Chengdu J-20 news and analysis Part III

[EmoBirb]

View attachment 784519

Absolutely stunning photo

 

[Deino]

Yep, sure glad we killed F-22 production.

I don't mean to make fun of your comment in any way, but I do think it's somewhat ironic—even though one still hears current comments from high-ranking US military and political figures—that no one wants to acknowledge the dramatic progress. In the worst case, everything is still dismissed as a cheap copy... and even though the current US types may still have an edge over their Chinese counterparts, none of the aforementioned players are even considering China's gigantic production capacities.

 

[Sferrin]

I don't mean to make fun of your comment in any way, but I do think it's somewhat ironic—even though one still hears current comments from high-ranking US military and political figures—that no one wants to acknowledge the dramatic progress. In the worst case, everything is still dismissed as a cheap copy... and even though the current US types may still have an edge over their Chinese counterparts, none of the aforementioned players are even considering China's gigantic production capacities.

One-on-one, even two on one, I'd put my money on the F-22 over the J-20 but not three or four to one. And even one-on-one an F-35 would have its hands full and then some. I don't know if it's arrogance, stupidity, or corruption in the US. I will say, having gridlock in Washington for decades at this point is not helpful.

 

[Reddington777]

comments from high-ranking US military and political figures—that no one wants to acknowledge the dramatic progress

That's to the American media and the broad public. It certainly doesn't look like the official (or even majority) opinion is still that. If you put too much weight on comments made to the media, then it's you who is conflating what is at best a matter of politics and signalling and at worst a matter of personal opinion with what decision makers actually believe.

If you look at the formal analyses of government and military agencies and those made by people who actually matter in the overall policy making / procurement, that's most definitely not the case. Hell, even media since 2015 has become increasingly the opposite of what you've said.

 

[EmoBirb]

I find it doubtful that even if F-22 production continued for a couple more years it would be a match for the J-20/J-20A/J-20S production pace, with the J-20 also being most likely a good bit cheaper as well. Similarly I'm unsure if the F-22, without major upgrades, would be able to compare to the J-20A and J-20S, which are looking to be major upgrades over the baseline with the S in particular offering, if rumors are to be believed, a whole new capability in it's dedicated drone-command function (dogging opponents not only with long range missiles but also multiple threatening UCAVs and their armaments).

But surely, if production continued further, at least one major upgrade would have been easier to implement, I assume. Given that the issues of the F-22 fleet often come down to cost and low numbers, with cost also partially stemming from low numbers. Either way, a "Super Raptor" should have been due in the late 2010s, when the F-35 and non-US stealth jets were rolled out.

 

[SspewixzzZ]

Hey !! J-20 serial number 63106 has arrived at the Changchun Air Show 2025.
View attachment 784517

can't wait to see photos of its static display at the airshow

 

[Elysium]

I doubt it, WS-15's issue is said to be supply chain related as China unlike the US does not benefit from the mature supply chains for advanced engines and hence have to build everything from scratch. Once that supply chain issue is solved, mass production of advanced aeroengines should no longer be an issue. Considering they have quite a lot of advanced engine projects coming up like WS-19, CJ-1000 and CJ-2000 before the end of this decade that will require that supply chain, I doubt that issue will remain for long.

This is just theorycrafting, but I don't think the WS-15 was seriously considered as a straight upgrade path for the J-20. According to Wikipedia, it has a bypass ratio of just 0.24, owning to likely a much larger engine core. This is much lower than any production fighter turbofan, lower even than the F-22s F119. This suggest that the WS-15 is very much not a direct successor for the WS-10. While I'm sure it'd have made the J-20 an excellent supercruiser and air superiority fighter, the entire design of that plane is centered around achieving maximum unrefueled range, and I'm sure this'd have made it worse in this respect.

My guess was that the Chinese planned either having a large fleet of J-20 with the WS-10, and a small cadre with WS-15s, which'd have filled in for the air superiority role, should the 6th gen not arrive in time. But arrive it did, making WS-15 touting 'high-end' J-20s pointless.
My guess is the WS-15 won't be used very much as it is, but its core is going to serve as a basis for a 6th gen engine, likely with a higher diameter and possibly with variable bypass or other features.

