India's two biggest problems of their many problems, in developing indigenous aircraft is the lack of engine security, and the abysmal bureaucracy.
Funding for the prototype development of the Tejas Mk2 was only actually released by the CCS in 2022, and for the AMCA in 2024. This means that any timeline that talked about Mk2 rollout/FF before this point in time would be complete horseshit, and this also applies to AMCA. Despite the 'delays' Tejas Mk2 rollout and eventual first flight in 2026 wouldn't be completely horrendously off schedule, IF they do manage to pull it off this year. IF India gets their Mk2 out this year, I will give the benefit of the doubt for the AMCA Mk1 schedule, rollout by 2029, first flight by 2030, induction into service by 2037-2038. I would HOPE that by now they've learned the lessons from the Tejas debacle and apply it to the AMCA, but really this is just high optimism.
Their second, equally biggest plague is jet engine security. Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, and AMCA Mk1 all completely depend on the supply of America F404, and F414 engines. A poor decision in retrospect. India has had the delightful of experience maintaining russian engines on both the Su-30MKI and Mig-29K, both were complete maintenance nightmares, thus for it's indigenous fighter Tejas, India had hoped that warming relations with the US would get them far more reliable American engine technology for their indigenous programs. Thus at this point in time Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, and AMCA Mk1, are only compatible with American Engines.
From the beginning there was zero confidence in India's own Kaveri program, pretty quickly development of Kaveri and Tejas were delinked, and Tejas moved on to only use F404's. At the time this looked like a sensible move as the Kaveri engine was not being seriously developed, nor was it hitting performance targets. Now this decision has completely bit Tejas in the butt. As of current IIRC HAL has 12 airframes of Tejas Mk1A that are just sitting engineless due to the F404 engine delays. It's honestly sort of pathetic, every month on X I see Indians cheering the delivery of 2 F404's to HAL, as it is like a grand accomplishment. This is how badly starved of engines India is at this point in time.
Now it's on the Tejas Mk2, CCS approval took so long because the bureaucracy wanted to ensure that India could sign a deal for F414's for both Tejas Mk2 and AMCA, poor decisions have made both programs 100% reliant on American engines with zero alternatives AGAIN. In terms of development, everything could go perfectly in India, and AMCA and Tejas Mk2 would still be in delayed purgatory, as long as both programs are 100% reliant on American engines that is.
For any other nation, prototype development should only take 3-4 years, expecting the same from India is a fools errand but I remain hopeful. Success of AMCA to me, depends on how closely timelines are stuck for Tejas Mk2.
Down below I'll list FF to IOC dates for 5th gen aircraft. If AMCA FF is 2030, and service entry 2045, even with India's record, that seems far too pessimistic. But personally I also do think 2035 is a bit dubious, that sort of timeline would be beating out the J-20, and be just ahead of the J-35.
F-22: 1997-2005 7 years
F-35: 2006-2015 9 years
Su-57: 2010-2020 10 years
J-20: 2011-2017 6 years
J-35: 2021-2025 4 years
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AMCA: 2030-2038 8 years
I think everyone here was also surprised China managed to service the J-20 in just 6 years, and im sure India also has the potential to surprise people as well, maybe for the worse or for the better.