-speed threat any longer; what's needed is time on station and more advanced sensors. The only use case i can come up with for mig-31 in the future is attempting a hypersonic goalkeeper. But this isn't so much about the speed of the plane, but rather the main sensor size. Outside of ABM/Hypersonic defense(which is a bit of a stretch for a useful role)...I frankly wonder.
 
MiG-31
The subsonic practical range and duration without external tanks and with the infrared sensor retracted are as follows:
a) without missiles: range 2480 km; duration 2 h 44 min.
b) with 4 missiles and launch at the midpoint: range 2400 km; duration 2 h 35 min.
c) with 4 missiles: range 2240 km; duration 2h 26 min.

The subsonic practical range and duration with 4 missiles and two external tanks, missile launch in the middle of the flight path, release of the external tanks after they are depleted, and the released infrared sensor are: range 3000 km; duration 3h 38 min.

Su‑57
Flight range without external fuel tanks: 3,500 km Flight range with external tanks: 4,300 km

The company mastered the production of external fuel tanks PTB‑2000 and PTB‑3400, as well as integral fuel tanks VTB‑M and VTB‑B [tanks for internal weapon bay], in a very short time.
 
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MiG-31
The subsonic practical range and duration without external tanks and with the infrared sensor retracted are as follows:
a) without missiles: range 2480 km; duration 2 h 44 min.
b) with 4 missiles and launch at the midpoint: range 2400 km; duration 2 h 35 min.
c) with 4 missiles: range 2240 km; duration 2h 26 min.

The subsonic practical range and duration with 4 missiles and two external tanks, missile launch in the middle of the flight path, release of the external tanks after they are depleted, and the released infrared sensor are: range 3000 km; duration 3h 38 min.

Su‑57
Flight range without external fuel tanks: 3,500 km Flight range with external tanks: 4,300 km
Is that total range/flight time? What's the loiter time at 500km?

Since IIRC most of the MiG31 mission is patrol loiter at best cruise, not supersonic sprint from airfield to launch point.
 
I think the news is that their idea of 6th Gen is more UAV projects related then it is making an aircraft cost 100 to 200 million dollars with a newer design and fancier equipment. Let's try to think from a military perspective in chosing whats a cheaper solution in eliminating a specific target.

A) launching a prsm or iskander missile at some target. Fuel for missile, missile design and engine and sensors might be pricey assuming it also doesnt get intercepted.

B) Using an aircraft to drop a glide bomb, only pricey thing is maintenance and fuel for aircraft to, but a SAM or adversary aircraft can make it pricey if they shoot it down.

C) testing a 60km range UAV that can carry 300kg that if it passes tests will be put to production. All those grenades dropping on soldiers? Try to imagine dropping fab-250s becoming the new normal in a war instead. The thought of a UAV operator being able to carry an airstrike in terms of explosives in a battlefield is wild.

Answer (C) would be the cheapest solution. Now its another thing if they can create UAVs with air to air missiles that can be controlled by aircrafts to carry out strike commands to aerial targets or eventually satellites giving UAVs the orders to do that. Cheaper and faster worked when one country was able to produce alot of T-34s then the country that produced tiger or panzer tanks. We will find out sooner or later if integrating an air force with UAVs to get a job done militarily as a cheap option is a better solution or not then some country probably blowing above 200 million dollars on a 6th Gen aircraft assuming everything goes perfect with no bugs then compared to it's 5th Gen counterpart that took awhile to fix its issues.
 
Su-57 and its A2G armament inside of its two FWC's . Photo,illustration by P.B. as No 4 :

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/FighterJets/comments/1qsdkj6/su57_and_vympel_izdeliye_810_integration_album/#lightbox


We have tactical low flying subsonic stealth CM type Kh-69, than there is ARM type Kh-58UShK-TP, universal ASM type Kh-38M(versions : MA,MK,ML and MT) ,glide bomb with the booster type Kh-36 Тhunder, laser or inertial/satellite guided bomb KAB-250S/LG. Also there can be new ASM (anti-ship or A2G) missile type Kh-59M2A ( Izdeliye 720) with its ARH.

All this weapons can be attached either on UVKU-50L (max 250kg) or UVKU-50U (max 750/800kg).
 