 

[Ainen]

While I'm sure it'd have made the J-20 an excellent supercruiser and air superiority fighter, the entire design of that plane is centered around achieving maximum unrefueled range, and I'm sure this'd have made it worse in this respect.

Entire design of J-20 is centered about being air superiority aircraft (everything else coming second), i.e. supersonic performance there is paramount.

It is not a flanker, which was indeed at least as much a loitering interceptor as it was air superiority.

I.e. ws-15 very much the plan, and delays with it are highly unfortunate for China.

 

[joshjosh]

Have we learned anything new about production rates by spotting this 300th J-20?

 

[Blitzo]

Have we learned anything new about production rates by spotting this 300th J-20?

Not really.

Definitively learning anything new would require us to know when this 300th J-20 was produced/delivered and when prior numbers (let's say 200th, 100th, 50th) were produced to get an estimate for annual production rate based off "identifiable serials". And also past production rates does not necessarily mean we can predict future production rates.

So there isn't too much useful except for this 300th airframe giving us a definitive, imagery-confirmed "floor" of how many J-20s have been produced, meaning our estimates of how many J-20s actually exist uses 300 as a base minimum as of present.
(And even that isn't surprising given what some of the grapevine rumours and community estimates of J-20 fleet size and recent production rates have been)

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Deleted some pointless speculation posts on J-20 costs.

 

[FighterJock]

I had thought that the WS-15 engine was supercruise capable? That is probably why there are delays to it, new engines are among the most problematic part of designing a fighter like the J-20.

 

[Elysium]

I had thought that the WS-15 engine was supercruise capable? That is probably why there are delays to it, new engines are among the most problematic part of designing a fighter like the J-20.

There's no doubt about it being a very good supercruiser as designed - the problem is the other stuff, which is inherent to how jet engines work and inherent tradeoffs in their design.
Turbofan jet engines work by ingesting a relatively constant mass flow of air, and throwing it out the back. The key to efficiency is making sure to extract the maximum amount of momentum from the minimum amount of energy, while observing a few key constraints that need to be met to ensure intended operation:

1. The air mass flow needs to be constant at the engine face - this typically means accelerating air in the intake at low speeds, giving extra thrust or slowing it down at high speeds as the natural movement of the aircraft rams more air into the intake than the engines can deal with. This leads to drag as the air both needs to be turned into a high pressure low velocity stream, and more air would enter the intake than it can deal with.
2. The exhaust pressures must be greater than the ambient to prevent backflow and the exhaust stream velocity needs to be greater than the aircraft velocity.

The turbojet core of the jet engine works by compressing the intake air, combusting it, generating a high-pressure high-velocity stream.
To achieve maximum efficiency, you need to exhaust an airstream, whose pressure is *just* bigger than ambient, and velocity is *just* larger then the aircraft speed, and also maximize the airspeed at which the intakes start to produce drag. Considering the staggering amount of design points, both in speed an air density, a modern jet fighter needs to operate at, making one that's good at all of them is a giant challenge, and in practice involves tradeoffs that favor certain conditions.

First. the core contains a series of turbinese installed in the jet engine core, which extract pressure from the stream and turn it into mechanical energy, which is used to turn a bypass fan. The fan then accelerates the bypass air just enough, without raising its pressure, making the efficiency much better This is because there's only a small pressure diff from both core and bypass streams and the exhaust velocity is just high enough to prevent backflow, and the intake starts dragging at higher speeds.

You can see this approach in modern airliners with high bypass turbofans.

However this approach starts breaking down at supersonic speeds - the bypass fan can't accelerate the air to be fast enough, you need to rely on the core's ability to produce a high-velocity stream, the bypass of the engine becomes actively harmful. This is why supercruise optimized engines have a low bypass ratio (0.24 for the WS-15 which is quite extreme, 0.3 for the F119), in contrast to 0.5-0.6 typical for fighter engines such as the F-110, AL-31, WS-10 etc.

