Chinese Space Program

[TheKutKu]

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It seems this failure will be tolerated, or at least that there won't be some intense government backlash against it, this is what an article published by main state-media Xinhua says, some excerpt:

"However, the path to the peak of scientific and technological innovation is never smooth; setbacks and failures are inevitable and should be seen as opportunities to learn and correct mistakes."

"Although this test failed, fortunately, there were no casualties, and only some property damage occurred."

"From another perspective, although this incident has sparked much discussion, occasional setbacks are hard to avoid in scientific research and industrial exploration. Some criticisms on the internet may be overly harsh. If we abandon innovation due to fear of failure, many innovations might lose their breeding ground. On the contrary, believing in professional strength and creating a moderately tolerant environment might further stimulate innovative vitality."


"It is believed that, taking this incident as a warning, commercial space-related companies will be more rigorous in safety control. In the exploration of the scientific world, failures should not become "roadblocks." With enough tolerance and support, these failures could turn into "stepping stones" for moving forward together. With eyes set on the stars and the sea, nothing can stop the steps of progress."

 

[Michel Van]

Let face it the Chinese Government not care about "mishaps" either under State or private Launch provider.
So long they launch Hardware into orbit, and stick to rules: no fraud, embezzlement and corruptions.
if get catch, if lucky they get execution.
allot to those Chinese kickstarter in Launcher will go bankrupt
but the surviver can rule the Chinese Market, so long not fall victim of conspiracy
Since the State launcher will defend there market shares at any price
here depend if Chinese Government interviene in favor of private Launcher if they on SpaceX level...

 

[Flyaway]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808752625891856695

View: https://twitter.com/aj_fi/status/1808752625891856695

Xinhua responds to the Tianlong-3 incident. Seems like full steam ahead. It states safety is paramount but: "the process of climbing to top of the sci & tech industry is not a smooth journey. It is inevitable that there will be setbacks or even failures." ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw…

"We must also be given the opportunity to learn lessons and correct mistakes."

-- stifling commercial space because of one incident seemed very unlikely, given the recent strong backing from central government. But rhere's more to this & let's see how Space Pioneer isn treated

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808752631340294488

View: https://twitter.com/aj_fi/status/1808752631340294488

"Although the test failed, fortunately, there was no danger, and only some houses were damaged."

-- hmmm. As others have concluded, this fully fuelled stage could've caused a catastrophe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808677737915371981

View: https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1808677737915371981

With the leaked pic + TL-3 launch release mechanism patent. I don't think they didn't run simulations with the engine bay when launching & static fire. One thing they didn't have is the vibration data. So IMO may be vibration helped to cut the hook points off like a bone saw.

 

[Archibald]

Quick list of Chinese "Falcon-like" next generation medium and heavy launchers:

Government projects: these are serious, sanctioned projects by the CASC, the traditional missile/launcher-making SOE with over 50 years of experience, which launches 50 rockets a year, including manned launches, these are as certain as Vulcan, H3 or Ariane 6 were certain, if not more.
SNIP

How do you keep track ? Thanks for the detailed summary. China has tons and tons of money, a powerful rocket industry backed by the government and military, and a colossal number of talented rocket scientists. And obviously, they are not incumbered by things like a democratic parliament, a balanced budget, or human rights. When they say "we GO" they "GO", whatever the cost.

If SpaceX Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and SH-Starship are the new space paradigm, you can bet that the PRC will throw at his space industry whatever money, human resources, and engineering needed to get similar vehicles ASAP.

"Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead !"

 

[TheKutKu]

won

How do you keep track ? Thanks for the detailed summary. China has tons and tons of money, a powerful rocket industry backed by the government and military, and a colossal number of rocket scientists. And obviously, they are not incumbered by things like a democratic parliament, a balanced budget, or human rights. When they say "we GO" they "GO", whatever the cost.

If SpaceX Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and SH-Starship are the new space paradigm, you can bet that the PRC will throw at his space industry whatever money, human resources, and engineering needed to get similar vehicles ASAP.

"Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead !"

Keeping track of the flashy launchers is easy, keeping track of the satellite industry, especially beyond the few major naviguation observation and LEO Internet constellation, is much harder.

@Closertospace on twitter made a non-exhaustive chart of the Public chinese space sector... And beside that, he could count 51 private chinese companies currently operating satellites.



Preliminary work on a "chinese starship" has definitely been ongoing, with the main project being the CZ-9 (for the lunar program) by CALT, who announced some progress (hot fire of their FFSC engine, 10.6m diameter tank prototype) a few months ago, and a few other organisations (such as SAST and Landspace) have also announced interest/early work on such a heavy launcher.

But I think there's a general awareness not to skip steps and that the "Falcon 9/Heavy copies" are sufficient for the near term Lunar Project and constellation deployment. After all, that's also all that Starship will be doing in the near term... And maybe some large station deployment and mars sample return, but the Chinese already have their plans for that (Tiangong's extension plan and Tianwen 3).

And well, there's also that point-to-point military cargo use of Starship that the USAF is interested in, this is one thing that could cause a kneejerk reaction from the chinese into rushing an equivalent, not unlike Buran for the soviet, but we're not yet sure how serious the USAF is about this, the announced funding do not cut it so far.
Curiously a few of the chinese launch startup are also interested in point to point rocket travel (notably Space Pioneer and Space Epoch)

 

[TheKutKu]

These are the stated launch goals for the two "Chinese starlink", Guowang and G60/Qianfan. Qianfan raised the equivalent of almost one billion USD in funding earlier this year and has its first launch planned on a Long march 6C for Early august.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1725626182975057962

View: https://x.com/DongFangHour/status/1725626182975057962

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808467935041651095

View: https://x.com/tphuang/status/1808467935041651095


So between the two, 2024-2025: ~850 satellites to be launched
2026-2027: ~1,650 satellites to be launched
2028-2030: ~17,650 satellites to be launched

For comparison, Amazon's kuiper need to launch 1,618 satellites by July 2026, so we're looking at a roughly comparable (or slightly smaller) launch campaign for the next few years.
And also for comparison, SpaceX launched about 1,850 Starlink v2 Mini over the past year (+about 40 Starshield)

Worth noting that at least G60/Qianfan's satellites are smaller than the Starlink v2 Mini, and closer in size to the earlier Starlink: Looking at the CZ-6A's capabilities (4.5 to SSO, probably a bit higher to a Starlink altitude and inclination) and the upcoming batch of 18 satellites, they likely are no more than 250kg per satellite (vs ~730 kg for a Starlink v2 mini, and 260 kg for an early Starlink),

G60/Qianfan still represents as much as 3000-3750 tons to launch over the next 6 years and a half. Including about a thousand tons per year from 2028 to 2030 included. For comparison, from Q2 2023 to Q1 2024, SpaceX launched 1,406 tons to orbit (mostly starlink, so skewed toward LEO and full capacity), while China launched 140 tons to orbit (mix of various orbits, not always to full capacity, this number could probably be doubled with the same launchers if they did and were launched to LEO*).

A roughly 10x launch mass ramp up is needed to launch these constellations, a challenge, but it's also not much more than what SpaceX is currently launching, so it looks achievable with "F9 copies"", as long as they are both numerous enough and matured.

EDIT:* Quickly estimated: The cumulative LEO launch capability (number of launches * payload to LEO of launcher) over that period is about 360 tons for Chinese launches, and about 2,100 tons for SpaceX)

 

[NMaude]

This is the dumbest rocket failure since July 2, 2013, when a Proton rocket decided to fly like an idiot and went KABBOOOOM thereafters.

Emphasis on those two words as IIRC the Proton rocket crashed due to an idiot technician who insisted on inserting the IMU's accelerometers the wrong way around despite it being designed (Including "Insert this way" arrows on them) to be inserted one way only. Hopefully the witless fool not only lost his job was jailed for criminal incompetence resulting in the destruction of a multi-million dollar rocket and its' payload.

