Future RNZN Frigate

[THO88]

The RNZN has stated they will replace their two Anzac Frigates by the mid 2030s. See page 34 of attached.

What do you think are the three most likely designs to be procured and how many? I believe by the 2030s, the deteriorating security situation with China in the Indo-Pacific will incentivize New Zealand to to align themselves more within the anglosphere and they will procure three frigates from either the UK, USA, Canada or Australia. Here is my list in order of most likely.

1) Type 31 or 32 Frigate from the UK
2) Type 26 Frigate with the most likely supplier being Australia, followed by the UK than Canada
3) Constellation Class Frigate from the US

 

[TomS]

Possibly some version of Arrowhead 140, but probably not Type 31. It's just too austere compared to the others.

That said, maybe one of the Damen Crossover combatants? Seems like it might fit better into the desire for utility in peacekeeping and disaster relief roles rather than a pure warship.

 

[GTX]

I would put money on a couple of the Hunter Class which is based upon the Type 26 which already selected by Australia, UK and Canada in one form or another. I am sure the Osborne Naval Shipyard can fit in a couple for our RNZN mates.

 

[DWG]

Hunter makes most sense for commonality with the Aussies, but NZ's always been budget squeezed, so I wouldn't entirely rule out an austere design like Type 31.

 

[DWG]

That said, maybe one of the Damen Crossover combatants? Seems like it might fit better into the desire for utility in peacekeeping and disaster relief roles rather than a pure warship.

Seems to me that the disaster relief role might better go to the new sealift ship, which is supposed to be bigger than HMNZS Canterbury, and have a well-deck, so >9,000 tonnes full load. Or to Canterbury seeing as that's already been tasked for disaster relief.

 

[H_K]

I would put money on a couple of the Hunter Class which is based upon the Type 26 which already selected by Australia, UK and Canada in one form or another.

Not a chance given NZ’s defence budget.

T31/T32 is one option but I expect there will be an open tender with a wide range of designs (Meko, Sigma, South Korea, probably the Italians, Spanish maybe the French too)

 

[uk 75]

No disrespect to New Zealand but a couple of frigates seem rather pointless.
NZ is so far away from any other country it is hard to see what they will spend their time doing.
A combination of MEZ patrol ships and perhaps a combination Disaster relief/Casualty receiving ship for UN and peacekeeping work would reflect good-natured NZ's requirements.

 

[GTX]

No disrespect to New Zealand but a couple of frigates seem rather pointless.

Well they already have Te Kaha and Te Mana ANZAC Class frigates which are quite versatile ships that have been used extensively. There is also some discussion on the future requirements here:

https://www.nzdf.mil.nz/assets/publ...yal-New-Zealand-Navy-December-2020_online.pdf

 

[GTX]

Here's the RNZN Specific Plan:

https://www.nzdf.mil.nz/assets/Publications/RNZN-Plan-2017-2025.pdf

 

[DWG]

No disrespect to New Zealand but a couple of frigates seem rather pointless.
NZ is so far away from any other country it is hard to see what they will spend their time doing.

If you get signs someone's* SSN is poking around NZ waters, then a couple of patrol boats and a couple of amphibs aren't going to be much use, and the P-8s on their own have limited utility. A frigate working with them is a more credible response.

NZ is in a much more interesting strategic position than our interpretation of it from the Northern hemisphere usually acknowledges. It's not a distant offshoot of Australia, it's pretty much the gateway to Micronesia. And China is putting a lot of effort into wooing the Micronesian nations.

*And we all know whose they might be.

 

[Brett Davidson]

NZs defence policy is based on working with allies, so there is an international dimension in our requirements. The frigates are often used to either work with allies' fleets or to relieve vessels that have been deployed for combat away from their usual patrols. Thus, while several fisheries protection type vessels would be immediately useful, something a couple of Type 26's would be more desirable to the Navy but as pointed out by H_K probably unaffordable, with other options likely.