Designing an engine core is *very* hard. taking even established players decades and untold billions in investment, however everything around it, (like the bypass fans, nozzles, reheat etc.) is a lot easier to change, so it makes sense that the engine was designed with growth potential in mind, similar to the F119->F135 upgrade, where the engine core was kept relatively intact afaik, but the bypass ratio was increased.

Since you can't change the core, and can't change the bypass in the J-20 as that would physically increase the engine diameter, you end up with something that's really not ideal imo for that airframe.

Of course you claw back some of the efficiency loss thanks to the fact that these new cores operate at higher temps and thus pressures, which leads to increased thermodynamic efficiency, but I'd wager the whole thing ends up being a net loss at transonic speeds (the F-119 has a higher ratio and is still less efficient than the F-110).

Entire design of J-20 is centered about being air superiority aircraft

I remember an article by Yang Wei (the) posted here where he outlined that the mission of the J-20 is to control the South China Sea, and for that enormous range is needed (the stated combat range of the J-20 is more than double that of the F-22). He described this as the primary goal of the design (as well as VLO), while he stated the flight characteristics should be not worse than existing 4th gen types.
To be fair considering it's basically an interceptor, trading speed for propulsive efficiency *might* be justified, but I think the WS-10 equipped models are going to coexist and still be the majority, even in new builds.
Also the J-20 won't stay the high-end of the Chinese lineup for long.

 

[Tomboy]

I had thought that the WS-15 engine was supercruise capable? That is probably why there are delays to it, new engines are among the most problematic part of designing a fighter like the J-20.

WS-10C is already supercruise capable. WS-15 was completely overhauled atleast once during late 2010s due to advancing domestic technology made previous performance targets obsolete.

 

[coanda]

That is IF there is actually 300 made (even if there are 10 aircraft per squadron thats 30 squadrons...).

How do we know that the marking on the airshow aircraft isn't deliberately inflated? Should we really take these numbers at face value when placed in the public eye?

 

[SUPER=BUG]

It has been 14 years since 2011, and during this time, building 300 J-20s is not difficult for China as an industrial nation.

 

[EmoBirb]

That is IF there is actually 300 made (even if there are 10 aircraft per squadron thats 30 squadrons...).

How do we know that the marking on the airshow aircraft isn't deliberately inflated? Should we really take these numbers at face value when placed in the public eye?

If there is one thing anyone should be sure of, it's that whatever it is, China can produce it in numbers. It is to be expected from the industrial powerhouse of the world really. Also, the J-20 started production a couple years ago and China is economically stable and modernizing their air force. All of these factors should point towards large production numbers.

 

[Deino]

That is IF there is actually 300 made (even if there are 10 aircraft per squadron thats 30 squadrons...).

How do we know that the marking on the airshow aircraft isn't deliberately inflated? Should we really take these numbers at face value when placed in the public eye?

Well, of course, I could simply claim it's all a lie, and of course, J-20 units only have 10 aircraft each... but one could also assume—based on years of observations of J-10, J-11, J-15, and J-15, where no suspicion of fake construction numbers ever arose, where hundreds of photos were available, and where—if not all—at least enough aircraft have been individually confirmed—that the most logical explanation is that it's true!

And about the J-20... instead of coming up with crazy theories about 30 squadrons of 10 aircraft each, one could better just check the number of confirmed brigades (1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 19, 41, 55, 56, 97, 111, 172 & 176) - that alone shows your ignorance - and then add up the number of confirmed aircraft or assume the highest known number... and then you quickly get to over 300 aircraft.

 

[coanda]

Great, I love all the laughing - I laugh at a lot of posts here too, especially by so called experts.

Right, so, I am not an expert on PLAAF organisation, but I am an aerospace engineer of 20+ years experience and I know exactly how hard it is to make an aircraft at any scale. A crazy theory was a suggestion...great insults.

