Politico's piece title : "no shit Sherlock ?"
That said, I don't see a new Gov policy changing much on the subject anyway. Lecornu is likely to be re-assigned as the army minister, and foreign affairs being the president's domain we are likely to see one of Macron's man in place there.
So the result of this shit show on the SCAF issue will just likely be more delays.
 
I don't think the current political shit show in France will have much incidence on the FCAS. As long as Macron is president, he's the one with the power to decide the fate of FCAS, not the parliament, not the government.
 
Let's wait and see what happens to Macron if he can escape the current problems with the parliament if he can survive that then the FCAS future is secured. But from what I have seen the parliament currrently want Macron out.
 
from what I have seen the parliament currrently want Macron out
To oust the president, both houses of the French parliament would need to convene the special Republican High Court to impeach the president.
I can't remember that happening. So far, presidential elections have decided on who is/remains president.
 
Its already impacting FCAS as a make or break inter-ministerial meeting has had to be cancelled, as the article points out Dassault at the moment is more powerful than the state, there aren't many candidates for new defence minister that has the cross party political clout to reign them in and solve the impasse. The project itself isn't progressing while these development procurement decisions remain untaken, time is advancing and potential delivery is just sliding to the right.
 
Why would their defence minister repost this article, when belgium is the only one asking to join FCAS ?
It's litteraly an ad for the american MIC.
How about little belgium leaves our inferior weapons industry alone ?

The United States is and remains the arsenal of democracy.

So why was there so much resistance to the F-35?
Because Lockheed Martin is an American company. The argument went: we must “buy European,” since Europe seeks “strategic autonomy.”
The same criticism resurfaced this year, when the government decided to purchase 11 additional F-35s.
But that argument doesn’t hold water. Industrially speaking, the F-35 is even more European than the Rafale, which is purely a French product.

Those who operate the F-35 will also be able to connect to the innovative systems now being developed in the U.S. by companies such as General Atomics, Anduril, Boeing, and Kratos.
Within a few years, every F-35 will be able to work alongside multiple AI-powered armed drones, acting as “loyal wingmen.”
This will exponentially increase its firepower.

Only one European country refuses to enter multinational cooperation with the American defense industry: France.
Like a Gaulish village surrounded by angry Romans, France pursues national defense-industrial autonomy.
The result of this technological isolationism ?
More expensive, inferior weapons systems, harder to integrate with those of its European allies.
 
Why would their defence minister repost this article, when belgium is the only one asking to join FCAS ?

The article was written by Joren Vermeersch, who is an ideology advisor for the Flemish-nationalistic party N-VA.
The present Belgian prime-minister and the Belgian minister of Defense belong the same political party.
 
It's the usual one-sided, overly-simplistic bilge written by lobbyists paid by US defense companies.

Today, the first four of a total of 45 F-35s arrive in Belgium. Once equipped with Raytheon's latest generation of AMRAAM missiles, they will be technologically superior to anything the French Air Force has to offer. If the intensive week of company visits in the US has taught me one thing, it's this: rejecting American weapons technology puts yourself out of the game.

While no one is going to deny the F-35's strengths, pretending that Belgium is now "in the game" having received 3 non-combat capable and unarmed F-35s (with the 4th aircraft breaking down and rather embarrassingly stuck in the Azores) is quite something.

Even once Belgium receives its planned weapons (downgraded AIM-120C8s and short range AIM-9Xs) the RBAF will still lack any truly long-range or standoff capability- no Meteor, no air launched cruise missiles or powered glide bombs... but don't you worry, just be impressed with all the "armed AI-controlled drone jets" that will be made magically available to F-35 export users, rendering all other combat aircraft technologically obsolete! Makes one wonder why Belgium pushed so hard to join FCAS (lol)... but don't expect this kind of paid-advertising to give a balanced view of the pros and cons of that decision.
 
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There seems to be a agreement on a 15-16 ton aircraft :

FCAS: Air Forces Reaffirm Their Need for a Future Combat Air System​

The French Air Force insists it has no disagreement with its German and Spanish counterparts over the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program. On the contrary, it explains why their needs are converging.