 

[THO88]

New Zealand will need to maintain a few frigates if it has any intention of remaining a relevant, strategic partner of the west in the face of a rising China. Failing to do so would relegate them to a pacific Ireland. The joining of the HMNZS Te Kaha with the UK carrier strike group passing through the South China Sea is a perfect example of this.

As already stated, I’m sure the Navy will push for the Hunter Class as a block buy with Australia but will be forced to procure something smaller and cheaper due to budgetary constraints. I really think the Type 31/32 is going to win out.

 

[UpForce]

Comparable sized countries with modern frigates: Norway (Fridtjof Nansen-class, five built) and Denmark (Iver Huitfeldt/Absalon-class, also five built). These are going to be slightly dated by mid-2030s of course and won't be considered for New Zealand as such but perhaps indicative of what kinds of designs nations with limited resources can come up with and realize. Other examples?

 

[collins355]

Presumably something Korean would be the cheapest option frigate-wise - which NZ might prefer. FFX Batch IV? HMNZS Aotearoa is a Korean product IIRC.

 

[THO88]

Comparable sized countries with modern frigates: Norway (Fridtjof Nansen-class, five built) and Denmark (Iver Huitfeldt/Absalon-class, also five built).

I’ve always wondered how Norway and Denmark, with a similar sized population to NZ, have vastly more capable conventional militaries. Denmark is a better comparison since their defense budget is roughly the same as NZ ($5 billion USD). Denmark not only has 5 frigates, they also have F-35 fighters on order and Leopard 2 MBT.

The Type 31 is based on the Iver Huitfeldt design.

Presumably something Korean would be the cheapest option frigate-wise

Interesting take. The Koreans do make good ships and for cheap. It would also help strengthen an important pacific partnership as well.

 

[uk 75]

TinWing. Some years ago whenever I met someone with an accent I would ask them which part of NZ or Canada they came from? The look on the faces of Australians and Americans is always worth it.
You mean there are no kangaroos in Texas, no wonder Southfork Ranch had no sheep.
I always think of NZ as Ireland in the Pacific. You both get used to make films in too. Apart from "Father Ted" and "Madam and Eve" (S Afr newspaper cartoon) this is one of my favourites
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Footrot_Flats

 

[GTX]

Australia is Texas with kangaroos.

Please...some of us might dispute that.

 

[DJK]

So the frigate options are shapng up. Anyone know if the changing defence minister is likely to change the preferences/numbers?

We now have a much bigger population than thd days when we ran 4 Leanders.

 

[GTX]

https://navalinstitute.com.au/nz-at-crossroads-on-frigate-replacement/

My money would be on the Mogami class

 

[Ozair]

https://navalinstitute.com.au/nz-at-crossroads-on-frigate-replacement/

My money would be on the Mogami class

Agree, the question would be Japanese or Australian built with my expectation it will be Japanese built as Australian built won't make ANZAC class replacement timeframes.

 

[DJK]

Agree, the question would be Japanese or Australian built with my expectation it will be Japanese built as Australian built won't make ANZAC class replacement timeframes.

I don't think we have that much loyalty to be subsidising the Australian programme. If they could support our CAMM fitout maybe...

 

[DJK]

New Zealand will need to maintain a few frigates if it has any intention of remaining a relevant, strategic partner of the west in the face of a rising China. Failing to do so would relegate them to a pacific Ireland

I do think we need around 5 frigates to be useful, and to be able to generate 2 frigates for any single deployment while allowing for one to be in repair at some point. I would have liked to see them with hybrid CODELAG propulsion, since ASW is one of its roles. We got used to deploying frigates solo or as part of coalitions, and nobody was horrified when none were available due to refits in Canada. Still, useful means useful to NZ's defence policy, instead of compensating for British and American frigate shortages.

We can and will join a coalition if needed, but kind of moved on from being a subjugate part of the British Army, despite the current prime minister sucking up to Trump in a post-colonial last gasp. We literally are a Pacific Island lol. Although I have to say RN isn't what it used to be either.