 

[Josh_TN]

Keeping track of the flashy launchers is easy, keeping track of the satellite industry, especially beyond the few major naviguation observation and LEO Internet constellation, is much harder.

@Closertospace on twitter made a non-exhaustive chart of the Public chinese space sector... And beside that, he could count 51 private chinese companies currently operating satellites.

View attachment 733658

Preliminary work on a "chinese starship" has definitely been ongoing, with the main project being the CZ-9 (aimed at the lunar program) by CALT, who announced some progress (hot fire of their FFSC engine, 10.6m diameter tank prototype) a few months ago, and a few other organisations (such as SAST and Landspace) have also announced interest/early work on such a heavy launcher.

But I think there's a general realisation not to skip steps and that the "Falcon 9/Heavy copies" are sufficient for the near term Lunar Project and constellation deployment. After all, that's also all that Starship will be doing in the near term... And maybe some large station deployment and mars sample return, but the Chinese already have their plans for that (Tiangong's extension plan and Tianwen 3).

And well, there's also that point-to-point military cargo use of Starship that the USAF is interested in, this is one thing that could cause a kneejerk reaction from the chinese into rushing an equivalent, not unlike Buran for the soviet, but we're not yet sure how serious the USAF is about this, the announced funding do not cut it so far.
Curiously a few of the chinese launch startup are also interested in point to point rocket travel (notably Space Pioneer and Space Epoch)

Fantastic post. Something I’ve been very curious about.

 

[Josh_TN]

Emphasis on those two words as IIRC the Proton rocket crashed due to an idiot technician who insisted on inserting the IMU's accelerometers the wrong way around despite it being designed (Including "Insert this way" arrows on them) to be inserted one way only. Hopefully the witless fool not only lost his job was jailed for criminal incompetence resulting in the destruction of a multi-million dollar rocket and its' payload.

Well to be fair, a TItan II once blew a ten megaton warhead into the air because someone dropped a wrench…

 

[NMaude]

Well to be fair, a TItan II once blew a ten megaton warhead into the air because someone dropped a wrench…

Firstly, nine megaton warhead, secondly that was an accident, the incident with the Proton rocket was wilful incompetence.

 

[Michel Van]

This is the dumbest rocket failure since July 2, 2013, when a Proton rocket decided to fly like an idiot and went KABBOOOOM thereafters.

USA: hold my beer...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PS6z9P9nqs

 

[publiusr]

@Closertospace on twitter made a non-exhaustive chart of the Public chinese space sector...

View attachment 733658

Preliminary work on a "chinese starship" has definitely been ongoing, with the main project being the CZ-9 (for the lunar program) by CALT, who announced some progress (hot fire of their FFSC engine, 10.6m diameter tank prototype) a few months ago, and a few other organisations (such as SAST and Landspace) have also announced interest/early work on such a heavy launcher.

And well, there's also that point-to-point military cargo use of Starship that the USAF is interested in...

Now I thought what hobbled the Soviet Moon Program was all the competing Chief Designers--each pushing for their own bureau to come out on top.

Is China just pushing for overall spaceflight competency with this many players?

We have football teams--they have engineering teams to raise excitement levels...

 

[snne]

Now I thought what hobbled the Soviet Moon Program was all the competing Chief Designers--each pushing for their own bureau to come out on top.

Is China just pushing for overall spaceflight competency with this many players?

We have football teams--they have engineering teams to raise excitement levels...

The space venture competition is rather a lot similar to the EV Competition in China than to the Soviet design bureaus.

Moreover, there's a huge commercial sat market in China that is projected to grow at incredible rates and the state owned launchers won't even be able to keep up with CNSA & PLASSF owned payloads.

I don't know if you've been following it closely, but a lot of sat factories with 300-1000 per year capacities started popping up all around the country.

