Well, didn't you just agreed with me really?

It's not bad if you assume canard+LERX+delta+ventral fins aero layout is set in stone. If they wanted it F-22 level stealth why would you start from there? Especially the ventral fins - sure you RAM treat them but not having them seems better.


Moving canards are not ideal even if edge aligned at rest. Ventral fins are not ideal. The LERX section is curved, not aligned to anything. The entire rear section needed rework to be "comparable to F-22"- and some changes were made in this area. I doubt there was much emphasis on rear sector stealth in the requirement.

I don't think we fully agree, because you are making it sound like the key aerodynamic features of the aircraft are optional, whereas we should instead view the aerodynamic configuration as immutable and required to meet their aerodynamic performance requirements.

The LERX of J-20 is not curved, it is straight (the initial tech demos s/n 2001 and 2002 hard curved LERX among other differences, but those were modified and refined by the 201X series prototypes that led to production aircraft).


As for the aircraft's rear section -- the LERX are about as signature reduced as they can be, and the most major difference vis a vis F-22 that remains is the 2D nozzles, which of course are lower in signature but a circular LOAN nozzle that J-20 has with WS-10s and WS-15s is also in the same category of nozzle outcome/solution that F-35 has.


Let me be clear -- I'm not talking about how stealthy J-20 is versus F-22 or F-35 or how effective they are as airframes.
I am talking about your prior assertion that: "It appears to me that the basic layout was selected for primarily aerodynamic reasons without full understanding of stealth shaping at an early stage of development, and then subsequently revised to substantially reduce the RCS without deviating too much from the original design."

My counter argument, is that on the contrary the stealth/signature reduction efforts made to the aircraft, based on the key aerodynamic features and configuration that they needed to use for the purposes of meeting aerodynamic performance requirements, do not show a poor understanding of stealth shaping.

On the contrary, if one was given the task to shape a stealthy airframe based on the following brief: "twin engine aircraft with circular LOAN nozzles, all moving twin tails, fixed ventral rear fins, dihedral canards, LERX, delta wing" then you would probably see something like J-20.



I'm not an expert, but I believe @quellish has some more detailed observations in the past.

I've never read the 2003 paper linked, so thanks for that.


Two orders of magnitude is far from F-22 levels of RCS reduction, while the statement implies 4th gen fighter frontal RCS is 30 sq m. This is pretty high - maybe a fully loaded F-15 with tanks and missiles?

As I mentioned in the article write up/commentary, the paper itself likely didn't have a classification level so the "numbers" (including RCS, and things like radar performance etc) at the time were likely just hand-waved standins.


I think this is the last I'll say on the matter.

That's fine, I appreciate the discussion.
But I want to re-emphasize my participation in this discussion was not about the relative performance or stealth of J-20 versus other aircraft, but rather the extent to which one can infer CAC's understanding of RF signature reduction based on the stealth shaping for the specific aerodynamic configuration they had.
 
This is actually very interesting for a few reasons, it goes into some detail on how to minimise the effect of a canard on frontal RCS using careful shaping of the gaps, RAM and RAS.

Using Google Translate (I had to redo OCR on the PDF to get proper Chinese characters - attached) I saw this:
The scattering peak of the edge components is strong and the beam level is high (see Table 3 for the average values), which has a great impact on high stealth aircraft of the order of 0.001 - 0.005 m2
If this is representative of J-20 frontal RCS class, that's pretty impressive.
 

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  • canardocr.pdf
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trailing edge normal scattering.jpg

The article says that the canard layout using a swept back trailing edge aligned to opposite wing trailing edge does give a bit higher frontal RCS than a tail with swept forward trailing edge would because the scattering from canard trailing edge is clear of the fuselage while a tail trailing edge aligned to wing rear would be to some extent blocked by the fuselage.

Also -

The test results show that if no RCS reduction measures are taken, the influence of the front stealth of the aircraft is significant. After the edge scattering structure is applied, the edge scattering can be effectively suppressed.
 