In a world evolving at breakneck speed amid technological upheavals, is the program launched ten years ago by Paris, Berlin, and Madrid for the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) still relevant ? The French Air Force has no doubt about it.
This, in essence, was the message delivered by General Tardif, Deputy Chief of Staff of the French Air Force, during a meeting with the Defense Journalists Association. Industrial quarrels between Dassault and Airbus, he said, matter little.
According to him, the general staffs of the three air forces — German, French, and Spanish — share a truly common stance on the necessity of FCAS. This conviction has been strengthened by ongoing analyses of recent conflicts: in Ukraine, where the Russians have failed to establish air superiority, and in the Middle East, where the Israeli Air Force has demonstrated exemplary strength. Because Russia has not managed to deploy its air assets effectively, it is bogged down in a stalemated conflict, whereas Israel has regained the upper hand through air power, despite the proliferation of enemy air defenses.

Regaining Air Superiority​

These analyses, first and foremost, compel Europe to rebuild its air power — with more fighter jets, more refueling aircraft, and more long-range strike capabilities. “But what these lessons mainly show,” explains the French Air Force’s number two, “is that it’s not enough to have strong air defenses — we must also possess offensive capabilities. That’s exactly what FCAS is about.” In other words, Germany’s “European Sky Shield” air defense initiative is necessary but not sufficient.
By 2035, the French Air Force plans to rely on the 5th version of the Rafale“the equivalent of the first building block of the FCAS” — and on new aeroballistic missiles for deep strikes, including a new anti-radar missile, the RJ10, currently under development at MBDA. “By 2040, we will need the FCAS, capable of operating expendable drones (disposable, like the Russian Geran), decoy drones (for jamming, smoke, radar deception), and combat drones. From a military perspective, the needs of the three air forces are converging,” explains the general.

Converging Needs​

According to him, as promised, the air forces reached an agreement last July on the empty weight of the future combat aircraft — a subject that had long divided them.
In a logic of aerial warfare facing the East, the Germans favor a fighter capable of carrying many drones into battle.
In a nuclear deterrence framework, the French argue for an agile aircraft able to take off from the future aircraft carrier.

These 2 visions had long prevented both the militaries and the manufacturers from converging on an ideal model for the next-generation fighter.
5 architectures were studied; 2 remained before the summer. Engine constraints further narrow the options. An agreement is said to have been reached on a weight of 15 to 16 tons. The chiefs of staff, who met again recently, reaffirmed this consensus.

For General Tardif, the military intentions remain aligned despite the industrial disputes between Dassault and Airbus. He acknowledges, however, that there may be differences between Paris and Berlin on timing — France being more pressed than its neighbor.
France wants to ensure continuity of its nuclear deterrent capability by 2040, whereas Germany, which will have U.S. F-35s capable of carrying American nuclear bombs, can afford to wait longer.
General Tardif reminds that the FCAS program goes far beyond the fighter itself: it is envisioned as a vast airborne information system, integrating a tactical cloud, drones, artificial intelligence, and enhanced connectivity between aerial platforms — a challenge of no small magnitude.
 
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The report tracks seeing how much ordnance Germany wanted to have with their own projects. This suggests the aircraft will have a gross TOW of 64000 lbs with internals only. This matches with carrier catapult limitation requirement. I'm assuming the combat range is ~700 NM.
 
So aviation procurement relations not rosy between France and Belgium either.
Because Trappied said in a French Senate audition that Belgium can't ask for SCAF developpment works now that they have purchased US jets.
Belgium has to ask uncle Sam some returns on F47....
 
Why would their defence minister repost this article, when belgium is the only one asking to join FCAS ?
It's litteraly an ad for the american MIC.
How about little belgium leaves our inferior weapons industry alone ?
The result is that France is the sole european country mastering all the fighter jet technology. Result is the best european fighter of its time.
 
