Russian Space Program

[TomcatViP]

We still have to see what would come next: the first Space Resistance or the On-orbit Berlin wall about to crumble on our heads.

 

[Archibald]

Wow. Just wow. Even in the Cold War we didn't see this kind of childish behavior by the people running the Soviet space program. Crazy times we live in.

I may need to be forcibly restrained from posting a link to the French Castle scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Been there, done that. In reaction to the same Rogozin screwing Soyuz-in-Kourou.

Launch, Land, and Relaunch Party Thread

Launch, Land, and Relaunch Party Thread

forum.nasaspaceflight.com

"aaaarh, I fart in your general direction !"

 

[stealthflanker]

and so far i see Media and twitter think, that Rogozin is going to do this.



using ISS. which hillarious.

The old man can really use a spoke person.

 

[Rhinocrates]

Wow. Just as well that Musk is up to speed with Dragon or this could really get ugly.

It seems that if there's going to be any clear winner of this war, it will be Elon Musk. I don't mean to be glib or downplay the inevitably awful human cost. First, undersea cables have been looking vulnerable, so he's pushing Starlink and demonstrating rapid reaction with Ukraine. That rapid reaction is what the US Space Force has been looking for. Second, the Pentagon has been looking for rsuborbital (hey, anyone remember Phil Bono?) rapid delivery and he's selling starship as a point-to-point delivery system for a while already. That won't play a role yet, but the Russians have shown that raining and logistics have been their biggest weaknesses and so they're going to be even more emphasised in planning in the future. Third, Rogozin is standing up on his hind legs and making noises about the ISS to make sure he's on Putin's right side (pundits used to say that the most hawkish spokescreatures over the last few years were playing to an 'audience of one' - Trump - but that's the case with Putin too) and NASA has started buying more Dragon flights. Admittedly the last is partly due to the fact that Boeing is not inspiring much confidence with Starliner, but nonetheless, the priority is suddenly much higher.

 

[Archibald]

Fact is the ISS is a bit more than 400 tons of metal and an uncontrolled reentry could do a lot of damage.
But let's not go hysterical about this...

 

[Archibald]

Wow. Just as well that Musk is up to speed with Dragon or this could really get ugly.

It seems that if there's going to be any clear winner of this war, it will be Elon Musk. I don't mean to be glib or downplay the inevitably awful human cost. First, undersea cables have been looking vulnerable, so he's pushing Starlink and demonstrating rapid reaction with Ukraine. That rapid reaction is what the US Space Force has been looking for. Second, the Pentagon has been looking for rocket-based rapid delivery and he's selling starship as a point-to-point delivery system for a while already. That won't play a role yet, but it will feature in planning in the future. Third, Rogozin is standing up on his hind legs and making noises about the ISS to make sure he's on Putin's right side and NASA stars buying more Dragon flights. Admittedly the last is partly due to the fact that Boeing is not inspiring much confidence with Starliner, but nonetheless, the priority is suddenly much higher.

Starliner, let's talk about it. Presently flying on Atlas V but that rocket RD-180 engine is doomed, per Rogozin. Luckily enough ULA has 24 engines already in America, and Rogozin can do nothing about that.
Still this adds some (minor) pressure on Vulcan - and will force Starliner to swap launchers at some point in the near future.

List of remaining Atlas V launches.

List of Atlas launches (2020–2029) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

After 2022 only Starliner and Kuiper launches remain in the books. Interesting.
I wouldn't like to be in place of Boeing and Bezos. Atlas V is a fine rocket, but a) career end b) russian pressure and c) no other customer...

 

[Rhinocrates]

Fact is the ISS is a bit more than 400 tons of metal and an uncontrolled reentry could do a lot of damage.
But let's not go hysterical about this...

Well, 'uncontrolled' is the point. There's more capability available now than there was when Skylab fell. Anyway, did you know that if you laid all the world's statisticians end-to-end around the world, 73% of them would drown?

 

[Archibald]

Reminds me of a joke about the French reputed Polytechnique engineering school.

One polytechnicien teach a flea to jump when he whistles.
Then he removes the flea legs and whistles again.
And of course the poor flea can't jump anymore.
The polytechnicien then draws the evident conclusion of his experiment
...
"When a flea legs are removed, it can no longer hear anything."

 

[jeffb]

Second, the Pentagon has been looking for rsuborbital (hey, anyone remember Phil Bono?) rapid delivery and he's selling starship as a point-to-point delivery system for a while already. That won't play a role yet, but the Russians have shown that raining and logistics have been their biggest weaknesses and so they're going to be even more emphasised in planning in the future.

