Would Be Logically Feasible & Worthy for Sino-Iranian Industrial Military Espionage Of NATO-EU & Aligned countries ?

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TheRejectionist

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Let's say that Iran and China want to upgrade their navy, army, air force and so on. How much would be worthy and logical to steal military secrets,projects and more from NATO or NATO-friendly countries (example : Japan, Taiwan and others) to upgrade what they already have ?

@Orionblamblam in my previous science fiction thread said that unless someone knows all gritty nitty details and reproduce the method of production and more, stealing military secrets and schematics and projects they are not gonna manage to do get the same "product".

Others expressed a similar conclusions.

Would the manage to do something with them if they get them?
 
It can't hurt to get all the info you can. But if you're starting from nothing, you need a *lot* of info to make the info you have worthwhile. Tell someone in the Victorian age that they need to manufacture such and such part out of titanium or carbon fiber, they'll be shit out of luck. Give WWII Germany an iPhone, they won't be able to read the software or even properly examine the microchips, much less understand or reproduce them.

But if you are "near peer" technologically and industrially, then stealing stuff can be very, very helpful.
 
It can't hurt to get all the info you can. But if you're starting from nothing, you need a *lot* of info to make the info you have worthwhile. Tell someone in the Victorian age that they need to manufacture such and such part out of titanium or carbon fiber, they'll be shit out of luck. Give WWII Germany an iPhone, they won't be able to read the software or even properly examine the microchips, much less understand or reproduce them.

But if you are "near peer" technologically and industrially, then stealing stuff can be very, very helpful.
Do you think Iran and China are starting from nothing or are they could be somewhat (at least) near peer ?

In the case of Iran , would this videos would be of help to you to make an assement on Iran ?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQSe0CkoZJQ


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ase0-r_p6VI


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd9OQOK6HxU
 
Do you think Iran and China are starting from nothing or are they could be somewhat (at least) near peer ?
China, yes, Iran, no. Iran isn't even good as mockup manufacture. China is decent at copying stuff, but their copies have so far tended to be pretty inferior. This could be due to inferior materials tech, but seems more likely to be due to an inferior quality control and corruption culture.

If the CIA was smart, they'd let the Chinese steal certain secrets. Secrets that, when the Chinese attempt to copy them, unleash little surprises.
 
Do you think Iran and China are starting from nothing or are they could be somewhat (at least) near peer ?
China, yes, Iran, no. Iran isn't even good as mockup manufacture. China is decent at copying stuff, but their copies have so far tended to be pretty inferior. This could be due to inferior materials tech, but seems more likely to be due to an inferior quality control and corruption culture.

If the CIA was smart, they'd let the Chinese steal certain secrets. Secrets that, when the Chinese attempt to copy them, unleash little surprises.

  1. What would need for Iran to become near peer and just not being good at mockup?
  2. Quality control and corruption. So not even the industry that supposedly would help the country in war gets spared I see.
  3. Ok I don't follow your last sentence. I think I am missing something...
 
[*]What would need for Iran to become near peer and just not being good at mockup?

An alternate timeline. Iran is a relatively small country with few options to become both an industrial and a technological powerhouse. They'd need *decades* of modernization not only of sci-tech, but *culture.* Nobody who thinks that anti-scientific superstition makes a good basis for government and society is going to be creating cutting-edge science on their own.


[*]Ok I don't follow your last sentence. I think I am missing something...

Read, learn, imagine the possibilities:
https://www.wired.com/2004/03/soviets-burned-by-cia-hackers/

For the Iranians or the Chinese, perhaps something the CIA could do is allow them to steal, say, nanotechnology. Nanotech that escapes and promptly converts Beijing or Tehran into craters of gray goo. Even better, gray goo that spouts blasphemy at 180 decibels. More realistically - and safer - would be to let them steal nuclear-industrial tech... and sit back and watch their shiny new nuclear weapons labs melt down and explode, scattering fallout all over their countryside. This will set back their nuclear programs AND screw up their economies directly through damage to infrastructure, damage to their environment (cutting back on agriculture and even transport), by killing large numbers of their experts and their general populations, AND by turning the world against them.

If they complain, point out that they not only *stole* the information, they weren't even smart enough to fully understand it.

trollface.jpg
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
 
China would certainly benefit from continuing to steal military secrets, just to help keep up. But China's issues right now with military hardware aren't, IMO, really solvable by stealing more secrets and conducting reverse-engineering. They tend to lie more in the manufacturing and implementation side - for example, it doesn't do them any good to steal engine technology when their biggest bottleneck is not design but actually making the darn things.