So, no proof of 300 aircraft, just trust me bro, they definitely wouldn't paint a number on an easily removeable panel to screw with people. Thanks, thats what I needed to know.

 

[SspewixzzZ]

Well, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".
If you want to prove that is false, then you should provide your evidence — after all, you can't expect the PLAAF to give an exact answer to this question. If we simply rely on stereotypes for speculation, I'm afraid this thread might turn into a giant military conspiracy theory on reddit.

By the way, over a thousand F-35s have been produced since 2011, and even if we count the J-20 only from its first show up at 2016 airshow, it's been nearly a decade — ten years is enough to change many things.
Damn, time really flies.

 

[DWG]

Right, so, I am not an expert on PLAAF organisation, but I am an aerospace engineer of 20+ years experience

Hard to find a thread here without half a dozen of us. While experts on PLAAF are much rarer. And one thing engineering teaches us is to always defer to the guy with the domain specific knowledge.

and I know exactly how hard it is to make an aircraft at any scale.

So J-20 has been in service since 2018, 8 years, coming up on 9. 300 aircraft implies an annual production rate of under 40. That's trivial, F-35 is running somewhere around 150. There's absolutely no question on engineering grounds that China is capable of a 40 aircraft a year production rate.

So, no proof of 300 aircraft,

Well, if you can't actually recognise the proof when it's offered to you....

 

[SspewixzzZ]

If the production version of the J-20 variants indeed abandons the shimmering silver coating of older ones in favor of the black scheme seen on parade aircraft (though I don't dislike it), I would feel a sense of loss. There's a famous Chinese line of poetry: "A silver saddle illuminates a white steed, swift as a meteor shower"— it perfectly captures the essence of this fighter renowned for its speed.
Anyway, I simply can't wait to see those exquisite photos of this beauty in static display at the Changchun Airshow. It's truly a pity that work prevent me from seeing it with my own eyes.

 

[coanda]

Well, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".
If you want to prove that is false, then you should provide your evidence — after all, you can't expect the PLAAF to give an exact answer to this question. If we simply rely on stereotypes for speculation, I'm afraid this thread might turn into a giant military conspiracy theory on reddit.

By the way, over a thousand F-35s have been produced since 2011, and even if we count the J-20 only from its first show up at 2016 airshow, it's been nearly a decade — ten years is enough to change many things.
Damn, time really flies.

I haven't made a claim, I asked a question.

 

[coanda]

Hard to find a thread here without half a dozen of us. While experts on PLAAF are much rarer. And one thing engineering teaches us is to always defer to the guy with the domain specific knowledge.



So J-20 has been in service since 2018, 8 years, coming up on 9. 300 aircraft implies an annual production rate of under 40. That's trivial, F-35 is running somewhere around 150. There's absolutely no question on engineering grounds that China is capable of a 40 aircraft a year production rate.



Well, if you can't actually recognise the proof when it's offered to you....

Trust to defer is earned. I, personally, haven't seen that and no engineer should just accept what you're told. Something you sould have learnt as an engineer before 'deferring to the domain expert'. Asking questions, and there are no stupid questions, is another key engineering skill.

For 8 years there has not been a photo of J20s on the ground or in flight that numbers more than 10, according to my search. There is also not another photo I can find on the open internet that shows a batch and production number.

The evidence is not its been around for 8 years, so there must be 300, the evidence is, here's a list of tail numbers, here's photos at the bases that shows 24 shelters with J20 noses sticking out, or here's victory parade flypasts in big Vs or some other relevant symbol etc.

I looked for evidence of production numbers or assessments from credible organisations on the open internet for production rate and I can't find a single one. Its just Ouroboros like 'news site' articles going around in circles across sites - all of which have a strong whiff of paid media.

