What if Iran never had a revolution?

The Shah showed a lot of interest in the British helicopter carrying escort cruiser - aka Invincible class

"In the mid-1970s, the Shah of Iran expressed interest in acquiring three Invincible-class ships and a fleet of twenty-five Sea Harriers to provide fleet defence. When the Iranian Navycould not commit to providing sufficient personnel for manning the vessels, the ship order was cancelled in 1976."

(1979, Aviation & Marine International magazine)

Regards
Pioneer
What may have resulted:

SeaHarrierIran1.jpg

SeaHarrierIran2.jpg

SeaHarrierIran3.jpg
 
The Shah showed a lot of interest in the British helicopter carrying escort cruiser - aka Invincible class

"In the mid-1970s, the Shah of Iran expressed interest in acquiring three Invincible-class ships and a fleet of twenty-five Sea Harriers to provide fleet defence. When the Iranian Navycould not commit to providing sufficient personnel for manning the vessels, the ship order was cancelled in 1976."

(1979, Aviation & Marine International magazine)

Regards
Pioneer
What may have resulted:

SeaHarrierIran1.jpg

SeaHarrierIran2.jpg

SeaHarrierIran3.jpg
Off the 3 posted, i like the 1990 version.
 
One potentially very significant effect of the Pahlavi regime continuing would be the impact on the Iraqi nuclear weapons program.

Without the Iran-Iraq war, Operation SCORCH SWORD wouldn't take place in 1980; this might or might not have delayed the Osiraq reactor becoming operational. Or rather, Israeli intervention - the Israeli government apparently having been planning an air raid on the reactor since 1979.

In OTL, Operation OPERA had significant Iranian support, including aerial reconnaissance, a preparatory air raid on the H-3 air base, and arrangements for Israeli aircraft to divert to Tabriz Air Base in an emergency. The extent to which Iran would support such an operation in the alternate timeline is open to question: on the one hand, it's very unlikely that Iraq would be at war with Iran; on the other hand, Israel would likely have better relations with the Shah's government than with the Islamic Republic

If the strike does not go ahead, it is possible that Iraq's nuclear weapons program is accelerated. Even if you accept the argument that Osiraq itself had no military role, the knowledge and experience gained would have benefited Iraqi nuclear scientists, and Iraq may have felt that it didn't need to conceal the program as comprehensively.

Alternatively, the absence of the attack might mean that Saddam Hussein does not feel the need to develop the ability to deter Israel. In that scenario, and especially without an Iran-Iraq war, the Iraqi conventional and WMD build-up of the 1980s is greatly reduced, although likely not entirely: the Iranian buildup would demand some kind of response. In either case, if the attack doesn't happen, the international backlash against Israel never happens, and UNSC Resolution 487 is never passed.

If Operation OPERA does go ahead, on the other hand, it's likely to use A-4s instead of F-16s - the aircraft used historically were originally ordered by Iran and diverted to Israel after the revolution. Without a revolution, Israel wouldn't have got F-16s as quickly. This is likely to impact on the capability of the strike force, though I'm not sure exactly how. The result might be greater likelihood of losses, or reduced likelihood of destroying the target. Without the war against Iran, Iraqi defences would likely be less alert, but also wouldn't be as focussed towards the east; this could go either way. But, Iraq would also likely feel more willing to retaliate against Israel in this scenario.

In any of these cases, the subsequent impact on regional politics is potentially immense. And, with no Iran-Iraq war, it's probable that there's no subsequent Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. In turn, that means no massive American troop presence in Saudi Arabia to deter Iraq, and less anti-American sentiment in al-Qaeda and the wider Islamic world. Which, in turn, means that the entire post-1991 geopolitical environment is different.

There would of course be impacts on equipment sales and on the defence industrial base in various countries, but they're far less interesting than the geopolitical and grand strategic changes. And I haven't even touched on the possible impact of Iran developing an economy comparable with many European countries, which was possible if reforms had been better implemented. There's plenty of blame to go around there, of course.
 
If Operation OPERA does go ahead, on the other hand, it's likely to use A-4s instead of F-16s - the aircraft used historically were originally ordered by Iran and diverted to Israel after the revolution. Without a revolution, Israel wouldn't have got F-16s as quickly. This is likely to impact on the capability of the strike force, though I'm not sure exactly how.
Or F-15s (first acquired in 1977) and F-4s.
 