Even SpaceX alone would not be able to keep up with this demand.

 

[Michel Van]

Well to be fair, a TItan II once blew a ten megaton warhead into the air because someone dropped a wrench…

The Titan II had also idiotic failure in 1960s the launch of "lobotomy rocket"
the N-7 test was first launch Titan II from underground Silo on 10 january 1963
However the umbilical cable instead deconnect, they ripp the plugs and Cables out the ICBM structure during lift-off !
This disable the entire electronic of Titan II who fly uncontrollable into sky who failed at 18000 ft.

The Error was in design one rings was to stiff for easy deconnect, it was way replaced better one, problem solved.

 

[Michel Van]

Preliminary work on a "chinese starship" has definitely been ongoing, with the main project being the CZ-9 (for the lunar program) by CALT,

Original CZ-9 was analog of Saturn V a 3 stage heavy lift rocket to bring Chinese to Moon or Mars
but with certain success in USA by certain Elon Musk, things start to change
CZ-9 already under review began to change into Chinese version of Starship
this brought delays in Program since technician restart from zero to meet the demands "build it like Starship"

That would explain why CMSA went with CZ-10G a Falcon Heavy analog for there Manned lunar program

Next to that is change in Launch rocket going on. CMSA goes from Hypergolic of Older CZ models to kerolox/hydrolox engiens.
special with CZ-10 what will replace the CZ-2F for Manned Launches and Cargo flights to Tiangong space station
and also retirement of the Shenzhou space craft by new Capsule Mengzhou

 

[NMaude]

Original CZ-9 was analog of Saturn V

I would've liked to have seen that, did it look anything like the Saturn V?

 

[snne]

I would've liked to have seen that, did it look anything like the Saturn V?

 

[BlueAbyssal]

The space venture competition is rather a lot similar to the EV Competition in China than to the Soviet design bureaus.

Moreover, there's a huge commercial sat market in China that is projected to grow at incredible rates and the state owned launchers won't even be able to keep up with CNSA & PLASSF owned payloads.

I don't know if you've been following it closely, but a lot of sat factories with 300-1000 per year capacities started popping up all around the country.

Even SpaceX alone would not be able to keep up with this demand.

On that note, will it turn out similar to Chinese EVs, where so many have been dumped into landfills after a short period, and numerous companies are struggling while a handful do well?

 

[publiusr]

I would've liked to have seen that, did it look anything like the Saturn V?

That's what they should have stuck with.

I think they could have perfected Glushko's RD-270---nine of those and they could have had a Moon rocket a decade or two back--had they stuck with all-hypergolics.

They have no fear of them.

They wanted LV propellant diversification--and it became a distraction. In the West, solid recipes were perfected while Russia kept the lead on liquid fueled engines.

China wants that broad technical base.

I think China could have been on the Moon already had there been a strong man type Chief Designer--but would that be possible culturally?

In Japan there is a saying that "the nail that stands out will be hammered down."

That goes for double on the mainland, I imagine.

 

[SK2]

There is only one Chief Designer, one, Chief Designer

 

[Archibald]

The space venture competition is rather a lot similar to the EV Competition in China than to the Soviet design bureaus.

Moreover, there's a huge commercial sat market in China that is projected to grow at incredible rates and the state owned launchers won't even be able to keep up with CNSA & PLASSF owned payloads.

I don't know if you've been following it closely, but a lot of sat factories with 300-1000 per year capacities started popping up all around the country.

Even SpaceX alone would not be able to keep up with this demand.

TBH: I didn't. Probably discouraged by their opacity and the lack of valuable sources.
You have any source for that ? Sweet geez, if the Chinese start launching "Starlink's 42 000 sats" multiplied by five or sixth companies... the sky will soon get overcrowded !

 

[snne]

TBH: I didn't. Probably discouraged by their opacity and the lack of valuable sources.
You have any source for that ? Sweet geez, if the Chinese start launching "Starlink's 42 000 sats" multiplied by five or sixth companies... the sky will soon get overcrowded !