 

[Ainen]

I remember an article by Yang Wei (the) posted here where he outlined that the mission of the J-20 is to control the South China Sea, and for that enormous range is needed (the stated combat range of the J-20 is more than double that of the F-22). He described this as the primary goal of the design (as well as VLO), while he stated the flight characteristics should be not worse than existing 4th gen types.
To be fair considering it's basically an interceptor, trading speed for propulsive efficiency *might* be justified, but I think the WS-10 equipped models are going to coexist and still be the majority, even in new builds.
Also the J-20 won't stay the high-end of the Chinese lineup for long.

Article priorities should be measured v. visible performance and procurement. Simple truth is that J-20 is procured in parallel with flankers, despite its obvious superiority. J-20 is meant to carry drop tanks as range extenders, 4 of them. Should it get extreme range unrefuelled (as an actual stealth aircraft), that wouldn't be the case - and as large as China is, there's no Russia-sized excuse in this case.
(also, combat range was never stated officially).

It isn't an interceptor. Like i don't know how long it will persist, it's a high agility design with WVR bays - and either Chinese MIC was so utterly uncoordinated to specify 4.2m limit for their VLRAAM, or perhaps another aircraft does the intercept mission.

Also the J-20 won't stay the high-end of the Chinese lineup for long.

While Chinese MIC doesn't really leave much room for doubt recently, i'd still argue for caution.
Best time to count chickens is after they hatch.

WS-10C is already supercruise capable.

Very debatable if CFM-56-based core with significant bypass will truly do; it just wasn't meant to. I.e. it probably can bruteforce M=1 and persist at low mach, but effective supercruise is a different thing. And that's why WS-15 is being pursued for so long.

 

[DWG]

Trust to defer is earned. I, personally, haven't seen that and no engineer should just accept what you're told. Something you sould have learnt as an engineer before 'deferring to the domain expert'. Asking questions, and there are no stupid questions, is another key engineering skill.

I'm actually speaking on that from both sides of the conversation, outside of aerospace having seen far too many non-disabled engineers refusing to listen to the lived experience of actual disabled people. Inability, or refusal, to recognise domain expertise is not an admirable engineering trait.

For 8 years there has not been a photo of J20s on the ground or in flight that numbers more than 10, according to my search. There is also not another photo I can find on the open internet that shows a batch and production number.

How many photos of F-35s show more than 40* in the air or on the ground? Yet I presume you accept there are 1150 (and rising) in service?

* Pro-rata with 10 for 300 J-35s.

I looked for evidence of production numbers or assessments from credible organisations on the open internet for production rate and I can't find a single one. Its just Ouroboros like 'news site' articles going around in circles across sites - all of which have a strong whiff of paid media.

https://www.iiss.org/publications/s...-regional-security-assessment-2024/chapter-6/
It took me literally 30 seconds to find: "In 2014 the PLAAF had yet to field its first low-observable fighter aircraft; by the end of 2023, it had an estimated 200 Chengdu J-20 multi-role fighter aircraft."

 

[SspewixzzZ]

after all, you can't expect the PLAAF to give an exact answer to this question.

I have already answered. Almost all information you can find about PLA equipment deployment is based on speculation and official news.

 

[Nx4eu]

I'm actually speaking on that from both sides of the conversation, outside of aerospace having seen far too many non-disabled engineers refusing to listen to the lived experience of actual disabled people. Inability, or refusal, to recognise domain expertise is not an admirable engineering trait.



How many photos of F-35s show more than 40* in the air or on the ground? Yet I presume you accept there are 1150 (and rising) in service?

* Pro-rata with 10 for 300 J-35s.



https://www.iiss.org/publications/s...-regional-security-assessment-2024/chapter-6/
It took me literally 30 seconds to find: "In 2014 the PLAAF had yet to field its first low-observable fighter aircraft; by the end of 2023, it had an estimated 200 Chengdu J-20 multi-role fighter aircraft."

There was an elephant walk with 52 F-35's present, with that I conclude that the USAF only operates 52 F-35's and have just been swapping number paints on em.

 

[Nx4eu]

Trust to defer is earned. I, personally, haven't seen that and no engineer should just accept what you're told. Something you sould have learnt as an engineer before 'deferring to the domain expert'. Asking questions, and there are no stupid questions, is another key engineering skill.