If Operation OPERA does go ahead, on the other hand, it's likely to use A-4s instead of F-16s - the aircraft used historically were originally ordered by Iran and diverted to Israel after the revolution. Without a revolution, Israel wouldn't have got F-16s as quickly. This is likely to impact on the capability of the strike force, though I'm not sure exactly how.
Or F-15s (first acquired in 1977) and F-4s.
They'd been training for the operation using A-4s with F-15 escort before they got F-16s.
 
Regarding Iran and F-15, is there clearer info as to they were indeed bought, how many and when were the first examples supposed to arrive? From various bits and pieces i've over the years the numbers quoted were either 53 or 90, and earlier in this topic F-15C was specified as the variant Iran was to buy.

And same for F-18, when where the first examples supposed to arrive?

My own favourite iranian scenario is for the revolution to be postponed a little bit so that Iran received their initial lots at least of F-16s and F-15, AIM-7Fs and AIM-9Ls and when the new leadership comes, have F-14s, F-15s, and F-16s sold/given to USSR and China for hefty payments, military and economic assistance and whatnot.

Or alternatively at least have a split buy of F-15s and F-14s, maybe the iranians realize they were duped by that F-14 display stunt or whatever. so by 1979 they received say 50 F-14 and 30 F-15.

As i understand in OTL Iran DID NOT give any F-14s to USSR, though the soviets tried very hard to court Iran to come to their side, and were prepared to ditch Saddam, hence the embargo on weapons sales to Iran until 1982 when Iran started invading iraqi territory after taking back it's own land occupied by the iraqis from 1980. Khomeini was just too fanatic for his own and Iran's good.
 
Regarding Iran and F-15, is there clearer info as to they were indeed bought, how many and when were the first examples supposed to arrive? From various bits and pieces i've over the years the numbers quoted were either 53 or 90, and earlier in this topic F-15C was specified as the variant Iran was to buy.

And same for F-18, when where the first examples supposed to arrive?

My own favourite iranian scenario is for the revolution to be postponed a little bit so that Iran received their initial lots at least of F-16s and F-15, AIM-7Fs and AIM-9Ls and when the new leadership comes, have F-14s, F-15s, and F-16s sold/given to USSR and China for hefty payments, military and economic assistance and whatnot.

Or alternatively at least have a split buy of F-15s and F-14s, maybe the iranians realize they were duped by that F-14 display stunt or whatever. so by 1979 they received say 50 F-14 and 30 F-15.

As i understand in OTL Iran DID NOT give any F-14s to USSR, though the soviets tried very hard to court Iran to come to their side, and were prepared to ditch Saddam, hence the embargo on weapons sales to Iran until 1982 when Iran started invading iraqi territory after taking back it's own land occupied by the iraqis from 1980. Khomeini was just too fanatic for his own and Iran's good.
Iran never bought any F-15s. The F-15 competed with the tomcat to become Iran's new air defense fighter and lost. There was still some talk afterwards of a small buy of F-15s to complement the tomcats and possibly to replace the Phantoms in some roles but this never progressed passed the talking stage. Similar situation for the F-18.
FYI, the decision to purchase the F-14 was made well before the infamous air show fly-off between the F-14 and F-15. The F-14's AWG-9 and Phoenix combo was simply better suited to defending Iran's vast, mountainous airspace which had spotty radar coverage. Developmental issues with the F-15 at the time also were a factor. https://theaviationgeekclub.com/former-iiaf-tomcat-pilots-tell-the-true-story-of-why-iran-picked-the-f-14-over-the-f-15/#:~:text=Iran's inability to prevent overflights,acquired the Grumman F-14.

Had the revolution not occurred, I can see a realistic scenario in which the Air Force completes its buys of 140 F-14s and 300 F-16s and purchases a small number of F-15Es to replace the phantoms in the bomb truck role. But buying hundreds and hundreds of -14s, 15s, 16s, 18s, etc. like some commentators suggest would have been virtually impossible. The Air Force did not have the personnel or the infrastructure to operate and sustain this many advanced aircraft of different types. Ditto for the post-revolution Air Force which lost 90%+ of its senior personnel and 50(!)% of its total personnel.
 