^

''older airframe'' ? As we can see ,it is serial/operational aircraft not the prototype.
 
''“Newer” airframes have enlarged electro-optical apertures, formation lights, some other modification.''

'Older' but it is still only max five,six years old. That's what I was thinking about. 'Newer' or modified ,yes.
 
Russia details roles for its two-seat Su-57D fighter

Key Points
  • Rostec says the two-seat Su-57D will train pilots in specialized flight regimes and serve as an airborne control platform for uncrewed aircraft.
  • Some analysts believe the program was built partly to support export contracts, with India cited as a country interested in a two-seat variant.

https://defence-blog.com/russia-details-roles-for-its-two-seat-su-57d-fighter/
 
'Older' but it is still only max five,six years old. That's what I was thinking about. 'Newer' or modified ,yes.
Su-57 was originally meant to go into production in 2015(around F-35 IOC), not in 2019-20 as it actually turned out.
I.e. sensor suit of first two regiments or so is in fact >10 years old.
 
Su-57 was originally meant to go into production in 2015(around F-35 IOC), not in 2019-20 as it actually turned out.
I.e. sensor suit of first two regiments or so is in fact >10 years old.

That is because the first test flight of the first flying prototype happened during 2010, not during 2006/07 as it was planned.
 
Rostec will present the export-spec Su-57E, armed with fundamentally new weapons, in Egypt for the first time.

The Russian fifth-generation Su-57E aircraft system will be presented in its export configuration at the El Alamein International Airshow 2026 in Egypt, featuring fundamentally new weapons never before demonstrated in Russia or abroad. As part of the flight program, the aircraft will demonstrate aerobatic maneuvers.

"The Su-57 is the flagship fighter of the Russian Air Force, whose performance has been proven in real combat conditions. Now this aircraft is conquering export markets. Deliveries are already underway to foreign partners, who understand the advantages of this aircraft. New modifications of the fighter are becoming even more effective and dangerous. In Egypt, we are presenting an export version with completely new weapons, which are being demonstrated for the first time," Rostec noted.

The Su-57E is distinguished by its stealth characteristics, super-maneuverability, and a wide range of weapons.

The El Alamein International Airshow 2026 will be held at El Alamein International Airport in Egypt from September 8 to 10. Rosoboronexport is organizing the unified Russian exhibit.

https://t.me/rostecru/12668
 
So T-50-9 will show off what else fits inside those IWBs this time. Dubai Air Show last year already had people in awe, I'm interested to see what they'll bring this time. I presume it will be related to S-71 one way or another.
 
To be honest, what is weird for me is that Su-57E will be presented in the country which rejected even Su-35 and after India 'officially' rejects Su-57E for its IAF.

So T-50-9 will show off what else fits inside those IWBs this time. Dubai Air Show last year already had people in awe, I'm interested to see what they'll bring this time. I presume it will be related to S-71 one way or another.

It is nice to show and present such a fighter like Su-57 ,even with its armament and its unbelievable flight capabilities.Showing and presentation is one thing,selling them is something else. I've really hoped IAF will be biggest user of the Su-57E but but.... After Algeria, it is question how many countries will get this fighter.
 
Given that India made demands which were not reconcilable with UAC/Rostec/The Russian state, it's no surprise that nothing came off it. Just because they're desperate now doesn't mean the Indians dropped their entitlement of technology transfer and having Russia foot the bill of modifications the IAF wants, not the VKS. That ship sailed now roughly ten years ago.

It looks like they're courting the French, possibly for Rafale F5 and whatever French next generation fighter will be developed. It's to be seen if Dassault, known to be a harsh mistress, can drive some sense into them.

That aside, they were never going to get the Su-57 as it's operated by the VKS in it's latest iteration, which also bothered them I imagine. And as China isn't an option, the Su-57 ship sailed, the US won't sell them F-35s and AMCA stalling continuously, it's to be seen what they'll do in an Asia where fifth and sixth generation fighters will become the standard.

As for expo and showcase stuff, having a wide selection of munitions and compatible systems and being able to showcase them makes the offer more attractive to potential customers, because they may find a capability that they previously considered not integrated into the aircraft and thus didn't consider it. And the Su-57s strongest point is just it's sheer versatility, especially thanks to it's large bays and Russia investing in adapting existing munitions for the type while simultaneously developing a new ecosystem of weapons, pods and other systems around the Su-57, T-75 and S-70 family. The aircrafts excellent situational awareness provided by an extensive multispectral sensor suite should also make it attractive for air forces that may lack dedicated early warning, control or electronic warfare aircraft, or lack them in quantity.