Here are just some of the news I could find from a very basic googling, I usually follow sinodef for "China Space News".

The quotations are from a bunch of different sources I could find.

tphuang's Twitter acc. is overall great for following China's auto, green tech and space industry capacity.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787171017825173581

View: https://x.com/tphuang/status/1787171017825173581

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764657399409844318

View: https://x.com/tphuang/status/1764657399409844318

The Hainan satellite super factory project at the Wenchang International Space City Administration is in its final demonstration stage after five months of preparation. The project involves over 30 leading experts in the sector.

“Those who engaged in the discussion were predominantly esteemed experts specialized in the commercial spaceflight sector. They debated on topics such as building super factories, production lines, manufacturing, and conventional satellites, as well as what should we do to guarantee the completion of launch missions on a large scale in the future,” said Zhang Chenghao, director of the Institutional Innovation Department of the Wenchang International Space City Administration.

A satellite super factory is a large-scale manufacturing facility designed for mass production of satellites, similar to the automotive industry’s production approach. According to experts, this model is expected to drive down costs and increase the quantity of satellites manufactured.

“This factory is different from those developing satellites in the past. It is mainly characterized by batch production. Its annual output can reach around 1,000 satellites,” said Liu Botao, chief engineer of fixed assets construction from the Beijing Institute of Satellite Environmental Engineering.

Enter the China Satellite Network Group (CSNG), founded in 2021 with ambitions to roll out a 13,000-strong satellite constellation. Boasting a team of industry veterans from Chinese enterprises, CSNG aims to forge an integrated domestic satellite ecosystem, granting China unparalleled autonomy in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communications.

Parallel to CSNG's endeavors, the Shanghai-backed "G60 Starlink" initiative kicked off in 2023. It plans a fleet of 12,000 LEO satellites, with its manufacturing hub already up and running.

The proportion will soon change though with various Chinese companies planning their satellite internet constellations, especially the 12,922 satellites planned by the state-owned Guowang (GW) and the equally prominent G60 mega-constellation that also aims to launch about 12,000 internet satellites before 2026-2027. An estimation by AVIC Securities predicts a 15-20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for China's overall satellite communication industry between 2021-2025, with the markets for satcom equipment and satcom service reaching CNY11 billion and CNY14 billion, respectively. For satellite navigation, AVIC estimates a CAGR of 20%. As for remote sensing, a CAGR of 40% is expected, with the market size surpassing CNY30 billion in 2025.

Further cost reduction and production scale-up will be the main challenge to overcome. By 2025, for example, the city of Shanghai aims to build an industry capable of pumping out 600 commercial satellites and 50 rockets per year.

Wuxi City released new policies June 13 to foster commercial space, focusing on commercial rockets, satellite manufacturing and space applications. Attracting MinoSpace will be a boost for plans to develop a hub for advanced satellite technology and manufacturing, while also hoping for a local positive ripple effect. Liangxi District also attracted June 27 a base for another Chinese satellite unicorn, GalaxySpace.

Numerous Chinese city and provincial governments have initiated commercial space action plans, most notably Beijing and Shanghai.

The plan is backed at several levels. Commercial space was last year noted as an “industry of the future.” It was subsequently noted as a priority in a government work report for the first time in March this year.

This drive is being manifested at city and provincial levels. Shanghai has developed its own commercial space action plan.

Goals include building generation medium and large launch vehicles and intelligent terminals. It also intends to strengthen the development of integrated communications, navigation and remote sensing satellite technologies. It aims to create a space information industry worth more than 200 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) by 2025. Beijing also has its own commercial space action with measurable goals.