Had the revolution not occurred, I can see a realistic scenario in which the Air Force completes its buys of 140 F-14s and 300 F-16s and purchases a small number of F-15Es to replace the phantoms in the bomb truck role.
What the Iranian air force seems to have planned, in reality, is:
  • 80, perhaps more, F-14s - I've been searching for contemporary evidence for the additional aircraft
  • 460 F-16s, of which 300 would be new capability and 160 would be F-5 replacements
  • 250 of something to replace the Phantoms
That 'something' might have been F-15s, F-16s, or F-18s, and I suspect that by the mid-1980s it would have been looking increasingly improbable that they'd actually be ordered.
Or alternatively at least have a split buy of F-15s and F-14s, maybe the iranians realize they were duped by that F-14 display stunt or whatever. so by 1979 they received say 50 F-14 and 30 F-15.
Something like this was initially considered: 53 F-15s for four squadrons and 30 F-14s for three squadrons. It was decided that going all F-14 was a better plan.
 
What the Iranian air force seems to have planned, in reality, is:
  • 80, perhaps more, F-14s - I've been searching for contemporary evidence for the additional aircraft
  • 460 F-16s, of which 300 would be new capability and 160 would be F-5 replacements
  • 250 of something to replace the Phantoms
That 'something' might have been F-15s, F-16s, or F-18s, and I suspect that by the mid-1980s it would have been looking increasingly improbable that they'd actually be ordered.
In hindsight, if I already had 160 F-14s and 300-400 F-16s I wouldn't find it necessary to purchase 250 of an additional aircraft to replace my Phantoms. The F-16 is a very capable airframe that can punch well above its weight. But it seems like the IIAF hadn't quite realized this at that point in time, given what the F-16 was initially designed as. An additional order of F-16s, specifically the -C model perhaps equipped with sparrows in the mid-80s, would have been an excellent replacement for the Phantom fleet.

If however, they were that determined to absolutely exceed the Phantoms capabilities in all aspects then an order of F-15s isn't a bad idea. 250 is exceeding the limits of what the Air Force would have been able to operate even with its personnel and structure intact, but around a 100 would have been manageable. This is all assuming of course that the Iranian economy does well in the 80s, money is not an issue.
 
In hindsight, if I already had 160 F-14s and 300-400 F-16s I wouldn't find it necessary to purchase 250 of an additional aircraft to replace my Phantoms. The F-16 is a very capable airframe that can punch well above its weight. But it seems like the IIAF hadn't quite realized this at that point in time, given what the F-16 was initially designed as. An additional order of F-16s, specifically the -C model perhaps equipped with sparrows in the mid-80s, would have been an excellent replacement for the Phantom fleet.
Yeah, my guess is that they'd probably wind up with the F-14s, 300 F-16A/B, and 160 F-16C/D. At some point in the mid-1990s, they might look at the F-15E, partly as an F-14 replacement and partly as a long-range strike aircraft similar to the contemporary Saudi purchase.

An Iranian F-14 upgrade comparable to the F-14D is fun to think about, but I doubt it's at all realistic.
 
Plus there might be the Mirage 4000 to tempt them as a Phantom replacement.

Of course they may well have gone down the Phantom modernisation route like some other air forces did to keep them operational into the 1990s.
 
I think that Mirages (or Tornadoes, for that matter) would be a hard sell to Iran, at least as long as Mohammed Reza Shah sits on the throne; he was strongly in favour of an all-American air force.

What happens after he dies is anybody's guess. If he dies on OTL's schedule - not a given - Reza Pahlavi would be very young (19 years and 9 months). There was concern from pro-monarchist groups that he would make a poor Shah, and that his younger brother Ali Reza should be installed in his place with a regency council.
 
Of course a twist to this scenario is the Revolution taking place slightly later and thus things like below resulting:

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d3c7xey-60085a6c-1246-4bee-bc3b-125e7a9b3250.jpg


dd99wpc-93902771-d553-458b-9fbc-f6bacf20405a.jpg
 
I have never been a gambling man, but I would place a significant sum of money on the revolution being averted during the Reagan presidency. It was a uniquely Carter screwup exacerbated by Mohammad Reza Shah’s natural timidity during times of crisis. It would have been a footnote in history like the ‘63 crisis that also caused by Khomeini.

So with that in mind, can someone please make an IIAF F-35 livery? ;)
 
Ok, I just heard from Colonel Ali-Reza Namaki in an interview that Iran was planning to purchase 40 F-15s and an additional 80 F-14s for the yet-to-be established Strategic Air Command.
Edit: Correction it was the Strategic Air Defense Command
 
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