What became of the future?

My parents warned me not to get my hopes up...how I needed to focus on other things...
 
Posted Sept 17, 2021
Last week I walked into a Starbucks, I hadn't since the pandemic began. Sitting on my left was a gay couple planning a trip to Mykonos and on my right two Gothic teenagers, characterized as vampires, were handling their phones with slow movements. The rest of the clients were young Chinese students who worked with their computers as if the exam were tomorrow. I couldn't help laughing and the Gothics looked at me with disapproval. This is the future of the sixties, only Heinlein and Orwell were right.
 
That Toba eruption...
IIRC, sea-core samples indicate humans got lucky. Six months earlier or later, a lot more stuff would have ridden the seasonal Monsoon winds W/NW and dumped much ash, acid and fluorine toxins across southern Africa. As it was, looks like folk mostly thrived along the coast...

The future ? Back in the sixties, AI and controlled fusion were but a decade or two away, yes ??
At the end of the '70s, my Apple ][+ running 'Sargon', an early chess program, was a match for my father who was 'Quite Good'. Happens I could beat it because, though a much weaker player, I'd mouse-trap its limited search-depth with a 'bread-crumb' trail...

Fusion proved some-what harder beyond 'Science Fair' level.
Tokomaks and their kin get bigger and bigger and bigger, inching towards break-even. As I understand it, the Chinese, also Tokomak fans, have belatedly realised fusion sneers at even Beijing's five-year plans. They'd need lotsa fusion power to pump water up their grand aqueducts. Now, they'll have to go 'distributed renewables' along the banks. Fortunately, a mixture of wind and solar would actually suit the task. And economies of scale will help.

FWIW, I see 'Stellerators' are back in fashion, new, nimble algorithms 'evolving' configurations using 'permanent' magnets for most of the containment, electro-magnets for fine tuning. To use 'early steam' analogy, where waste steam was quenched in cylinder before condensers added, does not have to generate oodles of electro-magnet power just to break-even.

I've seen 'continental drift' and 'mega-outfloods' proven. Nucleons split to quarks. Neutrinos detected and weighed. Gravitational wave detectors grown from 'ringing' alloy cylinders to long laser-lines. Umpteen exoplanets !! Higgs ? Seems so. Dark Energy / Dark Matter ?? Not convinced, as there's enough gaps between gravity and everything else to lose the need...

What was that new take on sorta-string theory ? Something Einstein tried, but lacked the math ? 'Teleparallel' ?? If that gives but least handle on 'twisty' Gravity, be it as clunky as the ancient aeolipile or Hertzian spark-gap, the flood-gates open...
 
Fusion is one of those things that require input from another field of study to work.

In this case, superconductors. Get better superconductors and the whole thing could get wrapped up in a hurry, without it, it is like trying to build human powered flying machines: even if you could, it wouldn't have much practical use.

“The World of 1971”
Some of the predictions for 1971:

2) The “middle class” would be working high-paying skilled jobs and would make up 80% of the population
Click to expand...
Definitionally impossible. Income level that covers 80% of the population is by definition working class and not "middle" class.

Many countries have gone through rapid economic growth, especially in asia, that resulted in real income growth of multiple times over a life time.

You know what, people are still pooooooor man, because rich people's income grew faster~

There is no technological solution to zero sum competition. As other problems get solved by technology, zero sum competition is what will increasingly drive human behavior.

We'll be transition to a 100% lawyer-activist-bureaucrat society sooooon~ No machine could replace the proper righteous anger of a snowflake~
 
Your quip about human-powered flying machines is mostly correct because, IIRC, one flew the 'English Channel' in 1979. Mind you, the pilot was a real-skinny Olympic-grade cyclist, the aircraft was stuck in 'surface effect', and the feat was at very limits of endurance...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MacCready_Gossamer_Albatross
Proof of concept, yes, but utterly impracticable: Note we do not have competitive versions doing aerial equivalent of 'Tour de France'...

Regarding the LAB split: You've overlooked the essential techs to keep the whole mess running. See Reddit's 'Tales from Technical Support' aka 'TFTS' for enough salutary tales to curl your nose-hairs...
 
The fraction of people dealing with essential tech to keep everything running is lowering all the time: compare this era with one where the entire population has to undertake productive activities to survive, many of those activities being difficult as population reaches the carrying capacity of the environment. The development of technology combined with low fertility rates has lowered the fraction needed for productivity, resulting in a society that is absurd by standards of other eras.