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In fact, for me, "sacrificing stealth by using canard wings to compensate for engine deficiencies" is a fallacy in itself.
In China, performance in the supersonic regime is the primary consideration, followed by performance in the subsonic and transonic regimes.
 
View attachment 777547

The article says that the canard layout using a swept back trailing edge aligned to opposite wing trailing edge does give a bit higher frontal RCS than a tail with swept forward trailing edge would because the scattering from canard trailing edge is clear of the fuselage while a tail trailing edge aligned to wing rear would be to some extent blocked by the fuselage.

Also -
I will be utterly honest, when it comes to stealth a lot of propaganda is released, and I say propaganda because in nature matter can not be destroyed or created, energy only transforms it self, electromagnetic waves are not destroyed, not created just they transform.

How come F-35 has met J-20, who saw who first?
If you say F-35 then J-20 can be detected if you say
J-20 then F-35 can be detected


China claims they can detect stealth aircraft so is the USA

So who is telling the truth?

is F-22 wrong by not adding canards?

and this is a reality stealth is relative and depends upon several technologies.

So electromagnetic waves are always reflected, the problem is the direction of the target to the radar, thus orienting the reflection angle and the number of reflecting surfaces is very important, it is harder to hide then a canard with dihedral making for another reflecting surface than a tailplane hidden by the wing, it is better do not have extra reflecting surfaces such as ventral fins, than having them, so F-22 has much better stealth regardless how much the Chinese fans want to push J-20 as an equal of F-22, hard pill to swallow for some but reality bites if J-20 is so good with canards why FCAS does not have them? or B-21 or even J-36?

Aerodynamics play a role, but the best stealth aircraft is like B-21,


The reflection angle is the angle between a reflected ray and the normal line (a line perpendicular to the surface) at the point where the ray reflects off a surface.
 
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Personally, I believe that there are no inherent advantages and disadvantages in stealth between the canard wing layout and the conventional layout.
As for the actual performance, it depends on the specific design level.
There are certain benefits to using a canard layout, but the time and capital costs to deal with it stealth are far more than some flight performance improvements, so this is why most of the fifth-generation aircraft in the world today are conventional layouts, which can also explain why the American F47 also uses canard wings (possibly)
 
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Personally, I believe that there are no inherent advantages and disadvantages in stealth between the canard wing layout and the conventional layout.

The main negative given is that it's up front, flashing it's return everywhere, where a traditional horizontal stab is masked by the wing and fuselage.
 
I will be utterly honest, when it comes to stealth a lot of propaganda is released, and I say propaganda because in nature matter can not be destroyed or created, energy only transforms it self, electromagnetic waves are not destroyed, not created just they transform.

How come F-35 has met J-20, who saw who first?
If you say F-35 then J-20 can be detected if you say
J-20 then F-35 can be detected


China claims they can detect stealth aircraft so is the USA

So who is telling the truth?

is F-22 wrong by not adding canards?

and this is a reality stealth is relative and depends upon several technologies.

So electromagnetic waves are always reflected, the problem is the direction of the target to the radar, thus orienting the reflection angle and the number of reflecting surfaces is very important, it is harder to hide then a canard with dihedral making for another reflecting surface than a tailplane hidden by the wing, it is better do not have extra reflecting surfaces such as ventral fins, than having them, so F-22 has much better stealth regardless how much the Chinese fans want to push J-20 as an equal of F-22, hard pill to swallow for some but reality bites if J-20 is so good with canards why FCAS does not have them? or B-21 or even J-36?

Aerodynamics play a role, but the best stealth aircraft is like B-21,


The reflection angle is the angle between a reflected ray and the normal line (a line perpendicular to the surface) at the point where the ray reflects off a surface.
The canards on the J-20 may be a compromise involving pitch control authority and other factors, this is a long aircraft. The forward section of the J-20 is a combo of F-35 and F-22, no question about this. The F-22 and F-35 were designed to keep the frontal aspect's reflections as low as possible but had to balance aero and aero-engine inlet performance as well so were designed with h-tails in the rear, same goes for the YF-23 however the 23 had much lower RCS than the 22 even with the v-tails.