Iran, as Orion said, is too far behind to make use of the information.
 
Numerous Chinese born engineers and spies have been sent home - from the USA - for allegedly stealing military and technological secrets.
Since China already builds most of the USA's consumer electronics. it is not that far a leap to copying the latest military hardware. The real question is about quality control in Chinese factories.
The other issue is training Chinese pilots and sailors how to operate new equipment. Sure China can build an aircr4aft carrier, but how many years will it take them to learn how to launch multiple strikes as quickly as the US Navy who have been sailing carriers for almost a hundred years.
Iran is far behind in manufacturing tooling and knowledge.
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
 
[*]What would need for Iran to become near peer and just not being good at mockup?

An alternate timeline. Iran is a relatively small country with few options to become both an industrial and a technological powerhouse. They'd need *decades* of modernization not only of sci-tech, but *culture.* Nobody who thinks that anti-scientific superstition makes a good basis for government and society is going to be creating cutting-edge science on their own.


[*]Ok I don't follow your last sentence. I think I am missing something...

Read, learn, imagine the possibilities:
https://www.wired.com/2004/03/soviets-burned-by-cia-hackers/

For the Iranians or the Chinese, perhaps something the CIA could do is allow them to steal, say, nanotechnology. Nanotech that escapes and promptly converts Beijing or Tehran into craters of gray goo. Even better, gray goo that spouts blasphemy at 180 decibels. More realistically - and safer - would be to let them steal nuclear-industrial tech... and sit back and watch their shiny new nuclear weapons labs melt down and explode, scattering fallout all over their countryside. This will set back their nuclear programs AND screw up their economies directly through damage to infrastructure, damage to their environment (cutting back on agriculture and even transport), by killing large numbers of their experts and their general populations, AND by turning the world against them.

If they complain, point out that they not only *stole* the information, they weren't even smart enough to fully understand it.

trollface.jpg
China would certainly benefit from continuing to steal military secrets, just to help keep up. But China's issues right now with military hardware aren't, IMO, really solvable by stealing more secrets and conducting reverse-engineering. They tend to lie more in the manufacturing and implementation side - for example, it doesn't do them any good to steal engine technology when their biggest bottleneck is not design but actually making the darn things.

Iran, as Orion said, is too far behind to make use of the information.
Numerous Chinese born engineers and spies have been sent home - from the USA - for allegedly stealing military and technological secrets.
Since China already builds most of the USA's consumer electronics. it is not that far a leap to copying the latest military hardware. The real question is about quality control in Chinese factories.
The other issue is training Chinese pilots and sailors how to operate new equipment. Sure China can build an aircr4aft carrier, but how many years will it take them to learn how to launch multiple strikes as quickly as the US Navy who have been sailing carriers for almost a hundred years.
Iran is far behind in manufacturing tooling and knowledge.
Basically, if they want to get close they have to start from stratch -> tooling, manufacturing and so on. And change their mentality at least enough to not scare away potential inventors for new gear or similar.
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Instead for the future ? What could be a potential scenario?
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Iranians did not need anybody to “convert” their country into a modern society for them, they were more than capable of doing it on their own. Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah had already set this into motion. If it weren’t for the shenanigans of certain Western governments and the Shah’s personal reluctance to crackdown on islamists, Iran would no doubt be a modern society today.https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution
 
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Let's say that Iran and China want to upgrade their navy, army, air force and so on. How much would be worthy and logical to steal military secrets,projects and more from NATO or NATO-friendly countries (example : Japan, Taiwan and others) to upgrade what they already have ?
China have little need for this (but of course still do it, since it's always a good idea to look after opponent new ideas). Iran... Well, Iran have much worse tech base, but they are quite inventive and have really good engineers, so they do quite smart things with what they have. Their drones are as good as any Western ones, for example.
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Iranians did not need anybody to “convert” their country into a modern society for them, they were more than capable of doing it on their own. Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah had already set this into motion. If it weren’t for the shenanigans of certain Western governments and the Shah’s personal reluctance to crackdown on islamists, Iran would no doubt be a modern society today.https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
 
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
Essentially yes. Islamists just realized in time, that they would be next - after Shah's refime repressed liberals, communists, nationalists, and everyone else who was not happy with the deep corruption and indifference to the people's interest of Shah's government.
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Was Persia chopped up in WWI? I thought territorial losses were much earlier.
 