They'd be wise to emphasize it's utility and adaptability over other available aircraft, with the F-35 being it's main rival on that regard but strongly tied to the western block, while J-35 has yet to make it's entrance onto the export scene.

Regardless of that, I myself am still of the opinion that the T-75 will be more suitable for the export market, simply due to reduced operational costs. Which for many is more important than payload capacity.

But with Algeria having made the start and the VKS fleet growing, the initial order soon fulfilled, the Su-57 being continuously improved and the Su-57D having been developed, it's chances right now are better than at the time when Algeria consciously decided to be the launch customer outside of Russia. This should mean that additional customers should view such an adoption as less risky than before, because now it's operated by the VKS across Russia, having a successful combat record on top of that, while also being operated by the Algerian Air Force over the North African mountains, plains and arid regions.
 
To be honest, what is weird for me is that Su-57E will be presented in the country which rejected even Su-35 and after India 'officially' rejects Su-57E for its IAF.



It is nice to show and present such a fighter like Su-57 ,even with its armament and its unbelievable flight capabilities.Showing and presentation is one thing,selling them is something else. I've really hoped IAF will be biggest user of the Su-57E but but.... After Algeria, it is question how many countries will get this fighter.

The point is simply, the international market for heavy fighters is anyway limited - especially since „its unbelievable flight capabilities“ on Air Shows are lesser important for a deal than other arguments - and years of delays are maybe another reason that speak again the Su-57. And finally China is pressing hard into this market even if I‘m not sure if already ready to enter even more since the J-35 is placed a bit below the Su-57.
 
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The point is simply, the international market for heavy fighters is anyway limited
Which is kind of funny, as everyone and their dog tries to somehow do 40t aircraft now.

Even the countries which have neither substantial requirement nor economic capacity to sustain a force of such aircraft.
 
As for expo and showcase stuff, having a wide selection of munitions and compatible systems and being able to showcase them makes the offer more attractive to potential customers, because they may find a capability that they previously considered not integrated into the aircraft and thus didn't consider it. And the Su-57s strongest point is just it's sheer versatility, especially thanks to it's large bays and Russia investing in adapting existing munitions for the type while simultaneously developing a new ecosystem of weapons, pods and other systems around the Su-57, T-75 and S-70 family. The aircrafts excellent situational awareness provided by an extensive multispectral sensor suite should also make it attractive for air forces that may lack dedicated early warning, control or electronic warfare aircraft, or lack them in quantity.

They'd be wise to emphasize it's utility and adaptability over other available aircraft, with the F-35 being it's main rival on that regard but strongly tied to the western block, while J-35 has yet to make it's entrance onto the export scene.

Regardless of that, I myself am still of the opinion that the T-75 will be more suitable for the export market, simply due to reduced operational costs. Which for many is more important than payload capacity.

But with Algeria having made the start and the VKS fleet growing, the initial order soon fulfilled, the Su-57 being continuously improved and the Su-57D having been developed, it's chances right now are better than at the time when Algeria consciously decided to be the launch customer outside of Russia. This should mean that additional customers should view such an adoption as less risky than before, because now it's operated by the VKS across Russia, having a successful combat record on top of that, while also being operated by the Algerian Air Force over the North African mountains, plains and arid regions.
I very much agree with your points.

To add to them, I see two non-European/American 5th gen/LO force-enabler options emerging for countries that can't develop their own equipment and can't simply procure F-35s...:

1) (Russia) Russian path: Su-57E for now, Su-75E in the 2030s. CAATSA is a huge risk for most African/Asian/South American potential customers, but for those willing to take that on, your points apply here...


2) (Turkey) Kizilelma/Anka-3 in the late 20s/early 30s: These are less established options than the proven and already-in-production Su-57, but Turkey is willing to export them with limited restrictions, similar to its previous aircraft/drone exports, to capture a larger share of the market. While these are no substitute for manned 5th-generation operations yet, they are great enablers that can be implemented rather more easily and at lower cost.