Who could forget Phil Bono, I love that guy!
But how does poor Russian logistics and training boost the need for sub-orbital, point-to-point delivery systems? I don't see the connection.

Point-to-point delivery systems might be a little controversial in the near term anyway, wouldn't want anyone to mistake them for the wrong sort of point-to-point "delivery system".

 

[publiusr]

I thought R-7….like B-52….might make it to 100.

I’m starting to doubt that now.

 

[mkellytx]

After 2022 only Starliner and Kuiper launches remain in the books. Interesting.
I wouldn't like to be in place of Boeing and Bezos. Atlas V is a fine rocket, but a) career end b) russian pressure and c) no other customer...

d) cost uncompetitive even for the government customers

 

[martinbayer]

Stepping back from the big picture, to me, while I proudly self identify as a Western European born social democrat, the fact that at *any point in time at all* the United States of America decided to rely on orbital launches, crewed capsule reentries, and liquid rocket engines supplied by large parts of the former Soviet Union for their space efforts always appeared as downright batscat lunacy. The USA effectively fed the troll.

 

[Archibald]

Stepping back from the big picture, to me, while I proudly self identify as a Western European born social democrat, the fact that at *any point in time at all* the United States of America decided to rely on orbital launches, crewed capsule reentries, and liquid rocket engines supplied by large parts of the former Soviet Union for their space efforts always appeared as downright batscat lunacy. The USA effectively fed the troll.

Yeah, but you know the ISS story, as it happened in 1993: keep those Russian rocket scientists buzy with their own civilian space program, otherwise they may sold their ICBM knowledge to rogue countries... North Korea, Iran...

 

[jeffb]

Stepping back from the big picture, to me, while I proudly self identify as a Western European born social democrat, the fact that at *any point in time at all* the United States of America decided to rely on orbital launches, crewed capsule reentries, and liquid rocket engines supplied by large parts of the former Soviet Union for their space efforts always appeared as downright batscat lunacy. The USA effectively fed the troll.

Russia was integrating into Europe, selling gas to Germany, the whole perestroika thing. Bush and Blair actually supported Putin taking the leadership.

Interesting Forbes article from October, 2018 provides some context:

Putin And Blair: Leadership Lessons From A Failed Political Friendship

Seeking out reliable long term partners is a challenge: whether in business; politics; diplomacy -- or espionage. The task is to identity those you can count on even as the world changes, and events do not turn out as foreseen. The west's relations with Russia offer some valuable lessons.

www.forbes.com

 

[publiusr]

Had Putin gone the other way…and embraced space…he could have done wonders for Russian prestige.

Putin is a fool.

 

[Archibald]

Blair came in 1997 but Putin rise to power was early 2000 - months before the Florida recount quagmire and W victory.

Fun fact :
Bush = bouche = mouth
Blair = blair = nose (slang)

So that's a face - except with no ears nor eyes.
Blind and deaf !

 

[martinbayer]

Putin is a fool.

Sir,

you are way too kind in your assessment of this... lifeform.

 

[Archibald]

Putin is a fool.

Sir,

you are way too kind in your assessment of this... lifeform.

You do know what "PUTAIN" means in French, do you ? and no, it's not a cheese-and-potatoes dish: that's Quebec Poutine. Putain is... something else entirely.

 

[Flyaway]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502331883367116805

View: https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1502331883367116805

Yesterday, Rogozin at a meeting calculated the damage Roscosmos inflicted to the West by refusing to launch OneWeb satellites ($8 billion) and deliver rocket engines to USA ($4 billion). He promised to continue to do so if the West "continues to behave like this". (RIA)

 

[Flyaway]

This article has a rundown of payloads formerly on russian launchers that are now looking for an alternative ride.

Soyuz embargo strands satellites with limited launch options - SpaceNews

More than a dozen former Soyuz satellite missions need new rides after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising questions over how fast the launch market can absorb the loss of the workhorse rocket.

spacenews.com

With the exception of OneWeb they seem to think Spacex has a windfall coming. One Web seem to be in a particular bind here more do than others. It doesn’t help that many companies are in transition to new launchers.

 

[jeffb]

Ex-NASA Astronaut Scott Kelly Says He’s Ending Feud With Russian Space Chief

Scott Kelly said he is ending the spat after NASA sent an email to former astronauts asking them to stop criticizing their Russian partners because it was hurting the mission aboard the International Space Station.

www.wsj.com

 

[TMA1]

Had Putin gone the other way…and embraced space…he could have done wonders for Russian prestige.

