2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran and elsewhere in region - News and Discussion

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Qatar’s energy minister has warned that an energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict could “bring down the economies of the world”.

Saad al-Kaabi predicted that all exporters in the Middle East would shut down production within weeks as a result of the war.

Oil prices jumped by more than 4pc after he forecast the crisis would push up the price of a barrel of crude to more than $150, dragging down growth in global economies. Brent, the international benchmark, surpassed $89 on Friday for the first time in two years.

Mr Kaabi said it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to ramp up delivers to normal levels even if the war ended immediately, he told The Financial Times.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest producer of liquefied natural gas plant (LNG), was forced to halt output at its Ras Laffan plant following Iranian drone strikes.

It declared force majeure this week, excusing it from fulfilling its contractual obligations after the suspension of production.

Qatar supplies around 1pc of UK gas but is a major supplier to Asia.

European natural gas prices have this week risen at their fastest pace since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which triggered a global energy shock.

“This will bring down the economies of the world,” Mr Kaabi said.

“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher.

“There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
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For the record, this is not talking about a large ground invasion but small operations. I guess the aftermath of this war would be similar to the 1st Gulf War.

www.nbcnews.com

Trump has privately shown serious interest in U.S. ground troops in Iran

The president’s private comments have not focused on a large-scale ground invasion of Iran, but rather on the idea of a small contingent of U.S. troops that would be used for specific strategic purposes, sources say.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
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Desertfox said:
We knew Iran had thousands of those drones... Not planning for them is criminal incompetence.
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An article about anti-UAS tech (perhaps, finally) finding its way into the Gulf, Ukrainian and Ukraine-related.

behindthefront.substack.com

Better Late Than Never, US and Allies Race Toward Ukrainian Counter-Shahed Tech

By Dr. Joshua E. Segal
behindthefront.substack.com behindthefront.substack.com

Strategy professor Phillips O'Brien is highly critical about U.S. preparedness on the Iranian UAS threat, among other things.

phillipspobrien.substack.com

The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It

The Atlantic Piece Just Scratched The Surface
phillipspobrien.substack.com phillipspobrien.substack.com

"But to the surprise of some officials in Kyiv, no one from the U.S. bothered to ask Ukraine to share its expertise in how to defend against drones before starting the offensive in Iran", from an article in The Atlantic.

www.theatlantic.com

The Glaring Oversight in the U.S. War Plan

The Pentagon failed to adopt Ukraine’s best tools for downing drones.
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com

Shot:

zelenskyy_iran.jpg

Chaser (Washington Post, and others):

rus_iran.jpg

Hangover:

www.independent.co.uk

Trump slams Fox reporter for ‘stupid question’ about claims Russia is helping Iran

Russia has helped Iran locate U.S. ships and aircraft, according to a recent report
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

Hangover #2:


Hangover #3:

www.theguardian.com

US considers lifting more sanctions on Russian oil as Iran conflict sees global prices surge

Washington says new measures not aimed at easing restrictions on Moscow and only affect supplies already in transit
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Conflicting ramifications in general on the energy sector:

 
Sam Lair (a Fellow in the National Security Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a Research Associate on the Open-Source Intelligence Team at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies) is keeping fairly close tabs on U.S. (and Israeli strikes) in Iran on Bluesky.

bsky.app

Sam Lair (@slair.bsky.social)

Research Associate at CNS | Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter
bsky.app bsky.app

Worth reading his latest comments on FPRI's site as well.

 
UpForce said:
Dunno. Let's hash this out a bit.

I'm not privy to the procurement process of the GCC nor to how in the loop they were, intelligence wise, insofar as it came to this phase of the war. The GCC is ~four times the area of Ukraine but I think its locations requiring AD might be fewer and more localized (there are qualitative differences about their respective urban areas, energy infrastructures and defense installations, though). The mere interceptor costs (lowest I could find) for the Iron Dome is ~$40k and APKWS $22k; I've seen interceptor drones quoted at $1-$4k, so an order of magnitude cheaper at that level (beyond my pay grade to start comparing employment, ancillary costs, perhaps you're up to speed on these). Not suggesting that different systems can be replaced one-to-one but different mixes can certainly be equally effective? In any case, we might be about to find out.