Human wants may be infinite, but material goods reach diminishing returns quickly, and that is why marketing is amongst the most important sector, because there is simply weak organic demand for "pointless consumerism."

Human effort is instead driven to fulfill other wants, like social status: the respected and impressive and entry into exclusive social circles (now more important as the average social circle decays due to lack of selection pressure). Only aspergery weirdos still care about useless level of widgets production. Why not direct that at effort at improving credentials for offspring~ clearly the most important task for a modern
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Humanity under modern conditions is undergoing rapid evolution, and if civilization doesn't collapse within a few generations we'd be seeing a population with significantly different mental make up to reflect the selection pressure. The current humans are too focused on sex and status selection to pump it out at optimal rate, especially with the fubar social information environment from global scale media.

On the other hand, general AI is a potential technology that can get solved with a few generations (pessimistic projection has it within my lifetime!) , which will kill productive employment forever. Now people can adapt to that, non-productive elites have commonly existed in complex societies, but elite over production for a entire society is asking for strife.

And then there is human genetic engineering, proof of concept already done and only need regulatory and financial environment to proceed to practical application. The only respite is that currently no major polity is seeking to blow up human society with this. God knows how selection pressure works here~

There can only be drastic shifts in values in the near future. The future "sentients" will certainly think of moderns are horrible, as older members can already attest. Well, the rate of change isn't slowing down and the decedents and there decedents are all gonna consider all previous generations are horrid, in ways that often can not be imagined by the predecessors. And yes everyone reading this, you are all horrible, the time line mere just haven't reached the point where this is evident yet!
 
Though I wanted to study electronics, my math just wasn't good enough: loved it, but I'd a 'glass ceiling' at 'mild calculus', so did chemistry. Spent my career in Pharma QA/QC. Went from mostly-manual testing of 'stuff' to mostly-wrangling the modular auto-analysers and robots which tested such. Our through-put quality & quantity soared and soared, punctuated by yet-another terrible 'graunch' as a robot came to grief...

The more developed the system, the more spectacular ways Dire Lord Murphy finds to go horribly, expensively wrong. Robots, service contracts and spares / consumables cost almost as much as the lab-assistants they replaced, had similar reliability...

Calibration / traceability ?? I became our 'Mr Fixit', segued into lab-support. Found so many ways to replace hugely expensive contract calibrations with simple but effective local tests that I was a 'profit centre' in my own right. Most had been 'effin obvious', just took a little lateral thinking plus much 'Common Sense', tech-flavour. But, always, days were punctuated by various flavours of 'graunch' as yet-another robot came to grief...

I don't often 'Kipple', but I must refer you to 'The Sons of Martha'...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sons_of_Marthahttps://www.bartleby.com/71/0216.html
Stay safe, beware self-driving cars' wonky AIs...
 
shin_getter said:
The fraction of people dealing with essential tech to keep everything running is lowering all the time: compare this era with one where the entire population has to undertake productive activities to survive, many of those activities being difficult as population reaches the carrying capacity of the environment. The development of technology combined with low fertility rates has lowered the fraction needed for productivity, resulting in a society that is absurd by standards of other eras.

Human wants may be infinite, but material goods reach diminishing returns quickly, and that is why marketing is amongst the most important sector, because there is simply weak organic demand for "pointless consumerism."

Human effort is instead driven to fulfill other wants, like social status: the respected and impressive and entry into exclusive social circles (now more important as the average social circle decays due to lack of selection pressure). Only aspergery weirdos still care about useless level of widgets production. Why not direct that at effort at improving credentials for offspring~ clearly the most important task for a modern
-----------------
Humanity under modern conditions is undergoing rapid evolution, and if civilization doesn't collapse within a few generations we'd be seeing a population with significantly different mental make up to reflect the selection pressure. The current humans are too focused on sex and status selection to pump it out at optimal rate, especially with the fubar social information environment from global scale media.

On the other hand, general AI is a potential technology that can get solved with a few generations (pessimistic projection has it within my lifetime!) , which will kill productive employment forever. Now people can adapt to that, non-productive elites have commonly existed in complex societies, but elite over production for a entire society is asking for strife.