The risk for us is that getting to close to big countries can backfire the moment their interests fall out of alignment or they just dont have the commitment.

 

[GTX]

I do think we need around 5 frigates to be useful, and to be able to generate 2 frigates for any single deployment while allowing for one to be in repair at some point.

Ah, but does the RNZN have the staff to crew these (and do other things)?

 

[GTX]

From last year:

New Zealand expresses interest in Japan's Mogami-class stealth frigates

 

[TomS]

Ah, but does the RNZN have the staff to crew these (and do other things)?

The two ANZACs nominally have a crew of 180 each. The Upgraded Mogamis have a claimed crew of 99 each, which on very simplistic maths suggest the RNZN could crew four of the newer frigates. Of course, I suspect they can't fully crew both current frigates, but maybe two Mogamis deployable at one time is feasible? With a third working up and a fourth in deep maintenance.

This seems very optimistic from a capital procurement budget perspective, however.

 

[GTX]

The two ANZACs nominally have a crew of 180 each. The Upgraded Mogamis have a claimed crew of 99 each, which on very simplistic maths suggest the RNZN could crew four of the newer frigates. Of course, I suspect they can't fully crew both current frigates,

I suspect you are correct. It doesn't sound like a lot but remember the RNZN is only about 2200 personnel and they have to support not only the frigates but also Offshore and Inshore patrol vessels (2 each) plus support ships (another 2) + aircrew and supporting staff as well as other land based roles of various types. Numbers quickly get consumed.

but maybe two Mogamis deployable at one time is feasible? With a third working up and a fourth in deep maintenance.

Having ships working up still require staff. Even those in maintenance require people typically.

This seems very optimistic from a capital procurement budget perspective, however.

Indeed. The RNZN Budget is not big (NZ$670 to NZ$715 million annually) and in the coming years not only do they plan on the new replacement frigates but also new patrol vessels and new helicopters.

If I were advising them, and they wanted to increase capability, I would suggest looking at the drone options (air/surface/subsurface) especially some of the larger, long endurance types being developed. But while that might save on the people part of the equation the dollars will still be an issue.

 

[H_K]

maybe two Mogamis deployable at one time is feasible? With a third working up and a fourth in deep maintenance.

I would make double crewing part of the competitive evaluation. Not sure how the Mogamis would fare, but the French FREMMs have proven that this model can work quite well.

With 2 frigates that would mean 1 double crewed at high readiness and 1 single crewed at normal readiness / in maintenance. With 3 frigates that would mean 2 double crewed and 1 single crewed. Total 2 frigates/3 crews or 3 frigates/5 crews.

 

[DJK]

Ah, but does the RNZN have the staff to crew these (and do other things)?

No. But some crew would be freed up when ANZACs decommission. There would have to be an effort on personnel retention and recruitment. Like a lot of other navies.

 

[kqcke for you]

Atleast 3 ships seems likely

 

[Brett Davidson]

No mention of the next frigates but a bit of context on policy. It's been mentioned elsewhere that the NZDF will make its recommendation for the next generation of frigates late this year or early 2027 and the government will then decide. Between now and then there's a general election, but I don't expect that whatever emerges as the governing coalition will make fundamental changes.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politica...vestment-for-ageing-maritime-fleet-and-drones

Quothe the Minister: However, recent events have served as a reminder of how quickly disruptions to international shipping routes can affect economies and supply chains across the globe. The oceans are not a barrier to danger, but a vital national interest that must be actively secured.

More, looking in some detail at the political issues and NZ's military role in the Pacific.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/595989/pacific-concerns-about-militarisation-and-nz-s-role-in-it

Why we need blue water capability:

Asked if New Zealand is contributing to militarisation of the Pacific Islands, Penk said Pacific partners had warmly welcomed the country's continued presence and partnership in the region

"The New Zealand Defence Force contributes to regional responses where it is agreed that defence force personnel and assets should be involved, including humanitarian assistance, maritime domain awareness, fisheries patrols, and search and rescue operations.