An interresting report now im not close enough with the programm to know if all of the named points are true. Some are even new to me...
https://suv.report/quo-vadis-fcas/

I mostly agree with the author, if things between France (Dassault) and Germany (Airbus) don´t get resolved very soon (in the next few months), then Germany should step out and let the French go their own way, alone again. Germany could then start a joint development program with the Swedes (Saab). Or Germany could join GCAP, but as the article states it´s rather (too) late and Germany won´t be much more then just a customer.
Anyway, Europeans should get their acts together FAST.
 
An interresting report now im not close enough with the programm to know if all of the named points are true. Some are even new to me...
https://suv.report/quo-vadis-fcas/

Many of the article's claims aren't backed by any sources or public statements elsewhere, so I struggle with their credibility.

2.1 Problem​

For example, French industry is demanding:
  • At least two-thirds of the work share in the development and production of the NGF (Next Generation Fighter)
  • Rejection of a Joint Design Office and sole decision-making authority in the design of the NGF, including selection decisions for subsystems
  • No know-how transfer in the development of the demonstrator including black boxes for the German and Spanish partners
  • Implementation by a joint venture based in France with Dassault holding the CEO position throughout
  • A reduction of the Spanish work share on the NGF engine
Furthermore, the limitations of the NGF with regard to its orientation as a carrier-based aircraft and the deployment of nuclear-armed ALCMs (air-launched cruise missiles) such as the ASMP-A or the ASN4G result in a capability profile that does not fully meet the German Air Force's requirements.

2.2 Why is this not an option for Germany?​

If the German government were to agree to Dassault's demands and the FCAS program were to continue, Germany would have to accept that it would have no control over the project's progress or the final product, despite significant financial contributions of over €10 billion and firm purchase guarantees. As with the F-35, Germany would be confronted with the manufacturer's black boxes. Furthermore, the German aerospace industry would lose knowledge in the field of combat aircraft construction rather than gain it. Last but not least, Germany would potentially be relegated to the role of a supplier and, despite a significant order volume, would not receive its own NGF demonstrator based on the Eurofighter. Therefore, from an industrial policy perspective, these demands cannot be accommodated.
- The 1st point about 2/3rds work share has been discredited. It's been clarified that Dassault & France are not challenging the work share, just asking for clear decision rights.​
- The 2nd point about final decision-making authority is correct however. That's the whole point of having a prime contractor and giving it the authority to make critical design decisions and subsystem selections... you can't have junior partners Airbus DS and Airbus ES outvoting the primes' design team (which incidentally has the most experience) although obviously the junior partners' input should be valued. The article distorts this to claim (very misleadingly) that Germany will have no control over progress or the final product... which is wrong. There will still be an overarching governance body (joint program office) representing the partner countries which is responsible for managing the prime and ensuring that Germany's requirements (as agreed to in Phase 1) will be met.​

- The 3rd point about no free know-how transfer is unfortunately a necessary feature of any program when you have such an imbalance in starting contributions, given how far ahead Dassault (and Thales) are in some areas. Why for example should Dassault transfer its decades of fly-by-wire and FCS software experience to Airbus DS? Why should Thales give away its Spectra warfare suite (which the French government has spent billions on)? It has been clear since the beginning that Germany wouldn't be allowed free access to prior work and know-how, and that some contributions by Dassault/Thales may require restrictions in sharing, precisely because they rely on that prior work.​
- With regards to capability requirements, still waiting for someone to clarify what is so special about Germany's requirements that wouldn't be met by a 15-16t empty stealth fighter?​
The writer does acknowledge Germany's true goal, which is to (re)gain the know-how in combat aircraft design that it has lost over time through its (fairly minor) contributions in Tornado, Eurofighter and zero contribution to F-35. What he doesn't fully acknowledge is that no one else is willing to give Germany the keys to that know-how - not the US, not the GCAP partners. Of course the German gov. and industry know this, but somehow they were expecting their French partners to just roll over and give away their keys for free.