The expansion goes beyond launch. A satellite “super factory” is also being readied as part of the wider Wenchang International Space City project. The large-scale manufacturing facility is designed for mass production of satellites. Its annual output can reach around 1,000 satellites,” Liu Botao, chief engineer of fixed assets construction from the Beijing Institute of Satellite Environmental Engineering (BISEE), told CCTV in April. This adds to an explosion in Chinese small satellite manufacturing capacity.

The growth of commercial space activity is receiving strong promotion by China’s central and local governments.

The commercial space industry was noted as a priority in a central government work report in March as one of several strategic emerging industries to nurture. Municipal and provincial governments, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Hainan and Anhui have recently introduced policies to attract and foster commercial space companies.

Beijing aims to attract and nurture more than 100 high-tech enterprises, over 50 specialized and innovative companies, and at least five so-called unicorn companies. Shanghai’s initiative envisions the city achieving an annual output of 50 commercial rockets and 600 commercial satellites by 2025.

I could've come up with more sources if I had the time, but this is all I can do in the meanwhile.

 

[Josh_TN]

So the bottleneck appears to launchers, currently.

 

[Blitzo]

On that note, will it turn out similar to Chinese EVs, where so many have been dumped into landfills after a short period, and numerous companies are struggling while a handful do well?

The EVs you've seen put into landfills from memory were older EVs (or even non-EVs) that were purchased by taxi/rideshare companies, and the failure of rideshare companies themselves led to a couple of clickbaity but non-industry-representative images that for some reason became popular among a few Youtube channels and news sites for a while.


If the Chinese space launch industry were to actually follow the footsteps of their EV industry, it would mean a large number of companies producing a range of products that gradually consolidate into a dozen or more serious technologically competent in their own right, with one or two major leaders among them, all being able to benefit from both a broad and deep supplier and industry base that was able to both scale as well as invest in leading edge technologies.



Currently, if one is interested in the global EV scene, having only superficial understanding of one or two Chinese companies really isn't enough. One really would benefit from knowing off the top of their head, things like the full extent of BYD's portfolio (inclusive of BYD, Denza, FCB, Yangwang), Geely's portfolio (Zeekr, Volvo, Polestar), Xpeng, Nio, Li Auto, Leapmotor, GWM, various state backed players (including like SAIC and their associated MG), the various companies that Huawei are involved in, Xiaomi, among others.

If the Chinese space industry were to go along similar lines, then say for the launch industry one would need to be equally familiar with everyone from established players like CASC/CALT, and new commercial players like Landspace, Space Pioneer, Orienspace, iSpace, Galactic Energy, etc. It's yet to be seen if that will be the case and if there's enough human resourcing and sufficient balance in regulations to enable them to all emerge to fruition.

 

[Josh_TN]

I think it would be fair to say the current Chinese EV market is over saturated and likely will have a culling in the near future. Certainly EV production is far beyond the consumption needs of the PRC. EV exports will likely be problematic as numerous countries invoke tariffs to protect local industries.

The launcher industry will likely be different in that domestic demand can provide enough market even if foreign sales are low. The PRC launch capacity is being dwarfed single handedly by Falcon 9. The U.S. will have a big head start in terms of mega constellations both militarily and commercially by the time most medium lift Chinese commercial rockets come on line. And it remains to be seen how quickly any of them will be at achieving reusable launchers. To achieve satellites goals, numerous rocket production lines will be necessary, especially if many of them are initially single use.

 

[Blitzo]

I think it would be fair to say the current Chinese EV market is over saturated and likely will have a culling in the near future. Certainly EV production is far beyond the consumption needs of the PRC. EV exports will likely be problematic as numerous countries invoke tariffs to protect local industries.

The launcher industry will likely be different in that domestic demand can provide enough market even if foreign sales are low. The PRC launch capacity is being dwarfed single handedly by Falcon 9. The U.S. will have a big head start in terms of mega constellations both militarily and commercially by the time most medium lift Chinese commercial rockets come on line. And it remains to be seen how quickly any of them will be at achieving reusable launchers. To achieve satellites goals, numerous rocket production lines will be necessary, especially if many of them are initially single use.