The balancing act:

Penjueli worried that the interests of the Islands countries themselves were more than ever being buried under broader geopolitical jostling.

 

[Travlla]

Agree, the question would be Japanese or Australian built with my expectation it will be Japanese built as Australian built won't make ANZAC class replacement timeframes.

Honestly i think Japanese built would be better for both NZ and Aus, Japanese built will get them quicker, be on time and budget, and probably better built, = Good for NZ, Australian built will mean the RAN gives up build slots to NZ, cost more, longer build time, = Bad for Australia and NZ

 

[Ozair]

Honestly i think Japanese built would be better for both NZ and Aus, Japanese built will get them quicker, be on time and budget, and probably better built, = Good for NZ, Australian built will mean the RAN gives up build slots to NZ, cost more, longer build time, = Bad for Australia and NZ

Agree on all counts.

 

[NMaude]

I do think we need around 5 frigates to be useful

About five decades ago the RNZN had six frigates IIRC but to get back to that level the the size of the RNZN would have to be expanded to meet the crew requirements.

 

[TomS]

Three frigates and two or three three large drones capable of towing active sonar to serve as a bistatic source would be very useful. They would need a basic self-defense capacity and possibly space for a few ASCMs or ASW standoff weapons (if NZ adopts those at all, which is far from certain).

It might be interesting if the drone vessels were acrually optionally manned so they could function independently as OPVs in peacetime. Small crew, modular sensors and weapons swapped out for supplies and even accomodations.

 

[NMaude]

The RNZN needs at least four frigates and preferably six.

 

[DJK]

The RNZN needs at least four frigates and preferably six.

4 would be unlikely but who says a government has to buy the minimum required. Historically we always went into a war unprepared.

About five decades ago the RNZN had six frigates IIRC but to get back to that level the the size of the RNZN would have to be expanded to meet the crew requirements.

We have more population than we did back then. Of course the economy is rubbish at the moment thanks to Trump. But economies can grow again, and we are stuck with whatever warships we buy now.

It might be interesting if the drone vessels were acrually optionally manned so they could function independently as OPVs in peacetime. Small crew, modular sensors and weapons swapped out for supplies and even accomodations.

OPVs do serious work in the Southern Ocean. Minimally manned vessels not gonna cut it.

 

[TomS]

OPVs do serious work in the Southern Ocean. Minimally manned vessels not gonna cut it.

I wouldn't replace the Southern Ocean OPVs, just add the ability to use the big USVs independently for low-intensity ops if desired.

 

[DJK]

I wouldn't replace the Southern Ocean OPVs, just add the ability to use the big USVs independently for low-intensity ops if desired.

We keep having this "low intensity conflict" concept, but everything is low intensity until its not. Anyway the OPVs also need to be replaced but not sure what the concept is at the moment. Would preferably have low manning I guess.

 

[TomS]

We keep having this "low intensity conflict" concept, but everything is low intensity until its not. Anyway the OPVs also need to be replaced but not sure what the concept is at the moment. Would preferably have low manning I guess.

Fair. I mostly just worry that totally unmanned platforms are going to run afoul of lots of issues, from accidental signal loss and navigational problems to deliberate jamming or even ramming/boarding. Aside from open hostilities, I'd be more comfortable with at least a token crew aboard.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Just in terms of keeping 1 hull at sea, you're going to need at least 3 commissioned ships. With good luck you can get 2 ships at sea for 5 total hulls.

But sometimes RNGesus hates you and your ships will all be stuck in port because things are broken. That's bit the UK sub force before. It's a known problem with such a small fleet. Having more like 15 commissioned frigates each with a small crew would be a lot better, but also a lot more expensive because you're shifting roles/paygrades upwards to have more officers and fewer enlisted.

I'd strongly recommend 5 frigates plus however many OPVs are needed. Probably another 5 OPVs minimum.

And then we can add the ASW USVs towing sonars.