The leading edge flaps at standoff distances are faired/fix, again minimal reflections but are required for air to air engagement then LO is of no concern anyway at that point. In regards to previous comments regarding the X-36, was a sub-scale demonstrator only as a tailless, high maneuverability platform but it does have planform alignment but no full-scale platform was ever built.

The NATF-23's canards were a trade-off for LO along with carrier takeoff and landing requirements. The B-21 is the next gen evolution of the B-2 where NG has refined VLO and aero performance to the next level.
 
The canards on the J-20 may be a compromise involving pitch control authority and other factors, this is a long aircraft. The forward section of the J-20 is a combo of F-35 and F-22, no question about this. The F-22 and F-35 were designed to keep the frontal aspect's reflections as low as possible but had to balance aero and aero-engine inlet performance as well so were designed with h-tails in the rear, same goes for the YF-23 however the 23 had much lower RCS than the 22 even with the v-tails.

The leading edge flaps at standoff distances are faired/fix, again minimal reflections but are required for air to air engagement then LO is of no concern anyway at that point. In regards to previous comments regarding the X-36, was a sub-scale demonstrator only as a tailless, high maneuverability platform but it does have planform alignment but no full-scale platform was ever built.

The NATF-23's canards were a trade-off for LO along with carrier takeoff and landing requirements. The B-21 is the next gen evolution of the B-2 where NG has refined VLO and aero performance to the next level.
I will tell you why this are usuially fruitless conversations, it is because people use concepts without really understanding the concepts.


RCS is not fixed, it depends upon the power of the radar and the distance the target is from the radar.
That is even given by radar equations.


But also people do not use simple analogies to understand.

Our eyes are passive radars, if you are at 10 meters from a F-22 you can see the pilot`s face and see it is Jenny, a woman you like, if you are at 2 meters you can see Jenny has blue eyes and a mole. However at dusk you can not see she has blue eyes, but in the morning you see she has really blue eyes.

If you are at 200 meters you can not see it is Jenny, at 1000 meters you can not even see the pilot.

Radar is the same when they say RCS is of a size of a marble, it is a number using a distance and a radar type.

I meant at 200 km a F-22 looks as if it was a bumblebee to the radar of a MiG-21 of 1960s vintage, a golf ball to a MiG-25 of 1980 and so on, at 10 meters both J-20 and F-22 are very visible to the same radars, but at 50 km the canard on J-20 will make a tiny but important difference so J-20 will be more detectable, at 300 km, the canard will not make a difference compared to F-22.

Remember Stealth is propaganda, Lockheed Martin, Sukhoi or Chengdu or any company making stealth Machines use it to get money.
 
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View: https://x.com/Flankerchan/status/1728242633460568405?t=sVig18lKNTD4fMk2JGr1gg

Flankerchan did some simulations of the RCS gain in regards to canard deflection angle of the J-20, and up until 15-20 degrees of deflection the impact on RCS is negligible.

"The J-20 model here does not have absorber, except inlet as i previously used. The study covers frequency from VHF down to X-band but the imageries are from X-band."

So RAM is only simulated inside of the inlets versus X-band radar.

For the speed regime that a J-20 is expected to enter combat, there won't be a scenario where the canards will have to deflect up to 15 degrees. Of course, if the J-20 is manoeuvring at slow-subsonic speeds or especially while landing, it will exceed that and you could make the case that yes, it will be a notable surface that radar can pick up on.

Though if you're caught at low-subsonic speed in modern aerial combat, then something has gone very wrong.
 
I will tell you why this are usuially fruitless conversations, it is because people use concepts without really understanding the concepts.


RCS is not fixed, it depends upon the power of the radar and the distance the target is from the radar.
That is even given by radar equations.


But also people do not use simple analogies to understand.