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I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Iranians did not need anybody to “convert” their country into a modern society for them, they were more than capable of doing it on their own. Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah had already set this into motion. If it weren’t for the shenanigans of certain Western governments and the Shah’s personal reluctance to crackdown on islamists, Iran would no doubt be a modern society today.https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
Essentially yes. Islamists just realized in time, that they would be next - after Shah's refime repressed liberals, communists, nationalists, and everyone else who was not happy with the deep corruption and indifference to the people's interest of Shah's government.
Guys I know plenty of this stuff and it is...an history topic not speculation. I know plenty about of these fact since where I go to study plenty of Iranians who told me about their history and plus I am passionate about recent history (1900-2000 approximetly).
I would give my own take but I rather not get off topic.
@Dilandu so according to you, how could they improve their base ? What could they create in a span of 20 years with what they have (besides drones)? Create new APCs, MBTs or have their own sixth generation fighter?
 
Has anyone but me noticed that much recent fighting has been along the ancient Silk Roads?
Those Silk Roads used to move luxury goods like silk, tea, spices and opium between China and Western Europe.
Nowadays they move less legal goods like sex slaves, marijuana, opium, hashish, gems, precious metals, consumer electronics, pirated DVDs, knock-off clothing, etc. from Western China, through Afghanistan, through Tajikistan, through all the other 'stans, around the Aral and Black Seas then up through the Balkans to markets in Europe. By-passing the Aral and Black Seas to the north requires going through Ukraine. OTOH by-passing to the south requires transiting Iran and Turkey and the former Yugoslavia.

"The Whistleblower" written by a United Nations contract police-woman (from the USA) provided valuable insights into how criminal gangs coerced U.N. peace-keepers into helping them move sex slaves across borders (e.g. between Serbia and Croatia).
 
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I fail to see the point of this thread on this forum. The answer to the original question is also pretty obvious so why ask it.
For me it isn't. I am not a en engineer or expert... I am unfortunatly a smooth brain compared to like...100% of the posters of this forum.
 
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I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Iranians did not need anybody to “convert” their country into a modern society for them, they were more than capable of doing it on their own. Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah had already set this into motion. If it weren’t for the shenanigans of certain Western governments and the Shah’s personal reluctance to crackdown on islamists, Iran would no doubt be a modern society today.https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
Its amazing how you can type so many words yet repeat nothing but idiotic falsehoods, Islamist/Communist propaganda, and just straight up gaslighting. And I can instantly tell you are not Iranian because no Iranian with more than 2 working brain cells would actually believe this garbage. The Shah and his father were both patriots who worked tirelessly to improve their nation and to prevent it and its people from being repressed by foreign powers. They gave women equal rights, built the first proper railroads, schools, universities, hospitals, boosted illiteracy, nationalized the oil industry, made Iranian society a meritorious one where anyone could succeed regardless of ethnicity or religion, and united a completely fractured nation whose territory was under occupation by foreign powers and rebel groups.

I can say with full confidence that without the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran would hardly even exist. Maybe best case scenario it would be another Afghanistan.
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Literally word-for-word Islamist propaganda. There's literally ZERO evidence for any of this. Up until the revolution, the vast majority of people adored the Shah, my family included(and no we were not rich nor members of the so called 'elite'). Even afterwards a significant portion of the population was sympathetic but was too scared to admit it.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense;
Western governments thought the Shah was some naïve, vapid puppet who they could use to further their interests. Once the oil crisis happened, they realized that he was genuinely a patriot who, when push came to shove, would act in his nations interest's first, and jumped at the opportunity to remove him. Hence, their support of Khomeini, who they believed was a useful idiot. Unfortunately for them, Khomeini turned out to just be an idiot and a staunchly anti-Western one at that.
and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
What on earth are you on about?! The Shah literally told the army from the beginning not to harm the people and literally abdicated his throne in order to avoid cracking down on them! What kind of a "brutal" King would do that? Especially considering the Army was still relatively intact at that moment and could have easily ended the Revolution.
There were plenty of people in the U.S. government who were willing to support the Shah(Brzezinski and Haig for instance) but were overruled by those who wanted their own puppets in power. The Imperial Armed Forces were pretty much fully behind him but were convinced by Heiser not to step in and end the riots.