Unfortunately a workable compromise would require Germany to accept a junior partner status on NGF (perhaps with a smaller financial contribution), rather than insisting on full equality between Airbus DS and Dassault/Thales... but there are national egos at stake.
 
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Many of the article's claims aren't backed by any sources or public statements elsewhere, so I struggle with their credibility.

- The 1st point about 2/3rds work share has been discredited. It's been clarified that Dassault & France are not challenging the work share, just asking for clear decision rights.​
- The 2nd point about final decision-making authority is correct however. That's the whole point of having a prime contractor and giving it the authority to make critical design decisions and subsystem selections... you can't have junior partners Airbus DS and Airbus ES outvoting the primes' design team (which incidentally has the most experience) although obviously the junior partners' input should be valued. The article distorts this to claim (very misleadingly) that Germany will have no control over progress or the final product... which is wrong. There will still be an overarching governance body (joint program office) representing the partner countries which is responsible for managing the prime and ensuring that Germany's requirements (as agreed to in Phase 1) will be met.​
Yeah still this could allow them for an more biased view of sub contractor
- The 3rd point about no free know-how transfer is unfortunately a necessary feature of any program when you have such an imbalance in starting contributions, given how far ahead Dassault (and Thales) are in some areas. Why for example should Dassault transfer its decades of fly-by-wire and FCS software experience to Airbus DS? Why should Thales give away its Spectra warfare suite (which the French government has spent billions on)? It has been clear since the beginning that Germany wouldn't be allowed free access to prior work and know-how, and that some contributions by Dassault/Thales may require restrictions in sharing, precisely because they rely on that prior work.​
Thats what they pay for don't they? ;)
- With regards to capability requirements, still waiting for someone to clarify what is so special about Germany's requirements that wouldn't be met by a 15-16t empty stealth fighter?​
Honestly don't know because from what we have seen as "requierments" with Diablo as example 15-16t are doable as an 36t mtow with 8t of payload allow some 8t of fuel. That said if they want more than that it could become quite difficult.
The writer does acknowledge Germany's true goal, which is to (re)gain the know-how in combat aircraft design that it has lost over time through its (fairly minor) contributions in Tornado, Eurofighter and zero contribution to F-35. What he doesn't fully acknowledge is that no one else is willing to give Germany the keys to that know-how - not the US, not the GCAP partners. Of course the German gov. and industry know this, but somehow they were expecting their French partners to just roll over and give away their keys for free.
My understand was that know how trade was allways part of it and accepted from both sides...
Unfortunately a workable compromise would require Germany to accept a junior partner status on NGF (perhaps with a smaller financial contribution), rather than insisting on full equality between Airbus DS and Dassault/Thales... but there are national egos at stake.
For sutch an compromise france would also have to sacrifice something of similiar magnitude.
 
- The 1st point about 2/3rds work share has been discredited. It's been clarified that Dassault & France are not challenging the work share, just asking for clear decision rights.
- The 2nd point about final decision-making authority is correct however. That's the whole point of having a prime contractor and giving it the authority to make critical design decisions and subsystem selections... you can't have junior partners Airbus DS and Airbus ES outvoting the primes' design team​
If the workshare is unchanged, Germany and Spain aren't 'junior partners', but equal partners.
 
If the workshare is unchanged, Germany and Spain aren't 'junior partners', but equal partners.
No. Workshare is merely the allocation of work, not necessarily the same as governance (how design decisions, supplier selection etc is done). It's quite common to outsource governance to a prime (e.g. A400M - Airbus Military acted as the prime, but still had to respect national workshares).

That said, it clearly gets complicated to have different funding/work share vs decision rights. One way to align incentives would be for NGF to have a more Neuron-like structure (i.e. 50-51% French across the board - funding, workshare, and decision rights), with the other pillars balancing this out to stay close to a 33% equal partnership across FCAS.
 
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Yeah still this could allow them for an more biased view of sub contractor

Thats what they pay for don't they? ;)

Honestly don't know because from what we have seen as "requierments" with Diablo as example 15-16t are doable as an 36t mtow with 8t of payload allow some 8t of fuel. That said if they want more than that it could become quite difficult.