For 8 years there has not been a photo of J20s on the ground or in flight that numbers more than 10, according to my search. There is also not another photo I can find on the open internet that shows a batch and production number.

The evidence is not its been around for 8 years, so there must be 300, the evidence is, here's a list of tail numbers, here's photos at the bases that shows 24 shelters with J20 noses sticking out, or here's victory parade flypasts in big Vs or some other relevant symbol etc.

I looked for evidence of production numbers or assessments from credible organisations on the open internet for production rate and I can't find a single one. Its just Ouroboros like 'news site' articles going around in circles across sites - all of which have a strong whiff of paid media.

Well you must've had a very short search for those past 8 years.

There are multiple photo's showing 15 J-20's performing an elephant walk on the runway.





Add on the 5 new black J-20A/S's we've seen parked in those newer picture. I must conclude there are 20 J-20's in service versus 52 F-35's! China seems to be catching up quite quickly I must say...

 

[Nx4eu]

Why are we still talking about the J-20 and the WS-15 in the F-35 thread. We should move this to the J-20 thread where the well experienced aerospace engineer of 20+ years believes there are only 10 or so Aircraft and China is merely swapping number plates on them.

Anyways there was this graph that is supposedly representative of a "key military engine model" performance and flight envelope. Note the lack of detail, it is meant again for illustrative purposes only, Thus no data leak.

 

[Deino]

Trust to defer is earned. I, personally, haven't seen that and no engineer should just accept what you're told. Something you sould have learnt as an engineer before 'deferring to the domain expert'. Asking questions, and there are no stupid questions, is another key engineering skill.

For 8 years there has not been a photo of J20s on the ground or in flight that numbers more than 10, according to my search. There is also not another photo I can find on the open internet that shows a batch and production number.

The evidence is not its been around for 8 years, so there must be 300, the evidence is, here's a list of tail numbers, here's photos at the bases that shows 24 shelters with J20 noses sticking out, or here's victory parade flypasts in big Vs or some other relevant symbol etc.

I looked for evidence of production numbers or assessments from credible organisations on the open internet for production rate and I can't find a single one. Its just Ouroboros like 'news site' articles going around in circles across sites - all of which have a strong whiff of paid media.

I have to admit, I'm finding it difficult to stay calm right now ... I've been in the business and this forum for decades, I know quite well and identify the problems & issues surrounding China & hard data, and I'm trying to resolve them with professional arguments to get as close to the facts as possible, and then someone comes along with less than 50 posts and demonstrates within a few lines that

a) one has no understanding of the matter (which isn't a bad thing), but
b) still has the arrogance to brush aside or ignore all arguments because he's "better"! In fact you are not interested in facts, you only want to read what we all know: There is no hard data available!

My God, wake up... neither the PLAFF nor CAC will release the production documents to you just to prove to you—because you're an engineer—...

And to your reply above: Just a little search and within a few seconds you could have find it, if you wanted! ... but yes, you are not making claims, you are only asking questions and in fact silly ones - alone this idea of "10 aircraft per squadron thats 30 squadrons" tells a lot.

What a joke ... 30 aircraft per year is NOTHING for China and if you would be indeed a good engineer, you would know this.

Therefore finally: yes again, not only "trust is earned", but even more so "credibility" ... as such it will be hard for you to earn this after refusing any argument against your "questions", in fact even refusing to do some proper research on your own and instead playing the one with better understanding since you are "an engineer"!

Good luck with gaining back your reputation and credibility if you are indeed interested in facts!

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

The general consensus was at least 195-200 J-20 built by mid 2024. Rumours suggest J-20 production rate increasing from 70 a year to 100 a year around that time, meaning 300 by mid 2025 is consistent with expectations, and broadly matches observed deployments.

Not sure why China repainting and flying a small fleet of J-20s around the country trying to deceive Western observers.is more likely than them just building more.