I'm going to end this by apologizing to the mods for taking this thread off topic, but as someone who has had family members tortured and executed by Anti-Shah Islamists, I cannot stand it when people repeat their propaganda. Its absolutely infuriating that these beliefs are still commonplace today. And I can tell you that even though its been 40 years since his passing, the majority of people in Iran are thankful for what the Shah did and would take him back in a heartbeat.
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Iranians did not need anybody to “convert” their country into a modern society for them, they were more than capable of doing it on their own. Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah had already set this into motion. If it weren’t for the shenanigans of certain Western governments and the Shah’s personal reluctance to crackdown on islamists, Iran would no doubt be a modern society today.https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
Its amazing how you can type so many words yet repeat nothing but idiotic falsehoods, Islamist/Communist propaganda, and just straight up gaslighting. And I can instantly tell you are not Iranian because no Iranian with more than 2 working brain cells would actually believe this garbage. The Shah and his father were both patriots who worked tirelessly to improve their nation and to prevent it and its people from being repressed by foreign powers. They gave women equal rights, built the first proper railroads, schools, universities, hospitals, boosted illiteracy, nationalized the oil industry, made Iranian society a meritorious one where anyone could succeed regardless of ethnicity or religion, and united a completely fractured nation whose territory was under occupation by foreign powers and rebel groups.

I can say with full confidence that without the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran would hardly even exist. Maybe best case scenario it would be another Afghanistan.
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Literally word-for-word Islamist propaganda. There's literally ZERO evidence for any of this. Up until the revolution, the vast majority of people adored the Shah, my family included(and no we were not rich nor members of the so called 'elite'). Even afterwards a significant portion of the population was sympathetic but was too scared to admit it.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense;
Western governments thought the Shah was some naïve, vapid puppet who they could use to further their interests. Once the oil crisis happened, they realized that he was genuinely a patriot who, when push came to shove, would act in his nations interest's first, and jumped at the opportunity to remove him. Hence, their support of Khomeini, who they believed was a useful idiot. Unfortunately for them, Khomeini turned out to just be an idiot and a staunchly anti-Western one at that.
and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
What on earth are you on about?! The Shah literally told the army from the beginning not to harm the people and literally abdicated his throne in order to avoid cracking down on them! What kind of a "brutal" King would do that? Especially considering the Army was still relatively intact at that moment and could have easily ended the Revolution.
There were plenty of people in the U.S. government who were willing to support the Shah(Brzezinski and Haig for instance) but were overruled by those who wanted their own puppets in power. The Imperial Armed Forces were pretty much fully behind him but were convinced by Heiser not to step in and end the riots.

I'm going to end this by apologizing to the mods for taking this thread off topic, but as someone who has had family members tortured and executed by Anti-Shah Islamists, I cannot stand it when people repeat their propaganda. Its absolutely infuriating that these beliefs are still commonplace today. And I can tell you that even though its been 40 years since his passing, the majority of people in Iran are thankful for what the Shah did and would take him back in a heartbeat.
I understand your strong feelings and enmity to the regime that took the Shahs place.

But unfortunately what you are saying is simply not based on reality but based on your particular highly biased perception and narrative.

I sympathise with what you and your family have gone through and you have every right to hate the forces that seized and still control Iran (I am no apologist for them).
But the Shahs regime (and the Shah himself) is (almost - apparently) universally recognised as having been deeply flawed and very much contributing to their own downfall. And it really goes without saying that’s not saying it was universally bad or without achievements.
 
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I understand your strong feelings and enmity to the regime that took the Shahs place.

But unfortunately what you are saying is simply not based on reality but based on your particular highly biased perception and narrative.

I sympathise with what you and your family have gone through and you have every right to hate the forces that seized and still control Iran (I am no apologist for them).
But the Shahs regime (and the Shah himself) is (almost - apparently) universally recognised as having been deeply flawed and very much contributing to their own downfall. And it really goes without saying that’s not saying it was universally bad or without achievements.
You are perfectly entitled to your opinion. Its a right in a free world that many take for granted.

And if you want to believe the opinions of so called "pundits" and "experts" who say that the Shah was "brutal" and "terrorized the people" that is also entirely up to you.

Just know that for many of us ordinary Iranians, the Pahlavi Dynasty was the only time in our lives, and the first time in centuries, where you could succeed in life regardless of your ethnicity, religion, place of birth, what your last name was, etc. It didn't matter if you were Persian, Arab, Kurd, Bahai, Armenian, Lur, Shiite, Sunni, Christian, Zoroastrian, or Jew as long as you worked hard you had a chance. It may not sound like much for some people but for us, it was a pretty goddamn big deal.