Kizilelma also gets awfully close to a fighter-esque state with today's tech (FCR, IRST, EOTS, ESM-ECM), which might be attractive for those who aren't looking to implement the entire spectrum of modern network-centric operations, but would rather have an A2A asset that's less detectable than what they have available and can deep-strike less integrated A2AD areas (Kizilelma)...

Anka-3 is less fighter-like and more of a deep striker with its VLO, clean flying-wing form, RAM, and long endurance.

Engine is a bottleneck for the production of both of them in the 2026/27/28 period, but these drones will start full-rate production with indigenous TEI-TF6k from 2028 onwards...

All of which might very well make Anka-3/Kizilelma sell like hot cakes, like TB-2/Akinci/Anka/Aksungur did. I mean, Kizilelma already started early by initiating LRIP and receiving an order from Ind. for 12+48 aircraft to be delivered starting in 2028...

I intentionally covered only the UAVs in this Turkey section because while Kaan might already have received an order from Ind.; its availability for export is still so far away that it needs time to finish tests, deliver LRIP birds to TuAF, qualify its intended indigenous engine, and then initiate FRP/full-rate production...


(China) I think these are the only two options available to international non-US-aligned markets, because while the Chinese are undisputed leaders in advanced unmanned aircraft due to how many unmanned lower tier-UADF/CCA, fighter-esque (UADF T-A &-B), large bomber/recon (GJ-X/WZ-X) and flying-wing drones they've already developed, they are yet to offer any CCA Inc.1/.2-esque drones in international markets.

Their manned fighters (i.e., the J-35A[E]) are also not yet available for export, while Pakistan keeps hinting at a serious interest in it to maintain/increase its qualitative edge over India and balance India's quantitative edge with its own qualitative edge.


(UK) While Brontanax is a nice design to complement the GCAP, its first prototype just got rolled out and it still needs a couple of years to mature and initiate production. It's also doubtful how much of the drone/LO-aircraft market it can capture, and it looks like they took a conscious design decision not to fit an FCR in that nose given how small the volume is.


(Europe) And Europeans are still in the early stages of developing their own CCA Inc.1/Inc.2; while some develop their own aircraft from the ground up (Dassault/Airbus/Helsing/Saab), others like the Italians choose to integrate their own equipment on existing designs (Kizilelma).


(US) Likewise, while NG/Anduril/LM/et al. mainly offer their designs (which are at varying stages of development/testing) to Europe, they are yet to make a concrete move in this regard; and it is pretty much confirmed that the US Military is going to keep them busy enough to garner all their attention away from international markets.

Also, they are focused more on basic Inc.1-type drones and developing the operational concepts and procedures needed to employ them effectively before moving on to more capable/autonomous Inc.2 types, of which only the LockMart Vectis seems to have matured enough to be revealed to the public so far.


(Korea) They are also developing their own Inc.1/.2-type drones to complement the KF-21 Boramae; but while some of their Inc.1-type drones are in late-CDR/initial-testing, they are still yet to mature enough to start looking towards exports. KF-21 took a risk-averse path to development and needs some time until ~2032-ish to make it truly 5th generation, finish testing and start production in that form.

Again; non-LO Boramae, and Kaan with-indigenous engine require a couple of years to become serious export candidates. By then, the US might ease the restrictions on F-35 sale prospects to less-aligned countries, or China might start exporting the J-35A(E) and/or flying-wing and Inc.1/.2-esque-UADFs...
 

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Hello folks, here a for me new picture of a Su-57D taking off from Ramenskoye Airfield in Moscow Oblast, with several large hangars currently under construction in the background. The new shelters are intended to accommodate strategic aviation aircraft.

If this picture has already been posted in this topic, please let me know.

Source at X fka Twitter
 

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Probably i'm diverging, but i'm interested in the comment about large hangars for strategic aviation, why would the russians station strategic bombers at Ramenskoye? Unless maybe the purpose of these hangar is roughly similar to those at Lop Nur, ie future PAK-DA testing? Or it might be a mistake altogether and the hangars have nothing to do with bombers?
 