And then there is human genetic engineering, proof of concept already done and only need regulatory and financial environment to proceed to practical application. The only respite is that currently no major polity is seeking to blow up human society with this. God knows how selection pressure works here~

There can only be drastic shifts in values in the near future. The future "sentients" will certainly think of moderns are horrible, as older members can already attest. Well, the rate of change isn't slowing down and the decedents and there decedents are all gonna consider all previous generations are horrid, in ways that often can not be imagined by the predecessors. And yes everyone reading this, you are all horrible, the time line mere just haven't reached the point where this is evident yet!
Click to expand...
I think I'm going to choose cryonization, if in fifty years they need someone to kill a mouse they will thaw me.
 

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The future went up against reality I'm afraid. That and the human condition. Men like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and even the Chinese Legalists are far closer to the money than every optimistic political philosopher combined.

To be honest, the possibility of reality taking both Battletech and a future-history setting that I'm working on and running with it as it did Stand on Zanzibar is really troubling...
 
The 1960s were full of promises
Like Jet packs, flying Cars, monorails, VTOLS, Dome Cities and Deep space exploration and Colonies in Space...

What happened ? feasibility, Cost and Politics !

Jet Packs work well but are limited do propellant amount.
On flying Cars we don't have working serial model, while we still scrap crashed prototypes from runway.
VTOLS nice idea but half the payload and double cost on maintain, the Airlines decline the offer.
Special after 1973 oil crisis, as kerosine price skyrocket, making SST useless...
Monorail are expensive to build, streetcar are cheaper, while subway are better to reach destination by underground,
Compare to overground track of the Monorail, limiting them to theme parks and World fairs...
The Space race impede because the Soviet were unable to land cosmonaut on Moon and remain in Low Earth orbit.
And US politic not care, were busy with Vietnam War, cold War, internal power struggle in Capitol Hill.
Allot good projects died do Politics or do high cost...

But history feature men who are able to change everything
Like Gerard Henry Ford who gave us the affordable Automobil
or Steven Jobs who change computer and communication forever with iPhone
and there is Elon Musk who start to reuse Launch rocket and mass produce Electric cars
Experiment mit Neuronal interface, A.I. Tech and want to build robots, and revolutionised Tunnel Drilling...

Since 2015 reuse SpaceX it rockets, while big competitions are undeceive how to proceed (hey Blue Origin, ULA need it engine !)
While other like Rocketlab begin reuse of launcher
Same for Car Industry, complain about Tesla, but not offer alternative or competitive model.

Its sign of the times, who lacklustre the world is become.
This is a environment, we're Elon Musk thrive, the only thing that can stop him is Politic and their bureaucracy...
 
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Putin is doing an incredible job to prevent his country from falling into chaos, if the fragmentation of the USSR had continued, no one knows what the final fate of thousands of nuclear warheads, biological weapons and elite soldiers looking for work would have been. He is not doing the right thing, from the cynical Western point of view, he does what is necessary, including quite theatrical interventions to maintain his leadership.:(
 
shin_getter said:
Fusion is one of those things that require input from another field of study to work.

In this case, superconductors. Get better superconductors and the whole thing could get wrapped up in a hurry, without it, it is like trying to build human powered flying machines: even if you could, it wouldn't have much practical use.

“The World of 1971”
Some of the predictions for 1971:

2) The “middle class” would be working high-paying skilled jobs and would make up 80% of the population
Click to expand...
Definitionally impossible. Income level that covers 80% of the population is by definition working class and not "middle" class.

Many countries have gone through rapid economic growth, especially in asia, that resulted in real income growth of multiple times over a life time.

You know what, people are still pooooooor man, because rich people's income grew faster~

There is no technological solution to zero sum competition. As other problems get solved by technology, zero sum competition is what will increasingly drive human behavior.

We'll be transition to a 100% lawyer-activist-bureaucrat society sooooon~ No machine could replace the proper righteous anger of a snowflake~
Click to expand...
Fusion
 

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GruntFox said:
The future went up against reality I'm afraid. That and the human condition. Men like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and even the Chinese Legalists are far closer to the money than every optimistic political philosopher combined.

To be honest, the possibility of reality taking both Battletech and a future-history setting that I'm working on and running with it as it did Stand on Zanzibar is really troubling...
Click to expand...
Future stories about overpopulation have already gone out of fashion, it will be better not to give ideas to virus creators.
 