There's going to be consolidation of the number of EV companies simply because there are too many competitors, however the absolute number of EVs manufactured is probably going to continue to increase both for domestic consumption and export in receptive markets.
There is neither oversaturation or overcapacity in absolute numbers of EVs produced. There is however insufficient consolidation.
After one or two rounds of consolidation, the remaining survivors will end up being even more competitive than they are now.


For space launch, my take on their comparison with the Chinese EV industry is meant to point out that right now there are a lot of burgeoning new commercial players, and it is yet to be seen if they will achieve the sophistication, scale and competition equivalent for the space launch industry ala what was achieved in the Chinese EV industry (which too was burgeoning and relatively primitive until the last few years when sufficient snowballing for the whole industry occurred).
If the goal is wanting China to not be able to compete with the US or SpaceX et al in terms of space launch, one should probably hope that their space launch industry doesn't go the way of their EV industry.

 

[Josh_TN]

I think it’s a steep hill to climb in terms of sophistication - F9 is after all a decade old design that the PRC is still trying to catch up with, never mind starship. But I suspect China can simply build its way to equivalency via numerous manufacturing lines, even if it technically lags behind the U.S. somewhat. I suspect the government will give business to most any company with a rocket that goes up and that there will be very little consolidation. Even the U.S. government is doing this: Vulcan, Glenn, Antares, etc. DoD in particular has zero interest in consolidation and is actively buying services from a half dozen or more vendors.

 

[Grey Havoc]

China’s dirty and dangerous race to become a space superpower

Beijing’s lax approach toward safety has done little to slow its progress in rocketry

www.telegraph.co.uk

Is China Building Spy Bases in Cuba? - Slashdot

"Images captured from space show the growth of Cuba's electronic eavesdropping stations," reported the Wall Street Journal this week, citing a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. But they added that the stations "are believed to be...

tech.slashdot.org

 

[publiusr]

Unknown surveillance post communique intercept from China’s intelligence asset in Cuba:

It rains three drops, and the lines are down—how do they expect us to work? I have to make a call—what’s this? A crank? (whirring noise)

“It’ll get fixed when it gets fixed…we do things differently here. The Russians are more fun than you lot.”

CLICK

 

[Blitzo]

I think it’s a steep hill to climb in terms of sophistication - F9 is after all a decade old design that the PRC is still trying to catch up with, never mind starship. But I suspect China can simply build its way to equivalency via numerous manufacturing lines, even if it technically lags behind the U.S. somewhat. I suspect the government will give business to most any company with a rocket that goes up and that there will be very little consolidation. Even the U.S. government is doing this: Vulcan, Glenn, Antares, etc. DoD in particular has zero interest in consolidation and is actively buying services from a half dozen or more vendors.

I mean, everyone in the world is basically trying to catch up with SpaceX, it's hardly unique to China, heck even US companies are catching up with Falcon 9.

In the short to medium term, the question is how many of the emerging Chinese commercial players (as well as the existing state companies) will be able to actually successfully develop the first generation of medium to heavy reusable launch vehicles, and to scale them appropriately.

In the medium to long term it becomes a question of how many of the aforementioned companies that do succeed are able to reinvest into heavy and super heavy reusable launchers.

 

[Flyaway]

China’s Mars sample return - planetary protection research:

China’s Mars Sample Return Program: Planetary Protection Research Detailed

www.leonarddavid.com

 

[TheKutKu]

Quick list of Chinese "Falcon-like" next generation medium and heavy launchers:

Government projects: these are serious, sanctioned projects by the CASC, the traditional missile/launcher-making SOE with over 50 years of experience, which launches 50 rockets a year, including manned launches, these are as certain as Vulcan, H3 or Ariane 6 were certain, if not more.
[...]