Putin is a fool.

No, he is certainly not a fool. Simplifying complex geopolitics to such a degree leads to ideological blind spots. Think about it from Putin's point of view. The arab springs and color revolutions and regime changes. It isnt just ruskies who indulge in this kind of insidious blur between soft and hard power. We do it too.

Dont think many realize we are witnessing the next great shift or epoch, for good or for worse, in this world. This all has much more to do than just Ukraine. We are all going to get a taste of the suffering I fear.

 

[TomS]

This article has a rundown of payloads formerly on russian launchers that are now looking for an alternative ride.

Soyuz embargo strands satellites with limited launch options - SpaceNews

More than a dozen former Soyuz satellite missions need new rides after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising questions over how fast the launch market can absorb the loss of the workhorse rocket.

spacenews.com

With the exception of OneWeb they seem to think Spacex has a windfall coming. One Web seem to be in a particular bind here more do than others. It doesn’t help that many companies are in transition to new launchers.

And then OneWeb went and hired SpaceX.

OneWeb agrees satellite programme with SpaceX

OneWeb announced today an agreement with SpaceX that will enable the continuation of its launch programme to grow its fleet of satellites in low Earth orbit. The first launch with SpaceX is anticipated in 2022.

oneweb.net

 

[Michel Van]

Next level of Escalation
Rogozin send several Tweets and Letters
About Termination of ISS cooperation
Now his menace got more serious since how he explained:

...Do unfaire sanctions by Wester nations..
...The Matter is now in hand of Russian Government...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCMjhE3oV5w


why i have that odd feeling that SpaceX building propulsion module and launch it with Falcon Heavy to ISS, after Russian de-dock ?

 

[Archibald]

The Russians are the ones shooting themselves in the foot. I mean - what will happen to that Nauka module they have just spent 25 years building, and launched to the ISS only six months ago ? And since it can't even dock properly, without sending the ISS making loopings...
That's annoying... for them.

 

[Flyaway]

Russia asked NASA to end sanctions to save the ISS, but the West didn’t blink

"Sustaining safe and successful ISS operations remains a priority for the United States."

arstechnica.com

 

[alberchico]

More childish behavior from Dimitry Rogozin:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510972377185890306

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AlanAbdo13/status/1510972377185890306

 

[Archibald]

Russia asked NASA to end sanctions to save the ISS, but the West didn’t blink

"Sustaining safe and successful ISS operations remains a priority for the United States."

arstechnica.com

Presently scratching my head wondering how NASA - merely one Federal agency among dozens others - could influence Joe Biden administration in lessening any sanctions against Russia.

 

[Rhinocrates]

Russia asked NASA to end sanctions to save the ISS, but the West didn’t blink

"Sustaining safe and successful ISS operations remains a priority for the United States."

arstechnica.com

Presently scratching my head wondering how NASA - merely one Federal agency among dozens others - could influence Joe Biden administration in lessening any sanctions against Russia.

Possibly because his actual intended audience is Putin.

 

[martinbayer]

Given Musk's proven rapid prototyping track record in various technologies, at this point I'm fairly confident that before the current Russian module runs out of propulsive capability, he could have a 100% US sourced Dragon based OMS/RCS capability replacement on station.

 

[TomcatViP]

Don't forget the secret MOL that the US Space Force is seemingly seemingly unveiling bit after bit.

 

[Kaanere]

https://tass.ru/kosmos/14525381

Rogozin said that the decision on the timing of the end of Russia's participation in the ISS program has already been made​

MOSCOW, 30 April. /TASS/. The decision on the timing of the end of Russia's participation in the ISS program has already been made, but will not be announced yet. Russia, in accordance with its obligations, will warn partners about it a year in advance, the head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin said on Saturday in an interview with the Rossiya-24 TV channel .

"The decision has already been made, we are not obliged to speak about it publicly," he said. "I can only say one thing: in accordance with our obligations, we will warn our partners a year in advance about the end of work on the ISS."

Rogozin clarified that the terms of Russia's work on the ISS are determined by the government and the president, at the moment the Russian Federation continues to work at the station until 2024. "This work will be largely related, first of all, not only to demonstrating our attitude to what is happening in the world, but it is also a demonstration of our readiness to deploy the Russian Orbital Service Station, <...> which will be multifunctional, work on it is already underway, the preliminary design is being developed by the Energia corporation. When it is presented and protected, after that we will already begin to create this "smart iron" and prepare its launch into space, the deployment of the station," he added.