My understand was that know how trade was allways part of it and accepted from both sides...

For sutch an compromise france would also have to sacrifice something of similiar magnitude.
Or rather, what they thought they could buy.
 
We are back in 1985, similiar situation as on EFA back then. Bound to fail.
The difference IMHO is that in 1985 all the EFA partners had decent fallback plans, so the EFA "failure" really wasn't one. France went one way and the other partners went the other, for both technical and industrial reasons. (e.g. Germany's requirements for a fast climbing interceptor with high supersonic maneuverability was driving to the opposite design choices as the French naval requirement). Everyone got what they wanted in the end.

Fast forward 40 years and Germany has no good fallback plan, as the GCAP and Swedish ideas are not realistic alternatives. France still has a fallback plan, with not a lot of downsides (and many upsides)... despite real concerns about funding. Spain is probably somewhere in between, as they could still salvage their work share in a French-led NGF but are in a very favorable position in FCAS with the ability to cast the decisive vote.

In negotiation class we're taught that "BATNA" (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) is everything... IMHO that puts Germany in the toughest spot, with the most to lose.
 
To be honest, some of Germany/Airbus' complaints are valid. If France/Dassault want to have the last word in the negotiations, then they must accept to shoulder a bigger share of the budget, to make that leader position clear (like the UK with GCAP).
It doesn't really make sense to ask for more decision making power if the funding is equal between both countries, or worse if Germany brings more funds.

We can say candid stuff like "Dassault/Thales/Safran have more expertise", but since they won't be sharing a lot of their IP, France must bring something else to the table, and that's money. Literally shoulder the majority of the funding. Only then Germany will accept to sit in the backseat.

In the end, both sides are wrong and right at the same time. You would just have expected these issues to have been sorted out years ago.

Edit: also about a potential German-Swedish option, I know many are skeptical but with Germany's deep pockets, it could happen. Will it be easy? No. Will it be ready for 2040? No. But should it succeed (even if slightly inferior to GCAP/FCAS), the gains for the German MIC's skills will be massive.
 
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To be honest, some of Germany/Airbus' complaints are valid. If France/Dassault want to have the last word in the negotiations, then they must accept to shoulder a bigger share of the budget, to make that leader position clear (like the UK with GCAP).
It doesn't really make sense to ask for more decision making power if the funding is equal between both countries, or worse if Germany brings more funds.
We can say candid stuff like "Dassault/Thales/Safran have more expertise", but since they won't be sharing a lot of their IP, France must bring something else to the table, and that's money. Literally shoulder the majority of the funding. Only then Germany will accept to sit in the backseat.
In the end, both sides are wrong and right at the same time. You would just have expected these issues to have been sorted out years ago.
I think this problem was solved once atleast on the goverment side....
Edit: also about a potential German-Swedish option, I know many are skeptical but with Germany's deep pockets, it could happen. Will it be easy? No. Will it be ready for 2040? No. But should it succeed (even if slightly inferior to GCAP/FCAS), the gains for the German MIC's skills will be massive.
Yeah any solution with sweden and other partner would take more time but is more than possible. An needed expertise could be bought that it will be costly.
 
Or rather, what they thought they could buy.
Well if both say yes thats we trade in the agreement then ins could think they could buy it but then again if nintendo can sell you a product you don't own then others can do that too.
Do we know the full extend of it?
 
Yeah any solution with sweden and other partner would take more time but is more than possible. An needed expertise could be bought that it will be costly.
Isn’t it kind of ironic that some German commentators seem OK with the idea of funding Saab or BAE to get access to their expertise, but not Dassault? And would Saab or BAe’s contribution come with fewer « black boxes » around their proprietary intellectual property?

Somehow everyone piling on FCAS and cheering on the alternatives seems to be ignoring the fact that these alternatives will all likely produce a *worse* industrial return for Germany.
 