-CZ-12 (previously known as "XLV" or "XLV-20"), Built by SAST/"8th Academy of CASC", A medium, expendable launcher of roughly F9 1.0 dimensions dedicated to the commercial market. Largely thought to be repurposed from the R&D of SAST's attempt at a CZ-10 competitor. Tank could be seen a couple years ago, and a test of its engine bay happened in April
Diameter: 3.8m
Payload: 10t to LEO, 6t to SSO
First Stage Engines: 4xYF100K, 510 tf, Staged Combustion Kerolox
Planned first launch: Late August 2024
Launch Site: Wenchang Commercial Pad 2, compatibility with Inland launch centers.


[...]

And the first of these, Long March 12, is on its pad.




Note that this pad, Hainan's Second commercial pad, was entirely built in 20 months from a vacant lot.
Launch is planned later this summer.

 

[NMaude]

Note that this pad, Hainan's Second commercial pad

Hainan? That's mean any expended boosters and first-stages will land in the sea instead of land.

 

[Josh_TN]

Hainan? That's mean any expended boosters and first-stages will land in the sea instead of land.

I would have thought Hainan a good launch spot for those reasons all along, as well as being further south for equatorial launches.

 

[TheKutKu]

Hainan? That's mean any expended boosters and first-stages will land in the sea instead of land.

Yes, weirdly enough the commercial pads aren't named after Wenchang, it's, It's the "Hainan Commercial Launch Site" owned by the Hainan International Commercial Aerospace Launch Co Ltd

 

[cattalonX]

I would've liked to have seen that, did it look anything like the Saturn V?

No, it looks more like SLS or Ares V
This is 2011 model

This is the 2016 model


2021, it became Starship-like

 

[cattalonX]

That's what they should have stuck with.

I think they could have perfected Glushko's RD-270---nine of those and they could have had a Moon rocket a decade or two back--had they stuck with all-hypergolics.

They have no fear of them.

They wanted LV propellant diversification--and it became a distraction. In the West, solid recipes were perfected while Russia kept the lead on liquid fueled engines.

China wants that broad technical base.

I think China could have been on the Moon already had there been a strong man type Chief Designer--but would that be possible culturally?

In Japan there is a saying that "the nail that stands out will be hammered down."

That goes for double on the mainland, I imagine.

China had an unofficial plan to land on the moon in 2007，
The first plan, Apollo-type, Launch by a large rocket like the Saturn V, called the Long March 6 (not the small Long March 6 as it is now).
（Launch mass 2880 tons, first stage with 6 boosters, not even sure what engine to use）
The second plan is to launch six Long March 5
But the Chinese government doesn't want an Apollo-style moon landing

 

[Josh_TN]

Is not the current plan an Apollo style landing split between two Long March 10 rockets? By Apollo style I mean not in number and size of rockets, but rather in the size of the capsule and lander to be delivered. The Artemis plan in contrast is more to build to a permanent presence with a space station, reusable lander, etc. The latter will take far more time to completely achieve and is spread across four delivery platforms.

 

[Michel Van]

Is not the current plan an Apollo style landing split between two Long March 10 rockets?

yes that's current plan
the first CZ-10 launch the lander in Lunar orbit
the second CZ-10 a Mengzhou Capsule also to lunar orbit
both rendezvous dock and Chinese use Lander for there mission

the CZ-9 will have same role of Starship, a re-useable heavy lift rocket.
and send hardware to Moon or Mars, parts for Moonbase or Manned Mars mission

 

[Josh_TN]

yes that's current plan
the first CZ-10 launch the lander in Lunar orbit
the second CZ-10 a Mengzhou Capsule also to lunar orbit
both rendezvous dock and Chinese use Lander for there mission

the CZ-9 will have same role of Starship, a re-useable heavy lift rocket.
and send hardware to Moon or Mars, parts for Moonbase or Manned Mars mission

CZ-9 seems significantly further off than Starship, and not a part of the initial land effort. In contrast I believe Starship will be the first lander available to NASA, with the BO lander being adopted later, assuming everything sticks to the plan (perhaps a little optimistic).