I can say with certainty that if wasn't for the Pahlavi Kings, we would probably still be living in a mud hut in the middle of nowhere, without electricity or running water and with only a donkey as a mode of transport. So for that reason, despite the fact that, yes, both of these men where flawed and contributed to their own downfalls, we are still eternally grateful to them and view them in very high regard.
 
I wouldn't write Iranians off. Prior to the fall of the Shah some very good mathematics and software people came out of there.

So it's conceivable that an AH Persia Empire might manage quite a bit.
Entirely possible that an alternate WWI that resulted in Persia being not chopped up and being instead converted into a reasonably modern society could ahve led it to being a force to be reckoned with today. But once the post-WWI re-organization of the Middle East happened, it became real difficult for any nation there to amount to a damn thing.
Iranians did not need anybody to “convert” their country into a modern society for them, they were more than capable of doing it on their own. Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah had already set this into motion. If it weren’t for the shenanigans of certain Western governments and the Shah’s personal reluctance to crackdown on islamists, Iran would no doubt be a modern society today.https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution
That’s far too sympathetic a view of the Shah’s miss-rule during this period (almost to to the point of misrepresenting the actual history).
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense; and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
The Islamists then brutally turned on the rest of Iranian society (that had also been part of the revolution and happy to see the end of the Shah) once they had captured the leavers of power.
Its amazing how you can type so many words yet repeat nothing but idiotic falsehoods, Islamist/Communist propaganda, and just straight up gaslighting. And I can instantly tell you are not Iranian because no Iranian with more than 2 working brain cells would actually believe this garbage. The Shah and his father were both patriots who worked tirelessly to improve their nation and to prevent it and its people from being repressed by foreign powers. They gave women equal rights, built the first proper railroads, schools, universities, hospitals, boosted illiteracy, nationalized the oil industry, made Iranian society a meritorious one where anyone could succeed regardless of ethnicity or religion, and united a completely fractured nation whose territory was under occupation by foreign powers and rebel groups.

I can say with full confidence that without the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran would hardly even exist. Maybe best case scenario it would be another Afghanistan.
Essentially under the Shahs Iran was an ineffective police state attempting to destroy their enemies through repression and terror but instead fuelling resentment and hatred and alienating almost everyone within Iran.
Literally word-for-word Islamist propaganda. There's literally ZERO evidence for any of this. Up until the revolution, the vast majority of people adored the Shah, my family included(and no we were not rich nor members of the so called 'elite'). Even afterwards a significant portion of the population was sympathetic but was too scared to admit it.
Western governments propped up the Shah but he was responsible for his own actions and he “lost” Iran in that sense;
Western governments thought the Shah was some naïve, vapid puppet who they could use to further their interests. Once the oil crisis happened, they realized that he was genuinely a patriot who, when push came to shove, would act in his nations interest's first, and jumped at the opportunity to remove him. Hence, their support of Khomeini, who they believed was a useful idiot. Unfortunately for them, Khomeini turned out to just be an idiot and a staunchly anti-Western one at that.
and in relation to his actions it was far more a case of too much brutality leaving him with almost no allies left to support him rather than not being tough enough.
What on earth are you on about?! The Shah literally told the army from the beginning not to harm the people and literally abdicated his throne in order to avoid cracking down on them! What kind of a "brutal" King would do that? Especially considering the Army was still relatively intact at that moment and could have easily ended the Revolution.
There were plenty of people in the U.S. government who were willing to support the Shah(Brzezinski and Haig for instance) but were overruled by those who wanted their own puppets in power. The Imperial Armed Forces were pretty much fully behind him but were convinced by Heiser not to step in and end the riots.

I'm going to end this by apologizing to the mods for taking this thread off topic, but as someone who has had family members tortured and executed by Anti-Shah Islamists, I cannot stand it when people repeat their propaganda. Its absolutely infuriating that these beliefs are still commonplace today. And I can tell you that even though its been 40 years since his passing, the majority of people in Iran are thankful for what the Shah did and would take him back in a heartbeat.
I understand your strong feelings and enmity to the regime that took the Shahs place.

But unfortunately what you are saying is simply not based on reality but based on your particular highly biased perception and narrative.