Earlier, Rogozin, at a meeting with State Duma deputies from the Liberal Democratic Party, said that work on the ISS in the current geopolitical situation is not effective. He added that colossal funds would be required to extend the operation of the station until 2030, otherwise "the station will fall apart."

 

[edwest3]

Stepping back from the big picture, to me, while I proudly self identify as a Western European born social democrat, the fact that at *any point in time at all* the United States of America decided to rely on orbital launches, crewed capsule reentries, and liquid rocket engines supplied by large parts of the former Soviet Union for their space efforts always appeared as downright batscat lunacy. The USA effectively fed the troll.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. went bargain hunting. Imagine losing those Eastern European countries who decided - can you believe it - to declare independence. Czechoslovakia becomes the Czech Republic and Slovakia is now on its own. The U.S. found an engine it liked and Moscow could use the money.

Good old American (or Yankee) ingenuity has and can figure out solutions regarding replacing Russian equipment with as good or better replacements.

 

[martinbayer]

Stepping back from the big picture, to me, while I proudly self identify as a Western European born social democrat, the fact that at *any point in time at all* the United States of America decided to rely on orbital launches, crewed capsule reentries, and liquid rocket engines supplied by large parts of the former Soviet Union for their space efforts always appeared as downright batscat lunacy. The USA effectively fed the troll.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. went bargain hunting. Imagine losing those Eastern European countries who decided - can you believe it - to declare independence. Czechoslovakia becomes the Czech Republic and Slovakia is now on its own. The U.S. found an engine it liked and Moscow could use the money.

Good old American (or Yankee) ingenuity has and can figure out solutions regarding replacing Russian equipment with as good or better replacements.

I completely agree with your analysis, but the argument has been raised before in this forum (and certainly elsewhere) that the US tried to avoid an "idle hands" problem with ex soviet rocket scientists/engineers post the warsaw pact implosion by engaging them in international "peace dividend" projects instead, such as delivering ex soviet rocket engines to the US. Looking at vlad the invader's claims of an absolutely destructorific russki hypersonic missile, that logic would however appear to have most spectacularly backfired, if you pardon the pun.

 

[Archibald]

Stepping back from the big picture, to me, while I proudly self identify as a Western European born social democrat, the fact that at *any point in time at all* the United States of America decided to rely on orbital launches, crewed capsule reentries, and liquid rocket engines supplied by large parts of the former Soviet Union for their space efforts always appeared as downright batscat lunacy. The USA effectively fed the troll.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. went bargain hunting. Imagine losing those Eastern European countries who decided - can you believe it - to declare independence. Czechoslovakia becomes the Czech Republic and Slovakia is now on its own. The U.S. found an engine it liked and Moscow could use the money.

Good old American (or Yankee) ingenuity has and can figure out solutions regarding replacing Russian equipment with as good or better replacements.

Looks like we have a new @edwest - the third. Are you related to @edwest the second ?
@edwest2
@edwest3

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

I'm pretty sure I merged edwest with edwest2 some time ago. Any reason for the incrementing accounts? Should I merge all the posts from edwest2 to the new account? It's against the rules to have multiple accounts.

 

[alberchico]

Is there a possibility that this spat with the Russians over their ISS commitment could blow over in a few months or is this a permanent rupture in relations with them in regards to cooperation in space ?

 

[Archibald]

Is there a possibility that this spat with the Russians over their ISS commitment could blow over in a few months or is this a permanent rupture in relations with them in regards to cooperation in space ?

According to NASAspaceflight they have threatened to leave the ISS since 2014 - every single freakkin' month. That's 96 times the threat. And since the ISS is planned to last 8 more years, they may reach the 200 treshold...

 

[edwest3]

I'm pretty sure I merged edwest with edwest2 some time ago. Any reason for the incrementing accounts? Should I merge all the posts from edwest2 to the new account? It's against the rules to have multiple accounts.

I went to this forum and found I got booted through no fault of my own, so merge away.

Meanwhile, edwest2 is still on the ship. I'm not sure when the aliens are going to release him.

 

[uk 75]

As often over the years Arthur C Clarke's predictions sort of come true..

Cold War Interrupted: The Promise of ‘2010: The Year We Make Contact’

In late 1984 I encountered a film that would become, with the benefit of hindsight, the sine qua non experience of my 1980s sci-fi movie-going childhood. No, it wasn't Dune or The Terminator or Ghostbusters, but a now-little remembered sequel to Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke's immortal...

www.google.com