 

[EmoBirb]

Quite ironically, it would be more likely that there are far more than 300 individual aircraft rather than less. At least China just churns them out and one can catch numbers and markings here and there and work with it from there on, as an avid PLA watcher like our beloved Deino for example does. Or many of the other PLA watchers who sacrifice their free time to make PLA developments more tangible and less opaque for us "other people" by scouring through Chinese publications, satellite images, modernization plans, press releases and what not.

And from an engineering point of view, as I and others already said, China has shown in other examples that they're more than capable of delivering high output of high quality military equipment. Why should the J-20 be different? Especially as the J-20 is the pet project of the PLAAF and in many ways a symbol for the PLA of the 21st century. One would assume they poured untold amounts of money not only into it's development but also into the set up and subsequent expansion of production facilities. And these are most likely pretty state of the art and highly automated, China is after all the (now everyone together) production hub of the world!

Furthermore, the F-22 had an annual production of what? Less than 30 jets annually? The Su-57 is produced at a rate of 10-12 jets annually on the current production line by Russia. I don't see a reason why the massively investing, massively industrialized and eager China, willing to bring their PLAAF into the very top tier of the world's air forces, couldn't be able to produce +300 J-20s from production start until now. Have you taken a look at their shipyards? Their output across all domains is scary and I find little reason to doubt it personally.

 

[snne]

Quite ironically, it would be more likely that there are far more than 300 individual aircraft rather than less. At least China just churns them out and one can catch numbers and markings here and there and work with it from there on, as an avid PLA watcher like our beloved Deino for example does. Or many of the other PLA watchers who sacrifice their free time to make PLA developments more tangible and less opaque for us "other people" by scouring through Chinese publications, satellite images, modernization plans, press releases and what not.

And from an engineering point of view, as I and others already said, China has shown in other examples that they're more than capable of delivering high output of high quality military equipment. Why should the J-20 be different? Especially as the J-20 is the pet project of the PLAAF and in many ways a symbol for the PLA of the 21st century. One would assume they poured untold amounts of money not only into it's development but also into the set up and subsequent expansion of production facilities. And these are most likely pretty state of the art and highly automated, China is after all the (now everyone together) production hub of the world!

Furthermore, the F-22 had an annual production of what? Less than 20 jets annually? The Su-57 is produced at a rate of 10-12 jets annually on the current production line by Russia. I don't see a reason why the massively investing, massively industrialized and eager China, willing to bring their PLAAF into the very top tier of the world's air forces, couldn't be able to produce +300 J-20s from production start until now. Have you taken a look at there shipyards? Their output across all domains is scary and I find little reason to doubt it personally.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't our official guesstimate over 350 by Q3 2024, and 420-450 airframes by now? AFAICR, from memory, around 50 airframes were estimated to be produced in 2022, and ~70 in 2023.

It's been a couple of months since I last kept track, but annual production has risen to more or less around 100 aircraft per year about a year and a half ago. I haven’t had the opportunity to visit SinoDef often lately, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

@Nx4eu , @Blitzo , @siegecrossbow , @Deino , @SUPER=BUG , et al. (whom I forgot to tag)

Edit: And also, the U.S. military typically procures ~75-85 F-35s per year across the USAF, USMC, and USN. By comparison, the annual procurement of the J-20 by the PLAAF alone exceeds that figure.

Add to that the number of J-35/35A along with various UADF and other CCA types they are going to procure by 2030, and it seems very likely that China will surpass the entire U.S. military’s fleet of LO platforms by the end of this decade.

As with many things China typically does, they first build their industrial might and then rapidly adopt it on an unprecedented scale...

 

[lancer21]

Well, from what i can gather from the forums, some say the number must be closer to 400 by now, though averaging that over 8 years is probably misleading, production gradually started going up first in the low tens, then high tens at least to get to this figure. There is also suggestions that the production has slowed down a bit while it transitions to the new J-20A and S, but then it will gradually pick-up again. Another conservative own guesstimate of 300-400 J-20A/S might be produced by 2030, giving PLAAF a force of at least 700-800 J-20s by then, a formidable force by any measure.