Probably i'm diverging, but i'm interested in the comment about large hangars for strategic aviation, why would the russians station strategic bombers at Ramenskoye? Unless maybe the purpose of these hangar is roughly similar to those at Lop Nur, ie future PAK-DA testing? Or it might be a mistake altogether and the hangars have nothing to do with bombers?
Ramenskoye is Gromov LII (Flight Research Institute). Yes, it's a direct counterpart to Edwards and Lop Nur.
 
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Which is kind of funny, as everyone and their dog tries to somehow do 40t aircraft now.

Even the countries which have neither substantial requirement nor economic capacity to sustain a force of such aircraft.

Well, these who do this are China, the USA and the British-Japanese-Italian GCAP ... all others are either not reaching this massive weight or are out of the high-end league!
 
The point is simply, the international market for heavy fighters is anyway limited - especially since „its unbelievable flight capabilities“ on Air Shows are lesser important for a deal than other arguments - and years of delays are maybe another reason that speak again the Su-57. And finally China is pressing hard into this market even if I‘m not sure if already ready to enter even more since the J-35 is placed a bit below the Su-57.
You would think so, but there's a number of countries that are operating Flankers, including later variants such as the Su-30SM.. despite either having small geographic size, a small economy or both. Countries such as Belarus, Armenia, Myanmar, etc.
Logically, MiG-29 variants would be better suited for those markets, but the reality is that countries relying on Russian aircraft might be forced to choose Sukhoi due to the issues surrounding the MiG-29M/35 program and limited userbase.

that being said, I agree with your last part, that's where China comes in. Their companies now offer a range of alternatives for countries that can't or don't want "western" jets, but also want something smaller (and cheaper) to operate than the Flankers. From armed trainers like the L-15, to the larger J-10, and the JF-17 that sits in between. Those who have more money to spend and a more modern design, may look hard at the J-35 alongside the Su-57.
 
The point is simply, the international market for heavy fighters is anyway limited - especially since „its unbelievable flight capabilities“ on Air Shows are lesser important for a deal than other arguments - and years of delays are maybe another reason that speak again the Su-57.

Yes and India got very nice offer for the Su-57E with partial or maybe complete know-how ,technology transfer,licence production etc.For one stealth 5th gen fighter, it was the best offer they could get. Yet they rejected all of that.
 
The offer of tech transfer was limited and they wanted more tech transfer than Russia was willing to give them, understandably so. They also wanted that Russia pays for modifications that they (India) wanted, so they'd buy the aircraft. The Russians found this unacceptable. They got a decent offer, the best offer for such a type of aircraft basically they could get, but they thought they could press the Russians more than they should've. Which led to Russia simply not pursuing that further. Years later India, still without any comparable aircraft, knocked at the door of the Russian MIC again, nothing changed.

Consequently they fly Rafales why the rest of Asia flies F-35s, Su-57s, J-20s, J-35s, GCAP, J-36s and J-50s in the near future. They have proven that they're no match for Pakistani J-10CEs and JF-17s without a decisive hardware overmatch, which the Rafale and Su-30MKI couldn't provide.

Trying to make sense of the Indian procurement habits and tactics is a foolish undertaking, only rivaled in lunacy by select gulf countries and Indonesia.

The Su-57 so far has followed where the Flanker went, it's to be kept in mind though that the majority of Flanker exports were Su-30 twin seat jets. So the Su-57D, which now has materialized without eternal funding, may be the attractive choice for such operators. A one-to-one replacement so to speak.

On that note, it's genuinely questionable if some interested customers have even the institutional capacity to develop and alter doctrine in accordance to how low observable tactical aircraft are operated. The F-35 for example sits firmly in the streamlined NATO network which standardizes that effort. But aircraft like the Su-57 or J-35 for that matter would require every pilot being trained in Russia/China respectively, because the customer itself is most likely unable to properly train their pilots even after an initial batch of foreign trained pilots come home. Because otherwise said countries would fly a Su-57 just like a Super Su-30, rather than leaning into it's unique attributes and operational requirements. From what I gathered from NATO and VKS pilots, flying fifth gen is very different than flying an F-15 or Su-35.
 
Yes and India got very nice offer for the Su-57E with partial or maybe complete know-how ,technology transfer,licence production etc.For one stealth 5th gen fighter, it was the best offer they could get. Yet they rejected all of that.

... maybe due to politics, maybe for good reason? Maybe just the typical Indian way!
 

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