I sympathise with what you and your family have gone through and you have every right to hate the forces that seized and still control Iran (I am no apologist for them).
But the Shahs regime (and the Shah himself) is (almost - apparently) universally recognised as having been deeply flawed and very much contributing to their own downfall. And it really goes without saying that’s not saying it was universally bad or without achievements.
I understand your strong feelings and enmity to the regime that took the Shahs place.

But unfortunately what you are saying is simply not based on reality but based on your particular highly biased perception and narrative.

I sympathise with what you and your family have gone through and you have every right to hate the forces that seized and still control Iran (I am no apologist for them).
But the Shahs regime (and the Shah himself) is (almost - apparently) universally recognised as having been deeply flawed and very much contributing to their own downfall. And it really goes without saying that’s not saying it was universally bad or without achievements.
You are perfectly entitled to your opinion. Its a right in a free world that many take for granted.

And if you want to believe the opinions of so called "pundits" and "experts" who say that the Shah was "brutal" and "terrorized the people" that is also entirely up to you.

Just know that for many of us ordinary Iranians, the Pahlavi Dynasty was the only time in our lives, and the first time in centuries, where you could succeed in life regardless of your ethnicity, religion, place of birth, what your last name was, etc. It didn't matter if you were Persian, Arab, Kurd, Bahai, Armenian, Lur, Shiite, Sunni, Christian, Zoroastrian, or Jew as long as you worked hard you had a chance. It may not sound like much for some people but for us, it was a pretty goddamn big deal.

I can say with certainty that if wasn't for the Pahlavi Kings, we would probably still be living in a mud hut in the middle of nowhere, without electricity or running water and with only a donkey as a mode of transport. So for that reason, despite the fact that, yes, both of these men where flawed and contributed to their own downfalls, we are still eternally grateful to them and view them in very high regard.
Normally I enjoy this kind of lively but respectful debate and would encourage to continue it. However, I don't think the forum of secretprojects.co.uk is the best for it, not to mention that if I remember it was against the rules (or came close to be against the rules).

Returning to the subject @kaiserd @njiiaf could you guys give me any insight on the topic of the thread ?
 
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You are probably right. I’ve said my piece and if the mods wish, they can remove it. I won’t object.

As for the original topic, I’m far from an expert here. But the Iranian military is in a pretty sorry state with most of its equipment being obsolete.

Thankfully for them, there’s a lot of ingenuity and talent among Iranian engineers and so they have succeeded in creating something of a domestic industry to produce, among other things, AAMs and double tailed F-5s. So for them I don’t think having access to industrial espionage and technical information about things like seeker tech and missile motors is going to do any harm.

It won’t get them anywhere near Western/NATO level though. For that, you would need sanctions to be removed and billions upon billions of dollars investment to be poured into the country to even have a chance. At most it will slightly improve current tech and may allow them to exploit weaknesses in NATO tech if possible.

As for China, I doubt it will help much since they have already reached parity with the West in some regards and are more than capable of creating domestic designs to rival western ones in most areas. Though again, it wouldn’t hurt and would allow them the opportunity to exploit weaknesses in western technology just like the U.S. did when it received Tolkachev’s info on Soviet tech
Edit:
@Orionblamblam in my previous science fiction thread said that unless someone knows all gritty nitty details and reproduce the method of production and more, stealing military secrets and schematics and projects they are not gonna manage to do get the same "product".
This is absolutely correct and I’ll give you an example. Iran reverse engineered the AIM-54 Phoenix and called it the Fakour-90. But IIRC, it’s been reported that the Fakour-90 is inferior in performance to the original Phoenix
 
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Iran would need to invest in....everything.
Starting with education. From childhood to University to specialist educational establishments in aeronautical matters, electronics, computing, manufacturing, engineering, testing, materials science, Communications...etc....
Facilities for R&D
Metal production
Manufacturing
Precision Manufacturing
Electronics
Testing Facilities
Communications systems
Etc....

It would need to work up to increasingly complex and modern systems design, development and production based on increasingly sophisticated requirements engineering based on ever more comprehensive analysis and data gathering efforts.

Look at India and Tejas. Basically a 1990's light fighter. But the value to India of driving this forward is the increasingly improved understanding of what can be achieved, understood, and achieved. That will feed into the next generation of aircraft designs and products.

Another example is Turkey. Look at how long it's taken, how wide the effort across multiple domains.

Iran needs that to turn itself into what you want....

20 years.....bit of a tall order. Try 50 years. Shah gets bottled up as a constitutional monarch and a Spanish like process of democratisation.
 
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