Our eyes are passive radars, if you are at 10 meters from a F-22 you can see the pilot`s face and see it is Jenny, a woman you like, if you are at 2 meters you can see Jenny has blue eyes and a mole. However at dusk you can not see she has blue eyes, but in the morning you see she has really blue eyes.

If you are at 200 meters you can not see it is Jenny, at 1000 meters you can not even see the pilot.

Radar is the same when they say RCS is of a size of a marble, it is a number using a distance and a radar type.

I meant at 200 km a F-22 looks as if it was a bumblebee to the radar of a MiG-21 of 1960s vintage, a golf ball to a MiG-25 of 1980 and so on, at 10 meters both J-20 and F-22 are very visible to the same radars, but at 50 km the canard on J-20 will make a tiny but important difference so J-20 will be more detectable, at 300 km, the canard will not make a difference compared to F-22.

Remember Stealth is propaganda, Lockheed Martin, Sukhoi or Chengdu or any company making stealth Machines use it to get money.
I agree, RCS changes constantly and finding the right compromises is not easy. For the NG programs I was involved in lots of analysis, pole testing, analysis, flight testing, analysis. Now the modelling and simulation tools are a few generations where thing were at in the late 70s, the 80s and 90s, 2000s, keeps getting better. Northrop modeled and tested Tacit Blue's configuration and for that time period, it was amazing the level of LO this platform achieved but it was also exhausting for the folks involved plus the arguments with the aero folks.
 
Also I would assume at distant, standoff ranges in order to maintain a low RCS, canard deflection could be greatly limited (based upon the aircraft's aero-performance configuration) with the elevons having more authority in pitch and roll, maneuvers and turns are at slower rates plus the aircraft cg plays an important part in this as well.
 
The requirements for stealth performance in fighters differ at various stages of combat missions. Personally, I believe that maintaining high levels of stealth during intense maneuvers, such as during takeoffs and landings, close-range dogfights, and avoiding incoming missiles, is neither reasonable nor realistic.
 
The main negative given is that it's up front, flashing it's return everywhere, where a traditional horizontal stab is masked by the wing and fuselage.
As far as I know, this situation can be greatly reduced by detailing, but the workload will be multiplied.
 
The canards on the J-20 may be a compromise involving pitch control authority and other factors, this is a long aircraft. The forward section of the J-20 is a combo of F-35 and F-22, no question about this. The F-22 and F-35 were designed to keep the frontal aspect's reflections as low as possible but had to balance aero and aero-engine inlet performance as well so were designed with h-tails in the rear, same goes for the YF-23 however the 23 had much lower RCS than the 22 even with the v-tails.

The leading edge flaps at standoff distances are faired/fix, again minimal reflections but are required for air to air engagement then LO is of no concern anyway at that point. In regards to previous comments regarding the X-36, was a sub-scale demonstrator only as a tailless, high maneuverability platform but it does have planform alignment but no full-scale platform was ever built.

The NATF-23's canards were a trade-off for LO along with carrier takeoff and landing requirements. The B-21 is the next gen evolution of the B-2 where NG has refined VLO and aero performance to the next level.
Make it bigger, with two engines, bend the canard up, and you're almost there. Timing would have been about right to have a big influence too.

FrWmhQxXwAE4KTl.png

thumbnail.jpg
 
It is not continuos. The gap is just not that clear.
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IDK about the J-20S but the J-20A seems to have it 54706950136_bf20d1a79e_o.jpg
I've also been going through close up pictures of J-20Ss but it seems like maybe 78830 is the only one that doesn't have it as 78833 seems to have it along with J-20As. But as it seems 78830 and 78833 are the only J-20S on flying duty for the parade it's hard to get more info. 1756200116358.jpg
 
Full set of gorgeous images via: by78/sinoedefenceforum

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View: https://x.com/FaySue6/status/1963208509438243129?t=P84QmlHILwYCZmSam6rdIw&s=19
 
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Some crude estimates for 2035 indicate something like 2400 to 2600 PLAAF/PLAN fighters with a higher but still unknown aircraft availability rate to 1200 actually available US fighters (i've seen some estimates saying 2100-2500 total aircraft by 2035) and an about equal percentage of 5th gens + US having older 4th gens. Sure - it's lopsided if you consider that those numbers for the US are spread around the world while the PLA is focused on one theater, but even with a newer fleet, that doesn't change either.
On top of that, F-35 delays don't really translate onto China.
J-35(A), J-20A, J-20S were supposed to come together with blk.4 bulk, most probably directly intended to parry them.