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I have a few questions in mind: who would lead a German-Swedish collaboration? If it's 50-50, could Sweden commit to such huge budget (several times more than what the Gripen cost them)? If Germany brought most of the funding, how would they fare in the lead role with Saab having more experience in airframe design? Do German and Swedish needs even match?

And if France went the solo route, what would the probability of Spain joining them as a junior partner be? I think the Scorpene may have killed future joint programs between the two...
A Rafale F5 order from Spain would fix the relationship though haha

I think that if Germany and Sweden were to partner, Belgium would join them over joining the French program.
 
Isn’t it kind of ironic that some German commentators seem OK with the idea of funding Saab or BAE to get access to their expertise, but not Dassault? And would Saab or BAe’s contribution come with fewer « black boxes » around their proprietary intellectual property?
Well in my humble opinion this wouldn't be ironic as long as they have an extensive know how transfer and no black boxes. Also my point was that when sweden and germany (with any other nation) working on the project need help for something which they don't have the time to develop themself then they could buy that know how
Somehow everyone piling on FCAS and cheering on the alternatives seems to be ignoring the fact that these alternatives will all likely produce a *worse* industrial return for Germany.
As long as it doesn't happen we likely never know what the outcome will be.

Then again im all for the current FCAS/SCAF constellation
 
And who would make the engines? Rolls-Royce? America's GE or P&W? Surely France would not be willing to help the German-Swede consortium in their competition with France.

Perhaps another consortium akin to Eurojet? At present Eurojet GmbH is controlled by MTU, Rolls-Royce Holdings (RRD & ITP Aero); and Avio SpA. Substitute GKN's Volvo Aero for Avio and you've got your German-Swedish engine consortium.
 
Perhaps another consortium akin to Eurojet? At present Eurojet GmbH is controlled by MTU, Rolls-Royce Holdings (RRD & ITP Aero); and Avio SpA. Substitute GKN's Volvo Aero for Avio and you've got your German-Swedish engine consortium.
Eurojet is just a shell (like many other JVs), it doesn’t bring any actual design ability. The design work was done by the partner companies, which in this case means 54% of all of Eurojet’s work was done by RR in the UK and Avio in Italy.

So... I imagine it would require UK and Italian approval to reuse those resources, and anyway those companies will be busy working on the GCAP engine.
 
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I don't know compagnies that would rescind on a billion euro contract arguing they are too busy... Strange idea you have there.
 
Many of the article's claims aren't backed by any sources or public statements elsewhere, so I struggle with their credibility.

- The 1st point about 2/3rds work share has been discredited. It's been clarified that Dassault & France are not challenging the work share, just asking for clear decision rights.​
The "2/3 work share" is false. It has been said by Trappier himself.

the 2/3 is, at max, linked to the prototyp using up to 2/3 of components coming from the Rafale spare parts bank, as for exemple the engine (more exactly probably a derivative of the M88), for intelectual property problems (EJ200 for exemple is not german or spanish. It can't be used without the formal agreement of the 2 others).

The workshare of the serially produce jet will probably be determined by the number of jet purchased (where Germany excel in saying they will purchase a higher number than reality. Already seen with EF2000 and A400M) or a 1/3, 1/3 , 1/3.
 
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A solution may be to have 2 differents jets, with the same engine (or engine range), and the same others pillars of the SCAF (same cloud, same weapons, same ucav...) because at least at this time the sole problem is the jet itself.
One driven by Dassault, the other driven by... Airbus for Germany and Spain.
After all the frame is not what is the costlier in a jet.
 
Eurojet is just a shell (like many other JVs), it doesn’t bring any actual design ability. The design work was done by the partner companies, which in this case means 54% of all of Eurojet’s work was done by RR in the UK and Avio in Italy.

So... I imagine it would require UK and Italian approval to reuse those resources, and anyway those companies will be busy working on the GCAP engine.
RRoyce and the UK Government are lobbying the South Koreans for the co-development of a new engine.
They are also doing the same with India for the AMCA.
Just replace "South Korea" with "Germany".



Cheers
 
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