Coupling this with a fairly similar number of J-35s in the same timeframe, say guesstimating another 400-500, and we have a force of 1200 or so 5th gen stealth fighters by that time. Of course, it is highly likely production will continue well into the 2030s for both, especially J-35, but probably in gradually decreasing numbers as J-36 and J-50 production in turn gradually picks up. Still, possibly as many as 1000 J-20s might be built in total, alongside a similar or even higher number of J-35s, Plus of course there will likely at least many hundreds if not thousand plus of Type A/B UADFs being produced as well. So imo this is what likely the future of PLAAF high-end fighter forces might look like into the next decade.

 

[snne]

Well, from what i can gather from the forums, some say the number must be closer to 400 by now, though averaging that over 8 years is probably misleading, production gradually started going up first in the low tens, then high tens at least to get to this figure. There is also suggestions that the production has slowed down a bit while it transitions to the new J-20A and S, but then it will gradually pick-up again. Another conservative own guesstimate of 300-400 J-20A/S might be produced by 2030, giving PLAAF a force of at least 700-800 J-20s by then, a formidable force by any measure.

Yeah, thanks for reminding me. I remember reading about that. They've also transitioned to the J-20A and J-20S, so production is likely going to ramp up again sooner than expected.

I'd say our conservative guesstimate is at least 400 airframes by now, considering we were at around 320-350 airframes roughly a year ago.

 

[EmoBirb]

Still, possibly as many as 1000 J-20s might be built in total, alongside a similar or even higher number of J-35s, Plus of course there will likely at least many hundreds if not thousand plus of Type A/B UADFs being produced as well. So imo this is what likely the future of PLAAF high-end fighter forces might look like into the next decade.

I kinda doubt the J-35 will match or even eclipse the J-20 in terms of production numbers. The J-20 has a significant lead, one would assume is favored by the PLAAF as a heavy, long range stealth fighter (with two upgrades variants now in production) and lends itself to work together with drones. While the PLANAF J-35 order will be small all things considered, enough to fill a couple flat decks. While the the J-35A has to compete against the (I'd argue) more capable J-20/J-20A, less expensive drones (the J-35 is still a sizeable twin engine stealth fighter, so probably not particularly cheap to maintain). Add to that the prospect that PLAAF and PLANAF will also introduce next generation fighters and suddenly it's looking a bit tough for the J-35, at least in PLAAF. With one or perhaps even two next generation aircraft forming the tip of the spear, supported by the vast J-20 fleet and numerous, less expensive drones. I personally suspect the J-35A will find adoption in the PLAAF in the low hundreds, perhaps 200-300 units, mostly to replace older aircraft. And I think export will play a bigger part in the future. So I don't think the J-35 will have short or ill fated production run, but I think the J-20 will have it beat no matter what.

 

[EmoBirb]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't our official guesstimate over 350 by Q3 2024, and 420-450 airframes by now?

I honestly lost track somewhat, but more than 300 has been the accepted minimum for a while. The recent sighting just confirms this with concrete evidence.

 

[snne]

I honestly lost track somewhat, but more than 300 has been the accepted minimum for a while. The recent sighting just confirms this with concrete evidence.

Remember these?

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-viii.9082/post-1126415
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-viii.9082/post-1126419
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-viii.9082/post-1126421
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-viii.9082/post-1126425


While this huge increase in metamaterial production doesn't necessarily mean more annual J-20 production, it is one of the things it strongly indicates...

 

[Scott Kenny]

That is IF there is actually 300 made (even if there are 10 aircraft per squadron thats 30 squadrons...).

It seems to track. Also, I suspect that it's 25 squadrons of 12.

How do we know that the marking on the airshow aircraft isn't deliberately inflated? Should we really take these numbers at face value when placed in the public eye?

Yes, it's a possibility. That said, China has generally been open as to numbers. J-20 prototypes with series numbers 20XX. The J-36 prototype numbered 36011. Series 36, placeholder 0, 1st modification of design, 1st serial of that mod.