The operational environment in the GCC for AD crews is (seemingly, mostly) much more permissive than in Ukraine (not discounting Iran might have intelligence assets and Russia's help in targeting, just considering the distances involved and Iranian units currently having to improvise under far more challenging circumstances). Interception before the shoreline is an issue but for countering relatively low-flying most likely autonomous UAVs a persistent presence of high(-est) end attack helos doesn't necessarily seem entirely sustainable, however large the fleets might be? Have you considered/any news on naval assets in this role? Launching interceptor drones from somewhat less technically involved helicopters and/or aircraft might also be an interesting development, for the Gulf region and Ukraine alike.
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After some consideration, it seems to me as the GCC has probably a very good C-UAS capability, at least on paper if we consider their aircraft of all types and navy vessels.
I'd expect to see these employed more, or at all. Though lack of footage is not proof of non-use.

Perhaps we need an update on interception rates of drones in the GCC.


More aircraft got shredded.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2030269070990344627
 
A bunch of superfluous or similar commentary deleted. Remember folks NEWS ONLY. Some are coming very close to thread posting bans.
 
Assuming the switch from Destruction of Enemy Air Defense and Theater Missile Defense to national infrastructure is the shift to phase 2, then we have an early indication it will last about 2 weeks.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2030339293927841971

The targets are easier to hit in a more permissive environment and not as plentiful as the targets so far, so I'm assuming it includes a lot of smaller, softer targets as well.
 
Translation:
After neutralizing the tyrant Khamenei, the terrorist regime of Iran is attempting to rebuild itself and select a new leader.Iran's Assembly of Experts, which has not convened for decades, will soon gather in the city of Qom. We want to tell you that the hand of the State of Israel will continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor.We warn all those who intend to participate in the successor selection meeting that we will not hesitate to target you either. This is a warning!
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This stands out because this time the IDF gives a warning to not convene instead of waiting for them to convene and strike.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2030546982150738007
 
www.bbc.com

Trump says Iran war will be over 'pretty quickly' but US hasn't 'won enough' yet

Oil prices fall as Trump threatens Iran with 'fire and fury' over Strait of Hormuz
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

www.bbc.com

Iran ambassador warns UK to be 'very careful' about involvement in war

Seyed Ali Mousavi says Iran has a "right to self-defence" if the UK directly joins US-Israeli attacks.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

www.bbc.com

US embassy in Oslo hit by explosion, Norway police say

No injuries are reported after the blast in the Norwegian capital in the early hours on Sunday.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/2030337646673666356
View: https://x.com/i/status/2030337646673666356

1772849121468.png
Israeli forces were attacked and pinned down by Hezbollah in Lebanon during an attempted extraction. Several casualties reported (some going as far as stating over 40).

BBC article on the matter:
www.bbc.com

Dozens killed as Israeli special forces raid Lebanese village in search of 40-year-old remains

Overnight, one Israeli operation saw at least 41 people killed and 40 injured, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
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Folks, please, remember GTX‘ post from Friday (#186) !
… and hiding comments amongst some links to what may be regarded as news, is a good trick, but not always successful …

As the sheer number of violations of the News-Only rule has become too big, I‘ll edit or delete posts without any comment from now on.
 
Am I able to ask a weapon’s related question of our brilliant and esteemed members?

Facebook

www.facebook.com www.facebook.com

Many of the videos attacking vehicles seem to show small explosions. There was one, I can’t find now, again “appeared” to make the aircraft on the ground burst into flames with no explosion.

Anyone thinking what weapons these might be. SDB? Spike?

My apologies if this is outside the “News Only” parameters.
 
bobbymike said:
Many of the videos attacking vehicles seem to show small explosions. There was one, I can’t find now, again “appeared” to make the aircraft on the ground burst into flames with no explosion.

Anyone thinking what weapons these might be. SDB? Spike?

My apologies if this is outside the “News Only” parameters.
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Hellfire and Mikholit are used a lot.
 
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