It seems we will take a bigger hit than they will. Genius level economics when our defence industry could do with some good news too. This a the long game with classic military strategy and the Ukrainians fell for it just like we all did. Pin your enemy, encircle them and destroy them at your leisure when the head has been lopped off. I agree that this is a continuation of the Clausewitz doctrine. War is politics by any other means and the foggier the better. What is next in this trilogy is going to be the kicker. Taiwan anyone? I am quite certain that there is a pact at work to undermine the rest of us between at least Russia and the PRC. No, no evidence I can point to but my gut tells me there is more to this.

Why is it that standard tactics used since way back when, have been so effective? Perhaps Mulder and Scully should be on the case.

I am talking tactics here btw.
 
Justo Miranda said:
GruntFox said:
The future went up against reality I'm afraid. That and the human condition. Men like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and even the Chinese Legalists are far closer to the money than every optimistic political philosopher combined.

To be honest, the possibility of reality taking both Battletech and a future-history setting that I'm working on and running with it as it did Stand on Zanzibar is really troubling...
Click to expand...
Future stories about overpopulation have already gone out of fashion, it will be better not to give ideas to virus creators.
Click to expand...
They already have, hence why things like privacy are slowly getting dragged in back and given the shotgun retirement treatment.
Foo Fighter said:
It seems we will take a bigger hit than they will. Genius level economics when our defence industry could do with some good news too. This a the long game with classic military strategy and the Ukrainians fell for it just like we all did. Pin your enemy, encircle them and destroy them at your leisure when the head has been lopped off. I agree that this is a continuation of the Clausewitz doctrine. War is politics by any other means and the foggier the better. What is next in this trilogy is going to be the kicker. Taiwan anyone? I am quite certain that there is a pact at work to undermine the rest of us between at least Russia and the PRC. No, no evidence I can point to but my gut tells me there is more to this.

Why is it that standard tactics used since way back when, have been so effective? Perhaps Mulder and Scully should be on the case.

I am talking tactics here btw.
Click to expand...
Here's the thing, China has far too much to lose if its bestest besties with Russia. Their entire economy is reliant on the export markets and if they do anything, they know they'll have an economic holocaust that would kickstart an inter-dynastic period, now with nukes. Hell, China hates Russia despite what people say about the two. They're more of waiting until they can give Russia the backstab treatment and retake Siberia than screwing with the West.
 
and yet, if the PRC egg on the Russians, abstaining from UN votes and allowing the current tactics to continue they can sit back while the west and Russia weaken each other and then take Taiwan and Siberia. Setting the groundwork for military strikes has happened in Georgia and the Ukraine so the real winners will be the PRC in the long run. What is the status of the opposing forces on the eastern borders, Russia and and the PRC? What IS the balance of military equipment on those two sides?
 
GruntFox said:
The future went up against reality I'm afraid. That and the human condition. Men like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and even the Chinese Legalists are far closer to the money than every optimistic political philosopher combined.

To be honest, the possibility of reality taking both Battletech and a future-history setting that I'm working on and running with it as it did Stand on Zanzibar is really troubling...
Click to expand...

You might want to have a read of John Brunner's 'The Jagged Orbit'...
 
Foo Fighter said:
and yet, if the PRC egg on the Russians, abstaining from UN votes and allowing the current tactics to continue they can sit back while the west and Russia weaken each other and then take Taiwan and Siberia. Setting the groundwork for military strikes has happened in Georgia and the Ukraine so the real winners will be the PRC in the long run. What is the status of the opposing forces on the eastern borders, Russia and and the PRC? What IS the balance of military equipment on those two sides?
Click to expand...
That won't be the case, for the moment that the PRC tries to take Taiwan a few decades early, they will quickly find that they've got a completely crashed economy sooner than later. The PLAN isn't capable of breaking the blockade the USN can do due to the PLAN's lack of blue-water assets.
Graham1973 said:
GruntFox said:
The future went up against reality I'm afraid. That and the human condition. Men like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and even the Chinese Legalists are far closer to the money than every optimistic political philosopher combined.

To be honest, the possibility of reality taking both Battletech and a future-history setting that I'm working on and running with it as it did Stand on Zanzibar is really troubling...
Click to expand...

You might want to have a read of John Brunner's 'The Jagged Orbit'...
Click to expand...
Never heard of it...
 

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