Sure, WS-15 fails yet again, but this isn't a determinant; at large PLAAF is already there (plus, ws-19/21 didn't fail), and will start growing likely sub generation overmatch starting ~this fall(?).
And PLANAF is limited only by a really slow pace of big deck construction.
Furthermore, major new addition to USAF fleet, the EX, is largely a 2010s aircraft as well(thanks Qatar). Its purchases in 2020s are not unlike Russia procuring su-30sms(2001 capability) in 2010s - nice and from the shelf, but it is unlikely to be overmatch to already available large fleet of J-16.
 
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Sure, WS-15 fails yet again,
WS-15 is believed to have entered LRIP (according to some PLA watchers and photos of J-20A prototype). However it's expected that variants of the WS-10 will remain the primary engines in use at 2027. WS-15 might only be deployed in small numbers within some important units by the 2030s.
J-35(A), J-20A, J-20S were supposed to come together with blk.4 bulk, most probably directly intended to parry them.
I believe that the F-35 (including its supporting ecosystem) can no longer effectively contest air superiority in the core areas of the Asia-Pacific region. An easy analysis of the PLA's A2/AD system reveals that it was designed from the outset to directly counter the F-35's operational paradigm.

Firstly, fighters like the J-20 (and even the J-36 which features a radically aggressive, even arguably extreme design philosophy) are heavy fighters emphasizing high speed and range which possess advantages in rapid response capabilities in the vast Western Pacific theatre.

Secondly, specialized systems like the PL-17 ultra-long-range AAM (designed for large high-value targets), combined with anti-stealth ground-based radars and the KJ-3000 AEW&C aircraft, degrade the F-35's strategic endurance and survivability.

Thirdly, anti-ship and land attack systems represented by the DF-26 further suppress the deployment of carrier strike groups and island bases.

This is not to say that the F-35's operational system has become obsolete, but its foundational advantages have been undermined, at least within the core Asia-Pacific region. The PLA's increasingly assertive exercises and operations in recent years unabashedly demonstrate their confidence in this strategic posture.
If the US genuinely intends to regain air superiority over an area the PLA has been meticulously operating in for years, the solution likely requires far more than just a single new platform like an F-47 or F/A-XX. But I think the absence of a truly peer competitor in the fighter domain would undoubtedly pose a significant constraint.
 
WS-15 is believed to have entered LRIP (according to some PLA watchers and photos of J-20A prototype). However it's expected that variants of the WS-10 will remain the primary engines in use at 2027. WS-15 might only be deployed in small numbers within some important units by the 2030s.
I doubt it, WS-15's issue is said to be supply chain related as China unlike the US does not benefit from the mature supply chains for advanced engines and hence have to build everything from scratch. Once that supply chain issue is solved, mass production of advanced aeroengines should no longer be an issue. Considering they have quite a lot of advanced engine projects coming up like WS-19, CJ-1000 and CJ-2000 before the end of this decade that will require that supply chain, I doubt that issue will remain for long.
 
Hey !! J-20 serial number 63106 has arrived at the Changchun Air Show 2025.

It is assigned to the 19th Air Brigade and even more important, finally it is one where the construction number is visible: CB10300, aka from Batch 10 & the 300th J-20 in total!(via @齐天的孙猴子)

J-20 63106 at Changchun Air Show 2025 - 19. Brig - 齐天的孙猴子 - 1.jpg J-20 63106 CB10300 at Changchun Air Show 2025 - 19. Brig - 太湖军I名.jpg
 

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